2015 May Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 2104 - Total 11540

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Last years May total was about a 1,000 more than this years number. Declining numbers are not a good thing in the auto industry.

The two most obvious reasons behind this drop is that the current iteration is getting a little long in the tooth heading into its final year before a full refresh happens in 2017, and also the introduction of a bevy of other sub-100 mile range plug-ins.

http://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-us-sales-up-in-may/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
Anecdotally, driving around town yesterday for about 1 hour, I saw 5 different Leafs. I've never before seen close to that many in one day (usually 1 or 2 at most.) Not sure what was going on.
 
Typical Japanese model cycles are five model years long with one refresh in the middle. The Leaf is entering its sixth model year very soon with the same body style as its first model year. Leafs are being battered a bit by rock-bottom used Leaf prices on the low end and a some new competition on the high end. This is all very typical performance for a specialty car near the end of its model cycle.

The 30 kWh pack and green California HOV sticker expiration will give the '16 Leafs a bump in sales performance and then once the new/shiny model comes out the cycle will start anew.

Nothing to fret about.
 
A concerning comment from InsideEVs about Tesla?

In our opinion, it looks as though Tesla’s Q2 guidance of 10,000 to 11,000 Model S sedans will ultimately be achieved, but strictly through the demand in North America – perhaps accounting for as much as 2/3rds of the quarter’s end result; a far cry from the originally expected splits (~33%) of a couple years ago.

If Tesla is to make full year estimates of 55,000 cars sold, this situation will have to righted almost immediately given the long delays between orders and actual deliveries overseas.

With approximately 34,000 cars (and Model X SUVs) needed to be sold in the second half, it is unreasonable to think the company can sell ~22,000 (3,700/month) EVs in North America alone to make up for international shortfalls, especially with first US Model X deliveries now shifted back into (late Q3) September.
 
lorenfb said:
A concerning comment from InsideEVs about Tesla?

In our opinion, it looks as though Tesla’s Q2 guidance of 10,000 to 11,000 Model S sedans will ultimately be achieved, but strictly through the demand in North America – perhaps accounting for as much as 2/3rds of the quarter’s end result; a far cry from the originally expected splits (~33%) of a couple years ago.

If Tesla is to make full year estimates of 55,000 cars sold, this situation will have to righted almost immediately given the long delays between orders and actual deliveries overseas.

With approximately 34,000 cars (and Model X SUVs) needed to be sold in the second half, it is unreasonable to think the company can sell ~22,000 (3,700/month) EVs in North America alone to make up for international shortfalls, especially with first US Model X deliveries now shifted back into (late Q3) September.

Only concerning if you have been ignoring what Tesla has been saying for two or three quarters.
Sales in China have been poorer than expected.
This hasn't been an issue though as the rest of the world has happily bought as many cars as Tesla can deliver, picking up the slack.

The 55k number won't be made if the X ramp up takes longer than expected. This is a warning Tesla made in their 1st quarter results conference call.
 
1st two months of the Q1 had 1050 Model S European sales.

1st two months of the current Q2 has 1527 Model S sales with Denmark and Switzerland yet to report.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showwiki.php?title=Europe+Q1+2015+Model+S+sales" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It appears Insideevs is overestimating Model S US sales and underestimating European sales.

China is on track for at least 4k 2015 Model S sales. Original projections from Tesla had 5k-10k Chinese deliveries per year. Tesla China is not that far off. The building is not on fire.


It is not like Tesla built a dedicated auto and battery plant in China with 200k per annum capacity then only sold ~20k per year its first couple of years.
 
roughly * speaking last month EVs outsold PHEVs by a 7:4 ratio in USA
http://www.hybridcars.com/may-2015-dashboard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
not what I had expected. (more like a 1:1 ratio)

*BMW i3, blah blah blah, all treated as an EV
 
dm33 said:
I can't help but think that low gas prices are having an effect on EV sales.

Bingo.

On the other hand, I expect a boost as the California "Green Stickers" are exhausted and people who would have otherwise made other choices now gravitate towards the cars that get the "White Stickers". Never underestimate the motivation to escape the living hell of an LA commute.
 
DeeAgeaux said:
China is on track for at least 4k 2015 Model S sales. Original projections from Tesla had 5k-10k Chinese deliveries per year. Tesla China is not that far off. The building is not on fire.
Looks like Tesla was slow to get certified as a clean air car that must be done city by city to easily get the immediate right to register and drive the car.

https://fortune.com/2015/05/29/china-tesla/

Quote;

Earlier this month, Tianjin added Tesla to its selected vehicle list. The company previously made the list in Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen. That leaves Beijing as the final holdout.

“Beijing is the big one, Xie says. “There’s no other market that matters as much.”
-------------------------

I do hope LEAF takes off soon. The short range and battery issues have delayed general acceptance for at least 6 to 8 years IMO.
 
TomT said:
Actually, in many locations, the HOV lanes are now so crowded here that it doesn't make THAT much difference!

Nubo said:
Never underestimate the motivation to escape the living hell of an LA commute.

Sorry to hear that. I work reasonably close to home but drove into SF Wednesday to catch a ballgame. HOV lane probably saved me an hour returning home (eastbound Interstate 80).

I wonder how much of the congestion is due to cheaters. I see them constantly. The $271 fine once seemed shockingly high but it's held there for quite some time now. I guess lots of folks think it's worth the risk.
 
TomT said:
Actually, in many locations, the HOV lanes are now so crowded here that it doesn't make THAT much difference!

Besides, who wants to be 'forced' to maintain the HOV lane speed or be rear-ended?
 
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