Buy now or wait for 2016 LEAF?

Hi guys, prospective owner. I've been lurking for a while and really excited to finally get a leaf.

I'm looking at the lease deals now and they are really appealing, but I've been trying to hold out for the 2016 with longer range. Just looking for your guys' input. I have a 60 mile round trip commute to work so I really wanted to hold out to give me more of a buffer. What do you guys think?

Thanks!

If you are going to buy the current incentives are really good. The lease deals aren't so good compared to the past. So if you are planning on leasing, it makes sense to wait. Update your profile with your location so more specific advice can be given. Estimate Nissan will have more info in a month. Previous rumor from autonews suggest the new Leaf will go into production this month and available at first dealers next month.

DanCar said:

If you are going to buy the current incentives are really good. The lease deals aren't so good compared to the past. So if you are planning on leasing, it makes sense to wait. Update your profile with your location so more specific advice can be given. Estimate Nissan will have more info in a month. Previous rumor from autonews suggest the new Leaf will go into production this month and available at first dealers next month.

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Good advice.

Any idea on when the 2015 was available on the lots? Unless I am mistaken, the 2014 wasn't available until December 2013. My local dealer in Texas didn't have any 2014s until the middle of January 2014.

I have a 2015 with a 90 mile round trip commute. If I drive carefully in the summer/spring/fall I can do it round trip on 1 charge. I do have a 10hr L1 charge at work which gives me about 40-50% and that lets me do it carefree as long as the temps tee shirt appropriate.

If you have an L2 charger at work a 2015 will work for you in all weather.

In extreme winter temps I usually stop for a 10-15 min quick charge on the way in when the battery is hot just to avoid the possibility of stopping for a slower L2 for 30 min plus if I can`t make it back home. The most it`s ever taken me in -30C temps to get 45 miles to work is around 80%.

So if your temps don`t get below freezing much then you`re good. I`ll assume you`re looking at an SV or SL with the heat pump since those are the ones with the larger battery rumour.

The other thing to consider if the deals are good now then when the 2016 is announced and there are still 2015s left the deals should get better. If you`re a gambler the lease it now and buy it later could come with a $6000+ bonus at the end.

rurbizto said:

... I have a 60 mile round trip commute to work so I really wanted to hold out to give me more of a buffer. What do you guys think?

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I would hold out.
The 30 kWh SV or SL will make a lot of difference in the long run.

Thanks for the advice guys. I will try to wait out this month and hope they announce the 2016 soon. I'm planning to lease and then pick up either a Model 3, Bolt, or gen 2 Leaf.

rurbizto said:

I will try to wait out this month and hope they announce the 2016 soon. I'm planning to lease and then pick up either a Model 3, Bolt, or gen 2 Leaf.

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...at which time you will be advised to wait for the "Model 4, Jolt, or Gen 3 Leaf"! There will always be something new...

rurbizto said:

Thanks for the advice guys. I will try to wait out this month and hope they announce the 2016 soon. I'm planning to lease and then pick up either a Model 3, Bolt, or gen 2 Leaf.

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If you were going to buy I'd agree with the others that you should wait for the 30 kWh 2016. But if you are going to lease for two to three years, a 2015 might do fine for a 60 mile commute for that time period in a warm climate. And then you turn it in and check out what's available in long range EVs.

Either way, I'd suggest waiting to see what the pricing for the 2016s is and then check for close-out prices on the remaining 2015s. If you can't get a screaming deal on a 2015 you can go with a 2016, although there won't be much in the way of deals at first, I would guess.

dgpcolorado said:

rurbizto said:

Thanks for the advice guys. I will try to wait out this month and hope they announce the 2016 soon. I'm planning to lease and then pick up either a Model 3, Bolt, or gen 2 Leaf.

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If you were going to buy I'd agree with the others that you should wait for the 30 kWh 2016. But if you are going to lease for two to three years, a 2015 might do fine for a 60 mile commute for that time period in a warm climate. And then you turn it in and check out what's available in long range EVs.

Either way, I'd suggest waiting to see what the pricing for the 2016s is and then check for close-out prices on the remaining 2015s. If you can't get a screaming deal on a 2015 you can go with a 2016, although there won't be much in the way of deals at first, I would guess.

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http://www.autoblog.com/2015/08/04/heres-now-nissan-is-quietly-getting-ready-for-leaf-2-0/

There might not be that many left for clear outs. Sounds like Nissan is trying to not get stuck with them. Considering that the 2014 and 2015s were both on sale in Canada at this time in previous years (2 years ago is when I first started shopping, 1 year ago I bought a 2015) they certainly are doing it differently this year.

They are down to a 62 day supply and only made 1/5 of the usual production last month.

I agree that if the 2015 shouldn't be ruled out if it suits your needs, just wait for the best deal. Also if you are leasing close to the release of the 2016s your low capacity pack lease will be up around the same time as the high capacity 2016 leases and you might get an amazing buy out deal. If it still works for you that might make it easier to wait for a gen III ev or a better deal on a gen II.

Just my two cents, but with a commute on the long side like that, it seems to me that you're the perfect candidate for waiting until the longer-range battery comes out. Two more cents: I have a 2015, and I wouldn't be comfortable with a commute as long as yours (I worry more than most about range though).

minispeed said:

http://www.autoblog.com/2015/08/04/heres-now-nissan-is-quietly-getting-ready-for-leaf-2-0/

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That author is very confused. He thinks MY16 is Leaf 2. 'Nuff said.

I started doing some research on the Kia Soul EV as well. Looks promising, maybe I will pick one up.

evnow said:

minispeed said:

http://www.autoblog.com/2015/08/04/heres-now-nissan-is-quietly-getting-ready-for-leaf-2-0/

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That author is very confused. He thinks MY16 is Leaf 2. 'Nuff said.

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That doesn't change the 2015 production numbers or how they will affect supply/demand and deals when/if a change of some sort comes in 2016.

caSteve said:

Just my two cents, but with a commute on the long side like that, it seems to me that you're the perfect candidate for waiting until the longer-range battery comes out. Two more cents: I have a 2015, and I wouldn't be comfortable with a commute as long as yours (I worry more than most about range though).

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agree with this response. I don't know if they will have charging at the original poster's work, but they should also take into account there may be other things that come up throughout the day (such as diverting to run a few errands on the way home, etc.) and those extra kWh would help retain some flexibility in their trip planning.

rurbizto said:

I started doing some research on the Kia Soul EV as well. Looks promising, maybe I will pick one up.

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I have spoken to some folks (two of whom are industry-involved) who have gone well out of their way to pick up a Kia Soul EV (and in some cases who found the previous Leafs to be of insufficient range to get one) and are quite pleased. One of them called the vehicle a possible industry game-changer. I can't really say if it's better or worse than the 2016 Leaf will be, but it seems at least worth exploring this option, especially since Nissan seems to be taking quite a bit of time to come out with a higher-kWh Leaf.

Is the Kia Soul EV really readily available where you are? My impression is that Kia did not plan for the demand and so the vehicle has been and will be supply-constrained unless or until they can get higher production in place. However, I am not sure if this impression is updated and correct.

FWIW, I guess I'd also say with respect to the Kia Soul EV there has not been enough time yet fully to answer some of the longer-term questions that have to be asked about any EV (realistic battery degradation rate expectations, etc.).

minispeed said:

That doesn't change the 2015 production numbers or how they will affect supply/demand and deals when/if a change of some sort comes in 2016.

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It does. If we think Gen 2 will come in a couple months - it is a totally different conversation.

jlsoaz said:

rurbizto said:

I started doing some research on the Kia Soul EV as well. Looks promising, maybe I will pick one up.

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I have spoken to some folks (two of whom are industry-involved) who have gone well out of their way to pick up a Kia Soul EV (and in some cases who found the previous Leafs to be of insufficient range to get one) and are quite pleased. One of them called the vehicle a possible industry game-changer. I can't really say if it's better or worse than the 2016 Leaf will be, but it seems at least worth exploring this option, especially since Nissan seems to be taking quite a bit of time to come out with a higher-kWh Leaf.

Is the Kia Soul EV really readily available where you are? My impression is that Kia did not plan for the demand and so the vehicle has been and will be supply-constrained unless or until they can get higher production in place. However, I am not sure if this impression is updated and correct.

FWIW, I guess I'd also say with respect to the Kia Soul EV there has not been enough time yet fully to answer some of the longer-term questions that have to be asked about any EV (realistic battery degradation rate expectations, etc.).

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Thanks for the input. I actually test drove a Soul EV today and I have got to say that I am really impressed. The infotainment system, ventilated seats, and rear cargo room are excellent. I will probably lease one tomorrow. I am able to charge at work, but I think having the extra range will make me more flexible if I need to run some errands after work or go somewhere for a meeting during the day.

rurbizto said:

Thanks for the input. I actually test drove a Soul EV today and I have got to say that I am really impressed. The infotainment system, ventilated seats, and rear cargo room are excellent. I will probably lease one tomorrow. I am able to charge at work, but I think having the extra range will make me more flexible if I need to run some errands after work or go somewhere for a meeting during the day.

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No problem on the fallible input, I think it's great to employ these discussion groups to share information and ideas. I'm envious of your location in California (I am in Arizona, so at this time, from what I understand, it is not nearly as easy lease a Kia Soul EV).

I have leased a 2012 Leaf and made my payments on time. In many ways (aside from the range) would give the vehicle above-average marks and would consider getting another one, if the range issue is addressed. However, once the lease is done on this one, another possibility for me will be to go back to driving my old beater gasoline car which I own and do not have to make payments on other than maintenance and repairs, or perhaps at that time try to finance the purchase of a sub-$10k used PHEV where I can get some reasonable equity for my monthly payments, and avoid paying the depreciation on a new car. The making of lease payments which de facto incorporate the paying of depreciation on a new car, (and the significantly increased insurance monthly payments that go with moving from an old cheap gasoline beater to paying insurance on two cars one of which is a new $30k+ leased vehicle) have been a financial drag that I have noticed in terms of my household finances. This point of view sometimes may not get voiced here as we are understandably excited about attractive lease or new-car purchase deals, so I am just mentioning it.