Yes, you are correct. It'd be easy to see if the 2015 batteries are hiding extra capacity at the bottom by looking at cell/pack voltage at turtle. We already know that cell/pack voltage is slightly higher if anything at 100% on the 2013+ LEAFs than the 2011-2012.QueenBee said:
When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf
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JeremyW
Well-known member
Oh jeez. My lease is up on the 9th. :shock:Bazooka said:
evnow
Well-known member
Bazooka said:
I think this is what we're seeing. Instead of 1.5 we have 1.25.
So, in MY17 they could have
S - 30KWH
SV - 50 KWH
SL - 60 kWh
This will allow them to have a 200 mile Leaf and something that costs $25k and goes 100 miles.
BTW, Nissan probably really hates this news getting leaked out. It really depresses their already low Leaf sales till September.
No, I hadn't seen that thread; thanks for the link. As for believing it, well given the sources cited (none), I'll file it in the category "I hope it's true but I'll believe it when there's independent confirmation". That's NOT to say I think that post is wrong, merely that I have no way to judge the accuracy of what's presented as fact.
Probably the aspect of that rumor/information that I find most convincing is that it's only a 25% bump in battery capacity. That feels like the "more than you had, less than you want" kind of mid-life kicker Nissan would deliver. My assessment is that they almost have to deliver something of interest between now and the arrival of the Leaf II, to avoid a complete meltdown of sales.
I still think there's something to be said for paying attention to the lifespan of designs and the need to amortize development costs. If Nissan brings out a 30kWh pack on September 7th (again, that's when NMAC told me the 2016 Leafs are coming), I would expect it to live on, perhaps moving it into the S in the Leaf II with the SV and SL getting a larger pack. That still requires the development of two new packs, but they would both stay in production for several years.
For me, an extra 25% in range would be nice, but it's nothing I'd get too excited about, frankly. My extended lease will be up the end of March 2016, which will give the market a chance to settle down after the 2016 introductions. Until I know the pricing, I don't know if I'd go with an S or SV; if Nissan keeps the S at 24kWh and cuts the price, then I might re-up for a two-year lease on another S.
As always, this stuff sure isn't dull...
Probably the aspect of that rumor/information that I find most convincing is that it's only a 25% bump in battery capacity. That feels like the "more than you had, less than you want" kind of mid-life kicker Nissan would deliver. My assessment is that they almost have to deliver something of interest between now and the arrival of the Leaf II, to avoid a complete meltdown of sales.
I still think there's something to be said for paying attention to the lifespan of designs and the need to amortize development costs. If Nissan brings out a 30kWh pack on September 7th (again, that's when NMAC told me the 2016 Leafs are coming), I would expect it to live on, perhaps moving it into the S in the Leaf II with the SV and SL getting a larger pack. That still requires the development of two new packs, but they would both stay in production for several years.
For me, an extra 25% in range would be nice, but it's nothing I'd get too excited about, frankly. My extended lease will be up the end of March 2016, which will give the market a chance to settle down after the 2016 introductions. Until I know the pricing, I don't know if I'd go with an S or SV; if Nissan keeps the S at 24kWh and cuts the price, then I might re-up for a two-year lease on another S.
As always, this stuff sure isn't dull...
dhanson865 said:
By the way -- has anyone else noticed that the US inventory of Leafs has dropped a lot lately? According to cars.com, the inventory has declined from a hair under 6,000 to 5,444 (as I type this) in just a few weeks. Looking at the recent selling rate, that looks like either [1] production has stopped or [2] production has slowed down and is coupled with a sales surge.
This certainly suggests that there might be a bigger pack coming in at least some trim levels of the 2016s, and Nissan is trying to empty the supply pipeline between now and early September.
This certainly suggests that there might be a bigger pack coming in at least some trim levels of the 2016s, and Nissan is trying to empty the supply pipeline between now and early September.
DaveinOlyWA
Well-known member
tkdbrusco said:
I have not seen a consistent correlation between GIDs and SOH either. I do notice that the SOH seems to drop more when I have a few light driving days in a short period of time or if it sits more than 24 hours, etc. ahr and Hx seem to follow each other "most" of the time. the GIDs seem to follow nothing
TonyWilliams
Well-known member
ishiyakazuo said:
Using YOUR data, 312 GIDs * 80 wattHours per GID = 25kWh battery.
Not 27.
ishiyakazuo
Well-known member
Ah, but you're missing something there. Remember that the original 24kWh battery only had about 22kWh usable. Thus, if it's 25kWh usable in the pack, you're looking at something like a 27kWh battery pack. If the thing has 312 GIDs, when it's not charged to true 100% (which it never would be, especially if software is limiting it to 292 or so), comparing apples to apples, I'm thinking it's probably at least 26.TonyWilliams said:
All that being said, this speculation gets us nowhere if Nissan won't allow the use of that capacity in the LEAF. At best, it might help explain things a year or two down the line when we start seeing enough degradation that it can be properly modelled.
dhanson865
Well-known member
ishiyakazuo said:
SOC at the top and bottom end vary from car to car vs what the dash shows. If I charge my car to full I can't get above 92.x% according to leafspy.
So you have no idea the actual full capacity until you charge it to full and take a reading. Doing math vs some perceived estimate of 100% is just fantasy.
ishiyakazuo
Well-known member
But we're not talking about SOC (State of Charge). We're talking about SOH (State of Health).dhanson865 said:
SOH, as I understand it, is an internal value that says how much capacity remains in the battery as a percentage of the maximum when it was new and has nothing to do with the current SOC.
On all previous model years (2011-2014), from what I've seen in the data, you can take the GIDs reported (from a full charge), divide it by 281, and you get almost exactly SOH. But on 2015s, it doesn't work that way, and we've seen people "stuck" at 292 GIDs for thousands and thousands of miles. This, to me, indicates that something is fishy with the data (either Leaf Spy isn't getting the data correctly on '15s, or the battery is capped at reporting 292 GIDs until it starts degrading below that point). tkdbrusco's is one of the few I've seen where you've got a max GIDs below 292 and an SOH that indicates that it's degraded over 8%, even though it's only down 6/292 GIDs... so all I'm saying is "something doesn't add up" and I'm curious to know what that is, but again, I don't know that knowing this helps in any way.
ishiyakazuo said:
I totally agree that the numbers don't add up. For what it's worth, my car was reading as low as 275 GIDS at full charge in the dead of winter. And the SOH has as high as 97% when new, to as low as 88% at dead of winter, to 92% roughly today? It is almost as if the SOH is doing some sort of predictive analysis based on behavior of the battery and charging habits. As far as charging behavior goes, when I tried to charge only to 80% and rarely to 100%, I found that the total GIDS dropped, but when I have been charging to 100% and cycling down to 30% on a regular basis, the GIDS came back up. Most of the people who are at 10K miles and still at 292 GIDS have been abusing their battery by traditional standards, they QC all the time, charge to 100% all of the time as well, and really drive the cars often? I'm really beginning to think that there's two possible things that could be going on here (1) There's extra capacity hidden in there somewhere, perhaps only 1-2kwh, but still something, and that capacity is being buffered into capacity loss overall. (2) The data is being processed differently and it is fooling the leaf spy and leaf stat apps (I'm using leaf stat). I have noticed no decrease in range whatsoever, in fact it feels like its improving, but this may be a result of my learning to drive the car better. I average 4.9mi/kwh and frequently get 100mi+ in range, usually by GOM is predicting anywhere from 104-115 on a full charge. My guess with the 2016 model is that they have the same pack as the 2015 (or perhaps very similar with just a few extra cells squeezed in. Nissan has probably been looking at the 2015 models and wondering if its safe to free up some of the hidden capacity in the packs. The 2016 models will likely see some of this freed up hidden capacity as well as possibly a couple additional cells crammed in. My guess would be that the combination of these would bring the 2016 leaf to a 100mi EPA car. They would then make this new pack available to all MY11-16 cars as a replacement (hopefully at the same price).
evnow
Well-known member
This is getting really OT. Pls start a new thread (or use a more relevant thread).
