Your predictions for the US Plugins in 2013

[GaslessInSeattle]

I know for a fact that my crowing about the Leaf sold a few to friends and aquantences early on. I also know that I no longer assure people about the battery when it comes up, I honestly don't really talk about the car that much anymore and I don't know anyone buying one. to the extent that word of mouth was pushing sales, I would think it's fair to assume the battery issue has decrease enthusiasm of current owners of the car and thus their motivation to promote it. it is possible that Nissan's push to sell the car is reaching Joe public more than word of mouth by owners. it's hard to imagine another summer going by without this truly blowing up in the mainstream. Honestly, Nissan is lucky they did not sell a lot of this car before this issue was discovered. If there were hundreds of thousands of this car out int he wild, the heat issue would have gotten a lot more play on prime time.

I think people who believe sales are slow due to battery issues are deluded. Joe public is totally unaware of this. I've never once had anyone mention it to me when people talk to me about my leaf. Unlike when driving the Volt I've had a few people ask about the fires. So until something hits the major news media about it, I don't think the public knows. And the dealerships certainly aren't going to tell people.

 

[TomT]

The good news is that they were quickly dropped from Ford's lineup because they sold poorly due to their size and cost. Ford learned that something can, in fact, be too big to sell well with consumers. The only person I know who owned one legitimately had a use for it that an other vehicle would not have been able to easily meet.

The other day when I was out eating, I saw 2 Ford Exxon Valdezes (http://www.sdearthtimes.com/et0399/et0399s4.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false in the span of 5 minutes. These beasts weigh 6500+ lbs and were exempt from EPA fuel economy testing (and counting against Ford's CAFE numbers) because their GVWRs were >8500 lbs and no longer considered a "light" truck. One was driven solo and the other had 1 or 2 passengers.

 

[TomT]

+1!

I know for a fact that my crowing about the Leaf sold a few to friends and acquaintances early on. I also know that I no longer assure people about the battery when it comes up, I honestly don't really talk about the car that much anymore and I don't know anyone buying one. to the extent that word of mouth was pushing sales, I would think it's fair to assume the battery issue has decreased enthusiasm of current owners of the car and thus their motivation to promote it. It is possible that Nissan's push to sell the car is reaching Joe public more than word of mouth by owners. It's hard to imagine another summer going by without this truly blowing up in the mainstream. Honestly, Nissan is lucky they did not sell a lot of this car before this issue was discovered. If there were hundreds of thousands of this car out int he wild, the heat issue would have gotten a lot more play on prime time.

 

[adric22]

Maybe some of those people spending stupid money going on battering ram of death-class SUVs will go for something smarter.

I doubt it. I know far too many people who drive these battering-ram-on-wheels machines. My own brother is one of them. He has not owned any vehicle that wasn't a jacked-up-pickup or large SUV since 1995. Money is not an issue for him, and he likes the larger vehicles. Even if gasoline were $20 per gallon, he'd still be driving one. However, he has said repeatedly that if there were an electric version that could do what his vehicle does, he'd consider it.

I have several friends who I'd classify into the "doomsday prepper" crowd. They drive Jeeps or other off-road type vehicles. However, the point has been made and recognized several times in our conversations that the Volt is really an excellent bug-out vehicle due to the fact it can operate on two entirely different types of fuels. That gives you double the chance of finding a way to fuel up your vehicle in a SHTF scenario. I suspect if anyone ever created a decent off-road vehicle with a drive system similar to the Volt, it would certainly appeal to the doomsday crowd.

Of course, personally I think the best survivalist vehicle should run on a combination of battery and propane. You can store those propane canisters for decades without the fuel going bad.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

great post Dave!

I think people who believe sales are slow due to battery issues are deluded. Joe public is totally unaware of this. I've never once had anyone mention it to me when people talk to me about my leaf. Unlike when driving the Volt I've had a few people ask about the fires. So until something hits the major news media about it, I don't think the public knows. And the dealerships certainly aren't going to tell people.

you are correct in that sales are not slow due to any specific issues but batteries in itself are part of the reason. everyone has experience with batteries and those experiences run from "very bad" at the good end to things much worse. Trust me when I say this; the uninformed public has created degradation much worse than Phoenix will ever see all in their minds.

it could be loosely categorized as mistrust of new technology but its not. to most people, a battery is a battery. goes dead unexpectedly, needs replacing often, etc.

 

[cwerdna]

Well, 16 days into 2013, I was thinking more about Fisker. Unless they can sell enough internationally, I think that unless Tesla goes under, the chances that Fisker will go under in 2013 are quite high.

The people who are willing to spend the big $ on a Fisker can afford a Tesla Model S, which by all accounts is a far superior car and is cheaper. The Model S seems to have enough prestige and good enough styling to satisfy the rich folks. And, w/the 85 kwh battery and Superchargers, the range of the Model S should be enough sufficient. Those people will likely also still keep a gasser anyway, since they should be able to afford it.

And, I think the odds of there being some savior if Tesla nears or goes bankrupt is much higher than Fisker's.

 

[scottf200]

However, the point has been made and recognized several times in our conversations that the Volt is really an excellent bug-out vehicle due to the fact it can operate on two entirely different types of fuels. That gives you double the chance of finding a way to fuel up your vehicle in a SHTF scenario. I suspect if anyone ever created a decent off-road vehicle with a drive system similar to the Volt, it would certainly appeal to the doomsday crowd.

Isn't that what http://www.viamotors.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; . Sure they are expensive currently but the are trying to stay in business and they can sell 1000s to fleet managers that do long range planning (calc: http://www.viamotors.com/vtrux/life-cycle-savings-calculator/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ) vs 100s to normal folks.

Now they have the x-truck for the F350 / 3500 construction and job needs. http://money.cnn.com/video/pf/2013/01/14/pf-w-via-motors-monster-truck.cnnmoney/index.html?iid=GM" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[roperld]

My web page shows that electric (BEVs and PHEVs) sales are doing better than the early Prius I did: http://www.roperld.com/Science/ElectricVehicles.htm#sales.

 

[TomT]

Of course, the first Prius was based on the Echo and was a pretty miserable vehicle in its own right. That alone may have had something to do with it...

My web page shows that electric (BEVs and PHEVs) sales are doing better than the early Prius I did: http://www.roperld.com/Science/ElectricVehicles.htm#sales.

 

[cwerdna]

Of course, the first Prius was based on the Echo and was a pretty miserable vehicle in its own right. That alone may have had something to do with it...

My web page shows that electric (BEVs and PHEVs) sales are doing better than the early Prius I did: http://www.roperld.com/Science/ElectricVehicles.htm#sales.

Yeah, the styling of the 1st gen Prius (NHW11) didn't do it any favors. Gasoline being below $2/gallon (and sometimes being barely averaging over $1/gallon) per http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; along with only a lame $2000 Federal tax deduction instead of a tax credit (became a $3150 tax credit, starting 1/1/06) didn't help things either.