Here is what will happen: a handful of Republicans will say that they can't support the Senate bill as written. The bill will be changed just enough for them to vote Yes, and the bill will pass. Then the House and Senate bills will go to the Conference Committee for reconciliation, where a final bill will be negotiated that both houses can support. Now, show of virtual hands: how many people here think that the committee will decide to keep the EV tax credit? Keep in mind that this committee will be Republican-controlled, and that there is no real reason the credit couldn't be dropped in the final Senate version, leaving two bills to be reconciled, with the credit being eliminated in both versions...
The only way the credit will continue, IMO, is if the Senate can't pass a budget bill. This seems much less likely, because they can change the bill as needed to get the necessary votes.