Official Tesla Model S thread

[Ready2plugin]

This just hit the wire.....at least one analyst sees EV's doing well.


Tesla Surges as Morgan Stanley Says Electric Cars Will Gain (1)
2011-03-31 15:31:35.756 GMT

By Craig Trudell
March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Tesla Motors Inc. rose the most in more than four months after a Morgan Stanley analyst said the unprofitable electric-car maker will benefit from a shift away from internal-combustion engines.
Tesla surged $4.52, or 19 percent, to $28.23 at 11:09 a.m.
New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading. The shares earlier climbed as much as 20 percent, the biggest intraday gain since Nov. 10.
Electric vehicles may rise to 5.5 percent of global sales by 2020 and more than 15 percent of deliveries by 2025, Adam Jonas, a Morgan Stanley analyst based in New York, wrote in a note today. Tesla, which makes the $109,000 Roadster and will begin selling the lower-priced Model S sedan next year, may sell 500,000 vehicles by 2025, Jonas said.
“Tesla has a viable opportunity to be a significant volume player in the global auto industry,” Jonas wrote. “The transformation from California startup to global auto player may require well more than a decade to achieve -- not unlike the genesis of many of today’s established automotive companies.”
Jonas upgraded the company’s rating to “overweight” from “equal-weight” and said the shares may rise to $70.
Morgan Stanley’s expectations for electric-vehicle demand may be “a stretch,” Mike Omotoso, senior manager of the global powertrain section of consultant J.D. Power & Associates, said in an interview. Electric vehicles will make up 2 percent of the global market by 2020, J.D. Power estimates.

Tesla’s Obstacles

“The obstacles are high up-front costs of the vehicle, the limited driving range, and the lack of infrastructure,” said Omotoso, who’s based in Troy, Michigan. “All those obstacles are going to take 10 years or more to overcome, and there are a lot of other alternatives consumers have to reduce gas consumption.”
Morgan Stanley’s Jonas called Tesla “a highly speculative investment” due to the risks of slow electric vehicle adoption, model-introduction delays and balance sheet “difficulties.”
Tesla, which is backed by Daimler AG and Toyota Motor Corp., may need to raise additional capital because liquidity could fall to $146 million by the end of 2013, Jonas wrote.
“Will Tesla run out of money?” he wrote. “We don’t think so. But there’s also not much room for error.”
Tesla, based in Palo Alto, California, in February said its fourth-quarter net loss widened to $51.4 million from $24.2 million a year earlier as it increased investment in the Model S sedan, its next all-electric model that will start at about $57,400. The Model S will be profitable even on the base model, J.B. Straubel, Tesla’s chief technology officer, said March 17.
Tesla posted revenue of $116.7 million for 2010 and has said sales may increase to $160 million to $175 million this year. Morgan Stanley’s Jonas wrote that revenue may climb to
$9.5 billion by 2020 with a 3.6 percent share of the global electric vehicle market by that time.

 

[TomT]

I think MS's rosy outlook is more to inflate stock price than it is a legitimate prediction.

 

[BlueSL]

It seems like they are going to need one heck of a lot of cool factor to ride out the deluge of EV products. Won't Tesla need some disruptive technology to beat Nissan, Ford and GM?

Heaven help them when BMW debuts an EV.

 

[palmermd]

They are not competing with Nissan, Ford or GM any more than BMW and Mercedes are with ICE cars...different customer base. I'd take a Model S over the 1 series EV BMW has been touting and even if they made a 5 series which is closer in spec, I still think the Tesla drivetrain is WAY ahead of whats being tested in the Mini. They've got a big head start and they are marketing to the right group to keep the volume down and still make some sort of profit.

 

[SteveInSeattle]

Google and read their Annual report filed with the SEC, they have many, many pages of risks associated with investing and after reading it completely I am convinced there is way too much that can go wrong. The two biggest risks are inability to raise enough money (especially if they are forced to refund the $5,000 deposits if they are ruled a violation of California State law) and the biggest risk is the most likely risk factor, that a major company that has a distribution and production network develops a competing car. What chance do they have if AUDI or BMW, or Mercedes makes something competitive top the Model S? And, think about it, are these companies likely to stand by and let Tesla just have this market to themselves? The auto industry is far too competative. The other companies can absorb far more development costs and early losses since the have ICE cars to offset those costs.

Early investors thought they had some super proprietary patented technology and invested on that basis.. but how valuable can their patents be when Nissan can produce the Leaf? What could they possibly have that is really that beneficial? The Leaf proves the flaw in Tesla's business plan. All Nissan needs to do is throw the Leaf technology and some extra batteries into a G37 Coupe body, or something similar, offer it for 55K and they have ten times more dealers from day one. Plus when Nissan offers an eight year warranty you are pretty sure they will be there in 2020.

As you can see I have pretty strong feelings on this-- it just makes no sense to me that people are buying their stock at this stage.

 

[TRONZ]

The company that owns the EV market will be investing heavily in battery production facilities and putting these batteries in cool, affordable, mass produced car(s). So far, this is Nissan and the Leaf (+ the three other Nissan EV's currently in the pipeline). I like Tesla but they need to do more then just string together thousands of cell phone batteries to make a pack. Until they come up with a higher tech battery and the facilities to produce it, Tesla will be on shaky ground.

When it comes to electric cars, the batteries are EVERYTHING!!! Car companies can ignore this fact at their peril!

 

[Beachcliffs]

Once rebranded as Lexus Model S, I am a likely buyer (at the right price).

 

[palmermd]

What about an Aston Martin EV?

Aston Martin Rapide

Tesla Model S

 

[TRONZ]

Yes. Teslas seem to have a very Anglo flavor.

 

[evnow]

Went to the Tesla S roadshow today. Looks large in person. Because of that (and the small space available at the Tesla showroom), Model S wasn't as gorgeous as in the photos. As I've mentioned earlier, it is 196 inches long. 20 inches longer than Leaf and 7 inches longer than a Camry.

 

[derkraut]

The company that owns the EV market will be investing heavily in battery production facilities and putting these batteries in cool, affordable, mass produced car(s). So far, this is Nissan and the Leaf (+ the three other Nissan EV's currently in the pipeline). I like Tesla but they need to do more then just string together thousands of cell phone batteries to make a pack. Until they come up with a higher tech battery and the facilities to produce it, Tesla will be on shaky ground.

When it comes to electric cars, the batteries are EVERYTHING!!! Car companies can ignore this fact at their peril!

Right on, TRONZ....Batteries are, by far, the major component/cost in an EV.

 

[reeler]

When it comes to electric cars, the batteries are EVERYTHING!!! Car companies can ignore this fact at their peril!

Tesla uses commodity bateries to benefit from economies of scale. Cheaper storage with more road testing. Proprietary solutions may catch up at some point, but maybe not. With the most expensive thing about these cars being the battery, their approach may be the one that ultimately wins. It certainly is cheaper in the short term.

I put a deposit down on a Model S.

 

[evnow]

Tesla uses commodity bateries to benefit from economies of scale. Cheaper storage with more road testing. Proprietary solutions may catch up at some point, but maybe not. With the most expensive thing about these cars being the battery, their approach may be the one that ultimately wins. It certainly is cheaper in the short term.

Tesla is doing what they can - they don't have the resources to build their own battery technology. They compensate for the cheap consumer batteries with expensive thermal management ...

 

[patrick0101]

Here are my photos from the Tesla Model S tour

More Photos

 

[arnon]

I too saw Model S 'Alpha' on Monday, last day in Seattle before the car went to Vancuver BC. I cancelled my reservation after found out about $49K -160 miles range. $79K - 300 miles. And I'm not to thrill about 17" screen either (gets old quick). No test drive until Beta version comes out in October.
There will be more electric luxury sedan built. I can certianly wait for it.

Leaf makes so much more sense.

 

[palmermd]

I had not seen this image before laying out the plan for the Model S platform. I knew they planned on the crossover car based on the same platform, but I did not know about the cabrio or the van.

 

[reeler]

For Colorado, I need a Leaf with a cold weather package and a little more range would be nice. I need to be able to drive the 45 miles from downtown Denver to Breckenridge, which is 65 mph and uphill. I don't think the Leaf will do that on a cold day with a single charge.

For now, I'll leave my my $5K with Tesla waiting for a Model S.

 

[Spies]

I need to be able to drive the 45 miles from downtown Denver to Breckenridge, which is 65 mph and uphill. I don't think the Leaf will do that on a cold day with a single charge.

You mean one way right? Once people start taking delivery of cold weather package Leaf and using it in colder climates we would certainly have a better idea. I think it would make it by using cabin and battery preheat right before the journey. Reducing the speed of the journey below 65, even by a couple of miles, can certainly help too.

 

[evnow]

For Colorado, I need a Leaf with a cold weather package and a little more range would be nice. I need to be able to drive the 45 miles from downtown Denver to Breckenridge, which is 65 mph and uphill. I don't think the Leaf will do that on a cold day with a single charge.

No - you won't get 90 miles at 65 mph and heater. Infact, you will get less than 70 miles.

 

[reeler]

At 65 MPH, I was getting a range of between 60-70 miles in San Diego, which is generally flat, but has a many little canyons as you travel the freeways. In winter in Colorado, an 45 mile one-way commute uphill with the heater running at the 65 MPH speed limit might be cutting it close.

Maybe I could make it without passengers and the heater not running and going a little slower, but I would rather have more range to use a Leaf for that drive.

Does anyone know if the Leaf will have an option for more battery? The trunk well has plenty of room for a second battery. As an option, it could be an response to Tesla's range options. Frankly, the Leaf is more my style with the Tesla being too flashy.