Sublime said:
Bazooka said:
The big question that all car companies -- and we plugheads -- can't answer is: What's the market value of each additional mile of battery range? Not the cost to provide it, but what are people willing to pay for it.
That's an interesting question. If you look at the Model S 60 vs 85, that was $175/mi and they sold tons more 85s than 60s, then again there was also a sizeable performance difference too, not to mention this is a luxury segment.
If we came up with a mythical 124mi range LEAF vs an 84mi LEAF, at $150/mi that would be $6k, I don't think that would sell well. I think $3k for those 40mi is about what the market would bear, which is $75/mi. Taking that number further, at 3.5mi/kW (EPA for the LEAF), that's $262/kWh (ignoring efficiency losses due to additional weight). Battery prices just aren't there yet.
That's exactly the kind of calculation I keep making as I try to decide [1] what makes sense for my wife and me, and [2] where the market's mindset is.
I agree that for a Leaf, i.e. a non-lux car, $3k/40 miles is about the right ratio in terms of what the market would find widely palatable. And as best I can tell, battery prices aren't quite there yet, even though they keep sliding in the right direction.
While I'm happy to see the bump in battery capacity for the 2016 SV/SL Leafs, I think the really interesting details are how the market responds to (and at a price we don't even hear rumors of yet) and then what Nissan does, partially in response to that market reaction, with the Leaf II. My prediction: The wait from this September until the Leaf II details leak will really, and I mean REALLY, test my patience. My wife should apply for sainthood now; she'll easily earn it in the next 18 months or so...