Timing of getting my next EV

Leafpals:

Put on your Swami hats and help me read the tea leaves of the future...

I have a 2013 SV I love. 14,000 miles, 12 bars. Meets my needs. My 2 year lease is up 5/15. I am anxiously awaiting the longer range EV's such as what Nissan may do, or Tesla 3. Looks like those cars will not be available until at least 2017. So, if I extend my current lease for one more year, that would put me into May of 2016. Might be too early for the higher range cars. I could turn it in and just lease a 2015 for 2 years. That would make the window. My current lease is quite favorable, so the thought of continuing it is good, and I do like the car too. Thoughts?

dndrich said:

Leafpals:

Put on your Swami hats and help me read the tea leaves of the future...

I have a 2013 SV I love. 14,000 miles, 12 bars. Meets my needs. My 2 year lease is up 5/15. I am anxiously awaiting the longer range EV's such as what Nissan may do, or Tesla 3. Looks like those cars will not be available until at least 2017. So, if I extend my current lease for one more year, that would put me into May of 2016. Might be too early for the higher range cars. I could turn it in and just lease a 2015 for 2 years. That would make the window. My current lease is quite favorable, so the thought of continuing it is good, and I do like the car too. Thoughts?

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If you play the waiting game with cars, you will never own a car.

If you like it, keep it. If you want something new, get something new. When the newer new car comes out 2 years from now, buy that.

The point is that every future generation is better than the last.

2k1Toaster said:

dndrich said:

Leafpals:

Put on your Swami hats and help me read the tea leaves of the future...

I have a 2013 SV I love. 14,000 miles, 12 bars. Meets my needs. My 2 year lease is up 5/15. I am anxiously awaiting the longer range EV's such as what Nissan may do, or Tesla 3. Looks like those cars will not be available until at least 2017. So, if I extend my current lease for one more year, that would put me into May of 2016. Might be too early for the higher range cars. I could turn it in and just lease a 2015 for 2 years. That would make the window. My current lease is quite favorable, so the thought of continuing it is good, and I do like the car too. Thoughts?

Click to expand...

If you play the waiting game with cars, you will never own a car.

If you like it, keep it. If you want something new, get something new. When the newer new car comes out 2 years from now, buy that.

The point is that every future generation is better than the last.

Click to expand...

This is a real question for many if not most of us who have resources to manage. :|

Turnover said:

This is a real question for many if not most of us who have resources to manage. :|

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I think that's a false argument.

Lets hypothetically jump to 2016. Tesla is ahead of the game and the III is coming out in perfect time. All the stars are aligned and the car you were looking forwards to in late 2014 is now available. But wait... There are 6 new pure EV's with more range and more features and better styling and cheaper and they wash your dishes and so on and so on. But they won't be available until 2018... So do you continue to extend until 2018? Then the same thing just keeps happening...

I am in the same position...

My lease expires 9\2015... and I want the next gen Leaf...
Sadly, I don't think anything else compares at $$ for value or will be ready by then...
I have no hope for Tesla as I think it will be overpriced as all of their existing cars are today. (hope I'm wrong)
I leased my 13 Leaf at 23k and I want similar for 160+ miles.
Why? ... Well as time goes on and battery tech improves.. I expect the prices to go down not up.
I have already inquired about extending my lease to hold over for the next gen.

If Nissan makes a 160+ mile leaf... I will buy it outright.

It would be nice to know if any car manufacturer will make a $25-35k 160+ mile EV from the ground up by the end of 2015 that looks like a regular car and not one of the shoebox micro's running around?

The first one to do so will be wildly successful IMHO.

See how you feel about it when we get to 5/15.
That was easy...or am I missing something?

If it was a 2-year lease and you are under miles and you like the car, an extension has great potential. Or just put it on a buy contract and keep making payments. Until you own it outright there's a lienholder anyway so you have to satisfy the contract either way.

My Lease is up Feb 2017 and I still think this will be too early for the Tesla 3 which was my end goal. If the next gen Leaf or another vehicle comes out and looks good it will be considered but I really want my next EV to be long range so I can keep it for a significant length of time. I don't normally lease and did so as a bridge to get me to these longer range more affordable EVs that I could purchase. No point in guessing though - you have until the May 2015 to make a decision. See what announcements are made by then and make a decision.

2k1Toaster said:

Turnover said:

This is a real question for many if not most of us who have resources to manage. :|

Click to expand...

I think that's a false argument.

Lets hypothetically jump to 2016. Tesla is ahead of the game and the III is coming out in perfect time. All the stars are aligned and the car you were looking forwards to in late 2014 is now available. But wait... There are 6 new pure EV's with more range and more features and better styling and cheaper and they wash your dishes and so on and so on. But they won't be available until 2018... So do you continue to extend until 2018? Then the same thing just keeps happening...

Click to expand...

Agreed. I'm just leasing what works for me at this time. When the lease is up there may, or may not be better vehicles available. The worst that can happen is I don't have the "new hotness" the minute it comes out. But chances are that I'm not going to in either case. Better cars are coming but the timing is a guessing game. As far as Model 3, I wouldn't make any plans. While Tesla is doing amazing things, success of the Model 3 depends on a lot of factors, including the building and implementation of a successful battery Gigafactory. We have a Model X reservation (for my wife) but I'd note the car was "unveiled" in 2012 and is already a year past their initial production estimate, with deliveries now expected to *begin* in third quarter of 2015. I'm sure it will be a fantastic car but it's just too soon in the Model 3 life-cycle to be scheduling your purchase plans around it.

2k1Toaster said:

Turnover said:

This is a real question for many if not most of us who have resources to manage. :|

Click to expand...

I think that's a false argument.

Lets hypothetically jump to 2016. Tesla is ahead of the game and the III is coming out in perfect time. All the stars are aligned and the car you were looking forwards to in late 2014 is now available. But wait... There are 6 new pure EV's with more range and more features and better styling and cheaper and they wash your dishes and so on and so on. But they won't be available until 2018... So do you continue to extend until 2018? Then the same thing just keeps happening...

Click to expand...

My feeling here is that I don't need the latest and greatest. I just want about double the range so that I can go back and forth to San Francisco without needing to charge. If the Leaf can do that in 2017, or another vehicle, then I am happy with that. I would probably still lease even though usually I buy cars because of the battery technology. That is why I leased my current Leaf.

I'd wait till the end of your current lease and then lease a 2015 (or 2016, if they're out already) for three years. Remember, 3 gets you the $2,500 state rebate and 2 does not. Early 2018 you should have a LOT of good choices. Seeing an affordable 200-mile EV other than the Model S before then is highly unlikely.

mbender said:

I'd wait till the end of your current lease and then lease a 2015 (or 2016, if they're out already) for three years. Remember, 3 gets you the $2,500 state rebate and 2 does not. Early 2018 you should have a LOT of good choices. Seeing an affordable 200-mile EV other than the Model S before then is highly unlikely.

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This is probably what I will do. Now, regards the $2500 rebate, it actually penciled out better with the 2 year lease when I did it even without that rebate. Total cost of ownership was less. It was odd. So I went for 2 years.

Flashman said:

I have no hope for Tesla as I think it will be overpriced as all of their existing cars are today. (hope I'm wrong).

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Well, you are already "wrong".
Seriously, you believe the Tesla Model S is overpriced?
Just because a prospective buyer can't afford it doesn't mean it's overpriced, it simply is priced above their ability to pay.

At $100K it is an expensive car, but so is it's direct competition, namely Mercedes S and BMW 7, and it's effectively sold out without any direct advertising. The market says it's not overpriced.

Have you been in one? Test driven it? There is no comparison with your Leaf, or my Smart ED. The Model S is exceptional, in performance, size, cargo capacity, luxury, service/support and many other metrics.

Now, let's get back to the topic at hand, how long we have to wait for the Tesla 3, as that is the next car for a lot of us...

SmartElectric said:

...Now, let's get back to the topic at hand, how long we have to wait for the Tesla 3, as that is the next car for a lot of us...

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Yes, the Model 3 is the one I am waiting for. A 150 mile LEAF still won't be able to do long distance trips so it has only marginally improved utility over my current LEAF.

Given the question posed by the OP, I guess I am glad that I purchased my LEAF (and got a generous $5400 Colorado tax credit in addition to the federal one). Whether it takes three years (or four, or five) for the Model 3 to come out makes little difference to me. And if the Model 3 turns out to be too expensive or doesn't meet specifications or doesn't come out at all, I can just keep my LEAF going until something significantly better does hit the market.

If it makes more financial sense to lease a 2015, do that. If it would cost less to extend the 2013 lease, allowing for one bar loss, do that. I got lucky with a low payment in 2013 that was never really repeated, so I'm keeping my Leaf until I have to turn it in, for one reason or another.

LeftieBiker said:

If it makes more financial sense to lease a 2015, do that. If it would cost less to extend the 2013 lease, allowing for one bar loss, do that. I got lucky with a low payment in 2013 that was never really repeated, so I'm keeping my Leaf until I have to turn it in, for one reason or another.

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I can easily extend the lease for one more year. I don't think they will extend them for 2 more years. So, if I extend for one more year, then in 2016 I am likely to find that there still does not exist a longer range car. That is the issue. So, that is why I ponder turning in my car to get another 2 year lease of a 2015, and if nothing is ready in 2017, extend that lease. I am perfectly happy with my 2013. It meets my needs just fine. But it would be even better with about 150 miles of range.

Look at it this way: if the status quo is unchanged in 2016, the 2015 leaf will still be around to lease, and will likely be cheaper than now. You can lease one then for two years, and extend one year if needed to get to 2018. The only times extending a lease a year doesn't make sense is if the payment isn't low or the car can't do like you need, as in the case of bar losses that exceed your range needs.

dndrich said:

This is probably what I will do. Now, regards the $2500 rebate, it actually penciled out better with the 2 year lease when I did it even without that rebate. Total cost of ownership was less. It was odd. So I went for 2 years.

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Another factor to consider is a recent change in the CA law meaning you only get the $2,500 rebate TWICE in your lifetime. Might be worth it trading from a 2011 or 2012 to a 2015, but I wouldn't use up your rebate to go from a 2013 to a 2015 model.

My lease ends in Jan of 2017 and if I had to guess there will be a 150+ mile Leaf 2.0 available around that time. I have no hope for even a $40k Tesla Model III, much less a supercharger enabled one with any level of equipment whatsoever.

I just extended our $99/month lease for 6 months. We'll see where things are in May 2015 and likely extend it another 6 months. As long as we can do this our original $4000 lease down payment continues to work for us and doesn't become a stranded investment. Doing this our former ICE budget also pays for retirement travel expenses.

For us it is a matter of getting a 150 mile range balanced against an amount we set aside for a purchase ... and taking into account our ages. If we can get the range we will likely start out with a year lease to capture the tax benefit through the lease. This could be our last car. We can't just buy one car after another to climb the range/accessory chart and keep a balanced budget and cautious retirement portfolio. :|

SmartElectric said:

Flashman said:

I have no hope for Tesla as I think it will be overpriced as all of their existing cars are today. (hope I'm wrong).

Click to expand...

Well, you are already "wrong".
Seriously, you believe the Tesla Model S is overpriced?
Just because a prospective buyer can't afford it doesn't mean it's overpriced, it simply is priced above their ability to pay.

At $100K it is an expensive car, but so is it's direct competition, namely Mercedes S and BMW 7, and it's effectively sold out without any direct advertising. The market says it's not overpriced.

Have you been in one? Test driven it? There is no comparison with your Leaf, or my Smart ED. The Model S is exceptional, in performance, size, cargo capacity, luxury, service/support and many other metrics.

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I disagree.
Yes, Seriously... it's overpriced!
Your confused quote:

"Just because a prospective buyer can't afford it doesn't mean it's overpriced, it simply is priced above their ability to pay."

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Who said anything about not being able to afford it?
Your assumption and perception of if a buyer has enough money to purchase has nothing to do with being actually overpriced vs. manufacturing cost & Value for the dollars spent...
Based on your logic; Because Warren Buffet can afford to purchase several small countries, a fair price for Warrens new Model S might be half a million... sound fair? Give me a break.

The Battery cost for Teslas are now typically less than 25% of the overall purchase price. (and that was roughly a year ago, likely cheaper now and more so after the 'giga factory' is in place)
see: http://insideevs.com/tesla-battery-...less-than-a-quarter-of-the-car-in-most-cases/

This has dropped from roughly half of what the original costs were... Teslas margins have increased greatly and they have not passed along any savings. I don't blame them however for getting what the market will bare and realize they need to pay for existing R&D\engineering costs, but it still equates to value vs. cost for the consumer. Consumers don't care about your car companies backlogged costs for development and you can't tell me a model S sans battery justifys the left over $75k?. Consumers do care about their investment vs. what they get \ resale. Try to get a base model S for less than an equivalent base BMW 7 or Mercedes S... I would bet you can't and Tesla has neither the clout or the established brand... The only reason Tesla can demand the price is they have no real competition in the same market... The 'BMW 7' & the 'Mercedes S' are ICE cars after all. ...yeah, overpriced. And as for the model S being sold out; how many model S's are available for purchase vs BMW & Mercedes? Mercedes on average for the W221 \ W222 are 60-80,000 cars a year sold average. BMW (F01), similar... Compare that to Tesla's ~18,000 to 20,000 total sold in all of 2013.. Tesla currently can't come close to manufacturing those numbers. So saying the Model S is sold out is not really relevant at all.
BMW or Mercedes could produce a Tesla equivalent for less margin as they have the financial clout and leverage of a much larger business model.

But I was not talking or wanting to debate about the S or it's high margins... I am talking about whatever Tesla releases to compete with the worlds best selling EV... The Leaf! If Tesla produces an equal or better car (at least twice the range and matches or bests the Leaf in features \ style and ride) for the same or 'slightly' higher justifiable pricing than a Leaf... I will eat my hat.
Let me help you... they won't, and the whole point of my post was to find an upcoming EV to equally replace a Leaf for ~roughly the same cost (within reason) and with twice the range...
I'm betting my hat Tesla won't \ can't do this... I am waiting for someone who will.

Flashman said:

SmartElectric said:

Flashman said:

I have no hope for Tesla as I think it will be overpriced as all of their existing cars are today. (hope I'm wrong).

Click to expand...

Well, you are already "wrong".

Click to expand...

I disagree.
Yes, Seriously... it's overpriced!
I'm betting my hat Tesla won't \ can't do this... I am waiting for someone who will.

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I'll see your hat and raise you one feather! As you said (at first), I'm hoping Tesla delivers on their promise(s), and hope to see a LEAF version 2.0 on the market at the same time. Both < $40k. If Nissan gets there first, all the better... to put more pressure on Tesla.