Curious why you bought your leaf?

[RonDawg]

It's also possible they will introduce a few levels of new Leaf

I am also predicting that Nissan will offer more than one battery capacity, like Tesla. Small, to keep cost down, and large(r), for those who need more range.

 

[minispeed]

I agree that prices are likely near rock bottom and I don't see how they can go much lower, perhaps a bit in the short term, but by 2017/18 they come up a bit more.

Here's what's likely going to happen in a few years IMO.

- New BEVs hit the market with 200mi+ range (2017/2018) and priced roughly at $40K
- Nissan will be in a bad position with the used leaf market and will do one of two things to boost resale, either lower the price of replacement batteries, or increase the range of them. Either of these would boost resale tremendously.
Personally if I knew I could get the above in a replacement pack, I wouldn't sell my 2015. I'd drive it to 65% of capacity and put a new pack in.

If the lizard pack is everything Nissan says it is then stock 24 kWh replacement batteries won't matter since the 2015s will all be at 90% + by then. If they choose the option to put in a larger high cap battery you will probably see no pricing or availability of it. They only want to protect their lease returns, not other peoples used Nissan car sales profits. The full story will probably be something BS like that it just can't be done over a few days at any dealer and then longer range packs would only be available on certified pre owned Leafs coming back from Nissan. Even if they decide to offer it to customers for good will it will probably be priced in such a way that it's 75% the cost of trading in the leaf 1 and buying a leaf 2.

Option 3 is Nissan gets a contract to either export used leafs to a small or developing country or with a grid storage company that minimizes the risk of loss. Simple supply and demand it will also let them sell the good used cars for higher prices.

 

[ishiyakazuo]

I agree that prices are likely near rock bottom and I don't see how they can go much lower, perhaps a bit in the short term, but by 2017/18 they come up a bit more.

Agreed. I bought my Sonata back in '09, right when people started shifting from "Hyundais are garbage" to "Huh. I guess Hyundais are getting better..." At the time, I paid $8500 (+tax/title/etc.) for a certified pre-owned '06. There's no way that deal is coming back. I see the same thing happening to BEVs now (more people are realizing that they can replace at least one of their cars with one).

Here's what's likely going to happen in a few years IMO.

- New BEVs hit the market with 200mi+ range (2017/2018) and priced roughly at $40K
- Nissan will be in a bad position with the used leaf market and will do one of two things to boost resale, either lower the price of replacement batteries, or increase the range of them. Either of these would boost resale tremendously.

As desiv said, I don't know that Nissan really cares about the resale value of the LEAF. They've been dumping lease returns to auction, and I got mine from a dealer for $12,500 (their asking price), which means that the auction price was probably well below that. The issue is more that they're inundated with lease returns, and so I would argue that cheaper or increased range batteries will increase the number of sales and decrease the number of leases. The resale value is not why they would work on this.

- State rebates start to run out (CA rebate will be gone in a year or so, as will other states as well soon after)
- Federal $7500 Credit starts going away, or decreasing on some models. Nissan will likely hit it first, followed by Tesla. This may also drive them to provide options for early adopters of LEAF. They won't want to lose us to another manufacturer due to a decreased credit. Maybe this relates to a better battery replacement option.
- In 2018 they also stop giving carpool stickers in CA

Just look at 2017 as an example. Let's say that there's a Leaf Gen2 available at $38,000 with 200mi of range. The state credit is gone by then and you only have the federal option. I'm guessing demand will be high for this car so you won't see much by way of dealer discounts. so with a federal credit, you're looking at $30,500 as a purchase price, plus tax and license, you're at about $34,000. If you can buy a 2015 Leaf Gen 1 for $12,000 instead, that's a killer deal! Even if you wind up having to pay $5500 for a new pack in a couple years. If the price of the pack drops to $4000 or stays the same and goes to 120mi+ of range, there's a lot of incentive here.

Actually, this is why the resale values would go up -- Nissan would likely slow production of the LEAF if they can't sell new ones (i.e. the used ones are too enticing).

Personally if I knew I could get the above in a replacement pack, I wouldn't sell my 2015. I'd drive it to 65% of capacity and put a new pack in.

That's exactly my plan. Even if it doesn't offer much extra capacity, I'm guessing by the time mine gets to ~70% capacity (my best guess would be 2019 or so at this point), batteries will be cheaper or have more capacity. I doubt that the 1st gen LEAFs will have no recourse in terms of battery replacement, even ~3 years after the model line will be replaced. If I could get 120+ mile range in my current LEAF in 2019, I could probably deal with even 50% degradation before I would feel the need for another battery (or car), and that could easily take the car to 2030 or beyond. (Of course, I'd probably want something else well before that.)

 

[tkdbrusco]

Contrary to what people are saying about Nissan just ignoring the used Leaf market, I think they will have to address it. Note a few facts. There's 130,000 Leafs out there right now? Probably will be about 170,000 or more by the time the Gen2 get released. That's a lot of cars to ignore.

Here's the two major negative implications of leaving things the way they are and not offering a cheaper/increased range replacement option.
(1) You have to tell the people upgrading basically "screw you" I know you're an early adopter, but we can't help you. We either won't take your car back or we won't provide you a feasible option to stick with the brand.
(2) They are leaving nearly 200,000 cars as junk after <60,000 miles of use in most cases. If you want to discuss a negative environmental impact, let's talk about about junking 200,000 cars after such minimal mileage. Any benefit to the environment is wasted if this becomes the case.

There's also the real possibility that Nissan is the first manufacturer to lose the federal credit. If they lose this credit in 2018 (Est.) when a whole bunch of people are looking to turn in their Gen1 Leafs, they will need to address those customers to keep them in the brand. Most of these people have very fond relationships with their cars and the brand. If Nissan hangs them out to dry on their trade ins and also can't offer a full tax credit, then they are going to leave the brand. Offering a battery option that could both boost resale and also keep them in their Gen1 for a while longer, would likely keep them around until everyone loses the federal tax credit and all brands are on equal playing fields.

 

[ishiyakazuo]

Contrary to what people are saying about Nissan just ignoring the used Leaf market, I think they will have to address it. Note a few facts. There's 130,000 Leafs out there right now? Probably will be about 170,000 or more by the time the Gen2 get released. That's a lot of cars to ignore.

Here's the two major negative implications of leaving things the way they are and not offering a cheaper/increased range replacement option.
(1) You have to tell the people upgrading basically "screw you" I know you're an early adopter, but we can't help you. We either won't take your car back or we won't provide you a feasible option to stick with the brand.
(2) They are leaving nearly 200,000 cars as junk after <60,000 miles of use in most cases. If you want to discuss a negative environmental impact, let's talk about about junking 200,000 cars after such minimal mileage. Any benefit to the environment is wasted if this becomes the case.

There's also the real possibility that Nissan is the first manufacturer to lose the federal credit. If they lose this credit in 2018 (Est.) when a whole bunch of people are looking to turn in their Gen1 Leafs, they will need to address those customers to keep them in the brand. Most of these people have very fond relationships with their cars and the brand. If Nissan hangs them out to dry on their trade ins and also can't offer a full tax credit, then they are going to leave the brand. Offering a battery option that could both boost resale and also keep them in their Gen1 for a while longer, would likely keep them around until everyone loses the federal tax credit and all brands are on equal playing fields.

I agree with just about everything you've said here. The issue isn't so much Nissan not being able to find new customers with the Gen 2 LEAF, it's retaining their Gen 1 customers. Indeed, if they tell their early adopters that they're free to move along to another brand, it's unlikely that they'll get them back later, if companies like GM and Tesla offer proper competition with Bolt and Model III.
To be honest, I'm frustrated with other companies who haven't brought their EVs to Illinois. We've got a very EV-friendly place here, but Nissan and Mitsubishi are all I ever see (I don't count the Volt -- sorry.) I'd love to see Kia Soul EV here (to be honest, I was thinking of replacing my Sonata with a Soul ICE before I started seriously looking into the LEAF). I am fairly sure I'm going to replace my LEAF with another EV -- it's up to Nissan to decide if they want to keep me in their fold (and other companies to decide if they want to start selling in IL...)

 

[Slow1]

I agree with just about everything you've said here. The issue isn't so much Nissan not being able to find new customers with the Gen 2 LEAF, it's retaining their Gen 1 customers. Indeed, if they tell their early adopters that they're free to move along to another brand, it's unlikely that they'll get them back later, if companies like GM and Tesla offer proper competition with Bolt and Model III.
To be honest, I'm frustrated with other companies who haven't brought their EVs to Illinois. We've got a very EV-friendly place here, but Nissan and Mitsubishi are all I ever see (I don't count the Volt -- sorry.) I'd love to see Kia Soul EV here (to be honest, I was thinking of replacing my Sonata with a Soul ICE before I started seriously looking into the LEAF). I am fairly sure I'm going to replace my LEAF with another EV -- it's up to Nissan to decide if they want to keep me in their fold (and other companies to decide if they want to start selling in IL...)

You know, this made me wonder.. IF a competitor were to offer a premium trade-in on the 1st gen Leaf I wonder if they would be able to gain enough brand loyalty and goodwill to make it worth it.... and the marketing folks could emphasize how many Leaf owners were shifting to their superior/advanced/stable/goodMarketingWord brand....

In any case keep in mind that even with the success of the Leaf it is still a drop in the bucket of overall car sales (big drop, but...). And early adopters are notoriously difficult to retain as long-term customers (unless you are VERY innovative) since many of the things that draw them to you will get them to chase the next squirrel that runs by.... Thus it may well be too expensive to court them.

 

[tkdbrusco]

I agree with just about everything you've said here. The issue isn't so much Nissan not being able to find new customers with the Gen 2 LEAF, it's retaining their Gen 1 customers. Indeed, if they tell their early adopters that they're free to move along to another brand, it's unlikely that they'll get them back later, if companies like GM and Tesla offer proper competition with Bolt and Model III.
To be honest, I'm frustrated with other companies who haven't brought their EVs to Illinois. We've got a very EV-friendly place here, but Nissan and Mitsubishi are all I ever see (I don't count the Volt -- sorry.) I'd love to see Kia Soul EV here (to be honest, I was thinking of replacing my Sonata with a Soul ICE before I started seriously looking into the LEAF). I am fairly sure I'm going to replace my LEAF with another EV -- it's up to Nissan to decide if they want to keep me in their fold (and other companies to decide if they want to start selling in IL...)

You know, this made me wonder.. IF a competitor were to offer a premium trade-in on the 1st gen Leaf I wonder if they would be able to gain enough brand loyalty and goodwill to make it worth it.... and the marketing folks could emphasize how many Leaf owners were shifting to their superior/advanced/stable/goodMarketingWord brand....

In any case keep in mind that even with the success of the Leaf it is still a drop in the bucket of overall car sales (big drop, but...). And early adopters are notoriously difficult to retain as long-term customers (unless you are VERY innovative) since many of the things that draw them to you will get them to chase the next squirrel that runs by.... Thus it may well be too expensive to court them.

You bring up a really good point. If I'm Tesla, maybe I throw a few engineers at building a replacement pack for the Gen1 leaf, give them the task of keeping it cheap and at roughly 110mi of range. I then offer Gen1 leaf owners a nice trade in on the Gen1 leaf, stick a new pack in it (if needed) that only cost me $2-3K to make at my giga factory and then I am able to convert all this early adopters to a Model3?

 

[tkdbrusco]

I think the irony here is that we are all debating about how much we will lose on our Gen1's and what it really boils down to is that even if I can only sell my 2015 for $10K in three years, I've lost only $3K on a brand new car purchase that I drove around for 45,000 miles and only spent $500 over the whole period of time to charge up.

Name me one ICE car that I can buy new and in a worst case scenario sell for a $3500 total loss in three years. There isn't one. I paid just under $20K for my Sonata in 2011 and the thing is not worth $10K if I'm lucky, and I've likely spent another $6K on fuel over the past 4 years driving it. That's a $16K loss! What the hell are we complaining about?!

 

[nerys]

Wont hear a complaint from me. but then again I am an outlier. I am piss poor compared to most new car buyers (I could never afford the payment on a $35,000 car no matter how much it saved me Don't forget the insurance!) and I don't "sell" my cars.

I fully expect to still have this leaf in 10 years (just FYI 10 years for me is 300,000 miles) maybe longer.

so its "value" is completely irrelevant to me. I will not be likely to ever "sell" it.

 

[nerys]

As for a nissan upgrade. I hope really really hope nissan does not string us out to dry.

How much could is possibly cost for them to make it possible for us to upgrade the battery. if it costs a fortune ok then I understand but if it is minor I would REALLY love one day to upgrade the battery to something with more capacity. When I say minor I mean the DIFFERENCE between the price of an upgraded battery and the "cost" to make it compatible with our cars. as long as THAT difference is minor (say a couple grand) I would be totally ok with it.

I did not buy one expecting it. but I do HOPE for it. all I need is a drop dead range of 75 miles after 100,000 miles.

ie winter time 0' out heater going night time. 75 miles. that is all I want.

 

[ishiyakazuo]

I agree with just about everything you've said here. The issue isn't so much Nissan not being able to find new customers with the Gen 2 LEAF, it's retaining their Gen 1 customers. Indeed, if they tell their early adopters that they're free to move along to another brand, it's unlikely that they'll get them back later, if companies like GM and Tesla offer proper competition with Bolt and Model III.
To be honest, I'm frustrated with other companies who haven't brought their EVs to Illinois. We've got a very EV-friendly place here, but Nissan and Mitsubishi are all I ever see (I don't count the Volt -- sorry.) I'd love to see Kia Soul EV here (to be honest, I was thinking of replacing my Sonata with a Soul ICE before I started seriously looking into the LEAF). I am fairly sure I'm going to replace my LEAF with another EV -- it's up to Nissan to decide if they want to keep me in their fold (and other companies to decide if they want to start selling in IL...)

You know, this made me wonder.. IF a competitor were to offer a premium trade-in on the 1st gen Leaf I wonder if they would be able to gain enough brand loyalty and goodwill to make it worth it.... and the marketing folks could emphasize how many Leaf owners were shifting to their superior/advanced/stable/goodMarketingWord brand....

In any case keep in mind that even with the success of the Leaf it is still a drop in the bucket of overall car sales (big drop, but...). And early adopters are notoriously difficult to retain as long-term customers (unless you are VERY innovative) since many of the things that draw them to you will get them to chase the next squirrel that runs by.... Thus it may well be too expensive to court them.

You bring up a really good point. If I'm Tesla, maybe I throw a few engineers at building a replacement pack for the Gen1 leaf, give them the task of keeping it cheap and at roughly 110mi of range. I then offer Gen1 leaf owners a nice trade in on the Gen1 leaf, stick a new pack in it (if needed) that only cost me $2-3K to make at my giga factory and then I am able to convert all this early adopters to a Model3?

Or they say "come to Tesla for your LEAF maintenance" and drive Nissan out of the battery business eventually... which, for Tesla, might make an equal amount of sense. Would I stick a Tesla-made battery in my LEAF if Tesla offers it and Nissan doesn't? You betcha. (Maybe even if Nissan does offer it, depending on how heavy the ramifications involved would be...)

 

[Slow1]

You bring up a really good point. If I'm Tesla, maybe I throw a few engineers at building a replacement pack for the Gen1 leaf, give them the task of keeping it cheap and at roughly 110mi of range. I then offer Gen1 leaf owners a nice trade in on the Gen1 leaf, stick a new pack in it (if needed) that only cost me $2-3K to make at my giga factory and then I am able to convert all this early adopters to a Model3?

Or they say "come to Tesla for your LEAF maintenance" and drive Nissan out of the battery business eventually... which, for Tesla, might make an equal amount of sense. Would I stick a Tesla-made battery in my LEAF if Tesla offers it and Nissan doesn't? You betcha. (Maybe even if Nissan does offer it, depending on how heavy the ramifications involved would be...)[/quote]

Reality check here though - the battery designs are fundamentally different. This solution would require that Tesla validate (and take liability) for the new battery design etc. Quite an expensive proposition and they seem busy enough with their own development efforts. Simply not likely to be enough profits in Gen1 Leaf battery replacements I imagine.

Now I do wonder if Tesla (or anyone) could succeed in publishing a standard reference design (mechanical as well as control/electrical interfaces) that other vehicle manufactures could adopt. Basically the form factor of the unit and all the mounting/plugs required. IF this happened I could see a world where battery systems are essentially a commodity - much like many common batteries are today. Could open up all sorts of interesting market opportunities from 3rd party replacements to renting capacity for a long trip and using a lower capacity battery for daily driving.... Ok, back to reality

 

[ishiyakazuo]

Or they say "come to Tesla for your LEAF maintenance" and drive Nissan out of the battery business eventually... which, for Tesla, might make an equal amount of sense. Would I stick a Tesla-made battery in my LEAF if Tesla offers it and Nissan doesn't? You betcha. (Maybe even if Nissan does offer it, depending on how heavy the ramifications involved would be...)

Reality check here though - the battery designs are fundamentally different. This solution would require that Tesla validate (and take liability) for the new battery design etc. Quite an expensive proposition and they seem busy enough with their own development efforts. Simply not likely to be enough profits in Gen1 Leaf battery replacements I imagine.

Now I do wonder if Tesla (or anyone) could succeed in publishing a standard reference design (mechanical as well as control/electrical interfaces) that other vehicle manufactures could adopt. Basically the form factor of the unit and all the mounting/plugs required. IF this happened I could see a world where battery systems are essentially a commodity - much like many common batteries are today. Could open up all sorts of interesting market opportunities from 3rd party replacements to renting capacity for a long trip and using a lower capacity battery for daily driving.... Ok, back to reality

I think Tesla has tried to do that to some extent by opening up their patents for use by others. I agree that there's quite a bit of liability and effort involved, but I believe that Tesla's business plan is really battery-centric, not car-centric. They want to be the world leader in battery tech, and supply batteries and charging systems to others.
Yes, it might be some initial effort to get to this world-dominating position, but would it be worth it to them in the longer term? Maybe. Or they just wait for Nissan to screw their early adopters and court them naturally.

 

[Zythryn]

Tesla doesn't want to drive anyone out of the battery business.
They want EVs to evolve and spread to take over the ICE market wherever possible.

As already mentioned, their patents are basically open, so anyone that wants to build Tesla-like battery packs, can.

 

[ishiyakazuo]

I think no one can say Tesla's true intentions but Tesla themselves (and even then, who knows if they're telling the truth).
There are many business cases where people release their patents with certain conditions, whereby they basically own any derivative improvements as well, so that they maintain their #1 position in their field. Get everyone to build to your design, and then ride everyone else's best improvements.

 

[edatoakrun]

="tkdbrusco" I think the irony here is that we are all debating about how much we will lose on our Gen1's...

I'm not.

~4 years after leasing, ~3 years after buyout, and my LEAF has cost less to own than any other comparable new ICEV/PHEV/BEV would have.

But I expect the greatest savings are to come, as My LEAF is now over the rapid depreciation of any new Vehicle.

This is due largely to the relatively high total subsidy I (but less than many other buyers/leasers) received back in 2011.

I think the greater irony is that those who whine incessantly about LEAF depreciation, often are also those who complain about LEAF battery capacity, in the vein of "The food here is terrible, and the portions are too small."

The most rapidly depreciating major component of any BEV has been the battery pack, as it looks like prices per kWh are declining significantly faster than the ~8% per year I expected ~5 years ago when I signed up to order a LEAF, which of course is a major factor in new BEV prices declining faster than I expected, ~five years ago.

I am very glad didn't wait for another BEV to enter the market, buy more battery than I needed, and suffer the greater TCO many other BEV buyers did.

The most extreme case of course, is the Tesla S, which costs many buyers more to own for ~4 seconds than my LEAF has cost me for ~4 years.

Now, I probably could have saved some money (between ~a few hundred dollars after ~3 years, up to ~$1,000 to $2000 after ~4 years) by leasing, turning in, and searching out and buying a comparable replacement used LEAF.

I'd recommend buying a used LEAF over buying or leasing ANY new LEAF, for anyone interested in getting the lowest TCO on a BEV today.

But I am very satisfied to own the same LEAF I have for ~4 years, and don't feel like I missed out on the fun of finding and buying a used car at all...

 

[minispeed]

Another thing to consider, as used leafs have dropped very low compared to other cars of the same age there will probably be a point where the value levels off.

I think this will be due to 3 things.

1. The battery will have value in other uses non car related so even high millage cars with worn out everything that isn't safe will still have the same value per kWh in the used battery market as every other leaf.
2. For people who drive very low miles the reliability, low maintenance and cheap cost to run of the leaf will probably make it a top pick of people wanting a sub $5000 car and probably keep prices steady.
3. DIY EV conversions. Right now it costs about $5-6k for a kit and $8-16k for a decent battery. Once you can get the whole car with everything you need for $5000 I expect the DIY crowd to jump on them and maybe even a kit car builder like factory five to offer something fun to do with used leafs.

Personally I plan on tearing mine apart when I'm done with it and seeing if I can fit everything in my 78 mini.

 

[nerys]

that is my plan. I would love to eventually get a cheap leaf to make an EV metro or an EV Minivan and put dual batteries in it.

 

[ishiyakazuo]

I have to wonder (out loud)... has anyone actually done this (parted out a LEAF to make another EV)? I imagine that without aerodynamic tricks such as the bulging headlights, it might be really annoying and/or slow compared to a stock LEAF.

 

[nerys]

Speed would be same or similar as the leaf has about the same power as my minivan and way way more power than my metro.

Range would be shorter in mini an lknger in metro.