Cool weather range/efficiency surprise

It is hard to call the current weather "cold", as ~50F is not that cold (55F pack temp). None the less this is my first cool weather stretch to see what happens to the range on my used 2011 Leaf. I had the car pre-heated and the heater barely took any juice along the way (outside air with a temp setting of 60F).

On my 7.7 mile commute (starting from 100% charge) I got 3.8 mi/kWh according to the dash, which is down thanks to fresh tires from a summer usual of 4.5-4.8).
Leaf Spy say I used 3.086 kWh, and got 0.256 kWh back in regen, giving only 2.72 mi/kWh.

So, who is right? I went from 92% SOC to 77% SOC, saying I used up 15%, or 2.87 kWh of my ~19.14 kWh remaining capacity which lines up with Leaf Spy. So I realize that Carwings is hopelessly optimistic, but I didn't think the dash calculation was also suspect. Is a GID worth less than Leaf spy thinks it is in cooler weather? I mean that would put my range down to 55 miles without any real heater usage for surface streets (max speed was about 45 today), which sadly sounds accurate from some recent longer trips (used up 42% doing a 19 mile trip on the weekend in similar temps, but higher speeds and one decent sized hill up to the midpoint, and more heater usage).

Have you ever run it down to Zero or to "- - -" ?

I've noticed on my LEAF that when I run it down to "- - -" and I charge the next day my range gets better.

It's almost like the LEAF doesn't realize where the bottom of the pack is and its estimates are off.