The LEAF's exceedingly slow rollout

[LakeLeaf]

So far the Oppama factory has made 12k Leafs, since December.. definitely not a fast rollout. We dont know if its a supply constraint or just Nissan being prudent with new tech, but the Smyrna and Sutterland plants will benefit from the Oppama experience. My guess is that the batteries are the bottleneck, so far they have made 324MWh worth of lithium-ion batteries, it would take a large nuclear plant to fast charge all of them at the same time.

My recollection, which could be flawed, is that the numbers of LEAFs being produced in Oppama continues to be well below what Nissan projected the factory would be producing be this point in time. Nissan talked quite a bit about the production capacity for LEAFs at that plant, as well as many discussions here.

If this plant is unable to produce the cars in the projected volume - will that also translate into Smyrna and Sutterland not being able to produce at the numbers that have been projected for them? If not - what is so different at these plants and will the Oppama plant eventually start to meet it's stated targets? (questions or ponderings directed at the masses of course, not specifically to Herm)

 

[tps]

My recollection, which could be flawed, is that the numbers of LEAFs being produced in Oppama continues to be well below what Nissan projected the factory would be producing be this point in time.

Nissan's projected output was 50K/yr at Oppama, or 4K/mo. Right now, judging by sales figures, they seem to be at roughly 2K/mo. This translates into 2X as long a wait for those of us who have a reservation but are still waiting for the chance to order.

 

[Herm]

Did they achieve the 4k/month production rate in July and August? or earlier?

 

[tps]

Did they achieve the 4k/month production rate in July and August? or earlier?

Hard to tell exactly what the production rate is, but I'm assuming it somewhat tracks the sales rate, since there doesn't seem to be a big stockpile of LEAFs. Worldwide sales broke the 2K mark in Feb and June, but otherwise has fallen short of that. Judging by the Feb sales, Oppama ramped up to their current level of production early on, which is apparently somewhat less than 1.5K/mo. For whatever reason, it appears they've never ramped it the rest of the way to the projected 4K/mo. It would be interesting to understand what caused this big of an error in Nissan's estimate so we'd have a better idea of the future impact on Oppama as well as Smyrna and Sunderland.

 

[Yanquetino]

There was one sentence that caught my attention in a recent article, "30-minute Leaf chargers soon will trickle into TN" in The Tennessean:

The vehicle will be available nationwide in March.

I doubt that this statement is accurate, but... those of us at the very end of the line can only hope!

 

[Herm]

For whatever reason, it appears they've never ramped it the rest of the way to the projected 4K/mo. It would be interesting to understand what caused this big of an error in Nissan's estimate so we'd have a better idea of the future impact on Oppama as well as Smyrna and Sunderland.

Perhaps its the expense of making Leafs in Japan with the way the Yen exchange is, it may be an intentional delay on Nissan's part. Here is Nissan's CEO talking about limiting car production in Japan:

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/09/carlos-ghosn-the-yen-is-abnormal-and-we-won" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;’t-live-much-longer-with-that-deviant/

 

[dgpcolorado]

It's still a ways off, but this morning a Nissan rep told me that once the Smyrna plant gets going the production reserved for the US would be about 75,000 cars a year and the rest would be for export to other countries. He said the battery plant would have a capacity of about 200,000 packs a year, which I think is the number I've read elsewhere. I didn't ask when these production numbers will be achieved.

A year and a half from now, supplies of the Leaf may no longer be limited. (My worry: once the early adopter market is saturated they won't sell well. I hope that isn't the case.)

 

[Volusiano]

My worry: once the early adopter market is saturated they won't sell well. I hope that isn't the case.

It all depends on what the price point is going to be a few years from now, once the $7500 tax credit runs out on it.

 

[charlie1300]

Let's get back to the basics - Nissan makes money selling cars - intentionally reducing production when there is a waiting list makes no economic sense. Even if the Yen exchange rate is unfavorable, it still is in Nissan's best interest to push the product in the USA in order to prime the market for the Smyrna plant output. I have to believe that Nissan is producing what they can in Oppama. It appears that they were very close to 4k/month just before the earthquake in March. The impact of the earthquake on Japan in general and Nissan in particular is been vastly underestimated or even ignored here, just because the Oppama plant was not physically impacted. Besides all the suppliers that were affected, the entire country has permanently lost something over 15% of their electrical generating capacity. Factories have been forces to operate on rotating schedules to spread out their draw on the grid. I can't find anything specific to Nissan or the Oppama plant, but one has to assume they are impacted.
On a brighter note, wave 3 orders are imminent. My dashboard has opened for the home assessment. Called CS to get the waiver, which will be completed by Sept 29th. Asked if authorization to RAQ will be the next week, response was "hopefully".

 

[tps]

On a brighter note, wave 3 orders are imminent. My dashboard has opened for the home assessment. Called CS to get the waiver, which will be completed by Sept 29th. Asked if authorization to RAQ will be the next week, response was "hopefully".

I've already asked them to enable the waiver for me (I've already got a modified Nissan/Panasonic EVSE), even though it will likely be well into November or even December before my dashboard opens(wave 4). Right now my plan is to sit tight and until my dashboard opens, but it may be tempting to go for a Maryland orphan, which may come along somewhere around the time I'm allowed to RAQ.

 

[Herm]

Let's get back to the basics - Nissan makes money selling cars - intentionally reducing production when there is a waiting list makes no economic sense. Even if the Yen exchange rate is unfavorable, it still is in Nissan's best interest to push the product in the USA in order to prime the market for the Smyrna plant output.

Perhaps, but if Nissan is taking much higher losses in the US than they expected maybe they may give priority to other markets (Europe?, home market?) with more favorable profits/losses.. until the Smyrna plant opens. Are there delays buying a Leaf in Japan or not?. Its a 15% change in the exchange rates in just a few months... it probably takes selling 3 profitable Nissan cars to just compensate for those losses on one Leaf, my guess. Maybe the auto world is used to these kinds of things.

 

[tps]

Any word about Tier 3 ordering? Nissan's stated plan has been "this fall", with Tier 4 (which is where I am) "before the end of the year". I've waited over a year since reserving, I guess ordering in another 2+ months won't be so bad. As early as last April I had the opportunity to drive the Hertz rental LEAF in NYC, then again in July, and that LEAF driving time is what's helped me keep my enthusiasm about owning a LEAF. Right now, I have no definite plans to rent it again, but it's great knowing that I could rent it again if I wish to have another brief taste of the LEAF driving experience. It may be very tempting to go down to Maryland to buy one of the orphans which are sure to show up about the same time I'll be allowed to place my order...

 

[dgpcolorado]

Any word about Tier 3 ordering? Nissan's stated plan has been "this fall", with Tier 4 (which is where I am) "before the end of the year". I've waited over a year since reserving, I guess ordering in another 2+ months won't be so bad. As early as last April I had the opportunity to drive the Hertz rental LEAF in NYC, then again in July, and that LEAF driving time is what's helped me keep my enthusiasm about owning a LEAF. Right now, I have no definite plans to rent it again, but it's great knowing that I could rent it again if I wish to have another brief taste of the LEAF driving experience. It may be very tempting to go down to Maryland to buy one of the orphans which are sure to show up about the same time I'll be allowed to place my order...

I don't know if it helps, but in Colorado, a Tier 3 state, ordering began this morning.