I'd originally begun this reply on March 10th, didn't finish it and then got very busy for the past month +, so finally getting it done.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
I don't see any point at cherry picking short term intervals out of a longer term trend.
One year is a definite change in trend.
No. Not true. Notice that BEVs gain relative to PhEVs from 2014 to 2015. Then lose to 2016. Then gain to 2017. Then lose to 2018. Then gain to 2019. These are not "changes in trend".
Then call it no trend, if you prefer.
WetEV said:
And frankly, if PHEVs were growing faster than BEVs, it wouldn't bother me in the slightest. PHEVs will require infrastructure like L1/L2 home, parking garage, workplace and other destination charging. Which BEVs will later need. PHEVs will start the phaseout of the neighborhood gas station, as most fueling will be for longer trips only. PHEVs will ramp up production of power semiconductors and lots of other components, needed for BEVs later.
There is an honest case to be made for PHEVs, now and perhaps very long term with PHEVs with bio/synthetic/hydrogen fuels. And for that matter, until BEV production has ramped up enough to supply everyone, there is an honest case for some to prefer an ICE or a hybrid. This is an improvement over hydrogen fuel cells, so I'm glad to see some progress has been made.
Make the honest case.
You just stated the case for PHEVs I've been making for years now, although BEVs are the ones that really need or benefit from L2. As I've pointed out, modest AER PHEVs only need L1; L2 is gravy. There's far more existing L1 circuits at homes and businesses than L2, and it's far more likely that you can add another one at a home if desired without having to upgrade the service entrance. So yeah, we've got to build the L1 and esp. L2 infrastructure for BEVs; PHEVs buy us time to do that. BTW, how is a PHEV with bio/syn/H2 an improvement over fuel cells, since I've been pointing out the potential advantages of PHEVs with all of these including PHFCEVs in the ultimate ZEV mix for a long time? Or are you talking about PHEVs using H2 in an ICE?
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
BEVs are just nicer to drive than PHEVs, HEVs and ICEs. Driver preference matters. Sure, there are some use cases for PHEVs.
Some BEVs are nicer to drive, but buyer preference obviously shows that most people still prefer to buy ICEs in one form or another.
BEVs were a niche car in the past, and still are now. The niche keeps doubling in size. "Most people" will not be there until the last doubling. Then BEVs will no longer be a niche. You seem to insist that BEVs need to be mainstream first. Which is backwards to reality. The niche must come first, and production/supply chain issues will prevent an instant replacement.
EVs have been a niche for 11 years now, and when have I ever suggested that BEVs must be an instant replacement? I've stated that the transition will be gradual. To you. Multiple times. They still haven't crossed the chasm from early adopters to the early majority. Judging from the number of news stories I'm seeing, if gas prices stay around where they are now we might finally be at that point, but oil prices hav3e already dropped significantly from their recent peak. We'll have to see if that continues, because financial advantages motivate far more people than ideology does.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Electric power is cheaper than gasoline. At home I'm paying about $1 per equivalent gallon (0.11 per kWh), and about $2.50 (0.31 kWh) for the infrequent fast charge. Based on 1 gallon of gas is about the same as 8 kWh. Energy in a gallon of gasoline is about 33 kWh, and the electric car is about 4 times more efficient.
Today's gas price was $4.546 (3/8/2022) average for Washington State.
https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=WA
Why would I buy a PHEV and pay almost twice as much for energy/fuel on road trips?
Electricity is certainly cheap for you, but then you have some of the cheapest electricity in the country thanks to lots of old hydro:
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/ Other locations (like mine) have different ratios.
I pay just about exactly the national average, and slightly more than the state average.
U.S. average retail price per kilowatthour is 10.59 cents
California pays an average of 18 cents per kWh, which is about $1.44 per gallon equivalent. Gas price has not been below that for the past 10 years for California.
Dan Jones mentioned what California's rates are in the major IOU areas. Here's an example of the actual rates people pay in the Bay Area in PG&E land, which also happens to be the U.S. metro area with the highest sales % for PEVs. I've previously pointed you to cwerdna's posts about his rates, but just to bring us all onto the same page, here's quoting his post from last September:
cwerdna
On my Bolt, I also DC FC sometimes at a dual-standard DC FC 5 miles from home in an area where I frequently pass which is 19 cents per kWh. That is cheaper than me charging at home.
I am on the SRP EV plan, so EV charging is 5.75 cents per kwh (as high as 6.14 cents, depending on the month) if I charge at home and use the car's timer correctly. Which i do
.
https://www.srpnet.com/prices/home/electricvehicle.aspx
At work, I can also solar charge for free.
We can only dream of rates that cheap in Pacific Gouge & Extort land. To try to keep this thread more on-topic, my reply's at viewtopic.php?p=610409#p610409.
Which links to
I'm currently on E-TOU-C (https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/ ... -TOU-C.pdf, see pages 2 and 4). Baseline is only 10.3 or 10.5 kWh per day for me, depending on the time of year so 309 or 315 kWh per 30 day billing period. In "summer" rates are from 28.1 to 42 cents per kWh, depending on time of day and if you're within baseline.
For rest of year, it's 30.5 to 32.2 cents per kWh. If you're within baseline for that billing period any time of year, you're credited back 7.5 cents per kWh. That's how they do tiering. So, the actual range for rest of year is 23 to 32.2 cents per kWh.
If I charge an EV at home for most/all of my EV usage, I for sure will be pushed into tier 2 and thus my marginal cost to charge at home would be at best 35.6 cents in "summer" and 30.5 cents per kWh rest of year.
There is an EV plan, EV2-A (https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/ ... 0(Sch).pdf). There's no tiering but rates range from 18.5 to 49.8 cents per kWh. See pages 2 and 4. Basically, electricity is only cheap between midnight to 3 pm. They really kill you from 4 to 9 pm and it's pretty bad from 3 pm to 4 pm and 9 pm to midnight. This is for every single day.
There's also "Customers at premises with total usage in excess of 800 percent of baseline over 12 months will be moved to Schedule E-TOU-D and will be prohibited from taking service on any electric vehicle rate schedule for 12 months."[/b]
No thanks. I'm working from home most days now due to COVID and being required to wear a mask indoors at all times at the office (except for actively eating and drinking) due to county ordinances. The EV2-A rates are crazy outside of off-peak.
Not exactly "$0.18/kWh" for home use when you get into the details, now is it? Or maybe you think cwerdna is against BEVs??
WetEV said:
GRA said:
Your needs are well suited for a BEV, because as you've told us your wife's personal endurance is only 1.5 to 2 hours, and from what you've said doesn't sound like you take multi-hundred let alone multi-thousand mile road trips.
So tell me, so why would I know the wife's range? As I've said before, we take a 200+ mile round trip monthly or more often to visit grandchildren. As I've said before, that's one stop on the way there and one stop and the way back. One of which needs to be a charging stop. For less time filling up than emptying.
Why would you know your wife's range? Why the hell wouldn't you, if you drive with her? She's your wife, not someone you only travel with once and then forget. Once again, if she's not along, what are your endurance limits? For those of us with longer endurance (mine's typically 4-5 hours bathroom, 5-6 hours food), for that trip all ICEs/HEVs could do the trip non-stop each way, and many of them could do the roundtrip unrefueled, which offers more convenience and flexibility. I don't have to stop, but can if I choose to when and where I want , with essentially no need to link my food stops with my fuel and/or bathroom stops lest I add considerable extra time to the trip. As I said, a BEV suits your stated needs, not (yet) mine or people with similar requirements. But 800V+ packs, solid-state and maybe other battery improvements are getting us closer. Or we can simply avoid the problem and go PHEV using some non-fossil-fuel form of energy from the 3 you mention above for the parts of the trip a battery is least suited to.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
Why would anyone buy a PHEV for road trips? Because it allows them to go anywhere they want, any route they want any time they want in any conditions, in the shortest possible time, with maximum flexibility, and without having to plan their trips around charging stops.
More true in the past, less true in the future.
Which is why fossil-fueled PHEVs are a transitional tech. See above.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
Current gas prices won't stay this high anymore than they did in 2008 (which is still the highest average U.S. price all-time, adjusted for inflation), so at some point in the probably not too distant future it will once again be cheaper to gas up on trips than it is to FC. After all, it's only been in the past month or so that the reverse has been the case
EA charges $0.31 per kWh in California (plus $4 per month). That works out to roughly $2.50 per equivalent gallon. Go look at that 10 year chart again. Sure, there have been times that EA was more expensive than gasoline nationwide average. But not in California. And not by long.
Most people drive most miles locally, so fast charging price is a minor part of the cost.
It's minor if you have convenient L1/2, which takes us back to the need to build that (and the current advantages of PHEVs). But in the meantime, we need urban FCs for all those that can't. I've been monitoring DCFC prices for years now, and (assuming that I was driving a high-mpg HEV rather than my Forester, and sometimes even in it), gas prices were cheaper than DCFCing on my trips. Of course, that $4 + $0.31/kWh only reaches parity with $0.43/kWh after you've taken 33.3 kWh (not a problem on road trips), and although it continues to decrease beyond that it never quite reaches $0.31/kWh. That also assumes that your route allows you to charge at EA stations, and that you'll be able to activate them. As I've mentioned, I was only able to do so for 1 out of 8 attempts on the trip I took with a Bolt, specifically to check the state of charging along my most common trip route. How about driving off-interstate on U.S. across Nevada, something I've done 4 times and will do more of? Want to charge in Ely, Nevada? $5.00 per session + $0.50/kWh. The nearest charger to the west is in Austin, 147 miles away, and charges $0.50/kWh, so from there eastward it's Ely or nothing.
Now, when gas prices peaked last month they were $2.00/gal. higher locally than they'd been the year before (and the highest in the country, as is normally the case). Prior to the recent spike, DCFCing hasn't been less expensive than buying gas if you were driving a high mpg HEV, and in many cases depending on the rate for charging at the particular charger, even my Forester getting its typical 28-30 mpg on trips was cheaper.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Yes, but like a horse that just sh!ts a little less, HEVs doesn't help that much with air pollution, and still drives like an ICE, except for short periods of time.
Yes, and that's what the majority of EV users are buying. So much for consumer preference. Obviously their preferences differ from yours and mine, but then MNL members are a self-selected minority.
The last is true, of course. You are among the last people, by use case, to rationally switch to an EV. I was among the first. Which brings up a long standing question. You are not the typical MNL member, but rather the other extreme.
Why are you here?
I've answered
that question several times here (including at least twice to cwerdna) and can't remember if I've ever answered it to you, but am tired of doing so in any case. Since you've been reading my posts for years you must have an opinion, so why don't you post why you think I'm here, and I'll post corrections as necessary and save the answer for the next time. BTW, I won't be among the last to switch - I'll be early majority because I'm ideologically motivated.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Yet PHEVs require more L1/L2 infrastructure faster. While a PHEV might used a quarter the battery of a BEV, and produce 50% electric miles, home charging would be needed for all of the PHEVs, assuming of course that they would actually be plugged in. HEVs would be better for those that can't plug in yet.
Of course HEVs are better for those who can't plug in, and who know that is unlikely to change in a useful period of time.
That is likely to change in the next decade. Oh, I'd guess you will still be holding out.
See above.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
PHEVs don't require any extra electric infrastructure, nor do they require home charging, but you can bet most people opting to buy one (who aren't motivated by bad incentives like automatic HOV lane access even when running on the ICE) instead of an HEV will have access to charging often enough to be worthwhile. As I said, electric when you can, gas when you want or have to.
Very few electric miles for those that don't have home and/or work place charging. Notice that the same charging infrastructure would provide for more electric miles with BEVs than with PHEVs.
The same
existing L1 infrastructure will allow for far more PHEV miles, because more people can afford the cars and have no need to upgrade electrical systems, even assuming they are allowed to do so (i.e. homeowners rather than renters).
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
This assumes a even bigger government hand forcing PHEVs over BEVs, as PHEVs are mostly currently subsidized and BEVs are most not, at the US Federal level. States are different, of course. A larger subsidy for PHEVs will be needed to overcome the driver preference for a BEV, or for that matter for an ICE.
As you know I'm against direct to consumer subsidies, as they distort the market whenever they prefer a particular tech. I want buyers to make financial decisions without the government's finger being so visibly on the scale.
You are OK with technologies that dump toxins into people's lungs?
Free dumping is a subsidy.
See any of my previous replies regarding the needs to fix incentives, require tight emissions standards and high fossil-fuel taxes such as California's (highest in the country), LCFS, cap and trade, etc.
