Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:05 pm

lorenfb wrote:InsideEVs May M3 update; https://insideevs.com/news/352626/ev-sa ... -may-2019/

Summary:

1. 2019 YTD (5 months) M3 U.S. - 46K
2. 2019 YTD Average per month - 9K
3. 2018 Q4 M3 U.S. - 62K, average per month - 20K
4. May 2019 M3 U.S. - 14K

Conclusion - Three months in 2018 outsold five months in 2019. M3 YTD U.S. demand compared to 2018 Q4 is weak.


As jlv stated, total spin job.

If you want to claim that North American demand for model 3 has peaked at 50k per quarter (200k per year), then own it!

But you wouldn't want to claim that would you? After all, the short thesis of "limited demand" would be crushed once deliveries exceeds that number, much like how model S demand exceeded projections back in 2015.

It's okay though, once the model Y is produced in volume, I agree that the model 3 sales will be limited, as there's a general preference for CUVs over sedans.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
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mtndrew1
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:11 pm

Car sales of all propulsion types, segments, and brands are generally reported as year-over-year for a variety of reasons. Car sales are more seasonal than other purchases (tax refunds, tax credits, school year beginning/ending, etc all influence auto sales). EVs in particular are extremely seasonal.

Nissan reports YoY, as do virtually all automakers, and you can see that here

https://usa.nissannews.com/en-US/releas ... 9-us-sales

And here

https://pressroom.toyota.com/releases/m ... t.download

Every month in 2019 has seen a dramatic increase in Model 3 sales as compared to the same in 2018.

At this point in the 2018 reporting cycle Tesla had delivered 17,930 Model 3s in the US. At the same point in 2019 they have delivered 46,425 Model 3s in the US and have simultaneously begun delivering substantial numbers of Model 3s in the EU and China.

YoY sales of the Model 3 in the US have increased nearly 2.6x, not including sales in Canada, the EU, and China.
2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range (100% charge @ 25k miles shows 1.3% degradation)

2013 Nissan Leaf S + QC sold with warranty pack replacement (~35% degradation @ ~40k miles)

2015 Kia Soul EV+ Lease returned 10/14/17 45,000 miles w/ 13.8% degradation.

GRA
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:43 pm

mtndrew1 wrote:Car sales of all propulsion types, segments, and brands are generally reported as year-over-year for a variety of reasons. Car sales are more seasonal than other purchases (tax refunds, tax credits, school year beginning/ending, etc all influence auto sales). EVs in particular are extremely seasonal.

Every month in 2019 has seen a dramatic increase in Model 3 sales as compared to the same in 2018.

At this point in the 2018 reporting cycle Tesla had delivered 17,930 Model 3s in the US. At the same point in 2019 they have delivered 46,425 Model 3s in the US and have simultaneously begun delivering substantial numbers of Model 3s in the EU and China.

YoY sales of the Model 3 in the US have increased nearly 2.6x, not including sales in Canada, the EU, and China.

You are comparing a period during which Tesla was still ramping M3 production up in all of 2018 to meet U.S. back orders, so the Y-o-Y numbers won't be directly comparable. Only when we get into the fall and winter periods will we know beyond any doubt how demand is holding up.

Model S/X are a different matter: Model S sales are down about a third (1,025 May 2019 vs. 1,520 in May 2018) YoY, Model X is only down about 5% (1,375/1,450), so the latter is basically flat, and both are down a fair amount for the total of the first five months YoY, so it's fair to conclude that demand has been satisfied for them. And the e-Tron's sales jumped from 253 to 856 in its second month of availability, so it will be interesting to see if that's just satisfying initial demand or whether it will overtake the X. Then there's the EQC arriving later this year, which will provide even more competition for the X.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:43 pm

GRA wrote:
mtndrew1 wrote:Car sales of all propulsion types, segments, and brands are generally reported as year-over-year for a variety of reasons. Car sales are more seasonal than other purchases (tax refunds, tax credits, school year beginning/ending, etc all influence auto sales). EVs in particular are extremely seasonal.

Every month in 2019 has seen a dramatic increase in Model 3 sales as compared to the same in 2018.

At this point in the 2018 reporting cycle Tesla had delivered 17,930 Model 3s in the US. At the same point in 2019 they have delivered 46,425 Model 3s in the US and have simultaneously begun delivering substantial numbers of Model 3s in the EU and China.

YoY sales of the Model 3 in the US have increased nearly 2.6x, not including sales in Canada, the EU, and China.

You are comparing a period during which Tesla was still ramping M3 production up in all of 2018 to meet U.S. back orders, so the Y-o-Y numbers won't be directly comparable. Only when we get into the fall and winter periods will we know beyond any doubt how demand is holding up.

Model S/X are a different matter: Model S sales are down about a third (1,025 May 2019 vs. 1,520 in May 2018) YoY, Model X is only down about 5% (1,375/1,450), so the latter is basically flat, and both are down a fair amount for the total of the first five months YoY, so it's fair to conclude that demand has been satisfied for them. And the e-Tron's sales jumped from 253 to 856 in its second month of availability, so it will be interesting to see if that's just satisfying initial demand or whether it will overtake the X. Then there's the EQC arriving later this year, which will provide even more competition for the X.


Everyone knows why S sales are down but don't mention that. The EQC , seriously? LOL.

GRA
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:04 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:
GRA wrote:You are comparing a period during which Tesla was still ramping M3 production up in all of 2018 to meet U.S. back orders, so the Y-o-Y numbers won't be directly comparable. Only when we get into the fall and winter periods will we know beyond any doubt how demand is holding up.

Model S/X are a different matter: Model S sales are down about a third (1,025 May 2019 vs. 1,520 in May 2018) YoY, Model X is only down about 5% (1,375/1,450), so the latter is basically flat, and both are down a fair amount for the total of the first five months YoY, so it's fair to conclude that demand has been satisfied for them. And the e-Tron's sales jumped from 253 to 856 in its second month of availability, so it will be interesting to see if that's just satisfying initial demand or whether it will overtake the X. Then there's the EQC arriving later this year, which will provide even more competition for the X.

Everyone knows why S sales are down but don't mention that. The EQC , seriously? LOL.

The first look/drive reviews I've seen of the EQC are quite good, and judging by them alone (and still waiting on EPA numbers and full tests), If I had to choose between it, the e-Tron and the Model X I'd go for the EQC, as it meets more of my requirements/wants, or at least comes closer than the others. None of them is seriously on my radar owing to their size and price, and Model Y, whenever it happens to arrive, is likewise too big and expensive.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:08 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:It's okay though, once the model Y is produced in volume, I agree that the model 3 sales will be limited, as there's a general preference for CUVs over sedans.


It's always the next model, as Tesla's savior, right?
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F (35C), min discharge (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 25%, temp < 105F

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:20 pm

lorenfb wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:It's okay though, once the model Y is produced in volume, I agree that the model 3 sales will be limited, as there's a general preference for CUVs over sedans.


It's always the next model, as Tesla's savior, right?


Ha! Another wonderful spin job! Never mind that the model Y is a continuation of the "Secret Master Plan part Deux", because that wouldn't fit the short thesis.

It must be "tesla's savior"! - Did I lay the sarcasm on thick enough there?

The model Y is just business as usual, and that business will produce what you so dearly hope for - a limit to model 3 demand. Until then, don't be so obvious with your spin jobs.
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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:39 pm

GRA wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:
GRA wrote:You are comparing a period during which Tesla was still ramping M3 production up in all of 2018 to meet U.S. back orders, so the Y-o-Y numbers won't be directly comparable. Only when we get into the fall and winter periods will we know beyond any doubt how demand is holding up.

Model S/X are a different matter: Model S sales are down about a third (1,025 May 2019 vs. 1,520 in May 2018) YoY, Model X is only down about 5% (1,375/1,450), so the latter is basically flat, and both are down a fair amount for the total of the first five months YoY, so it's fair to conclude that demand has been satisfied for them. And the e-Tron's sales jumped from 253 to 856 in its second month of availability, so it will be interesting to see if that's just satisfying initial demand or whether it will overtake the X. Then there's the EQC arriving later this year, which will provide even more competition for the X.

Everyone knows why S sales are down but don't mention that. The EQC , seriously? LOL.

The first look/drive reviews I've seen of the EQC are quite good, and judging by them alone (and still waiting on EPA numbers and full tests), If I had to choose between it, the e-Tron and the Model X I'd go for the EQC, as it meets more of my requirements/wants, or at least comes closer than the others. None of them is seriously on my radar owing to their size and price, and Model Y, whenever it happens to arrive, is likewise too big and expensive.


Would you like to bet that it has no impact on Tesla sales worth mentioning? S sales are reduced because...........?

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:44 pm

lorenfb wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:It's okay though, once the model Y is produced in volume, I agree that the model 3 sales will be limited, as there's a general preference for CUVs over sedans.


It's always the next model, as Tesla's savior, right?


You should post on TMC, see how that goes. I think there is a LEAF thread with 3 posts VS the majority of MNL traffic here in the Tesla threads.

lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:04 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:It's okay though, once the model Y is produced in volume, I agree that the model 3 sales will be limited, as there's a general preference for CUVs over sedans.


It's always the next model, as Tesla's savior, right?


You should post on TMC, see how that goes. I think there is a LEAF thread with 3 posts VS the majority of MNL traffic here in the Tesla threads.


You can find me over there, in 2014 shortly after delivery of my 2013 Leaf. As expected, same Tesla arrogance over there toward the Leaf.
Back then, they were claiming that the MS had a higher efficiency than the Leaf, i.e. MS with about 25-30% more weight and using an
induction motor.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F (35C), min discharge (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 25%, temp < 105F

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