GRA
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Re: GCC: LowCVP LCA study finds matching battery size with vehicle use is crucial for the environment

Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:07 pm

Zythryn wrote:But I do believe you are belittling, or to put it mildly, understating, Tesla’s current contributions.

No, he's just saying that the ultimate market for cars (which are currently selling for an average price not far short of $60k*) isn't mass market and never will be (in constant dollars), and that once the initial pent-up demand for the Model 3 is gone, you simply won't be able to sell them or any other car with a similar price in the sustained numbers necessary to be mass market. that's not a denigration or belittling of Tesla, it's just a fact. As noted previously elsewhere:
New Cars Unaffordable in All Major U.S. Cities
https://www.bankrate.com/pdfs/pr/20160630-Car-Affordability.pdf

*https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/23/tesla-model-3-average-selling-price-asp-59300-surveys-find/
Last edited by GRA on Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

DarthPuppy
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Re: GCC: LowCVP LCA study finds matching battery size with vehicle use is crucial for the environment

Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:12 pm

Zythryn wrote:
DarthPuppy wrote:I do like their cars and they have done great things to advance the state of the EV market. However, they are not the magic bullet.


But I do believe you are belittling, or to put it mildly, understating, Tesla’s current contributions.


Sorry, I don't see how I'm belittling or understating their contributions. Should I have stated "magnificant" things to advance the state of the EV market??? Or should I use Trump speak and say they have done many, many, many great and glorious things and Musk is a such an incredible genius and a really great guy? Or do I need to drink the Kool-Aid and agree they are the magic bullet and no other viewpoint is rational?

Sorry, but I'm a realist.
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SageBrush
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Location: Colorado

Re: GCC: LowCVP LCA study finds matching battery size with vehicle use is crucial for the environment

Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:13 pm

You are simply ignoring the most basic fact: Tesla accounts for the lion's share of *EV growth in the USA.

PHEV + small-battery sales is little more than a zero sum game that is a tiny part of car sales. I suppose just my opinion, but I think LEAF type sales have flat-lined in the USA and PHEV will only amount to an important product if fuel costs increase dramatically for an extended period -- say over $4 a gallon.

I have my doubts that Model 3 sales can be sustained or grow in the USA when the federal tax credit drops to half current or less, but the present sales picture rather clearly shows what Americans *want.*
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
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-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

DarthPuppy
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Re: GCC: LowCVP LCA study finds matching battery size with vehicle use is crucial for the environment

Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:25 pm

I haven't ignored that data point. But I'm also aware that there is much more relevant and important data to be considered.

For instance, the largest car market in the US is the under $30k price point. Tesla has zero car sales in that market. It would appear that you are cherry picking one fact and ignoring many facts to get to your position. To really get mass market adoption, we got to get to that price range.

In 2018, that under $30k price point will be about 3 million units in the US alone, probably more as I stopped adding the YTD column after the top 15 models - all available under $30k.

And I concur on what Americans 'want'. But that isn't what the masses are buying. They can't afford it so they settle on the under $30k market as an adequate product. Ignoring that reality is not a good way to create realistic strategies in support of EV adoption.

I'm not saying Tesla is bad or shouldn't exist as an option. It has its niche. And the Model 3 is expanding that niche to a lower price point than their prior models - and that is getting well received by that new market niche as the data clearly shows. And the SR version will further expand that to yet another market segment. Hopefully they will do another model that brings their wonderful products into an even lower price point. But even if Tesla had 100% of the current EV and PHEV marketshare, they would still be a niche product. Having the lions' share of a small niche doesn't translate into widespread adoption. Having an adequate product under $30k is where that potential will have to play out. The masses simply can't afford over $30k cars. Therefore, the masses won't be switching to EV if that is the only product because, gee, that is what the well-heeled early adopters liked and therefore is what the market will demand.

On the plus side, Tesla sales are expanding nicely and as they resolve their capacity issues, should continue to do so. So, yes, they likely will continue to have the lions' share of the current and imminent EV market. But having options that include smaller batteries and PHEV that pitch to that under $30k market will get some on board who can't or won't pay that much of a premium. And each of those units will help in the conversion from gas and help cut emissions now, rather than [what's the latest estimate for Tesla delivering a product under $30k?]
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DarthPuppy
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Re: GCC: LowCVP LCA study finds matching battery size with vehicle use is crucial for the environment

Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:38 pm

One other nice plus for Tesla that I will give them credit for but don't recall anyone else citing:

I suspect their P100D with the ludicous mode or whatever it is called has likely gotten some people to buy a Tesla who otherwise would have bought one of those V8 - V12 monstrosities with 500+ hp. Each of those monsters has got to be far worse for gas consumption and emissions than a Corolla. I really appreciate Tesla cutting into those sales. So this is one aspect where the niche they are pitching to is a big plus.
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