lorenfb said:
Yes, but the applications must be cost-effective overall.
Of course, but this application provides significant margin to allow for profitable entry into the space.
lorenfb said:
Additionally, it's naive to assume that no truck manufacturer has considered what Tesla has recently proposed for its semi.
Considered? And dismissed because they are making too much money selling diesel trucks?
lorenfb said:
There's nothing strategic about the potential of Tesla producing a semi,...
Right...
lorenfb said:
...i.e. the technology is widely known and available to all,...
Oh, yeah, I see BEV semi trucks EVERYWHERE. :roll: And I saw some 600-kWh batteries down at Lowe's the other day.
lorenfb said:
...there's no key barrier to entry,...
Tell me, if "the technology is widely known and available to all" and "there's no key barrier to entry", then why aren't these things everywhere? The answer is simple: This is new technology AND there are massive barriers to entry. Speaking of massive barriers to entry, your next sentence reads:
lorenfb said:
...there's no key eco-system that Tesla can leverage like the SC infrastructure for consumer vehicles, etc.
Within the same sentence you claim there is "no key barrier to entry" and then you name a massive key barrier to entry: lack of charging infrastructure. And guess what: Tesla didn't "leverage" the SuperCharger infrastructure - they BUILT it. They did that to knock down a massive barrier to entry for their products. Because of that, Tesla is UNIQUELY positioned to build the MegaCharger network that is needed to refuel electric trucks. Feel free to post information about any other semi-truck manufacturer who is designing Li-ion battery chargers at rates above 1 MW. That would require very specialized expertise that those companies do not possess.
lorenfb said:
Furthermore, Tesla still must rely on Panasonic for battery technology and for production know-how after all the years having produced the MS & MX.
In other words, Tesla is light-years ahead of all other semi-truck manufacturers because they are working out the manufacturing processes needed to build batteries in high volumes for their semi trucks. In addition, Tesla has retained the inventor of the NMC Li-battery chemistry, Dr. Jeff Dahn, to work to improve the durability of the batteries they build.
In the first year of his five-year contract, he DOUBLED the life of their batteries.
lorenfb said:
Again, the same problems today that exist with BEVs and limit their adoption, i.e. charging times & infrastructure, also are major obstacles for a battery powered semi.
Oh, look! More barriers to entry. In fact, charging infrastructure was the EXACT subject of
a post I made just a couple posts above the one to which you are responding. Again, Tesla has a history of identifying barriers to entry and knocking them down. They are already focused on both of the ones you just mentioned and are discussing what they are doing in public. Frankly, their approach of using the same modular charging building block in both their cars and their SuperCharger infrastructure is a stroke of genius.
lorenfb said:
Really? Tesla is not even profitable now producing a relatively low volume high-end luxury vehicles where the annual volume is even greater than for a semi.
No they are not profitable. And Elon Musk ALWAYS operates on the ragged edge. Tesla may go bankrupt before this truck can get manufactured. I don't know.
What I do know is that Elon Musk is working to disrupt an industry which has not changed in many decades. He has just shown the world the way forward in heavy trucking. His proposal threatens the livelihoods of the members of the biggest labor union in the country. They WILL fight back against any attempt to automate the trucking industry. So there are political as well as technological barriers to entry of automated trucks.
Since you brought up the issue of addressable market for semi trucks, lets have a look. There are
approximately two million tractor-trailers operating in the U.S. today. Nearly 10% of these trucks are replaced each year. The global market is likely 10X the size of the U.S. market, if not more. So the addressable market is perhaps 2 million semi trucks each year. I'm sure Tesla would be happy to claim less than 5% of this market.
And my numbers are only for semi trucks. There are many more commercial trucks which can be electrified and the driver eliminated. Who will do it? Tesla? I don't know, but it will happen.