Forecast of USA Vehicles with plugs

[ydnas7]

large swings in EV/PHEV ratio

can't see the forrest for all the trees


growth is driven by localistion/mass production and new entrants

background primer http://www.intechopen.com/download/pdf/35183" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Could you please interpret that? I'm just not that smart.

Or is it only showing that we'll end up with about a 50/50 EV/PHEV ratio in a few years.

 

[EdmondLeaf]

Very ambitious for Leaf this year 70K so that will be about 6K/ mo. Wonder how this was predicted?

 

[Nubo]

Would you mind defining f, and F? Sorry I don't have time for the 118-page primer.

 

[ydnas7]

yes, it does indicate a rough 50/50 EV/PHEV ratio, but that ratio varies alot.

Very ambitious for Leaf this year 70K so that will be about 6K/ mo. Wonder how this was predicted?

simple, Volt factory had a 50-60k nameplate capacity in first year of mass capacity, but only reached about 40% of that. Localized LEAF has a nameplate capacity of 150k so take about 40% of that. In the scheme of things its not that important because LEAF is only one car in a growing parcel of cars. The next 3 months for LEAF will be low.

F is the percentage of the new car market that has a plug EV/PHEV (note i've used a nominal total new car market of 15million cars per year)
1-F is just that ie for F = 5% of market 1-0.5% = 95%
F/(1-F) is the key predicator, basically this is a straight line

this type of analysis is good for determining how quick a level of market share is reached or lost. But not for determining what the max level of market share will be, thats more of an input to this analysis.

I've severely slowed bent (slowed down) the rate post 2014 for 2 reasons, (rebates will expire, combo2 remains a zombie standard). If i hadn't slowed down the rate post 2014, the analysis would give an Elon type prediction of half the new cars being electric in a "It's probably going to be in the 12- to 15-year time frame" (nb Elon said fully electric)

simply put, the first 5% is hard to reach, if it takes 7 years to get to 5%, then only 10 more years to get to 50%

 

[ydnas7]

F is market share

F/(1-F) is a straight line

 

[TomT]

Someone was dreaming!

Very ambitious for Leaf this year 70K so that will be about 6K/ mo. Wonder how this was predicted?

 

[evnow]

Very ambitious for Leaf this year 70K so that will be about 6K/ mo. Wonder how this was predicted?

simple, Volt factory had a 50-60k nameplate capacity in first year of mass capacity, but only reached about 40% of that. Localized LEAF has a nameplate capacity of 150k so take about 40% of that. In the scheme of things its not that important because LEAF is only one car in a growing parcel of cars. The next 3 months for LEAF will be low.

Ghosn says Leaf sales will grow by 20% or about 12k in US this year. Not 70k.

 

[ydnas7]

As production ramps up, Nissan will ramp the discount for leasing (probably not sale though). The second half of the year could be very strong. Even without the Ca rebate, discount $3k of the lease price of LEAF S and lease it in California over 24 months
a; cheaper than most car's fuel
b; HOV lane access
eventually people will get that leasing the LEAF saves time and money.

But the point of graph was to try to analyse the future of Electrified vehicles using this first 5 year window.

Conclusion was plenty of chop and change on flavour of the year, but a very rapid substitution trend to plugs happening even though battery EVs will basically be limited to Nissan and Tesla.

a typical company to remember is Ford, their corporate attitude to EV is less than half hearted, but their PHEV (Energi) range is serious.

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
It seems like Nissan was already offering pretty good deals on '12 Leafs. I'm not sure how much further they can keep discounting (by giving cheap leases) and not take a bath.

Hope you realize that leases in CA under 36 months are ineligible for the $2.5K CVRP and the white HOV stickers are set to expire on 1/1/15 (http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/carpool/carpool.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false.

Take a look at http://www.choosenissan.com/san-francisco-oakland-san-jose-area/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. I see Altimas with $199/month for 36 months leases and Sentras for $169/month. At http://www.buyatoyota.com/Specials/SpecialOffers.aspx?&" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; w/a 95136 zip code, I see Prius leases for $239/mo @ 36 month, $199/mo for Prius c and 0% APR financing on PiP for a 36 month loan. Just like other ICEVs, none of these are range limited.

Can make selling/leasing a BEV pretty tough, wouldn't you say?

The "Coming Up Short" chart at http://www.caranddriver.com/features/the-spark-is-gone-whats-going-on-with-electric-cars-feature" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; shows a lot of competitors fighting for a small piece of the pie. But, I think Coda will go away before end of the year and probably Fisker too. It's unclear how well upcoming CA compliance cars will sell along w/BMW's offerings.

 

[ydnas7]

Hope you realize that leases in CA under 36 months are ineligible for the $2.5K CVRP and the white HOV stickers are set to expire on 1/1/15 (http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/carpool/carpool.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false.

absolutely, no $2.5K CVRP for the best deals.
HOV stickers, until the HOV lanes are full, they probably would extend HOV access for pure EVs

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

i see Nissan doing at least 1500 per month with a few months near 3000. I think 12,000 is a very low ball estimate but the slow rollout of the 2013's is not helping here. we are basically looking at a 10 month year here. but will got out on a limb and state 17,500 for the year

 

[adric22]

i see Nissan doing at least 1500 per month with a few months near 3000. I think 12,000 is a very low ball estimate but the slow rollout of the 2013's is not helping here. we are basically looking at a 10 month year here. but will got out on a limb and state 17,500 for the year

It doesn't help that they don't even know the EPA range yet. One of their reps on facebook said they were still waiting on the EPA for that number.

 

[Stanton]

It doesn't help that they don't even know the EPA range yet. One of their reps on facebook said they were still waiting on the EPA for that number.

Let's be honest though: if someone has decided to buy a (2013) Leaf, whether it has an EPA rating of 70/75/80 isn't going to change their mind.