Rebel44 said:
based on both data from Tesla and experience of people I talked to, who recently bought one, Model S reliability is now pretty good.
What data from Tesla? Looking at my April 2016 issue of Consumer Reports, the '12 and '15 Model S have much worse than average reliability while the '13 is worse than average and '14 is average. Their predicted reliability is worse than average.
Off the top of my head, I don't know how many responses there were for the data that went into the above but http://www.consumerreports.org/cars/tesla-reliability-doesnt-match-its-high-performance/ from Oct 2015 says "we received about 1,400 survey responses from Model S". That seems a lot better (as in more data points) than anecdotal data from what's likely a FAR smaller sample size.
Drive units still continue to develop noise, often within 20K miles and get replaced. D (AWD) models seem to have some more complete failures than the RWD models of late. When there were only RWD models, DU failure (as in, car completely loses propulsion) seemed rare.
Here's just a tiny fraction of issues I have in my notes, mostly DU that I sent someone else recently.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/56512-Model-S-had-to-be-towed-home/page9?p=1262812&viewfull=1#post1262812
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/56512-Model-S-had-to-be-towed-home/page8?p=1223072&viewfull=1#post1223072
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/47465-Battery-coolant-heater-failure
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/56589-Pointless-door-handle-wear/page3?p=1339038&viewfull=1#post1339038
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/61016-P85D-Rear-Drive-Unit-failure?p=1333070&viewfull=1#post1333070
- D is recent since that's AWD and not an early build
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/61016-P85D-Rear-Drive-Unit-failure
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/46047-Drive-Unit-failure-symptoms-and-thresholds-for-replacement/page10?p=1302441&viewfull=1#post1302441
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/55755-Drive-unit-3-(-Shudder-from-stop-restart-vehicle-to-continue-driving/page2?p=1237055&viewfull=1#post1237055
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/55755-Drive-unit-3-(-Shudder-from-stop-restart-vehicle-to-continue-driving/page2?p=1241212&viewfull=1#post1241212
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/29834-Drive-Unit-Replacement-Poll/page45?p=1205441#post1205441
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/27853-That-very-loud-and-painful-clunk/page23?p=982829#post982829
These are older, and part of a mail I forwarded him...
Do also look at the repairs Edmunds incurred at
http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/wrap-up.html within 30K miles in 17 months.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/46047-Drive-Unit-failure-symptoms-and-thresholds-for-replacement?p=979865&viewfull=1#post979865
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/46047-Drive-Unit-failure-symptoms-and-thresholds-for-replacement/page6?p=981726&viewfull=1#post981726
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/46047-Drive-Unit-failure-symptoms-and-thresholds-for-replacement/page6?p=981890&viewfull=1#post981890
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/46047-Drive-Unit-failure-symptoms-and-thresholds-for-replacement/page6?p=982006&viewfull=1#post982006
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/53553-Resolved-My-P85-has-developed-the-milling-noise-and-Tesla-won-t-fix-it?p=1153157&viewfull=1#post1153157
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/50363-P85D-Front-Motor-Died
Drivetrain or motor replacement on Leafs is almost unheard of, despite them being on sale for longer than the Model S and despite there being many more Leafs in the wild than the S.