lorenfb said:
...
Another one who fails to understand the BEV market segments. Nissan has targeted the Leaf to compete with ICE
vehicles as a economic commuter vehicle, i.e. for the typical daily city driving range needed. Nissan could easily
add additional battery capacity like Tesla, but the resulting vehicle cost would no longer be considered as a viable
alternate to ICE vehicles, e.g. Honda, or hybrids such as the Prius. The Tesla is just a 'brute-force' solution to
a BEV that any auto manufacturer could have produced."
Actually, I used to be idealistic like that, but my conclusion has changed with real world experience over time with the Leaf. I've been at this for several years, so what I'm saying isn't just Tesla fanboyism but it is of course, just my opinion. My latest Leaf has 6K miles on it and can't even do a round trip to the airport (about 50 miles) on a single charge, after just one year! I would suggest that the Leaf is the worst EV in this respect. there is no ICE vehicle that looses range with age like this, Nissan has failed with respect to battery life. Sure, some of it will come back with warmer weather, but each year, less and less of it will. Even with a brand new Leaf, the range is too limited. there is a reason that gas cars get 300+ miles of range, because conditions vary and occasionally you need/want to go much further than your daily commute. cold, rain, sleet, snow, wind, elevation all take their toll on range. The Leaf's range can very as much as 50% depending on conditions! I think 150 to 200 miles is going to turn out to be the lowest new battery range limit for a mass market EV. That may sound like a lot but lets be realistic, in the worst of conditions, without temperature management, a 200 mile Leaf will get more like 100 miles of range. If charged only to 80%, call it 90 miles and that is new. most people want to arrive home with some extra miles in the tank or they get stressed. Put a few years on that battery and you could easily see a 20% drop further and as some are finding out, that range loss doesn't level out, it can accelerate with time. We all hoped that quick chargers would fill the gap but so far, CHAdeMO turns out to be pretty unreliable, not user friendly. the stations that do work, can all too often end up with long lines. a larger battery would mean less reliance on public chargers. I try my best to get out of the early adopter mind set and imagine if any of this would be acceptable to the mainstream, because that is what is necessary to gain mass acceptance and disruptive sales numbers. So far, Nissan has missed the mark.
lorenfb said:
- In the long run, Tesla is the only manufacturer of EV's that appears to be truly positioning itself to disrupt the gas car industry. If Nissan doesn't figure out a way, very soon, to dramatically increase the range of their vehicles, they are in big trouble, IMHO."
Dream-on!
(1)There's no significant technologies that Tesla has that other auto manufacturers don't have access to.
(2)Besides, Tesla lacks; economies of scale, a key ecosystem, key patents, dealer networks, etc.
(3)Tesla has 'tapped-into' a very high end inelastic product market where the typical buyer is totally unconcerned
about making an economic purchase decision when buying a means of transportation.
(1) Actually, that is not correct, 135 kW charging through a sleek, single plug is far beyond the industry standard (nearly 3x CHAdeMO). Also, the batteries are holding up very well in terms of range. but much of what Tesla is using to get ahead, is the way it's compounding available technology on top of their true advancements.
(2)Tesla is taking a very different approach to achieving economy of scale, from the top down and it appears to be working so far. By eliminating dealer networks, they leverage the money saved by having no middle man into value delivered. By eliminating the dealership model, they get to do things like spend the several thousand dollars per car on the nationwide/global "free for life" charging network. Economy of scale has already brought the in house cost of batteries to something like $250 a kW, well below the industry standard. Tesla is on the verge of announcing plans for their gigafactory, which, if successful, will give them the edge over battery production, allowing them to mass produce batteries on a scale never before seen in the industry. they are betting the farm on this providing the economy of scale necessary to provide a long range, economical car for the masses that can rival gas car production levels.
(3) maybe I'm not typical, but the value proposition was/is a considerable in my decision. It's hard to find a car on the market that looses residual value like the Leaf. The only way Nissan is maintaining sales is by offering great lease deals. The Tesla S is holding up quite well in terms of residual value, Tesla even guarantees the residual value! For me the original equation I used for justifying the Tesla S was remarkably compelling. we have a family of four, we were looking to replace our 7 passenger hybrid Toyota Highlander, it cost around $50 K with local sales tax and about $3,000 a year to fuel, or $30K over a ten year period. A loaded 85 kW Tesla S is roughly $92K with state sales tax exemption and federal rebate, minus fuel savings and free super charging on road trips, making it around $62K for a ten year period. We figured the $12K delta between an 85kW Tesla S and hylander was quite justifiable for a couple of reasons. We were willing to pay some premium to support a company that was truly revolutionizing the auto industry and we knew we would enjoy the near super car performance... for us, we were right, actually, it feels like a deal! Honestly, it's hard to beat the value of a Tesla Model S with respect to performance. Our second car is our Leaf. at the end of the Lease we will look at what Nissan has to offer vs the competition and likely buy the longest range EV offered in the $30K range. I haven't totally given up on Nissan yet, but they need to step up to the plate more in terms of lasting range to keep us as customers and they need to make dramatic advancements to compete in the coming years with the likes of Tesla and their gen III coming in just a few years.
