Price comparison of LEAF compared to gasoline car

Now that Nissan has put a price on a new LEAF battery one can compare the cost of driving a LEAF to driving a equally-priced gasoline car.

Nissan has stated that the average LEAF driver can expect the LEAF battery to lose about 20% of its capacity in 5 years and about 30% of its capacity in 10 years. So, I assume that a LEAF will get a new battery within its first 10 years. The rest of the car is very well made and should last for decades with proper treatment.

From the article I estimate that the total cost of replacing the battery will be ~$6000.

The comparison below is for a LEAF and a gasoline car that sells for same price; the calculated saving is the same for any equal price. The MSRP for the three 2014 LEAF models are:
• S model: $28,980
• SV model: $32,000
• SL model: $35,020
• SL model with Premium Package: $36,070
There is a $7,500 federal tax credit for all three models.

Assume:
• Price of $35,000 for a LEAF and a gasoline car
• Average price of electricity for the next 10 years is $0.15/kWh.
• Average price of gasoline for the next 10 years is $3.50/gallon.
• Efficiency of the LEAF is 3.4 miles/kWh.
• Efficiency of the gasoline car is 30 miles/gallon.
• Average mileage is 12,000 miles/year.
• Maintenance for a LEAF is $100/year.
• Maintenance for a gasoline car is $300/year.
• Tire replacement cost is the same for both cars.

Cost of LEAF without $7,500 federal tax credit for 10 years:
Cost of car: $35,000
12,000 miles/year electricity cost: $ 5,290
Maintenance @ $100-year: $ 1,000
New battery: $ 6,000
Total: $47,290

Cost of LEAF with $7,500 federal tax credit for 10 years:
Cost of car: $35,000
12,000 miles/year electricity cost: $ 5,290
Maintenance @ $100-year: $ 1,000
New battery: $ 6,000
Federal Tax Credit: -$7,500
Total: $39,790

Cost of gasoline car for 10 years:
Cost of car: $35,000
12,000 miles/year gasoline cost: $14,000
Maintenance @ $300-year: $ 3,000
Total: $52,000

So, the first 10-years saving for the LEAF compared to an equally-priced gasoline car is:

• Without $7,500 federal tax credit: $4,710
• With $7,500 federal tax credit: $12,210

The saving will probably increase in the second 10 years for the following reasons:
• The maintenance cost for the gasoline car will probably increase faster than the maintenance cost of the LEAF.
• The price of gasoline will probably rise faster than the cost of electricity. See http://www.roperld.com/science/minerals/USOilBoom_Bust.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and http://www.roperld.com/Science/electricityus.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; .
• If you put solar PV on your property sufficient to charge the LEAF most of the time, the cost of electricity will remain essentially constant for charging the LEAF for two or three decades. (I charge my LEAF about 98% of the time in our garage and, through Solarize Blacksburg, soon we will have twice as much PV electricity as the LEAF uses.)

In future years the replacement battery may cost less or have higher capacity than the battery being replaced for similar cost.

This same calculation applies for any pure electric car except for slight differences in the miles/kWh value. I am considering leasing the new Mercedes B-Class Electric Drive car in May 2015 when my LEAF lease expires, because it has a range of 104 miles compared to the 2015-LEAF range of 84 miles.

You are definitely giving the gas vehicle a fair shake.
1. Your price per KWH is high. But I realize that different parts of the country are higher. For VA it is 11 cents/KWH. I personally have the EV+Home plan where from 1-5AM the price is 5.13 cents/KWH. SO that is what my Charge Timer is set for.

2. I can't remember when I saw gas for 3.50 a gallon. I just drove from VA to IL and back and paid 3.70+.

I am splitting hairs here and I wholeheartedly agree with your analysis. I will not buy a battery. I will probably drive until I hit 7.9 years and/or 99,500 miles and take it in for a warranty replacement. I will either have some bad cells (likely) that will qualify for a replacement, or a good faith loyalty offer to trade in for a new EV (who knows maybe a 300 mile Altima EV).

Unfortunately, all of the above assumes that a comparably-equipped gas car costs as much as a LEAF, and that's not the case. A better direct comparison is with one of the compliance cars that also have a gas counterpart, i.e. FFE, HFE, Smart, Spark. Here's one such comparison, of the Renault Zoe/Clio:

http://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_EV-fiscal-incentives_20140506.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As you can see (graph on pg. 13), in the conditions specified by the study only in Norway and Denmark is the four year TCO of the BEV lower. Everywhere else, including the U.S. as a whole or California specifically, it's higher. Changing some of the parameters such as increasing the average annual mileage from 10,000 km (6,210 miles) to say 8 or 10,000 miles could alter the equation more in the BEV's favor, but at best it looks like a wash. As for PHEVs, only in the Netherlands (and barely in the UK) did they come out ahead, and they've since curtailed the subsidies in the Netherlands that made that possible.

comparisons go bonkers if you live in Georgia and negotiated a hell of a price (28k for SL before 12.5k tax credit) and drive 15k per year using TOU at about 3.9 cents per KWH, and then get a free battery replaced under warranty..... definitely this comparison is YMMV....

GRA said:

Unfortunately, all of the above assumes that a comparably-equipped gas car costs as much as a LEAF, and that's not the case. A better direct comparison is with one of the compliance cars that also have a gas counterpart, i.e. FFE, HFE, Smart, Spark. Here's one such comparison, of the Renault Zoe/Clio:

Click to expand...

Yes - we should take a comparable gas car - like Prius or FFE or Mazda 3.

With an MSRP of $25k for the gas car we are looking at

Leaf : $39,790
ICE : $42,000

Even though, the chances of gas being $3.50 avg for next 10 years is close to zero.

BTW, we can have various state level differences.

In WA, for eg.
- No sales tax on EV (so, saving $2.5k compared to ICE)
- Electricity is 11c/kWh
- Gas is over $4/Gallon

The other thing is - we should make a comparison assuming battery will go below 70% soon after capacity warranty expires.

evnow said:

GRA said:

Unfortunately, all of the above assumes that a comparably-equipped gas car costs as much as a LEAF, and that's not the case. A better direct comparison is with one of the compliance cars that also have a gas counterpart, i.e. FFE, HFE, Smart, Spark. Here's one such comparison, of the Renault Zoe/Clio:

Click to expand...

Yes - we should take a comparable gas car - like Prius or FFE or Mazda 3.

With an MSRP of $25k for the gas car we are looking at

Leaf : $39,790
ICE : $42,000

Even though, the chances of gas being $3.50 avg for next 10 years is close to zero.

BTW, we can have various state level differences.

In WA, for eg.
- No sales tax on EV (so, saving $2.5k compared to ICE)
- Electricity is 11c/kWh
- Gas is over $4/Gallon

The other thing is - we should make a comparison assuming battery will go below 70% soon after capacity warranty expires.

Click to expand...

Right, the study I referenced included the effects of subsidies on the TCO, and also showed the effects of electricity and gas prices. I don't doubt that some of the lowest TCOs in the U.S. are in the PNW, although the study assumed that batteries would be leased for four years to eliminate the climate variable. The main point to take away from the study is that currently, in no country do BEVs or PHEVs have a lower four year TCO without government subsidies. Until they do, making a generally applicable economic argument is a bad idea.

roperld said:

Nissan has stated that the average LEAF driver can expect the LEAF battery to lose about 20% of its capacity in 5 years and about 30% of its capacity in 10 years.

Click to expand...

Excuse me for a minute while I lol.

lol

Ok, now that that's over with... EOL in 10 years may happen in Juneau, Alaska- where the average high during the hottest part of the summer is a whopping 64F. Outside of places like that, 30% in 10 years isn't going to happen. For most of us, it will be 5-7 years. To be fair, price comparisons should be based on 5 years, 60,000 miles, which is the limit at which Nissan warranties the battery capacity.

In general, this is a good way to compare and based on this, it really does show the Leaf as a good value.

There are a lot of assumptions in this analysis. Any one of them could be off a little (or perhaps quite a bit) here or there based on your exact situation and the evolution of the world. But it still shows the Leaf as a good deal.

You could also consider Leaf vs ICE resale value after life in the comparison. The Leaf may not fare well in that comparison. We'll have to see what happens in that regard. Fortunately, based on time value of money, you shouldn't put too much concern into value of your purchase 10 years down the road.

You could also consider that the Leaf will not do long trips, so you may put less miles on your Leaf and more on your second car (if you own one), depending on your particular situation, or you might be stuck unable to make certain trips in the Leaf that you could in an ICE. How would you account for that?

Then, to make things even more complex, you could consider pollution and the long-term cost of that on this planet and every person who breathes the air and pays taxes (and fights wars, works in the petroleum industry, and...)

Bob

Bob said:

In general, this is a good way to compare and based on this, it really does show the Leaf as a good value.

There are a lot of assumptions in this analysis. Any one of them could be off a little (or perhaps quite a bit) here or there based on your exact situation and the evolution of the world. But it still shows the Leaf as a good deal.

You could also consider Leaf vs ICE resale value after life in the comparison. The Leaf may not fare well in that comparison. We'll have to see what happens in that regard. Fortunately, based on time value of money, you shouldn't put too much concern into value of your purchase 10 years down the road. <snip rest>

Click to expand...

As to that, via IEVs: "Used Nissan LEAF, Chevy Volt On Top 10 Biggest Depreciation List":

http://insideevs.com/used-nissan-leaf-chevy-volt-top-10-biggest-depreciation-list/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This predates the announcement of a price for the LEAF's battery, so we'll have to see whether that will boost the value of the LEAF.