Musk : What the world really needs is a great, affordable EV

[TonyWilliams]

Since it is a compliance car, I suspect that the current MY RAV4EV is the last one you will see for sometime unless California changes the rules in the future...

I suspect Toyota will introduce a in house designed EV (some tiny car like Spark/500 etc) for compliance ...

I suppose they could change strategy and sell the Scion IQ EV to the public.

Rumors are all over the place for Toyota for the 2015 model year CARB compliance. Some say they will use a hydrogen car, and of course, they could use the Scion IQ EV. Or, the more logical answer is to build a car that will actually sell, like a Camry EV.

Obviously, a huge company like Toyota is planning for all the contingencies, no doubt including an in-house EV. But, officially, they don't like EVs, and have tried their best to meet the ABSOLUTE minimum target with Rav4 EV (only sold in California, only for the 3 years in phase III [model years 2012, 2013, 2014], it's based on already phased out chassis, they spent little effort developing it except for a big fat check to Tesla, there's virtually no advertising, etc).

 

[lion]

Yea as long as you are in CA I followed up with my local Toyota dealer several times, and had to give up on my RAV4 EV plans because I couldn't count on them in case of major issues. That one stung :/

Well, for the record, my local Toyota dealer won't service it at all. I have to get it to an EV certified one that just happens to be not near me.

Also, there are already Rav4 EV's in Philly and New York state. Those folks went out and found Plug-In Prius certified dealers. As one guy said recently in your area, two of the dealers that he asked about the Rav4 EV in his area were a bit miffed at even being asked the question... their response; it's a Toyota, we have to service it.

About 10% of the Rav4 EV's have already been shipped out of state, by my estimate.

Yea I'm one of those posters on the RAV4 EV forums, plus I've chatted with the other guy in NY. My dealer is a Prius Plug-in certified dealer (actually had a Prius plug-in until I traded it in for a Leaf last week), but didn't want anything to do with the RAV4 EV. Thought for sure they would be 'proud' to have one in the area. The RAV4 EV is one heck of a car, and I've convinced several people to buy one.

Hopefully by the time the battery pack in my LEAF is losing its capacity, they'll offer one with more capacity using newer tech (or same capacity but at much better pricing). Then again, including inflation, Musk might not be that far off with his target pricing.

 

[ENIAC]

How easy (and inexpensive) is it to get EV-only parts for the Rav 4 EV -- now and in, say, the next 10 years?

The law requires they keep parts for 10 years. That's one of the MANY reasons why many compliance cars, like the early EV1 and Rav4 EV (Gen I), and the current Honda Fit EV are lease only. They can take them back and crush them all, and their liability for stockpiling parts is instantly eliminated.

No offense, but can you provide a pointer to that law? I hear that 10 year claim every now and then but I've never been able to actually located such a law -- federal or state. If the vehicle had a 10 year warranty, then under consumer protection they would obviously need spare parts to fulfill those requirements. I know there's a federal law regarding the production of emissions control parts, but that requirement was only for 8 years as I recall.

I've heard the same thing as you point out about the EV1 leasing that it was due to spare parts being required for 10 years. But I also read that rather than an actual law, it was more likely GM internal policy to produce spare parts for at least some minimal period of time.

 

[KeiJidosha]

...That's one of the MANY reasons why many compliance cars, like the early EV1 and Rav4 EV (Gen I), and the current Honda Fit EV are lease only. They can take them back and crush them all, and their liability for stockpiling parts is instantly eliminated.

In the hindsight of a battery breakthrough, this policy will seem visionary, as the value of sub 100 mile EVs will also be crushed.

 

[DanCar]

Looks like the $30k car has now slowly become a $40k car.

I think it
is the same car. One with government incentives and one without. One a 120 mile range car and the other a 200 mile range car.

 

[evnow]

Looks like the $30k car has now slowly become a $40k car.

I think it
is the same car. One with government incentives and one without. One a 120 mile range car and the other a 200 mile range car.

I don't think Musk ever mentioned a 120 mile car. In 4 years time who knows what will happen to the 7.5k credit ...

 

[Deleted member 8423]

No offense, but can you provide a pointer to that law? I hear that 10 year claim every now and then but I've never been able to actually located such a law -- federal or state.

Appears to be urban legend. http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/14049/are-auto-manufacturers-required-under-us-federal-law-to-provide-parts-for-a-set" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As far as the original post in the thread, there are still no solid plans, so I don't even think this rises to the level of vaporware or FUD yet. Check back in 2 years.

 

[TonyWilliams]

No offense, but can you provide a pointer to that law? I hear that 10 year claim every now and then but I've never been able to actually located such a law -- federal or state.

Well, I think you're probably right. It appears it was a "policy" at GM to provide parts for 10 years. Naturally, going bankrupt also put an end to that policy.

 

[DaveEV]

What the world really needs is a great, affordable battery. Manufacturers already have a decade of concepts awaiting it's arrival.

What Musk is saying is that they don't need to wait for that breakthrough battery. The usual 5 to 7% cost reduction per year we have been seeing is enough to make a $40k, 200 mile EV in 4 years.

Yeah, Tesla is expecting batteries to cost less than $100 / kWh in about 10 years:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/17213-Goldman-Sachs-Gen-III-SUV-Model-X-2015-from-Tesla-site" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Wish it were sooner!

 

[DanCar]

Looks like the $30k car has now slowly become a $40k car.

I think it is the same car. One with government incentives and one without. One a 120 mile range car and the other a 200 mile range car.

Correction: should have said 140.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/7347-UNOFFICIAL-Bluestar-Pricing-and-Options" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[evnow]

Correction: should have said 140.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/7347-UNOFFICIAL-Bluestar-Pricing-and-Options" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

140 is not official. Just speculation.

 

[GregH]

I find this whole discussion of 200 mile range EVs somewhat amusing..
As an engineer, the thought of spending a bunch of extra money (and vehicle weight) for something that is rarely used seems rather foolish.
If you had a car with X range there will always be that one trip you couldn't make because you needed X*1.2 range. If you really want to lug around dead weight for that occasional long trip, get a Volt.
I have to wonder, if you had the choice of getting your Leaf for $5000 less or getting the same car, same price but with say 20-25% more battery (a true 100 mile range car), which would you choose? Perhaps before you had your Leaf you might have opted for the more expensive 100 mile range car, but I'm guessing most Leaf drivers (in temperate climates) are satisfied with the range. Even for those who aren't, how much would you really be willing to pay to have a 200 mile range car over a 100 mile range car?
Also, if the Chademo map for the US looked anything like the map for Japan would you really need/want 200 miles?

 

[TEG]

...
Also, if the Chademo map for the US looked anything like the map for Japan would you really need/want 200 miles?

Yeah, quick charging helps solve range limitation issues. But rollout is much slower than hoped, so it isn't yet an answer to make all longer trips possible.

 

[evnow]

I find this whole discussion of 200 mile range EVs somewhat amusing..
As an engineer, the thought of spending a bunch of extra money (and vehicle weight) for something that is rarely used seems rather foolish.

Well, how many of us buy a single seater ?

If you had a car with X range there will always be that one trip you couldn't make because you needed X*1.2 range. If you really want to lug around dead weight for that occasional long trip, get a Volt.

But as the range increases, the % of trips for which you need a rental/ICE decreases - and as that happens more and more people switch from ICE to EV.

I have to wonder, if you had the choice of getting your Leaf for $5000 less or getting the same car, same price but with say 20-25% more battery (a true 100 mile range car), which would you choose? Perhaps before you had your Leaf you might have opted for the more expensive 100 mile range car, but I'm guessing most Leaf drivers (in temperate climates) are satisfied with the range. Even for those who aren't, how much would you really be willing to pay to have a 200 mile range car over a 100 mile range car?

$5k for a 5kWh battery is kind of extreme, given Tesla charges $10k for 25kWh. But, if there was a 200 mile range EV for let us say $7k more (or 150 mile EV for $5k more), a significant portion of Leafers would upgrade.

But, we aren't talking about a premium for extra miles. We are talking about double the miles for same price.

So, if we have in 2017,
Leaf S : 100 mile range, 20k after credits
Leaf SV : 150 mile range, 25k after credits
Leaf SL : 200 mile range, 30k after credits

you will see a significant % of people selecting SV over S, and many selecting SL.

Also, if the Chademo map for the US looked anything like the map for Japan would you really need/want 200 miles?

I'm afraid by the time we get a dense network of QCDC, we will also have a 200 mile Leaf for $30k.

 

[mitch672]

I'm afraid by the time we get a dense network of QCDC, we will also have a 200 mile Leaf for $30k.

In 2017 (or perhaps a bit earlier, hard to say now), Tesla will have their Gen3 200 mile+ car out, with a nationwide network of DC Fastchargers, Elon has the SuperCharger announcement tommorow at 10:30AM Pacific, we expect he will announce a much faster rollout, with increased power from 90KW to 120KW, this will all be in place before the first Gen3 car is released, and it's free for life. I honestly can't see buying any other car at that point, no other manufacturer provides free road trip fuel for life.

Sorry to say, game over Nissan (eventually its expected Tesla will license their SuperCharger access and pack / drivetrain technology to other mfrs, but not yet)

73 mile highway range cars that require 3 times as many DCFC stops, who will want them?

FYI: Tesla has about $700 million in cash from the recent offering ($500 from offering, and they had $200 already), so they have the resources to now pull this off, along with the will/plans

http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/is-a-cheaper-tesla-motors-inc-tsla-vehicle-coming-soon-151686/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Nubo]

I find this whole discussion of 200 mile range EVs somewhat amusing..
As an engineer, the thought of spending a bunch of extra money (and vehicle weight) for something that is rarely used seems rather foolish.
If you had a car with X range there will always be that one trip you couldn't make because you needed X*1.2 range. If you really want to lug around dead weight for that occasional long trip, get a Volt.
I have to wonder, if you had the choice of getting your Leaf for $5000 less or getting the same car, same price but with say 20-25% more battery (a true 100 mile range car), which would you choose? Perhaps before you had your Leaf you might have opted for the more expensive 100 mile range car, but I'm guessing most Leaf drivers (in temperate climates) are satisfied with the range. Even for those who aren't, how much would you really be willing to pay to have a 200 mile range car over a 100 mile range car?
Also, if the Chademo map for the US looked anything like the map for Japan would you really need/want 200 miles?

It might be enlightening to turn that question around a bit.

If battery cost, weight,size dropped to where a 200-mile pack fit, cost and weighed the equivalent of a current LEAF pack, would you opt for the 200-mile pack or would you want a stripped-down 75-mile version?

 

[Deleted member 8423]

Live from D11
http://live.theverge.com/tesla-motors-ceo-elon-musk-live-blog-d11/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

8:00:44 PM PDT
Elon: Step one was making the Tesla Roadster, high price, low volume. Then step two, high price, high volume. Then step three is low price, high volume. We're at step two.

8:00:59 PM PDT
Walt: When will there be a $30,000 Tesla?

8:01:06 PM PDT
Elon: Step three I'm expecting in three years.

8:02:24 PM PDT
Elon: The car will be 20 percent smaller than the Model S, and we'll have economies of scale.

<likely on charging/range>
8:06:34 PM PDT
Elon: Well, we have an announcement tomorrow.
[edit - he spilled the beans]

8:07:44 PM PDT
Elon: We have this thing called the Supercharger, we had to make this thing that was really quick to charge. What we were going to announce tomorrow is that there's going to be a dramatic acceleration of the Supercharger network. Tripling the area.

8:08:01 PM PDT
Elon: There's a map that'll go live tomorrow. People will, uh, be surprised to learn this tomorrow at Tesla.

 

[derkraut]

I find this whole discussion of 200 mile range EVs somewhat amusing..
As an engineer, the thought of spending a bunch of extra money (and vehicle weight) for something that is rarely used seems rather foolish.
If you had a car with X range there will always be that one trip you couldn't make because you needed X*1.2 range. If you really want to lug around dead weight for that occasional long trip, get a Volt.
I have to wonder, if you had the choice of getting your Leaf for $5000 less or getting the same car, same price but with say 20-25% more battery (a true 100 mile range car), which would you choose? Perhaps before you had your Leaf you might have opted for the more expensive 100 mile range car, but I'm guessing most Leaf drivers (in temperate climates) are satisfied with the range. Even for those who aren't, how much would you really be willing to pay to have a 200 mile range car over a 100 mile range car?
Also, if the Chademo map for the US looked anything like the map for Japan would you really need/want 200 miles?

+1
Good points GregH.

 

[evnow]

In 2017 (or perhaps a bit earlier, hard to say now), Tesla will have their Gen3 200 mile+ car out, with a nationwide network of DC Fastchargers...

Have you seen the Japanese QC network. One every 15x15 miles. To cover the US we need twenty thousand, not hundreds.

 

[Stoaty]

I find this whole discussion of 200 mile range EVs somewhat amusing..
As an engineer, the thought of spending a bunch of extra money (and vehicle weight) for something that is rarely used seems rather foolish.
If you had a car with X range there will always be that one trip you couldn't make because you needed X*1.2 range. If you really want to lug around dead weight for that occasional long trip, get a Volt.
I have to wonder, if you had the choice of getting your Leaf for $5000 less or getting the same car, same price but with say 20-25% more battery (a true 100 mile range car), which would you choose? Perhaps before you had your Leaf you might have opted for the more expensive 100 mile range car, but I'm guessing most Leaf drivers (in temperate climates) are satisfied with the range. Even for those who aren't, how much would you really be willing to pay to have a 200 mile range car over a 100 mile range car?

I partly agree with you, but the question really comes down to what is the sweet spot for a particular individual. The current Leaf range is pretty good for me, but may be less so in 4-5 years with the loss of range over time. A 150 mile range would make more trips easily doable, and give a buffer for range loss. More than that wouldn't be of much use for me, because I would still need a larger ICE vehicle for a few 400-600 mile round trips where I wouldn't be parked near a charger anyway (up in the Sierra at a trailhead for a week).