I, Cringely: An impending black swan for electric cars

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So, Tesla should just "abandon" Lithium battery chemistry and spend the next 2 or 3 years playing Solitaire until the breakthrough battery technology is ready, as the author is sure it will happen by then.
 
As the improvements and cost reductions come, I would expect Tesla to be in the forefront adopting them, while those manufacturers sitting on the sidelines with either no EV offerings or lame ones may not even recognize them.

It's certainly a risk that the gigafactory will be built to manufacture something that's obsolete, on the other hand who's to say whatever improvements come along can't be integrated into their manufacturing process?
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
It's certainly a risk that the gigafactory will be built to manufacture something that's obsolete, on the other hand who's to say whatever improvements come along can't be integrated into their manufacturing process?
Click to expand...
I would imagine re-tooling for a new battery would be a drop in the bucket compared to the initial cost of building the factory.
 
Sigh...newbies.

There will NOT be a new battery technology ready to take the electric car business by storm in 2 years. I don't doubt it will come at some point, but the near term is not the way to bet. Besides Tesla and Nissan can easily convert their factories and drive trains to adopt it when it finally comes...while everyone else will have to get their thumb out to hitch a ride.
 

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