Nissan Ariya to be announced for the JDM July 15, 2020

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coleafrado said:
mtndrew1 said:
+ Liquid cooled battery, finally
+ CCS

Are you sure it's CCS? The charge connector I saw looked just like a CHAdeMO.
CHAdeMO for Japan, where the unveil was. Search https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/nissan-ariya-electric-suv-adopts-ccs-fast-charging/ for CCS.

As I said, seems like they'll have to support at least 3 standards, depending on which market they're selling in, just like the German automakers have been doing. Maybe it'll switch to ChaoJi eventually for Japan and China?
 
cwerdna said:
CHAdeMO for Japan, where the unveil was. Search https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/nissan-ariya-electric-suv-adopts-ccs-fast-charging/ for CCS.

As I said, seems like they'll have to support at least 3 standards, depending on which market they're selling in, just like the German automakers have been doing. Maybe it'll switch to ChaoJi eventually for Japan and China?

Oh, I see. I wonder what this might mean for CHAdeMO stations in general. They can't be completely removed and replaced by CCS, since there are so many Leafs still in use, but once Leaf production ends there won't be any new growth in the non-Tesla and non-CCS user base. :|

Aside, what an uninspiring presentation. The graphics were neat, obviously quite similar to the Leaf 2nd gen presentation, but everything else was awful. Did they write the scripts in Japanese and then translate them to English or something?
 
coleafrado said:
Oh, I see. I wonder what this might mean for CHAdeMO stations in general. They can't be completely removed and replaced by CCS, since there are so many Leafs still in use, but once Leaf production ends there won't be any new growth in the non-Tesla and non-CCS user base. :|
I agree it's not likely they'll be removed, for now but if a station breaks down to the point where the provider doesn't want to fix it, it's possible a dual standard station at a site might be replaced with CCS only, esp. if the site has multiple stations and there's still at least 1 CHAdeMO.

Years ago, the broken units at https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=405982#p405982 got removed and replaced.

Will be quite funny/interesting at Nissan dealers since many of them have the CHAdeMO only https://web.archive.org/web/20140323161510/http://nissanqc.com/.
 
Timing for the Ariya is late 2021 for the US best case, so likely really 2022 in any real volume. I do think they will ensure they still have the 7500 tax credit here for the first year of launch, as 40K to start vs. 32.500 to start before tax is a big difference.

Its a good question regarding Chademo. Funny enough, Tesla now becomes the biggest US user for Chademo once the Leaf is done (Can we assume its done after next year?).

For the next 2-3 years, I think Chademo is safe given the fleet of cars on the road with the adapter (and Tesla to help support). I think starting in 2023 Chademo support will then start to fall as cars age and new DC stations start opting for single handled stations.

I am curious to see if anyone aftermarket offerings for putting CCS on a Leaf (I know Muxsan was trying this as well). It would be nice if Nissan thought through an answer to this for its customers beyond just buying the new car, but I put that at doubtful.

Curious what happens to the Chademo consortium now. Certainly Chademo lives on in Japan, but does Chademo 3 get off the ground?

Do you think this will change XPeng and Lexus's decision to bring Chademo EVs to Europe as was planned for this year?
 
Yep, it only took them a decade to decide that everyone else was right about needing a battery TMS... Anything Nissan would be a very hard sell for me these days...
 
Its price and comfort. I couldn't get another longish range ev new for 23K plus tax. (Some places say Bolts can be had for similar, but when chatting with the dealer here, t didn't seem that close. Plus we didn't like the Bolt as much..pun intended).
 
I wonder if Nissan will change the Leaf to CCS for the 2021 model year. They’re already going to have a very hard time moving those cars and having a clearly dead quick charging connector isn’t going to help.

It’s Nissan though so they’ll probably just let the car die on the vine.
 
TomT said:
Yep, it only took them a decade to decide that everyone else was right about needing a battery TMS... Anything Nissan would be a very hard sell for me these days...
I'm not sold on the requirement for a TMS.

For an commuting and around town car, no TMS is cheaper, simpler, more reliable and safer.

Yet I seem to be a tiny minority on this issue. The bad example of the early Leafs along with FUD from Tesla fans have likely doomed the idea.
 
DougWantsALeaf said:
I hope this launch will let them bring down Leaf Prices to make it a little more competitive and reduce the discounts on the car. If base Leaf started at $24,900 and Leaf Plus at $29,900 they would pick up many more buyers.

Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida has made the "premium" EV market their focus, which means they intend to go head to head with Tesla and other luxury car competitors:

https://electrek.co/2019/12/04/nissan-shifts-ev-strategy-to-premium-vehicles-not-discount-cars-like-leaf/

Wishful thinking on their part, I really doubt consumers will pick Nissan EV offerings, like the Ariya, when the price is so close to other "premium" EVs like the Model Y...
 
Wishful thinking on their part, I really doubt consumers will pick Nissan EV offerings, like the Ariya, when the price is so close to other "premium" EVs like the Model Y...

Until Tesla starts building a Y variant that is comfortable instead of just fast, with heated steering wheel and compliant ride, many people will choose the Ariya instead.
 
WetEV said:
I'm not sold on the requirement for a TMS.

For an commuting and around town car, no TMS is cheaper, simpler, more reliable and safer.

Yet I seem to be a tiny minority on this issue. The bad example of the early Leafs along with FUD from Tesla fans have likely doomed the idea.

I wouldn't really call it FUD. It may be uneducated, but their thesis is essentially correct.

Thermal management comes in all shapes and sizes. Tesla's approach is considered the most risky, with fragile inter-cell cooling on thousands of cells, but LG and CATL's approaches are much more basic - they just embed refrigerated plates below and above each set of prismatic cells. Just like an off-the-shelf refrigerator - and even though refrigerators work at substantially higher pressures, when was the last time you experienced one leaking? I agree that there is added cost, but the benefit/cost ratio is so high that it can only be a value-add. There was a lot of concern that cooled packs would leak and cause fires - has a single case of coolant leakage leading to fire ever been identified?

This is the only one I can find, and it's from ten years ago. Not to mention that it's on a Volt that was explicitly already in a side-impact collision. https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/coolant-likely-cause-of-volt-fires-says-ap-source/

Contrast that risk with the guaranteed degradation damage inflicted on tens to hundreds of thousands of TMS-less Leafs. Having no TMS basically only works with a short-range EV because the odds of anyone using it on a roadtrip is miniscule. Expecting people to tolerate no TMS on a long-range EV is just asking too much. Especially in the land of the American road trip! :D

You can just do the math: if killing a car's battery with heat causes $5000 in damage, and has a 10% likelihood of happening over a ten year span without any thermal management, everything else equal you should be willing to pay up to $500 more for a car with a TMS. (The odds are WAY higher than that number for a Gen 1 or 2 Leaf.) Does that sound like a lot? The overall unit cost for a TMS in a Bolt or Kona has been estimated around $100 - all it takes is 15-25 kg of stamped aluminum and some plastic tubing. And maybe a $10 pump. All the programming and temperature adjustment stuff is software in the VCM -> marginal cost is zero.

Anecdotally, the long-run resale value of cars with proper TMS is higher. I get that this is a personal position for you, but it's really quite irrational.
 
LeftieBiker said:
Until Tesla starts building a Y variant that is comfortable instead of just fast, with heated steering wheel and compliant ride, many people will choose the Ariya instead.

Not sure on numbers but I do agree. Tesla does have some nice tech and is a fashionable brand but I don't care for it yet. i want a few buttons like volume and some climate buttons so you can learn them and feel them rather than looking at a touch screen or depending on alexa. Tesla also has some quality control issues they need to work on bumpers falling off https://insideevs.com/news/433643/video-tesla-model-3-rear-bumpers-fly-off/?fbclid=IwAR0Z-cXaB4LZay27N8D6D-EGd2S4Bb0I8RiEGzjuhTH1GkPi5DMFzP5sZAc, door handle issues oh and a steering wheel coming off https://www.motorbiscuit.com/report-steering-wheel-falls-off-tesla-car-while-driving/ Nissan as far as I know has better quality control and yes in the winter we like the heated steering wheel and seats. Some Teslas kinda site like a trans-am or something which is not comfortable a bit too low. As Tesla is fast and fashionable it will sell better and more power too them as I want more EVs on the road, I also want variety.
 
LeftieBiker said:
Until Tesla starts building a Y variant that is comfortable instead of just fast, with heated steering wheel and compliant ride, many people will choose the Ariya instead.

It's personal opinion, but when I took a Y for a test drive last month, I found it more comfortable than the Leaf. I had less than an hour with it and wasn't able to take it on any sort of rough road, but around town and on the freeway it felt rather luxurious. The seats felt both soft and supportive, and were certainly a step up from my Leaf.

What held me back from ordering one right then was the price, the lack of federal EV tax credit, the price being high enough that it also doesn't receive Washington's EV sales tax exemption, and the *very* low trade in value Tesla would give me for my Leaf SL+ ($20,000). So, price, price, price, price, and price.
 
LeftieBiker said:
Wishful thinking on their part, I really doubt consumers will pick Nissan EV offerings, like the Ariya, when the price is so close to other "premium" EVs like the Model Y...

Until Tesla starts building a Y variant that is comfortable instead of just fast, with heated steering wheel and compliant ride, many people will choose the Ariya instead.

Count me in.
 
coleafrado said:
..but LG and CATL's approaches are much more basic - they just embed refrigerated plates below and above each set of prismatic cells. Just like an off-the-shelf refrigerator - and even though refrigerators work at substantially higher pressures, when was the last time you experienced one leaking?..

Ironically a premium-grade LG refrigerator we bought lasted only 2.5 years after which refrigerant went out with a puff. Ok, no puff, but it did leak out just past the warranty. Very common issue if you search for it.
 
coleafrado said:
WetEV said:
I'm not sold on the requirement for a TMS.

For an commuting and around town car, no TMS is cheaper, simpler, more reliable and safer.

Yet I seem to be a tiny minority on this issue. The bad example of the early Leafs along with FUD from Tesla fans have likely doomed the idea.
The lithium-ion batteries are widely used for electric vehicles due to high energy density and long cycle life. Since the performance and life of lithium-ion batteries are very sensitive to temperature, it is important to maintain the proper temperature range. In this context, an effective battery thermal management system solution is discussed in this paper. This paper reviews the heat generation phenomena and critical thermal issues of lithium-ion batteries. Then various battery thermal management system studies are comprehensively reviewed and categorized according to thermal cycle options. The battery thermal management system with a vapor compression cycle includes cabin air cooling, second-loop liquid cooling and direct refrigerant two-phase cooling. The battery thermal management system without vapor compression cycle includes phase change material cooling, heat pipe cooling and thermoelectric element cooling. Each battery thermal management system is reviewed in terms of the maximum temperature and maximum temperature difference of the batteries and an effective BTMS that complements the disadvantages of each system is discussed. Lastly, a novel battery thermal management system is proposed to provide an effective thermal management solution for the high energy density lithium-ion batteries.
I wouldn't really call it FUD. It may be uneducated, but their thesis is essentially correct.

Thermal management comes in all shapes and sizes. Tesla's approach is considered the most risky, with fragile inter-cell cooling on thousands of cells, but LG and CATL's approaches are much more basic - they just embed refrigerated plates below and above each set of prismatic cells. Just like an off-the-shelf refrigerator - and even though refrigerators work at substantially higher pressures, when was the last time you experienced one leaking? I agree that there is added cost, but the benefit/cost ratio is so high that it can only be a value-add. There was a lot of concern that cooled packs would leak and cause fires - has a single case of coolant leakage leading to fire ever been identified?
FUD it is. Educated FUD, but still FUD, and still not correct.

Yes, multiple fires. Yes, often after accidents with physical damage to the pack. Hitting road debris. Damage to an passive pack isn't likely to result in a fire. Damage to a water cooled pack is likely to result in a fire. The good news of this is that the fires are often delayed. The bad news is that sometimes they are not.
screen-shot-2018-05-09-at-3-37-40-pm.jpg

coleafrado said:
Contrast that risk with the guaranteed degradation damage inflicted on tens to hundreds of thousands of TMS-less Leafs. Having no TMS basically only works with a short-range EV because the odds of anyone using it on a roadtrip is miniscule. Expecting people to tolerate no TMS on a long-range EV is just asking too much. Especially in the land of the American road trip! :D
Again, notice that I said "For an commuting and around town car". Not everyone does road trips, and not every car is likely to be a road tripper.
coleafrado said:
You can just do the math: if killing a car's battery with heat causes $5000 in damage, and has a 10% likelihood of happening over a ten year span without any thermal management, everything else equal you should be willing to pay up to $500 more for a car with a TMS. (The odds are WAY higher than that number for a Gen 1 or 2 Leaf.) Does that sound like a lot? The overall unit cost for a TMS in a Bolt or Kona has been estimated around $100 - all it takes is 15-25 kg of stamped aluminum and some plastic tubing. And maybe a $10 pump. All the programming and temperature adjustment stuff is software in the VCM -> marginal cost is zero.
That would be useful math if that was a useful model of the value and cost of a TMS. It isn't.

Start with a hot place, say Furnace Creek, CA. The TMS will have a setpoint temperature of say 30C or 35C, the air temperature will be as hot as 45C, and a passively cooled battery will be somewhat warmer. So realistically, the TMS battery will be as much 20C colder, so will last up to 4 times as long. Ok, but not that long as most of the year isn't that hot. Perhaps twice as long. Battery will be below 70% before the end of the warranty (say 8 years/100k miles). There is a significant value of a TMS in Furnace Creek. Average car lasts 12 years.

Move to cool coastal WA. Air temperature almost never exceeds the setpoint of the TMS. Like wise, battery temperature only rarely exceeds the setpoint, and usually by very little. Added battery life just about zero, might even be negative. Battery life will be 2 to 3 times the warranty life. Car is likely dead for other reasons before the battery hits warranty limits, and will be useful for about 5 times the battery warranty. Very few cars make it to 40 years with no major repairs.

Various people have modeled this, and drawn lines where TMS has the same cost as the cost of decrease in battery life of having a passive battery. Most of the population of the USA would be either clearly better off with no TMS or close to break even. Yes, is complex.

The cost of the TMS is also much higher than your estimate. A larger or separate AC cooling unit is needed to cool both the battery and the cabin. This isn't free. Add in reduction of range, added weight and added energy cost. Expansion tanks and redundant pumps. Radiators and wiring.


coleafrado said:
Anecdotally, the long-run resale value of cars with proper TMS is higher. I get that this is a personal position for you, but it's really quite irrational.
Resale value isn't very useful information, as there are lots of things that make up a car. Battery isn't the only issue.

It is personal because I don't like to see misinformation win. Happens too often.
 
WetEV said:
Start with a hot place, say Furnace Creek, CA. The TMS will have a setpoint temperature of say 30C or 35C, the air temperature will be as hot as 45C, and a passively cooled battery will be somewhat warmer. So realistically, the TMS battery will be as much 20C colder, so will last up to 4 times as long. Ok, but not that long as most of the year isn't that hot. Perhaps twice as long. Battery will be below 70% before the end of the warranty (say 8 years/100k miles). There is a significant value of a TMS in Furnace Creek. Average car lasts 12 years.
Re: "30 or 35 C", for reference, this is the observed behavior of Bolt's thermal management: https://www.chevybolt.org/threads/battery-conditioning.33279/#post-512173. When plugged in, apparently, the car cools the battery to 27 C (80.6 F).

One can also follow the battery temps (pink lines) at https://www.chevybolt.org/threads/best-charging-curve-ive-seen-yet-from-a-100kw-dcfc.32809#post-502129.

On my Bolt, I have definitely had TMS kick in while DC FCing, driving (can only tell by battery conditioning energy usage % on screen going above 0%) and upon returning home and plugging into L1 on a hot day/after DC FC earlier. I have also triggered TMS on Bolts at work that I plug into L2 on a hot day (say over 90 F (32 C) outside), even while inside our covered parking structure. It's very loud initially and can stay loud if DC FCing.

I do not live in a furnace area of CA but I am in a warmer part of Bay Area. Even San Jose is enough to cause 4 bar loss at 59996 miles before 5 years on an '11 Leaf: https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=20725.
 
coleafrado said:
WetEV said:
I'm not sold on the requirement for a TMS.

For an commuting and around town car, no TMS is cheaper, simpler, more reliable and safer.

Yet I seem to be a tiny minority on this issue. The bad example of the early Leafs along with FUD from Tesla fans have likely doomed the idea.

I wouldn't really call it FUD. It may be uneducated, but their thesis is essentially correct.

Thermal management comes in all shapes and sizes. Tesla's approach is considered the most risky, with fragile inter-cell cooling on thousands of cells, but LG and CATL's approaches are much more basic - they just embed refrigerated plates below and above each set of prismatic cells. Just like an off-the-shelf refrigerator - and even though refrigerators work at substantially higher pressures, when was the last time you experienced one leaking? I agree that there is added cost, but the benefit/cost ratio is so high that it can only be a value-add. There was a lot of concern that cooled packs would leak and cause fires - has a single case of coolant leakage leading to fire ever been identified?

This is the only one I can find, and it's from ten years ago. Not to mention that it's on a Volt that was explicitly already in a side-impact collision. https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/coolant-likely-cause-of-volt-fires-says-ap-source/

Contrast that risk with the guaranteed degradation damage inflicted on tens to hundreds of thousands of TMS-less Leafs. Having no TMS basically only works with a short-range EV because the odds of anyone using it on a roadtrip is miniscule. Expecting people to tolerate no TMS on a long-range EV is just asking too much. Especially in the land of the American road trip! :D

You can just do the math: if killing a car's battery with heat causes $5000 in damage, and has a 10% likelihood of happening over a ten year span without any thermal management, everything else equal you should be willing to pay up to $500 more for a car with a TMS. (The odds are WAY higher than that number for a Gen 1 or 2 Leaf.) Does that sound like a lot? The overall unit cost for a TMS in a Bolt or Kona has been estimated around $100 - all it takes is 15-25 kg of stamped aluminum and some plastic tubing. And maybe a $10 pump. All the programming and temperature adjustment stuff is software in the VCM -> marginal cost is zero.

Anecdotally, the long-run resale value of cars with proper TMS is higher. I get that this is a personal position for you, but it's really quite irrational.

:shock:
 
LeftieBiker said:
Wishful thinking on their part, I really doubt consumers will pick Nissan EV offerings, like the Ariya, when the price is so close to other "premium" EVs like the Model Y...

Until Tesla starts building a Y variant that is comfortable instead of just fast, with heated steering wheel and compliant ride, many people will choose the Ariya instead.

There's a lot to admire in the engineering of Tesla products, but I think that's lost on many Tesla buyers, who really just want a Tesla for the social status. There are a lot of pseudo-affluent people out there, who are willing to buy a car they can't afford to impress their friends, family, and neighbors.
 
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