Random thoughts about range

[Bicster]

There's nothing new here, so I'm starting a new thread. :twisted:

GM claims a 40-mile EV range for the Volt. Their engineers seem able to actually attain that figure on a regular basis. I don't know if GM uses LA-4 or not; Google couldn't answer that quickly enough so I stopped looking.

Anyway, let's say the Volt goes 40 miles on 8 kWh "in real life." Using the same numbers, it's plausible that the Leaf could manage 120 miles on 24 kWh... Both cars are expected to weigh around 3,500 lbs. Actually, some recent speculation has the Volt closer to 3,900 lbs. (I'm betting the Volt is a lot more than 3,500.)

The Mini-E has an LA-4 range of 150 miles on 28 kWh. The real life range of the Mini-E is closer to 100 miles. At 3,230 lbs, the E has a weight advantage. It has a lot more drag (Cd = 0.35) which would particularly impact freeway range.

Both the Mini-E and Volt have much higher motor output - around 150kW... there's some range-sapping potential there, if you lack discipline.

Putting all this together tells me that the Leaf ought to have little trouble getting a "real" 100 mile range, and it might even have close to 100 miles after 10 years.

I can always hope.

 

[mwalsh]

That would be nice!

 

[adric22]

As I've said before.. For me, I'd be happy with a 40-mile real-world range. I'm quite sure I'll get more than that with the Leaf, even on the highway. So I'm not concerned.

I wonder if there is a chance that Nissan might make a Leaf with less range, so it could be sold even cheaper? If they had a version that did half the range but cost several thousand less, I'd probably have gone for that one instead.

 

[planet4ever]

Anyway, let's say the Volt goes 40 miles on 8 kWh "in real life." Using the same numbers, it's plausible that the Leaf could manage 120 miles on 24 kWh.

Ah, there's that old debate again. Is this an apples and oranges comparison? GM says the Volt has a 16kWh battery of which they are only using 8kWh. Nissan talks about a 24kWh battery, but doesn't seem to have come clean as to whether that is the total capacity or the usable capacity. If 24kWh is the total capacity, then maybe you should be comparing something like 20kWh, not 24kWh, with the Volt's 8kWh. That would drop your 120 down to 100.

But I'm hoping (dreaming?) that you are right, and 24kWh is what is usable. See this post: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=321&start=16 and others around it as the basis for my optimism.

 

[mwalsh]

But I'm hoping (dreaming?) that you are right, and 24kWh is what is usable. See this post: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=321&start=16 and others round it as the basis for my optimism.

My optimism stems from this dash we keep seeing that would seem to indicate 134 miles total range. I mean, I do know it's a non-functional or semi-functional display, but why even suggest that kind of range in the first place.

 

[Bicster]

The Mini E battery is 573 lbs for 35kWh "total" .. the Leaf battery is ~ 600 lbs, right?

Not to mention, the Mini E battery is using laptop cells and has forced air cooling, so I would expect it to weigh more for a given capacity.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

even if i could regularly confirm 100 miles of range, i would not go more than 80-85 anyway unless i was plugging in somewhere. now that EV's are hitting the highway so to speak, we should have plug in options galore within 2 years. i am hoping for new regs requiring employers to provide at the very least a percentage of 110 volt charging spots.

hey, i work 10 hours, so sure i will slow charge it for 10 hours. that would give me more than 50 miles of range back in, like i would need that much. i would never take a job that required me to drive that far one way, especially in this area.

where i live, going north 30 miles is an hour commute. i might go 40 miles south or west since neither of those directions has any traffic (no jobs either!!)

 

[Bicster]

I just learned that the Mini E has run flat tires (Continental ContiProContact SSR). They're not exactly known for low rolling resistance. That probably gives the Mini E a 5-10% range disadvantage.

If I can't go 100 miles in this car, I'll be fine with that, too. But I tend to keep my cars a very long time. I have a 17 year old car in my garage right now. 70 miles of range in 10 years will be OK if I can actually hit 70 miles. But if it works out to only 50 miles of real-world range or less, that does change the value proposition somewhat.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I just learned that the Mini E has run flat tires (Continental ContiProContact SSR). They're not exactly known for low rolling resistance. That probably gives the Mini E a 5-10% range disadvantage.

If I can't go 100 miles in this car, I'll be fine with that, too. But I tend to keep my cars a very long time. I have a 17 year old car in my garage right now. 70 miles of range in 10 years will be OK if I can actually hit 70 miles. But if it works out to only 50 miles of real-world range or less, that does change the value proposition somewhat.

so u think that in 10 years of real world EV users, many of which have tendancy to do whatever they can to improve range and performance, that no one will have come up with a better solution??

ok, so if eestor never materializes, we do know that there dozens of energy storage alternatives that are being developed right now. one of them will work. i personally think that several of them will work in niche capacities.

battery packs designed to do fast charging, but less cycles, other packs designed for very long life, but charges slowly. do i see a point in time where an EV owner would own both or be able to lease a pack based on his immediate needs??

oh ya. definitely. there is another thread here that discusses the apparent lack of jobs that Nissan will be creating. granted, less than 2000 people will be employed directly by Nissan, but this is the beginning (or re-beginning) of a major major major watershed event.

life as we know it will be greatly affected by this change. new ways to capitalize on this change WILL HAPPEN, and i doubt that no one today can fully guess as to what changes will take place

 

[Bicster]

so u think that in 10 years of real world EV users, many of which have tendancy to do whatever they can to improve range and performance, that no one will have come up with a better solution??

For a 10-year old (or older) Leaf? No. Sure, new EVs will be a lot better - lighter, cheaper, more range, less degradation over time, and then some. But in 2021, almost nobody is going to be putting a new pack in their 2011 Leaf. Even if a new pack is $4,000 by then, that's probably about the blue book value of the entire car. That's one reason I'm hopeful that we have 100 miles of real, useful range from the beginning.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

so u think that in 10 years of real world EV users, many of which have tendancy to do whatever they can to improve range and performance, that no one will have come up with a better solution??

For a 10-year old (or older) Leaf? No. Sure, new EVs will be a lot better - lighter, cheaper, more range, less degradation over time, and then some. But in 2021, almost nobody is going to be putting a new pack in their 2011 Leaf. Even if a new pack is $4,000 by then, that's probably about the blue book value of the entire car. That's one reason I'm hopeful that we have 100 miles of real, useful range from the beginning.

well u might be right, but i am betting that there will be many options available and ones that would not require another $30,000 purchase

 

[evnow]

If I can't go 100 miles in this car, I'll be fine with that, too. But I tend to keep my cars a very long time. I have a 17 year old car in my garage right now. 70 miles of range in 10 years will be OK if I can actually hit 70 miles. But if it works out to only 50 miles of real-world range or less, that does change the value proposition somewhat.

That is the primary reason some of us are looking at leasing. This is a V1 product in an industry at the cusp of major innovations. Nissan is already talking about 200 mile range in their next version (2013 ?) ..

But in 2021, almost nobody is going to be putting a new pack in their 2011 Leaf. Even if a new pack is $4,000 by then, that's probably about the blue book value of the entire car.

But $4,000 is not the replacement cost. I'd put a $4000 battery that gives me 200 mile range in 2020 - if the new car with that range costs $25K.

 

[mwalsh]

I keep my cars in really good shape and generally do hold them for around 10 years, eventually letting them go when they become a liability when it comes to maintenance and repair (sometimes even keeping them going when logic would normally dictate that I shouldn't).

If my EV was still good after 10 years, except for a degraded battery pack, especially if I had been otherwise really happy with it, I would not hesitate to install a new battery pack to keep it going.

 

[Bicster]

That is the primary reason some of us are looking at leasing. This is a V1 product in an industry at the cusp of major innovations. Nissan is already talking about 200 mile range in their next version (2013 ?) ..

I have a strong suspicion that Nissan would rather bring costs down than increase range, but I suppose it boils down to whatever helps them sell more cars. Perhaps range is the answer. 200 miles in 2013? Slim chance. Major innovations will probably take a while, because Nissan has no competition. Did you see the Ford EV article on gm-volt.com today?

I thought about leasing, but with two small kids, I worry about the potential of getting dinged hard for excessive wear and tear when the lease is up. How will the fabric hold up? Leather is a lot better for careless children. Plus, buying will have about the same payment (for my situation), for a slightly longer term, plus the ability to trade in at any time. Finally, in Texas, I'd have to pay taxes on the full MSRP of the car, which is not how it works in 48 other states. (IL is the other exception.) The only real advantage I can come up with for a lease would be not having to wait for my $7500 tax credit.

But I really expect to keep this car for a long time. As long as it's reliable, and still has useful range 10 years from now, why not? Cars are such a waste of money. I'm already violating my rule of going from one car payment right into another one (to get the Leaf.)

 

[evnow]

I have a strong suspicion that Nissan would rather bring costs down than increase range, but I suppose it boils down to whatever helps them sell more cars. Perhaps range is the answer. 200 miles in 2013? Slim chance. Major innovations will probably take a while, because Nissan has no competition. Did you see the Ford EV article on gm-volt.com today?

I was also sceptical at first - and I thought Nissan would just rather just reduce cost. But it appears in official minutes of Puget Sound Regional Council that is in charge of getting infrastructure ready in Seattle area.

But I really expect to keep this car for a long time. As long as it's reliable, and still has useful range 10 years from now, why not? Cars are such a waste of money. I'm already violating my rule of going from one car payment right into another one (to get the Leaf.)

Early adopters will always pay a price ... I went through more than 10 HDTVs/Projectors in the last 10 years.

 

[Bicster]

I was also sceptical at first - and I thought Nissan would just rather just reduce cost. But it appears in official minutes of Puget Sound Regional Council that is in charge of getting infrastructure ready in Seattle area.

Nissan has been saying they want to double the range of the Leaf, but they don't have the tech to do it and don't know when they will. I think 2013 is early for 200 miles of range. It would require cell densities to double. They can't just throw in another 600 lb battery pack, and if they did, even that wouldn't double the range. They could drastically reduce weight, but that can't happen until the next re-design, at the earliest.

Perhaps their commercial delivery van will have a 200 mile range? That could make sense.

Early adopters will always pay a price .

Isn't that the truth! :lol:

I guess most of us here are early-adopter types.

 

[evnow]

I was also sceptical at first - and I thought Nissan would just rather just reduce cost. But it appears in official minutes of Puget Sound Regional Council that is in charge of getting infrastructure ready in Seattle area.

Nissan has been saying they want to double the range of the Leaf, but they don't have the tech to do it and don't know when they will.

You apparently didn't read what I wrote. If they don't have the technology they wouldn't be telling they do officially to PSRC.

The way commercialization of technology works - the battery that we will get in 2011 Leaf is probably the one they commerialized in 2007 or so. In 2013/14, they would be using the battery they are commerializing now. Even GM now has a better battery they will be using from next year.

I expect two models of Leaf - one with 100 mile range and the other with 200 ... with may be $5K difference in price ?

 

[Bicster]

You apparently didn't read what I wrote. If they don't have the technology they wouldn't be telling they do officially to PSRC.

No need to be defensive. We're all speculating here. I did read it, but I don't believe it is going to happen. This is all I can find about a 200 mile range from PSRC:

d. Nissan’s Global EV Strategy: Battery ranges will increase in next generation. Future vehicles will have longer ranges—up to 200 miles.

The timeframe for "next generation" but it would be generally accepted to be 3-5 years, so the next-generation Leaf will probably be due for model year 2014-2016. The first generation Prius was around for 5 years. They did not say whether this would be the Leaf or their Infiniti vehicle or the delivery van. And most importantly, "longer ranges—up to 200 miles" is not the same as "200-mile range."

The Leaf battery density is said to be 140wh/kg. There is nothing on the horizon at 280wh/kg that is automotive grade, and practically nothing that is consumer-electronics grade -- which is a stepping stone of sorts.

Also... It's not as if we haven't heard conflicting reports about a lot of things from Nissan...

Longer range EVs are inevitable, but I don't think they'll be common in the Leaf's price range for a long while, unless significant new subsidies appear.

 

[evnow]

No need to be defensive. We're all speculating here.

I'm fine if you accept this statement of yours - stated as fact - is indeed speculation "but they don't have the tech to do it and don't know when they will."

The Leaf battery density is said to be 140wh/kg. There is nothing on the horizon at 280wh/kg that is automotive grade, and practically nothing that is consumer-electronics grade -- which is a stepping stone of sorts.

Till now consumer-electronics was the main research area with automative as an after thought. Not true anymore.

edit : All the higher range doesn't have to come from better ED. It can come from simple cost reduction (assuming same priced car).

 

[Bicster]

I'm fine if you accept this statement of your - stated as fact - is speculation "but they don't have the tech to do it and don't know when they will."

I'm sure Nissan has said that; I haven't found the source yet but I'll post it when I find it.

Till now consumer-electronics was the main research area with automative as an after thought. Not true anymore.

I agree with your statement, but I don't see how that gives automotive battery chemistries any advantage. CE-type Li-Ion chemistries will likely always offer a capacity advantage over automotive chemistries. To begin with, they don't need to last as long. That gives engineers the ability to stretch them in a number of ways that wouldn't work for automotive applications. Higher DoD, more exotic materials, greater cost/watt -- are all no problem for CE Li-Ion designs where the cells are small and disposable. The automotive environment adds restrictions and doesn't impart any advantages for batteries, except possibly for scale.

I hope that EEStor, or something equally game-changing (Li-Air?), manages to disrupt the status quo in the next 10-20 years.