Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

[edatoakrun]

Another IDS concept video from Nissan, a bit over the top in presentation, IMO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zZ2h2MRCe0
But the key points of how future autonomous BEVs will interact with passengers, other vehicles, pedestrians, and the charging infrastructure are all there.

I doubt the IDS's transformation to manual mode will be a lasting feature of BEVs, more of a set of training wheel for drivers who fear a lack of control.

Once they know there is already a better driver in the car, how many people will want to drive?

You think the elderly woman in the green IDS wants to grab the controls and go canyon carving?

Notice the wireless charging lane feature (~4:30) which I expect will eventually relieve even those most seriously afflicted with range anxiety to give up their desire for massive battery packs.

Meanwhile back in Tokyo, DK reports some other automakers are not exactly fans of Tesla's semi-autonomous Autopilot.

Automakers worried reckless Musk could set back autonomous drive

October 28, 2015 By Bertel Schmitt

Apart from dieselgate, the big topic at this year’s Tokyo Motor Show is autonomous driving. Both Toyota and Nissan are showing off impressive autonomous technology. They are doing it quietly, without the chest pounding of a Elon Musk. Talk to automakers in Tokyo, and you will sense how worried they ware about Musk’s Autopilot rhetoric. They are not worried about Tesla’s tech. They are worried about a massive public and political blowback if and when an accident happens with an automated vehicle....

http://dailykanban.com/2015/10/automakers-worried-reckless-musk-could-set-back-autonomous-drive/

 

[LeftieBiker]

Once they know there is already a better driver in the car, how many people will want to drive?

In places with large rural areas like the US, "manual mode" will always be needed on some roads.

 

[edatoakrun]

A test drive of Toyota's semi-autonomous drive system.

IMO, it has the two most important safety features absent from Tesla's Autopilot, having its use limited to roads it can handle, and having a method to notify other drivers and pedestrians that the vehicle is in autonomous mode.

Insight - Automated driving in a Lexus on Tokyo’s motorways


Toyota's automated driving system is still four years away from reaching production cars, but Autocar has sampled the manufacturer's concept

...We head out towards Tokyo’s Shuto Expressway. Once the Lexus goes through a tollgate and up a slip road to the expressway, the system is satisfied that conditions for permitting autonomous driving are fulfilled.

Our driver gets a ‘ready for automated’ prompt on the infotainment screen to inform him that the system is available if he wishes to deploy it. He presses a button on the lower left steering wheel spoke; there’s a chime and then the screen display changes to ‘starting auto drive mode’.

Our driver calmly lifts his hands off the wheel and feet off the pedals. Other drivers in the vicinity are informed that the car has entered its autonomous mode via two blue lights in the rear screen...

http://www.autocar.co.uk/blogs/motor-shows-tokyo-motor-show/insight-automated-driving-lexus-tokyo%E2%80%99s-motorways

 

[GRA]

Just because, via GCC:

Volvo Cars tackles kangaroo safety research; highway-speed detection and avoidance

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/10/20151030-volvo.html

Personally, I favor the Crocodile Dundee approach - that'll teach the cobbers to keep a sharp lookout : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bd165_YTXZQ

 

[GRA]

Via ABG:

Seniors, Millennials embrace ride-sharing services
Mobility Soars, But What Are The Long-Term Effects?

http://www.autoblog.com/2015/11/20/senior-citizens-millenials-ride-sharing/

 

[GRA]

Just got a link to this from Metromile, my Pay As You Drive (PAYD) insurance company:

Marketplace of change: Automobile insurance in the era of autonomous vehicles

https://www.kpmg.com/US/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/marketplace-change.pdf

It's a white paper put out (10/2015) by KPMG. They're predicting an ultimate drop in claims of 80% once full autonomy and V2V/V2I communications are reached and the fleet is fully converted. Preceding this paper by three years was this one, on self-driving cars: https://www.kpmg.com/US/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/self-driving-cars-next-revolution.pdf

 

[DanCar]

In places with large rural areas like the US, "manual mode" will always be needed on some roads.

I think the U.S. army is working on countering that.

 

[DanCar]

... I used to think, this would take decades - but recently I'm getting convinced that before the end of this decade we'll see autonomous cars (at least ones with steering wheel). ...

Just Tesla autopilot is a big win and available now. Wouldn't worry about fully autonomous, it is probably 10+ years away to handle every situation a human can handle. Handling the boring mundane task of freeway driving will save this country billions. 3.4 million truck drivers in the U.S. as a data point.

Based on what Google has said the issue isn't technology. It is more of regulations, cost, and liability. In other words Google's self driving car is better than average driver on a clear sunny day on a clear road. Wonder what it will do with road debris but other wise it can take over driving for me in ideal conditions.

 

[GRA]

Via ABG:

NAVYA will run autonomous ARMA electric buses on public roads

http://www.autoblog.com/2015/11/23/navya-autonomous-arma-electric-buses-public-roads/

Starting next spring, in Sion, Switzerland.

 

[edatoakrun]

For those of you who are anxious at the prospect of autonomous BEVs...

Autonomous Single Passenger Electric Drone Unveiled At CES

Meet the mother of all disruptors — the EHang 184. What is it? Why, it’s an electric drone that can carry one 220 lb person in air conditioned comfort to a height of 11,500 feet. It has a maximum speed of 63 mph and can stay aloft for 23 minutes at sea level. It also flies itself autonomously. All the passenger does is program in a flight plan. After that, the EHang 184 responds only to 2 commands, “Take off” and “Land.” ...

http://gas2.org/2016/01/07/ehang-184-single-passenger-electric-drone-debuts-at-ces/

 

[GRA]

Via GCC:

Volvo Car to make Gen 2 Pilot Assist standard on new S90 sedan

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/01/20160108-volvo.html

Volvo Car is introducing an advanced version of the company’s semi-autonomous Pilot Assist software on the new Volvo S90 sedan and will make it standard on all S90s sold in the United States.

Pilot Assist was first introduced on the 2016 Volvo XC90 and allows the vehicle to accelerate, decelerate, come to a complete stop and steer in road conditions with clear lane markings based on the car in front up to speeds of 30 mph (48 km/h).

The second generation Pilot Assist on the S90 will allow these functions to work up to highway speeds (80 mph, 129 km/h) without the need for a pilot car. . . .

Also GCC:

Standard-production Mercedes E-Class awarded test license for autonomous driving in Nevada

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/01/20160108-eclass.html

The new Mercedes-Benz E-Class has been awarded a test licence [Sic.] for autonomous driving in the state of Nevada; specifically, three standard-production E-Class vehicles have been approved to drive themselves.

To allow autonomous driving functions to be tested, test vehicles previously had to be equipped with special hardware and software. This included additional sensors, modified steering and an adapted ESP. That is no longer the case with the new Mercedes-Benz E-Class. The standard-production vehicle is already extensively equipped with intelligent technology. This means that, for testing purposes, it is necessary merely to make some smaller software modifications to the DRIVE PILOT control unit. . . .

 

[edatoakrun]

More on the N/R timeline:

Renault-Nissan to launch more than 10 vehicles with autonomous drive technology over the next four years

The Renault-Nissan Alliance will launch more than 10 vehicles with autonomous drive technology in the next four years in the United States, Europe, Japan and China. The technology will be installed on mainstream, mass-market cars at affordable prices.

The year 2016 will mark the debut of vehicles with “single-lane control,” a feature that allows cars to drive autonomously on highways, including in heavy, stop-and-go traffic. In 2018, Renault-Nissan will launch vehicles with “multiple-lane control,” which can autonomously negotiate hazards and change lanes during highway driving. And 2020 will see the launch of “intersection autonomy,” which can navigate city intersections and heavy urban traffic without driver intervention...

Autonomous drive is expected to help further reduce driver error, which is responsible for up to 90% of all fatalities.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/01/20160107-alliance.html

 

[edatoakrun]

While reading, you might want to consider that utopian projections don't have a very good track record...

...And so, with admitted speculation, let us enter our car world of the future:

It is newly 2050. We’ve just had one year with no traffic fatalities in the Western world — none, no car-crash deaths, no pedestrians mowed down in city crosswalks. Globally, traffic deaths are declining dramatically. Credit the installation of advanced electronic safety and communications systems, including cars that “talk” to other vehicles and to government infrastructures communicating the presence of hazards before they cause harm...

At home in the District of Columbia on the first workday of the first workweek in the new year, traffic moves smoothly. There are no traffic jams, honking horns, no road rage of any sort. The scene from far aloft appears to be that of a motorized ballet with cars automatically pausing for one another, seeming to nod, wait, then go. There are no red, yellow or green lights. Traffic seems to be moving by invisible hand...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/road-predictions-for-2050-the-end-of-gasoline-traffic-deaths-and-gear-heads/2016/01/08/6b3db7d4-b2f9-11e5-a842-0feb51d1d124_story.html

 

[GRA]

Via GCC:

Virginia Tech report finds national crash rate for conventional vehicles higher than crash rate of self-driving cars

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/01/20160109-vtti.html

A new report, “Automated Vehicle Crash Rate Comparison Using Naturalistic Data,” performed by the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute and commissioned by Google, shows that the crash rates for self-driving cars are lower than the national crash rate of conventional cars.

Results show that when data is adjusted for unreported crashes and take into account accident severity, the national crash rate for conventional vehicles is higher than the crash rate of self-driving cars.

Up until now, comparisons based on existing data have been incomplete as requirements in each state for police reported crashes differ, and the majority of severe crashes that go unreported. Estimates of unreported rates of crashes have ranged from as little as 15.4% to as much as 59.7%. The result is that the current national crash rate is essentially a low estimate of the actual crash rate. Meanwhile, self-driving cars are required to report every crash, regardless of severity.

The report examines national crash data and data from naturalistic driving studies that closely monitors the on-road experience of 3,300 vehicles driving more than 34 million vehicle miles, to better estimate existing crash rates, and then compares the results to data from Google’s Self-Driving Car program. . . .

Key findings include:

• Adjusted for unreported crashes and accident severity (accidents that fall within the two highest severity levels), the national crash rate estimates of 4.2 crashes per million miles is higher than the crash rates for the Self-Driving Car operating in autonomous mode (3.2 per million miles).
  
  The crash rate of conventional vehicles at all levels of severity is higher than the self-driving car crash rates, according to analysis of the Second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Naturalistic Driving Study.
  
  Current data suggest that conventional vehicles may have higher rates of more severe crashes than self-driving cars, but given the small overall number of crashes for the self-driving car at these levels, there is insufficient data to draw this conclusion with strong confidence.
  
  However, there is statistically-significant data that suggest less severe events may happen at significantly lower rates for self-driving cars than conventional vehicles.
  
  When the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute, using methods developed for the Second Strategic Highway Research Program Naturalistic Driving Study, analyzed the Google Self-Driving Car events, none of the vehicles operating in autonomous mode were deemed at fault.
  
  As self-driving cars continue to be tested and increase their exposure, the uncertainty in their event rates will decrease. This is particularly appropriate to vehicles intended for lower-speed use where less-severe events are the most likely to be encountered by the newer generation of the Self-Driving Car fleet.

 

[edatoakrun]

I wonder how these proposals will play in the red areas of the USA?

U.S. highway safety officials plan to take several steps this year to clear the way for autonomous vehicles -- including those designed to operate without a driver -- to hit the streets in large numbers.

U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony announced the moves at the Detroit auto show today, part of an effort to remove the obstacles posed by current auto safety regulations, many of which were written more than 50 years ago.

...President Obama has proposed spending nearly $4 billion on autonomous vehicle pilot projects as part of the president's broader effort to upgrade the country's transportation infrastructure...

http://www.autonews.com/article/20160114/OEM11/160119800/u-s-seeks-to-clear-autonomous-car-hurdles

Comments by Auto/autonomous industry leaders in the more detailed coverage at the WSJ:

...The proposal, which would require congressional approval, aims to have federal regulators work with auto makers and others to craft policies and rules for vehicles that can move without a driver at the wheel. It also would set up pilot programs for testing “connected vehicles” that talk to one another to avoid crashes under the $3.9 billion budget proposal...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/obama-administration-proposes-spending-4-billion-on-driverless-car-guidelines-1452798787

 

[GRA]

Feb. C&D article:

Semi-Autonomous Cars Compared! Tesla Model S vs. BMW 750i, Infiniti Q50S, and Mercedes-Benz S65 AMG

http://www.caranddriver.com/features/semi-autonomous-cars-compared-tesla-vs-bmw-mercedes-and-infiniti-feature

. . . To gauge progress on the path to brainlessness, we’ve gathered the four luxury cars that have done the most to purge human frailties from the acts of cruising, braking, and steering.

As usual, our test regimen is a balanced mix of on-road evaluations and proving- grounds tests. Other than noting which car can and which can’t steer you snugly against a curb, we skipped automatic-parking maneuvers. . . .To verify that adaptive cruise control works to maintain a safe interval between your car and the one immediately ahead when an intruder barges into your lane, we used a foam-filled Volkswagen Golf decoy owned by Bosch to supplement our over-the-road observations. Our main focus was automatic lane keeping: how well these four early semi-autonomous cars guide you safely and securely while relying on their electronic wits instead of the driver’s hands, eyes, and judgment. Using a 50-mile mix of freeway stretches, rural two-lanes, and city streets, we tabulated exactly how many guidance interruptions were caused by broken lane marks, inconsistent pavement patches, intersections, and exit and entrance ramps. We also noted when a car lost the lane-keeping sense for no apparent reason. Then we ranked the four contenders according to the number of control lapses each test car experienced. . . .

For another view of Tesla's Autopilot, see David Noland's review of an S90D at GCR:

Old Vs New: 2016 Tesla Model S 90D Compared To Original Version Page 2

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1102306_old-vs-new-2016-tesla-model-s-90d-compared-to-original-version/page-2

 

[GRA]

Via GCC (but consider the real-world lane-keeping issues of other cars detailed in the C&D article in the immediately preceding post):

Volvo introducing Pilot Assist II semi-autonomous drive tech as standard on MY2017 XC90

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/02/20160226-volvo.html

. . . Introduced first in the new S90 premium sedan, Pilot Assist II adds steering assistance to Adaptive Cruise Control functionality. When the semi-autonomous Pilot Assist system is activated, acceleration, braking and steering are assisted in order to help the driver comfortably follow the traffic flow within the current lane in well-marked highway conditions.

With generation two of Pilot Assist, the system now offers semi-autonomous driving functionality up to 130 km/h (81 mph) and no longer needs a lead car. This means that Pilot Assist will be increasingly useful on long motorway trips where the road markings are clearly visible. . . .

 

[GRA]

Time (March 7th had a cover story (actually two) on autonomous cars. I thought both were quite good. There's still a pay wall at the moment.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Self-Driving Cars and the Looming Privacy Apocalypse - The Atlantic
https://apple.news/Aqjo-zEaBQ7SV_8ldxi_3qA

 

[GRA]

Via GCC:

Daimler demonstrates autonomous truck platooning; Highway Pilot Connect delivers ~7% lower fuel consumption

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/03/20160322-daimlerhpc.html

Daimler Trucks demonstrated the new Highway Pilot Connect . . . on the A52 autobahn near Düsseldorf. Three WiFi-connected, autonomously driving trucks operated on the autobahn with authorization for public traffic in a platoon formation.

Such a combination can reduce fuel consumption by up to 7% and the road space requirement on motorways by almost half, while improving traffic safety at the same time, Daimler said . . . Connected vehicles in a platoon require a distance of only 15 meters instead of 50 meters between them. . . .

At the same time platooning makes road traffic much safer: while a human behind the wheel has a reaction time of 1.4 seconds, Highway Pilot Connect transmits braking signals to the vehicles behind in less than 0.1 seconds. . . .