LeftieBiker
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Re: Republican tax proposal will terminate $7,500 EV tax credit

Sun Dec 03, 2017 12:38 pm

DanCar wrote:I tend to be right about everything. :P I'll predict termination at end of this year will stay out. If there is a compromise then something happening at the end of 2018 is more likely.


You were wrong about the Bill passing. You don't seem to understand the horse trading that occurs in the legislative process. Anyway, I think we all can agree that the EV credit is a very small horse that no one will fight to the (political) death to keep.
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DanCar
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Re: Republican tax proposal will terminate $7,500 EV tax credit

Sun Dec 03, 2017 1:00 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:You were wrong about the Bill passing.
Not sure what you are referring to. Perhaps you can quote it, if you are were referring to my last statement about going down in flames with a smiley face, it wasn't a very serious comment. Internet etiquette is a smiley made at end of statement means light hearted or humor. Also the statement was made with an "or". You are wrong about me being wrong.
You don't seem to understand the horse trading that occurs in the legislative process.
Fine, lets trade accusations. You don't seem to understand how compromise works in the legislative process.
Anyway, I think we all can agree that the EV credit is a very small horse that no one will fight to the (political) death to keep.
Nope, there will be a fight to keep it in and a number of senators have voiced opposition to removing it early.

LeftieBiker
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Re: Republican tax proposal will terminate $7,500 EV tax credit

Sun Dec 03, 2017 5:19 pm

Looks like trajectory is the same as other major pieces of legislation this year. Trump's ability to divide the GOP is showing strong.


It's true that you tend to hedge your bet ( as do I) but your overall tone has suggested all along that the bill was likely to fail. And "horse trading" and compromise are the same thing, BTW. You don't seem to have understood that this bill had become Trump's Last Chance to get a major piece of legislation passed in 2017, and the Republicans have skin in that game too. They were determined to get that bill passed no matter what they had to change, so the prospect for it passing was always "good" to abuse a nice word...

As for a fight taking place to save the EV tax credit, well I guess that depends on how you define "fight." I'd offer to make another bet, but the semantics would be too hard to judge if there is some token opposition. Now that wouldn't surprise me, but an actual floor fight? That would amaze me.
Last edited by LeftieBiker on Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The most offensive, tasteless phrase in use here is "Pulled the trigger." I no longer respond to posts that use it.

DanCar
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Re: Republican tax proposal will terminate $7,500 EV tax credit

Sun Dec 03, 2017 5:36 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Looks like trajectory is the same as other major pieces of legislation this year. Trump's ability to divide the GOP is showing strong.
It's true that you tend to hedge your bet ( as do I) but your overall tone has suggested all along that the bill was likely to fail. And "horse trading" and compromise are the same thing, BTW. You don't seem to have understood that this bill had become Trump's Last Chance to get a major piece of legislation passed in 2017, and the Republicans have skin in that game too. They were determined to get that bill passed no matter what they had to change, so the prospect for it passing was always "good" to abuse a nice word...

As for a fight taking place to save the EV tax credit, well I guess that depends on how you define "fight." I'd offer to make another bet, but the semantics would be too hard to judge if there is some token opposition. Not that wouldn't surprise me, but an actual floor fight? That would amaze me.
Yes, that was the trajectory at that point in time, they managed to put it together since then. Yes, hindsight is 20/20 about chances, but you don't seem to understand the bill hasn't passed into law yet. The professional Washington opinionators had a different opinion a couple weeks back.

You don't seem to have understood that I understand the trivial point that this is Trump's last chance to get a major piece of new legislation passed in 2017. They will have to pass a budget bill this year.

LeftieBiker
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Re: Republican tax proposal will terminate $7,500 EV tax credit

Sun Dec 03, 2017 8:43 pm

The bill has to be reconciled before being passed into law, true. That just means that aspects of the House and Senate bills will be combined into a final version (unless the House simply accepts the Senate version, which is less likely). I don't see how, though, you think this is a great thing. Sure, it's possible that the EV credit will be kept, but there are so many terrible things in common in both bills that whatever passes will still be terrible. In the case of the EV credit, my position remains that it will be sacrificed to the House version as a way to get them to agree to accept the Senate's version of more important provisions. I continue to hope that I'm wrong, but it would appear to defy both political and normal logic for the Senate to expend political capital to save a provision that most of the country cares little about. Maybe the auto industry will write a few Very Big Checks, but I remain doubtful.

Or maybe you think that Trump won't sign it into law?
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edatoakrun
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Re: Republican tax proposal will terminate $7,500 EV tax credit

Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:19 pm

If the tax credit is terminated, I expect most BEV manufactures will reduce their prices (and especially their lease terms) to maintain sales. Meeting CARB sales requirements (or selling the CARB ZEV credits) actually make up larger subsidies per vehicle than the TC, for most BEV manufactures.

It will probably hit TSLA and PHEV manufacturers hard, though.

TSLA was really counting on another few $ billion in credits to move that big pulse of model 3's it was planning to sell in the USA before credit expiration.

The tax credit special ~16 kWh (or less) PHEV may quickly pass into history as well.

Good riddance, as far as I'm concerned.

Nissan to stick with electric cars, tax credits or not

SMYRNA, Tenn. - The head of Nissan Motor's (NSANY) operations in North America said Monday that the company is undaunted by congressional efforts to do away with a federal tax credit for plug-in electric vehicles. Boasting a 40 percent increase in battery range to 150 miles, the 2018 Leaf will hit dealerships early in the new year with a sticker price of just under $30,000.

But that's before a $7,500 federal tax credit that has been a major selling point for buyers of the previous version of the Leaf or other electric offerings from companies like Tesla (TSLA) or General Motors (GM).

The tax credit could disappear if the House version of a federal tax overhaul bill prevails in negotiations with the Senate, which included the incentive in the bill it passed last week.

The Japanese automaker on Monday celebrated the production of the first new Leaf at its sprawling plant on the outskirts of Nashville. Jose Munoz, the chairman of Nissan North America, told reporters afterward there's "very clear, strong natural demand" for electric vehicles even without the incentives.

"Obviously we welcome support to the EV business," Munoz said. "At the same time, we've built a very strong foundation because we are global leaders on EV."

The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance announced in September that it plans to produce 12 new electric models by 2022 and that electric cars will make up 30 percent of its overall output.

"We're going to continue betting on this," Munoz said.

Munoz declined to say whether Nissan would adjust the pricing on the Leaf if the federal tax credit ends...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nissan-to- ... ts-or-not/
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Republican tax proposal will terminate $7,500 EV tax credit

Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:08 pm

I'm sure that Nissan will be able to sell 2018 Leaf S models easily enough. The trouble will arise with the SV and especially the SL. I'm guessing that Nissan has already decided to go with a thin profit margin to boost sales, while GM has been taking profits until recently. If the choice is between a $35k-$38k 150 mile Leaf SV, or a $37-40k 230 mile Bolt LT or between a $40-42k 230 mile Bolt Premiere vs a $38-40K Leaf SL, most people will go by the specs and choose the Bolt. The Leaf will be a niche car within an already small niche.
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Nubo
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Re: Republican tax proposal will terminate $7,500 EV tax credit

Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:00 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:The bill has to be reconciled before being passed into law, true. That just means that aspects of the House and Senate bills will be combined into a final version (unless the House simply accepts the Senate version, which is less likely). I don't see how, though, you think this is a great thing. Sure, it's possible that the EV credit will be kept, but there are so many terrible things in common in both bills that whatever passes will still be terrible. In the case of the EV credit, my position remains that it will be sacrificed to the House version as a way to get them to agree to accept the Senate's version of more important provisions. I continue to hope that I'm wrong, but it would appear to defy both political and normal logic for the Senate to expend political capital to save a provision that most of the country cares little about. Maybe the auto industry will write a few Very Big Checks, but I remain doubtful.

Or maybe you think that Trump won't sign it into law?


I'm sure he'll sign whatever lands on his desk, and it will be the "greatest" "most terrific" thing a President has ever signed. :roll:
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

edatoakrun
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Re: Republican tax proposal will terminate $7,500 EV tax credit

Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:39 pm

If you weren't sure how the Murdoch family felt about it...

Killing the Electric Car Credit

Are Republicans really going to subsidize the Leo DiCaprio set?


By The Editorial Board

Dec. 10, 2017 5:04 p.m. ET
The House and Senate are scrambling to reconcile their tax bills, and one issue is how many loopholes to kill. Here’s one that should be easy: Eliminating the tax credit for electric vehicles...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/killing-th ... 1512943468

And apparently (not a paying reader myself) the WSJ didn't even understand how the credit presently works:

In WSJ Editorial On Killing The Electric Car Tax Credit, Tesla Catches A Major Break

Wall Street Journal's Editorial Board published a generally sound and good article on the (up to) $7,500 electric car tax credit on October 10: Killing the Electric Car Credit?

However, the article contains a major error that significantly weakens the much stronger argument that the WSJ could have made. The error is in regards to this sentence: "The credit is capped at the first 200,000 vehicles that each manufacturer sells, and Tesla may reach its limit for customer tax credits some time next year."

The issue with this critical sentence is this: The credit is not capped at the first 200,000 vehicles. If it were, the program actually wouldn't be all that catastrophic. Tesla (TSLA), General Motors (GM) and Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) each have delivered over 100,000 eligible cars in the U.S., so they are more than half-way to the 200,000 point.

Here's the disaster, and it's not about the first 200,000 cars. The disaster is that there is no 200,000 limit. The 200,000 mark only triggers a six-quarter phase-out period, during which time the quantity of eligible cars is unlimited.

Yes, you heard that right: Unlimited.

For up to six full quarters following the first 200,000 units, automakers under current law can sell an unlimited number of cars eligible for the Federal electric car tax credit. The first two quarters, the amount is up to $7,500. The next two quarters, up to $3,750 - and then the final two quarters, up to $1,875...

During that six-quarter period, the EV tax credit would be a giant sucking sound on the U.S. federal Treasury, given its unlimited exposure at that point...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/413114 ... ajor-break
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Republican tax proposal will terminate $7,500 EV tax credit

Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:26 pm

I can now get a loaded Bolt premiere (in Cajun tint red, no less) for $37.5k, the MSRP for a base LT. That's over $6k off MSRP. This is getting difficult.
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