patrick0101
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jan 4, 2011
- Messages
- 368
I have done some back of the napkin math and predicted that by 2070 nearly every car that is sold will plug in and that 100 years from now ICE cars will be a rare sight (outside of museums).
You can see my assumptions and charts here:
http://carswithcords.blogspot.com/2014/06/ice-on-road-ahead-for-another-100-years.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Of course, the future is hard to predict; there could be a 2030 oil shock and then we could all start using jet packs and VR-telecommuting. Assuming that doesn't happen, the above is what I think a successful fast adoption of plug-in cars would look like.
A few of my co-workers have read this and the EV drivers think the transition will occur much faster, while the ICE drivers tend to think the EV adoption rate will be much slower. I assume most of you, as EV drivers, will fall into the first camp but I'd like to hear what you think.
You can see my assumptions and charts here:
http://carswithcords.blogspot.com/2014/06/ice-on-road-ahead-for-another-100-years.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Of course, the future is hard to predict; there could be a 2030 oil shock and then we could all start using jet packs and VR-telecommuting. Assuming that doesn't happen, the above is what I think a successful fast adoption of plug-in cars would look like.
A few of my co-workers have read this and the EV drivers think the transition will occur much faster, while the ICE drivers tend to think the EV adoption rate will be much slower. I assume most of you, as EV drivers, will fall into the first camp but I'd like to hear what you think.