What about this plan?

OK. Here's the deal.
I have a 2013 SV with 22,500+ miles. 17 months into 24 month lease (18k miles per year lease).
I have not capacity bars missing (no, I don't have a meter)
I am hoping the 2016 Leaf will have a bigger range option and available in mid summer 2015 (like the 2015s were).
Maybe extend my lease a few months and get one of those on a 3 year lease until either the Model III is out or something else compelling comes along.
I am very happy about how the car and battery are performing.
SO. I was considering should I BUY the next leaf and drive it for 3 years until I give it to my son to drive (he'll be 16 then) or do I lease it and then look for a used EV on the market at that time? (Yes, he wants an electric car. I have brainwashed him well).
Of course some of my concerns are the battery state at that point (I am down to 12,000 miles a year now),so the car will have about 36,000 when he inherits it.
Also, is the cost of a replacement battery (will they still be subsidized by Nissan).
And what about when he goes off to college? If there isn't a charging capability there, what do I do with a 5 yr old EV?

Lux,
Having just sent off a kid to college with a gas car I would be concerned about how to best handle having an EV on campus. For example I went to KU (university of kansas) and while I used the car every week it was usually only 20 miles or so. I was only filling up the escort like once a month or less. Given that you don't want to sit on the battery at high or low state of charge and who knows what the charging infrastructure will be like, the question really remains, would the potential hassle of life on campus with a little used vehicle be a problem? What about charging off campus at an apartment? I'm giving consideration to giving my youngest my 2012 Leaf when he goes to school in a couple years but the core concern remains on the battery and charging. There are really too many unknowns at this time and each school is going to have a different experience. My co-workers who went to K-State were driving constantly but my friends at KU hardly ever drove and some didn't even have cars. They weren't needed. One last question, where will he go to school? From KC to KState that's 130 miles with no DCQC in between. You can't make it on the interstate at all. Back roads require leaving Topeka at 100% especially on a degraded pack. I did that round trip in 17 hours on a 5% degraded pack. Not sure how long would take today with a bar down on capacity.

Good luck on whatever you decide.

Ksnogas2112,
See your point about how much use. It's been awhile since I was in college. Maybe if I buy my next one he can just use it til the end of high school after I get a tesla
But why would we want to give him a car that would allow him to drive all the way home?

LUXMAN said:

But why would we want to give him a car that would allow him to drive all the way home?

Click to expand...

Good point. When I was in college I would ride my bike home (40 miles each way) to see the folks.

PS No snow was involved on the trip, but I could add some to make the story better.

Stoaty,
Not to change my own subject but you have
"Capacity Loss Predicted - 19.3% Actual - 19.6%" on your signature line.
Over 32000 miles? really????
I have no bars missing and over 22,700 miles in 17 months.
I see the link to the battery report and will read it when I can, but do you think your losses are time related or cycles or mileage?

LUXMAN said:

Stoaty,
Not to change my own subject but you have
"Capacity Loss Predicted - 19.3% Actual - 19.6%" on your signature line.
Over 32000 miles? really????
I have no bars missing and over 22,700 miles in 17 months.
I see the link to the battery report and will read it when I can, but do you think your losses are time related or cycles or mileage?

Click to expand...

Note that this is over 39 months. Most of my loss per battery aging model is due to calendar aging.

Ok. I will read the report.
Are you showing 2 bars missing then?
And what kinda real world range are you getting now?

LUXMAN said:

Are you showing 2 bars missing then?
And what kinda real world range are you getting now?

Click to expand...

No, I have one bar missing. Have 53.25 Ah capacity, second bar goes around 51-51.5 from most people (if I recall correctly).

Real world range is 100 miles (recently got this much by accident when I forgot to charge, but decided to take the Leaf anyway), but that is with very careful driving and not exceeding 50 MPH:

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=17933" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

That said, I can get 80 miles with moderate careful driving without breaking a sweat.

LUXMAN said:

Stoaty,
Not to change my own subject but you have
"Capacity Loss Predicted - 19.3% Actual - 19.6%" on your signature line.
Over 32000 miles? really????
I have no bars missing and over 22,700 miles in 17 months.
I see the link to the battery report and will read it when I can, but do you think your losses are time related or cycles or mileage?

Click to expand...

Lux,
You're sniffing at a bar loss any week now. I went 26 months and 27k miles up here before I lost the bar. Depending on how long and how hot the Dallas summer's have been you're probably right close the 85% capacity.

OK. So if you only have 80% capacity, how did you go 100 miles the other day? That's hard anyday, even with a new battery. Maybe at 40 mph but not the way I need to use a car. But I am encouraged that I can still drive it as far as day 1.
So looking at the aging model, if I bought a car to drive for 3 years and then my kid drives it 2 yrs in High School, I would have 65 to 70% capacity left (maybe). So 60 to 65 mile range max? that's not good.
I was looking online. I can but a 3 yr old leaf (yes it is a 2011 and slightly different) for $14k with low low mile and 12 bars showing. My leaf would have been $24.5k if I had bought vs. lease after tax rebate. So lose $10-12k in 3 years. I can lease it for less than that. So, why even buy then?

LUXMAN said:

OK. So if you only have 80% capacity, how did you go 100 miles the other day? That's hard anyday, even with a new battery. Maybe at 40 mph but not the way I need to use a car.

Click to expand...

By driving very carefully using the techniques described here:

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=5508" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Note that due to freeway traffic it was often possible to drive at 30-50 mph without impeding traffic.