Berlino
Well-known member
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: 10 PREDICTIONS FOR 2014
http://www.navigantresearch.com/wp-assets/uploads/2014/01/WP-EV10P-14-Navigant-Research.pdf
1) Automakers Accelerate Push for Changes in the California ZEV Mandates
They get paid for forecasting this? Obviously, the auto and oil industries will always lobby to have ZEV regulations canceled, delayed and diluted. The stricter ZEV regulations become, the more whining there will be.
Why am I posting this in politics? Well, there's a petition circulating to have California-style ZEV regulations enacted in Quebec, but Electric Mobility Canada (EMC) has come out against it.
On the surface, EMC would be Canada's equivalent of Plug-in America, but hasn't the latter always fought to have ZEV regulations extended and tightened?
http://emc-mec.ca/new/zev-petition-quebec-position-electric-mobility-canada/
Note that their 3rd bullet point arguing against CARB-ZEV is drawn from Navigant Research's opinion that manufacturers will not meet California ZEV requirements in 2022.
EMC: Despite the existence of ZEV regulations in California, it is anticipated that in coming years, the sales of EVs in California may fall significantly short of those set out in the regulations...
Navigant: By 2022, not even California will meet the 10% ZEV requirement, followed by a graph with a bar signifying 2022 ZEV requirements and 60% smaller bar for projected 2022 ZEV sales.
If I'm read the graph correctly, Navigant Research doesn't understand ZEV regulations. Since each BEV sale will be worth three credits in 2022, ~4.2% of sales would easily meet the minimum 10% requirement. Unless "PEV" includes FCVs, they also ignore that hydrogen vehicle sales will help meet the quota as well. At one point, they do mention some vehicles receive more than one credit, but they don't seem to realize that the tier system is slated to be long gone by 2022, and all BEVs/FCVs will receive three credits.
Is it disturbing that a pro-EV advocacy group is quoting flawed analysis to claim California's ZEV mandates are too strict?
To be honest, I'm worried that even Navigant's raw numbers may be tainted. It appears they calculated them when they were commissioned by an Oil Industry group, Fuels Institute, to produce this study: http://fuelsinstitute.org/ResearchArticles/TomorrowsVehicles.pdf
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http://www.navigantresearch.com/wp-assets/uploads/2014/01/WP-EV10P-14-Navigant-Research.pdf
1) Automakers Accelerate Push for Changes in the California ZEV Mandates
They get paid for forecasting this? Obviously, the auto and oil industries will always lobby to have ZEV regulations canceled, delayed and diluted. The stricter ZEV regulations become, the more whining there will be.
Why am I posting this in politics? Well, there's a petition circulating to have California-style ZEV regulations enacted in Quebec, but Electric Mobility Canada (EMC) has come out against it.
On the surface, EMC would be Canada's equivalent of Plug-in America, but hasn't the latter always fought to have ZEV regulations extended and tightened?
http://emc-mec.ca/new/zev-petition-quebec-position-electric-mobility-canada/
Note that their 3rd bullet point arguing against CARB-ZEV is drawn from Navigant Research's opinion that manufacturers will not meet California ZEV requirements in 2022.
EMC: Despite the existence of ZEV regulations in California, it is anticipated that in coming years, the sales of EVs in California may fall significantly short of those set out in the regulations...
Navigant: By 2022, not even California will meet the 10% ZEV requirement, followed by a graph with a bar signifying 2022 ZEV requirements and 60% smaller bar for projected 2022 ZEV sales.
If I'm read the graph correctly, Navigant Research doesn't understand ZEV regulations. Since each BEV sale will be worth three credits in 2022, ~4.2% of sales would easily meet the minimum 10% requirement. Unless "PEV" includes FCVs, they also ignore that hydrogen vehicle sales will help meet the quota as well. At one point, they do mention some vehicles receive more than one credit, but they don't seem to realize that the tier system is slated to be long gone by 2022, and all BEVs/FCVs will receive three credits.
Is it disturbing that a pro-EV advocacy group is quoting flawed analysis to claim California's ZEV mandates are too strict?
To be honest, I'm worried that even Navigant's raw numbers may be tainted. It appears they calculated them when they were commissioned by an Oil Industry group, Fuels Institute, to produce this study: http://fuelsinstitute.org/ResearchArticles/TomorrowsVehicles.pdf
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