Elon Musk

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I read Vance's biography of Musk a few years ago. A few highlights from memory, perhaps with minor errors:

Musk self taught himself BASIC when he was 11 or 12 years old, and within a year had written a game that he published in a hobby computer magazine. The game was bought by a game company and sold commercially.

After high school, he was accepted to U Penn where he obtained degrees in Economics and Physics in 4 years. He was then accepted to a PhD physics program at Stanford he started, and quit within days to instead start a business with his brother. Within a year he, programming alone, wrote a vector map program that displaced the bitmap electronic maps of the day (MapQuest, if memory serves.) The Musks sold that program for the better part of 50 million dollars.

Musk then, again I think working alone, wrote PayPal to leverage the new internet for financial institutions. He merged his company with Peter Thiel's payment system that expanded the reach of the software to individual peer to peer. The merged company was then sold to Ebay for hundreds of millions.

When Musk decided to found SpaceX, he sought out rocket scientists (that he later hired) and asked for a reading list. Per the estimate of those scientists working for him, Musk was able to learn about 90% of the material in 3 months and then collaborate in R&D.

----
Is Musk a genius ? Obviously. Anybody who thinks otherwise is an ignorant moron. To be clear, I use the Genius term as it is defined by IQ tests -- about 3 SD above the mean in a normal distribution. That works out to around the 99.7th percentile. My WAG is that Musk is more along the lines of 4 SD above the mean, or about the 99.99th percentile. Want some context for that ?

Anybody can be a LEAF owner, or an HR clerk.
About 1/50 can be a physician or an engineer
About 1/100 can be a physicist, and perhaps 1/300 can obtain a PhD in Physics
Musk is around 1/10,000. That makes him an extraordinary individual since it puts him at the top of a class of 30 PhD physicists. Few LEAF owners will ever have a chance to meet, let alone get to know, such a person. OTOH, in a population of 100M adults in the USA, there are around 10,000 people with Musk type abilities, each doing their thing. Some will stand out because their accomplishments affect a large section of the population. Others will stand out in the future when their accomplishments become useful are get recognized.

Is Musk an industrial titan, perhaps the greatest who has ever lived ? Probably, and certainly in a very, very select group of a few.
Is Musk a Nikola Tesla ? Not by achievement, but Musk took a different path and I don't think there is any way to compare those two..
Is Musk an Einstein ? I'd guess not.
 
My personal hope is that Musk sells Tesla to focus fully on SpaceX. He is pretty much humanity's sole hope currently for getting us to Mars with people in the next couple decades. I fully agree with his urgency, as we don't have hundreds of years to make it happen.

As to his genius..I don't know how close he is to the top of the IQ chart, but he has tremendous capacity for extreme focus, and understands the immense need for not just invention, but also industrialization. Very few in human history have done both well.
 
johnlocke said:
gcrouse said:
For simplicity sake - I'm going to just post a combined response.

"Only engineers can be geniuses, eh ?"

Nowhere was that said. While someone doesn't have to be an engineer to be a genius - Elon possesses neither of those qualities.

"Do you think that only engineers can have a science background ?"

That was once again stated nowhere. A Bachelor's degree in physics doesn't make someone an engineer. Let me put it this way - Neil deGrasse Tyson (who's arguably a genius in the field that Musk has a Bachelor's degree) has a science background. I don't want to ride on an airplane that Neil deGrasse Tyson was responsible for engineering. Do you?

"Do you think that a topic can only be learned in school ?"

No.


"You don't need an engineering degree to be an engineer."

You're right. I used to do recruitment and placement for engineers for the government. Here's the minimum qualifications that were part of determining whether or not someone was qualified for the job.

(https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/classification-qualifications/general-schedule-qualification-standards/0800/files/all-professional-engineering-positions-0800.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwj7vbKEovv1AhUnDzQIHW-cDL0QFnoECAQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1Vcp-hGNpgQTESJwed2bv1)

In fact, Musk could theoretically have completed the coursework required for meeting the basic degree requirements. Not surprisingly, all of the engineers that were doing the interviews always selected folks who had an engineering degree from an ABET accredited engineering program or were registered Professional Engineers.


"I doubt Thomas Edison had an electrical degree either."

Thomas Edison has over 1,000 patents registered in his name. - You can probably name some of them. I can guarantee you can't name any of Musk's inventions of the top of your head.

Musk has 6.

5 of which have a small enough number of people that it's clear he contributed something and those predate Tesla. The last one has 17 people listed - it's doubtful Musk is doing much other than providing some overall direction as a CEO. His fragile ego is likely a large part of why he's listed - keep in mind this is the guy who sued the founders of Tesla to be listed as a co-founder.

https://patents.justia.com/inventor/elon-musk

As you may be aware - times have changed since the late 1800s. For example, when I buy a plane ticket for an airline - i have expectations that the airplane i will be riding in wasn't built in someone's garage.

"A degree is just a shorthand way for an employer to check competency. Doesn't tell you about their actual skill."

You may consider me so advised. Although - AFAIK, I'm the only one of the three of us who's actually done recruitment and placement of engineers in any capacity.

What's entirely fascinating to me however that when faced with an assertion to the contrary of what you believe both of you were unable or unwilling to make a list of Musk's concrete accomplishments as an inventor - something that's not particularly hard since patents are a matter of public record. (https://www.uspto.gov/patents/search)

It's pretty telling when the most ardent supporters can't name a single invention and have to result to trying really, really hard to move the goalposts with arguing what engineers are and aren't in a bid to lower qualification standards.
OK, I get it that you don't like Elon. Perhaps he doesn't have any engineering skills. What he does have is several companies worth billions of dollars. If he has no engineering skills then he must have really good management skills and an uncanny ability to pick good engineers.. He's started two businesses that were based on ideas that couldn't possibly work according to the engineers of the day. Somehow Tesla and SpaceX succeeded anyway. By the way Elon has 18 patents, not 6.

Edison perfected the lightbulb but he bought the patent for it from someone else. Some of the patents held in his name were actually ideas from the engineers that worked for him. At one point, Tesla worked for Edison. Not saying Edison wasn't a genius but he didn't work alone either. Edison Labs was the first large scale industrial research company.

It's not really a matter or liking or disliking the man for me - but let's not muddy the waters on what he is or isn't.

Richard Branson has innovative companies as well - the difference is that a cult of personality doesn't exist there. I don't think Elon is an exceptional manager - but i will certainly concede he is an exceptional marketer - without Elon, Tesla couldn't have survived. That's indisputable. But let's also be very clear - Musk didn't start Tesla and the acquisition of SolarCity was a very questionable bailout.

I'll stipulate the possibility of 18 patents Musk that you've claimed uncited if you can stipulate that Waymo, Uber, and Cruise have more parents than Tesla does for autonomous vehicles.

Sure, people trade patents all the time - but Tesla's patent for deep learning and autonomous vehicles isn't very impressive once you read through it and compare it to other AI parents that Microsoft and IBM hold. Let's keep in mind that Microsoft and IBM aren't making claims of self driving cars and yet their patent applications are more compelling.
 
SageBrush said:
I read Vance's biography of Musk a few years ago. A few highlights from memory, perhaps with minor errors:

Musk self taught himself BASIC when he was 11 or 12 years old, and within a year had written a game that he published in a hobby computer magazine. The game was bought by a game company and sold commercially.

After high school, he was accepted to U Penn where he obtained degrees in Economics and Physics in 4 years. He was then accepted to a PhD physics program at Stanford he started, and quit within days to instead start a business with his brother. Within a year he, programming alone, wrote a vector map program that displaced the bitmap electronic maps of the day (MapQuest, if memory serves.) The Musks sold that program for the better part of 50 million dollars.

Musk then, again I think working alone, wrote PayPal to leverage the new internet for financial institutions. He merged his company with Peter Thiel's payment system that expanded the reach of the software to individual peer to peer. The merged company was then sold to Ebay for hundreds of millions.

When Musk decided to found SpaceX, he sought out rocket scientists (that he later hired) and asked for a reading list. Per the estimate of those scientists working for him, Musk was able to learn about 90% of the material in 3 months and then collaborate in R&D.

----
Is Musk a genius ? Obviously. Anybody who thinks otherwise is an ignorant moron. To be clear, I use the Genius term as it is defined by IQ tests -- about 3 SD above the mean in a normal distribution. That works out to around the 99.7th percentile. My WAG is that Musk is more along the lines of 4 SD above the mean, or about the 99.99th percentile. Want some context for that ?

Anybody can be a LEAF owner, or an HR clerk.
About 1/50 can be a physician or an engineer
About 1/100 can be a physicist, and perhaps 1/300 can obtain a PhD in Physics
Musk is around 1/10,000. That makes him an extraordinary individual since it puts him at the top of a class of 30 PhD physicists. Few LEAF owners will ever have a chance to meet, let alone get to know, such a person. OTOH, in a population of 100M adults in the USA, there are around 10,000 people with Musk type abilities, each doing their thing. Some will stand out because their accomplishments affect a large section of the population. Others will stand out in the future when their accomplishments become useful are get recognized.

Is Musk an industrial titan, perhaps the greatest who has ever lived ? Probably, and certainly in a very, very select group of a few.
Is Musk a Nikola Tesla ? Not by achievement, but Musk took a different path and I don't think there is any way to compare those two..
Is Musk an Einstein ? I'd guess not.

Citations and/or veritable qualifications regarding your qualifications to discuss the matters. One of us has taught radar theory to soldiers regarding surface to air missiles and it isn't you.

The forum doesn't need a pompous knob slobbering child trying to blend in at the adult's table. Until you move out of your parent's basement and purchase your own cars - move along now. The adults are talking, not the children.
 
SageBrush said:
Is Musk a genius ? Obviously. Anybody who thinks otherwise is an ignorant moron.
Musk is a genius at promotion. His relationship with the truth is not close. He leads a cult. Much beyond that isn't clear.
 
SageBrush said:
Musk then, again I think working alone, wrote PayPal to leverage the new internet for financial institutions. He merged his company with Peter Thiel's payment system
Close.

Musk started X.com, which was an online bank backed by the FDIC.
Thiel started Confinity, which as it's major product had the payment system Paypal.
X and Confinity merged and the merged company was rebranded Paypal.
 
Does it matter what Musk did yesterday?

Today's he seems to be steering Tesla in the wrong direction, focusing attention on robots and self driving (which is has been perpetually wrong on, and has little hope of gov approval) rather than the CORE mission of Tesla, which used to be about transforming the world to a green, sustainable future for transportation. I'm not saying Tesla can't research a robot, if they really think it will help their factories, but that is not the "mission". It isn't the WHY of what made people buy Tesla vehicles.

I think Elon needs to leave tesla, on focus his attention on SpaceX, where he seems to be more aligned with what the purpose and future are of the company.


As far as how smart he is? Who cares. My issue with him is that one day he seems like a nice guy, the next he's quite the opposite. I'm not sure he has any empathy for fellow humans - which makes me wonder why he even cares about sustainable transportation. If you are an egotistic jerk who has no value for humans, why care about sustainability? Or rather, why should I believe that he actually cares about sustainability?

Another reason for him to divest himself from Tesla, he just isn't a good representation anymore of the Tesla mission. IMO.
 
Like him or hate him, genius or fool, bottom line is that he is a PR and legal nightmare (SEC et al) for TESLA. I imagine his choices must be causing a lot of headache for an army of people @ Tesla who could otherwise be focusing their energy on more productive pursuits aligned with their roadmap. How long will his antics be tolerated at the boardroom level is going to be interesting to observe.
 
I guess that, having discovered that it will be quite difficult to fill the highways with self-driving vehicles, he has decided to abandon the planet altogether. ;)

Seriously, he at one point claimed to be "on the spectrum" and I'm inclined to believe him. I have a nephew who is mildly autistic, and while they are quite different, I can see some limited similarities with Musk.

The one thing I genuinely can't understand is why all of Musk's fans insist on calling him "Elon." The guy just doesn't strike me as being all that Cuddly and empathetic...
 
Speaking of which, you think a Squeeze-Me-Elon doll would be a popular seller?

I'm not sure if being in a position of power, and stinking Rich, ruins people or if that's the personality type most likely to become rich and powerful. I'm trying to think of a stinking Rich person I would want to hug... or eat lunch with.
 
The peanut gallery hath spoken.

Ask shareholders if they keep their stock if Musk leaves Tesla
 
danrjones said:
Does it matter what Musk did yesterday?
Very much so.

Investors trust Musk because of his track record, and it is a track record that no other living industrialist comes close to matching. The peanut gallery runs to the internet to whine about missed aspirational targets while the money takes note of his accomplishments and his remarkable record of eventually coming through in spades despite legions of 'experts' who proclaim it is not possible.
 
SageBrush said:
danrjones said:
Does it matter what Musk did yesterday?
Very much so.

Investors trust Musk because of his track record, and it is a track record that no other living industrialist comes close to matching. The peanut gallery runs to the internet to whine about missed aspirational targets while the money takes note of his accomplishments and his remarkable record of eventually coming through in spades despite legions of 'experts' who proclaim it is not possible.

Consumers should fear Musk, as he wants them locked into his control. Which will make the investors happy, for sure.
 
WetEV said:
SageBrush said:
danrjones said:
Does it matter what Musk did yesterday?
Very much so.

Investors trust Musk because of his track record, and it is a track record that no other living industrialist comes close to matching. The peanut gallery runs to the internet to whine about missed aspirational targets while the money takes note of his accomplishments and his remarkable record of eventually coming through in spades despite legions of 'experts' who proclaim it is not possible.

Consumers should fear Musk, as he wants them locked into his control. Which will make the investors happy, for sure.

Musk tried for 10 years to get the legacy manufacturers to go EV in a way the world needs, not at a compliance pace. He eventually gave up on them and is now growing Tesla to pick up their slack. That does not cause me fear, it is cause for celebration. I just wish he would go even faster.

To say that I am unsympathetic towards those who drag/dragged their feet is an understatement. I do find it funny to read the hordes that first laughed at Musk's foolishness now whine that he is sending them to BK or consigning them to obscurity.
 
gcrouse said:
johnlocke said:
gcrouse said:
For simplicity sake - I'm going to just post a combined response.

"Only engineers can be geniuses, eh ?"

Nowhere was that said. While someone doesn't have to be an engineer to be a genius - Elon possesses neither of those qualities.

"Do you think that only engineers can have a science background ?"

That was once again stated nowhere. A Bachelor's degree in physics doesn't make someone an engineer. Let me put it this way - Neil deGrasse Tyson (who's arguably a genius in the field that Musk has a Bachelor's degree) has a science background. I don't want to ride on an airplane that Neil deGrasse Tyson was responsible for engineering. Do you?

"Do you think that a topic can only be learned in school ?"

No.


"You don't need an engineering degree to be an engineer."

You're right. I used to do recruitment and placement for engineers for the government. Here's the minimum qualifications that were part of determining whether or not someone was qualified for the job.

(https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/classification-qualifications/general-schedule-qualification-standards/0800/files/all-professional-engineering-positions-0800.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwj7vbKEovv1AhUnDzQIHW-cDL0QFnoECAQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1Vcp-hGNpgQTESJwed2bv1)

In fact, Musk could theoretically have completed the coursework required for meeting the basic degree requirements. Not surprisingly, all of the engineers that were doing the interviews always selected folks who had an engineering degree from an ABET accredited engineering program or were registered Professional Engineers.


"I doubt Thomas Edison had an electrical degree either."

Thomas Edison has over 1,000 patents registered in his name. - You can probably name some of them. I can guarantee you can't name any of Musk's inventions of the top of your head.

Musk has 6.

5 of which have a small enough number of people that it's clear he contributed something and those predate Tesla. The last one has 17 people listed - it's doubtful Musk is doing much other than providing some overall direction as a CEO. His fragile ego is likely a large part of why he's listed - keep in mind this is the guy who sued the founders of Tesla to be listed as a co-founder.

https://patents.justia.com/inventor/elon-musk

As you may be aware - times have changed since the late 1800s. For example, when I buy a plane ticket for an airline - i have expectations that the airplane i will be riding in wasn't built in someone's garage.

"A degree is just a shorthand way for an employer to check competency. Doesn't tell you about their actual skill."

You may consider me so advised. Although - AFAIK, I'm the only one of the three of us who's actually done recruitment and placement of engineers in any capacity.

What's entirely fascinating to me however that when faced with an assertion to the contrary of what you believe both of you were unable or unwilling to make a list of Musk's concrete accomplishments as an inventor - something that's not particularly hard since patents are a matter of public record. (https://www.uspto.gov/patents/search)

It's pretty telling when the most ardent supporters can't name a single invention and have to result to trying really, really hard to move the goalposts with arguing what engineers are and aren't in a bid to lower qualification standards.
OK, I get it that you don't like Elon. Perhaps he doesn't have any engineering skills. What he does have is several companies worth billions of dollars. If he has no engineering skills then he must have really good management skills and an uncanny ability to pick good engineers.. He's started two businesses that were based on ideas that couldn't possibly work according to the engineers of the day. Somehow Tesla and SpaceX succeeded anyway. By the way Elon has 18 patents, not 6.

Edison perfected the lightbulb but he bought the patent for it from someone else. Some of the patents held in his name were actually ideas from the engineers that worked for him. At one point, Tesla worked for Edison. Not saying Edison wasn't a genius but he didn't work alone either. Edison Labs was the first large scale industrial research company.

It's not really a matter or liking or disliking the man for me - but let's not muddy the waters on what he is or isn't.

Richard Branson has innovative companies as well - the difference is that a cult of personality doesn't exist there. I don't think Elon is an exceptional manager - but i will certainly concede he is an exceptional marketer - without Elon, Tesla couldn't have survived. That's indisputable. But let's also be very clear - Musk didn't start Tesla and the acquisition of SolarCity was a very questionable bailout.

I'll stipulate the possibility of 18 patents Musk that you've claimed uncited if you can stipulate that Waymo, Uber, and Cruise have more parents than Tesla does for autonomous vehicles.

Sure, people trade patents all the time - but Tesla's patent for deep learning and autonomous vehicles isn't very impressive once you read through it and compare it to other AI parents that Microsoft and IBM hold. Let's keep in mind that Microsoft and IBM aren't making claims of self driving cars and yet their patent applications are more compelling.

Citation: https://insights.greyb.com/elon-musk-patents/ The number of patents Musk has to his name is actually irrelevant. How many patents do you have? How many engineers do you know who own patents? Does the fact that some of them don't own any patents make them less of an engineer? Musk has a "cult following" because he's done amazing things and made a lot of people rich. People follow the money. Yes , Elon is a bigger than life character and just as full of faults as the next guy. You just hear more about Elon.

Patents and trade secrets just ways of protecting Ideas, A lot of innovations aren't patentable. It doesn't make them less useful. A friend of mine who is actually a patent lawyer has often told me that 90% of all patents are useless and never make anyone any money. Many of the patent applications never make it past a first look at the patent office either citing prior work or being too derivative to qualify as original. People can and have patented perpetual motion machines. That doesn't mean that they actually work.

Solar City was a questionable deal but it seems to be doing well now. The megapack concept for energy storage is revolutionizing the Utility industry. The Powerwall is so popular you can't buy it without a PV system to go with it.
 
johnlocke said:
Musk has a "cult following" because he's done amazing things and made a lot of people rich.
About 74 million people follow Musk on Twitter. How many did he make 'rich' ? I'll guess that about 200E6 shares are retail, so on average ... about $2,500

Conclusion: there is a lot more going on in the cult than money. I know that I decided he was pretty darned awesome way before I ever bought a single share. Which is not to say that I do not appreciate TSLA.

The peanut gallery missed the obvious, and missed out. What can I say -- it sucks to be them.
 
SageBrush said:
WetEV said:
Consumers should fear Musk, as he wants them locked into his control. Which will make the investors happy, for sure.

Musk tried for 10 years to get the legacy manufacturers to go EV in a way the world needs, not at a compliance pace. He eventually gave up on them and is now growing Tesla to pick up their slack. That does not cause me fear, it is cause for celebration. I just wish he would go even faster.

To say that I am unsympathetic towards those who drag/dragged their feet is an understatement. I do find it funny to read the hordes that first laughed at Musk's foolishness now whine that he is sending them to BK or consigning them to obscurity.

Notice what isn't said.
 
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