powersurge said:
The base price on a Tesla Model S with a 60kWh battery and RWD is currently $66K before taxes and state/federal incentives (which for the time being in California would subtract $10K). Even a base car comes reasonably well equipped.
Of course, that is still a lot of money to spend on a car! I would never advise anyone to buy a Model S or Model X if their main goal is to save money on transportation. If one is looking for the most economical, reliable way to get around, assuming a car is needed at all, then a used Volt or Prius should work well. A used LEAF could fit the bill nicely if its range limitations are not an issue and the local climate won't fry LEAF batteries (as in Phoenix).
A large number of Tesla buyers to date have been "middle class" people who've been attracted to Tesla for one reason or another. There's nothing wrong with "living life" and enjoying some luxuries if one can do so responsibly, and/or choosing to vote with dollars for a future of long distance driving with no tailpipe emissions.
powersurge said:
It is a limited production vehicle, and replacement parts will be more scarce and expensive than any other luxury car like BMW, Mercedes, Land Rover, or Jaguar...
Yes, Teslas are limited production compared to Camrys, but not compared to similar class vehicles from the manufacturers you list. Tesla has been doing quite well in the luxury segment. Foreign luxury cars (with the notable exception of Lexus, I think) can be notoriously expensive to maintain, so I wouldn't automatically consider out-of-warranty Teslas to be more expensive to own.
powersurge said:
Also, when the battery goes, expect to pay sky-high battery replacement costs... I can imagine that by the time these current "low production volume" Teslas need new batteries, you will be able to buy an entire Tesla car for $10-15K because no one will want them. You will have to sink $20-30K to replace the batteries....
That may be true. But Tesla batteries seem to be holding up quite well. So if an original battery pack lasts for 10-20 years, which seems entirely possible, then it is expected that the car would have lost most of its original value via depreciation anyway. It's also likely that replacement battery pack prices will drop. Further, Tesla battery packs are warranted for eight years, which establishes a floor on their service life.
powersurge said:
Although I think Tesla is a real potential player in the future EV scenario...
More than that, they are a major player today. In 2016 so far, the Model S is the top selling plug-in car in the US.
powersurge said:
...no one who works for a living (in their right minds) should ever consider buying a new Tesla because it is still a "futuristic experiment". Anything can happen to Tesla. In my automotive experience, a reasonable person anywhere in the world needs to buy the most common, best quality, highest production model car they can get... Parts and repairs cost will be the easiest to get, lowest in price (aftermarket), and overall cost of ownership will be the lowest. I bought a Leaf because I feel they will be reasonably supported long-term by Nissan.. Tesla is not a car for a normal American.
As a general rule, that is solid, conservative advice. At the same time, a great many people do not choose to optimize personal economics in their vehicle purchasing decisions. Middle class people, including "normal Americans", are going to continue buying their "toys", whether that's luxury cars, giant pickups, RVs, boats, etc. I think it is genius that Tesla produces comparatively eco-friendly vehicles that create desire. Whatever happens business-wise, I don't see Tesla disappearing completely, after having sold hundreds of thousands of copies of such great products.
As for Nissan's support, I'm happy that our LEAF has needed very few repairs. At the same time, our battery capacity loss has been unacceptable, yet it's still not covered under warranty. Losing about 25% capacity after five years is not bad compared to other LEAFs, but it's certainly nothing for Nissan to be proud of. Of course, our expectations were higher because we spent a net of about $25K (after incentives) on our LEAF back in 2011, a sizable fraction of what our used Tesla ended up costing. If we had paid $7K for a used LEAF, we probably wouldn't be so disappointed about battery capacity loss.