2016 Leaf: How many kWh needed, and at what price?

[jlsoaz]

I'd like to start a poll, but I don't see a way to do that. Also, I think it would take some time to set it up in a thoughtful way to bring out the choices.

My question comes out of the Tesla Model S thread where there is some mulling over of kWh and price points going on. I think it's clear that for many of us who are on lease, and others, we will be back to looking at competing plug-in vehicles around 2014-2016. For me, the 24 kWh/~80 mile range of the Leaf was "ok" by 2012 standards, but by 2016, I expect to have more options to choose from. For example, what if Toyota has an epiphany, puts a reasonable price on its 41+ kWh RAV4 EV (or have they recently moved toward this?), and actually starts making them available outside of extremely limited production efforts which cannot be counted as a serious effort toward volume BEV business.

Or what if Tesla is by that time offering a vehicle with 35+ kWh and on lease terms within $100 or so of present day (hard-to-argue-with super-affordable) Leaf terms. I think Tesla has indicated that aside from the Model X, they are also looking to offer a lower-priced vehicle (though it is hard to tell where this will fall).

So, my question at that point (and this is still about 3 years down the road for me) will be to look to see if Nissan is offering something competitive.

[I edited this initial question and the title to "2016" to be a bit more specific that I don't expect Nissan to revise the Leaf in an instant, and tomorrow offer 35+ kWh, but to give the question a clear future aspect.]

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Good thread idea. Given the choice, clearly people want to go 300 miles, or 1000 miles, or have their own nuclear reactor in the trunk and only refuel every 10 years. Obviously the technology isn't there yet.

Submitted for your consideration, I think 36-40kWh could be a sweet spot. There are quite a few people with longer commutes, or winter conditions where 24kWh just doesn't cut it, and 40kWh would bring them into the tent. There are some interesting "road trip" use cases that would be enabled by by 40kWh. Setting aside the cross country trips that are really blue moon scenarios, there are lots of shorter outings you could pick up with that capacity in a reasonable manner. Here in South Florida for example, you have Orlando theme parks, Daytona/St Augustine, Tampa, Sanibel, Marco (polo), Everglades, and the keys all in 200-250 mile range. If such trips could be made with a single fast charge stop on a meal/rest stop, you have have really opened up a world of possibilities for the EV. Of course when you get where you are going, presumably you have access to normal L2 (or even L1) as you are there for a while.

BTW Nissan needs L3 in Key Largo and Marathon. Tesla needs to add a supercharger probably in Islamorada, either at the tiki bar or the Fish Co.

 

[jlsoaz]

Good thread idea. Given the choice, clearly people want to go 300 miles, or 1000 miles, or have their own nuclear reactor in the trunk and only refuel every 10 years. Obviously the technology isn't there yet.

Submitted for your consideration, I think 36-40kWh could be a sweet spot. There are quite a few people with longer commutes, or winter conditions where 24kWh just doesn't cut it, and 40kWh would bring them into the tent. There are some interesting "road trip" use cases that would be enabled by by 40kWh. Setting aside the cross country trips that are really blue moon scenarios, there are lots of shorter outings you could pick up with that capacity in a reasonable manner. Here in South Florida for example, you have Orlando theme parks, Daytona/St Augustine, Tampa, Sanibel, Marco (polo), Everglades, and the keys all in 200-250 mile range. If such trips could be made with a single fast charge stop on a meal/rest stop, you have have really opened up a world of possibilities for the EV. Of course when you get where you are going, presumably you have access to normal L2 (or even L1) as you are there for a while.

BTW Nissan needs L3 in Key Largo and Marathon. Tesla needs to add a supercharger probably in Islamorada, either at the tiki bar or the Fish Co.

Thanks for your thoughts. I think you and I are roughly in-line as to what we think would be a sweet-spot # of kWh.

One thing that came to mind as I was reading your points, and I think this is important:

If Nissan were to offer a Leaf variant for $100 or even $200 per month more than I am paying now ($327 per month including all fees/etc.) and if this were to get me a variant that had 35+ kWh, then this would either *save* me money, or it would be much less of an added expense than some might realize at first glance, and so I would go for it in a heartbeat. The reason is that it would allow me to ditch my gasoline-burner. I would do this deal now if I could, gladly, except that I am committed for so many more months on my present lease.

I'll have to check up forensically if Toyota has lowered lease terms to these levels on the RAV4 EV in California in the 6 months since I got my Leaf, although there were other impediments (In September 2012 it was already a stretch to inquire about one from outside of California, so there were other impediments). Anyway, it is just an academic exercise at this point - I am locked in until 2016 Q1 on my Leaf lease.

 

[TomT]

My next EV needs to offer at least 36Kwh and TMS. That would be the sweet spot for me, assuming a vehicle that is at least as efficient as the current Leaf...

 

[dgpcolorado]

I'll say 32 kWh since it could be fit in a LEAF without too much fuss and would give a legitimate 100 mile range when new. The bigger battery option would be priced about the same as the 2013 LEAF, with the 24 kWh version priced at $23K or so for the base model.

The big downsides to really large battery packs are weight and cost/benefit. As the weight increases it takes more energy to accelerate the car, even if the shape and size of the vehicle is the same, so the range increase is not the same as the percent increase in battery size. And cost/benefit is crucial: how much range does one need for an occasional long trip, given the huge cost of lithium ion batteries? Does it really make sense to haul around a big expensive battery when the vast majority of trips are less than 50 miles? For some people it would make sense, but not for the vast majority I would think.

My guess is that anything more than about 32 kWh wouldn't meet a reasonable cost/benefit analysis with current battery technology. If someone comes up with an improved battery with increased energy density and greatly reduced cost, that would change things. I don't expect such a thing by 2016.

Not that my crystal ball is any better than that of anyone else...

 

[braineo]

I would definitely consider the 2 Leaf scenario. One 24KWH for every day use and one for regional rides - such as Atlanta to New Orleans, Destin (FL), Charleston, Savannah and Orlando (FL). With that capability - I wouldn't need to think ever buying gas.

Now if I could get a Tesla model S for those rides and if there was SuperCharge stations available.... oh my...

2015?

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

The big downsides to really large battery packs are weight and cost/benefit. As the weight increases it takes more energy...

Good reasons to stop at 40kWh. Again, it's good to look at it from the standpoint of use cases, instead of asking people how many miles range they need. With 40kWh you cover almost everyone's daily commuting needs without the need for midday charging, and road trips of moderate length, where people are not going to put up with stopping every 60 miles, but if they can get a good two hours in on the road between L3 stops they may be OK with it.

Yeah braineo, hopefully they have something in the works for 2015, not 2016. I think they have gone back to the drawing board on the LE.

 

[TomT]

I hope so since it would have been DOA otherwise...

I think they have gone back to the drawing board on the LE.

 

[keydiver]

32-36 kWh would remove 95% of my anxiety, but I would never buy another BEV here in Florida without TMS.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

What about battery trailers? You wouldn't need the weight of extra batteries at all if you could rent a range extending trailer, and swap them out as you go for really long trips. Saw this somewhere, but forget where.

 

[braineo]

Trailers are good ideas, but having the QC connector in the front to connect the trailer, might not look too pretty....

 

[tcherniaev]

For me the Leaf is the second car in a 3-car / 2 driver household (I keep an old 2001 Mercedes around as a spare). Still there are many days when I wish I had an additional 20-30% of range. Any more than that would be of little use as I still would not be able to take it on a road trips.

Another consideration is the charging infrastructure. Take today as an example: first I drove to a satellite office 16 miles from my house. Then I had a dentist appointment about 30 miles from the office. On the way I stopped for lunch and charged for about 30 min at one of the very few charge stations available (I live in Utah, not California). Needless to say my choice of lunch was very limited to the place next to the charge station. After visiting dentist, I drove back to the same office where I started this morning. Now I am about to head home and I am not sure if have enough charge to make it 16 miles to my house.

Now consider the scenario above, but assume that I can charge at my office and/or my dentist. If I could get at least an hour charge at either of those locations, I would have plenty of charge to make it home. Just saying.

P.S. My dentist shares a parking lot with a movie theater. He would not have to install a charger if the movie theater had one. The satellite office where I worked today is across the street from a shopping area that has Kohls, several restaurants, etc. If they offered charge stations I could walk to my office from there in 1-2 min.

 

[nonleafeater]

I hope so since it would have been DOA otherwise...

I think they have gone back to the drawing board on the LE.

I was just reading an article the other day about LE being based on the Leaf platform, and being powered by the same 24kWh battery.

 

[RonDawg]

I'll have to check up forensically if Toyota has lowered lease terms to these levels on the RAV4 EV in California in the 6 months since I got my Leaf, although there were other impediments (In September 2012 it was already a stretch to inquire about one from outside of California, so there were other impediments). Anyway, it is just an academic exercise at this point - I am locked in until 2016 Q1 on my Leaf lease.

Anything can happen in the next 3 years, but so far Toyota seems to have little or no interest in expanding the RAV-4 EV's sales territory outside of California. While Toyota is offering manufacturer cash in SOME (but not all) CA counties ($10k in the case of some SoCal zip codes), their lease deals aren't all that attractive. Unlike Nissan, Toyota does not pass along the full, if any of, the $7500 Federal tax credit if you lease.

I would gladly lease a RAV-4 EV for as much as $299/month.

 

[Stanton]

I'll say 32 kWh since it could be fit in a LEAF without too much fuss and would give a legitimate 100 mile range when new. The bigger battery option would be priced about the same as the 2013 LEAF, with the 24 kWh version priced at $23K or so for the base model.

I expect this to be the target for the next version of the Leaf. In 2011/12/13 the price points for a larger battery pack are too high (Nissan did a good job of sizing the current Leaf right on the edge of people's $$ pain threshold), but I expect both technology and volume to enable better price points in the next couple of years. In fact, I expect to see a capacity upgrade option (same fit/form) for current Leaf owners who want to simultaneously "refresh" their battery pack and increas capacity (32kWh?) at the same time.

 

[Elephanthead]

I think double the range would be ideal for me, but there needs to be a leap forward in batteries before that is cost or weight possible.
I would also take "gas" stations every 20 miles on the highway for me to stop at and QC to 80% with the car I currently have. If the car was self driving I would have a beer at each stop. Trips to Grandmas would be much better!

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I think double the range would be ideal for me

Doubling the range might only require a 50-60% increase in pack capacity on account of the reserve requirements.

Also, a 36-40kWh pack would work better for fast charging. The 24kWh pack is too small to take the 50kW rate, people report it overheats the battery. If you're stopping for 30min what's another 15-25 min, you're probably stopping for a meal anyway. The whole thing just sounds more workable from a usability standpoint. Drive 2 hours, stop for 1, drive two more and arrive at your destination. Much more than that and most people would prefer to fly anyway.

 

[ERG4ALL]

For me a 250 mile range would be my choice. If Nissan came out with options for battery packs like Tesla, then that could allow us to tailor our purchase/lease for our own driving needs. If Nissan were able to come out and compete with the Tesla on range (not amenities) then that may lure a few people away from Tesla because right now there is no competition for a 250 mile range EV and the LEAF may be able to offer the range at a much lower price. And one final IF, if we see a change in battery technology that would increase the energy density without increasing the weight it might be a whole new ballgame.

 

[Nubo]

I do not entertain hypotheticals. The world as it is, is vexing enough!

-- Col. G. Stonehill (True Grit)

:lol:

Hard for me to answer this question. On the one hand I'd hate to set the bar too low for Nissan, on the other hand there's no point demanding what's impractical or unavailable. Truth be told I'm quite happy with my LEAF. Would I like to have more range? Certainly. How much? 1000 miles at the current 75-mile price would do quite nicely.

Best case scenario is for EV sales to continue to increase, and manufacturers feel the need to push R&D to compete in earnest for the segment.

 

[bradbissell]

100 miles of real winter miles for $30,000.