Tier 2 pushed back to Summer 2011???

[TimeHorse]

can somone ask nissan at the delivery event whats delayed tier 2 orders?

I've updated my article:

However, the most likely answer seems to be over-estimates of demand and product availability. With the Yen currently trading at under 84¥ per $1 US, the cost to manufacture and import the LEAF into the US may be leading to negative profit margins on the vehicle. This could be an indication that some of the initial LEAF production quota is being diverted to new markets, such as México as announced in a resent LEAF announcement on Twitter.. Not that the capital, Ciudad de México, isn't a perfect place for the LEAF with its temperate climate, terrible emissions problems and robust middle class. Another possibility is simply that manufacturing the LEAF is turning out to be more difficult and defect-prone than originally estimated and therefor Nissan has been forced to reduce the 2010 / 2011 production quotas. Until we learn more, it seems probable that it be a combination of these factors which led to the decision.

Also, here's a description of Conway Chained Arrow Notation. In brief, you read it from right to left, and each arrow refers to a repetition of the chain to the left which balloons at an unimaginable rate. In summary, it's is about the most concise notation possible for writing the biggest numbers describable.

 

[kmp647]

This would be playing out differnently if there was one competitor in the US to the Leaf

be it Focus ev or honda or toyota rav4

oh well I am bummed

 

[hodad66]

Nissan can't expect to get people this involved in the ordering process
and not expect them to be pissed off to be put on hold for eight months.

 

[kmp647]

you are correct and they are expecting t/o calls on monday

I cant believe what they say anymore

 

[TimeHorse]

Okay, folks, it's time to turn this around and look toward the positive! That's what I tried to do with my article and what I think we need to do here:

1. More time to save up for a bigger down payment.
2. 2012 model year seems likely now.
3. Late Summer ordering sounds like 31 August to me -- we all remember how that went so we know now how to plan for it.
4. This could lead to Saturday 10 December 2011 for first Atlantic Coast delivery -- the 1-year anniversary of this announcement and a day before Gudy!
5. The 2012 model is likely to have the Cold Weather Package trim.
6. There's a good chance the 2012 model will have the 6.6kW charger, if not more.
7. There's lots of time for the big 7 to give us reports of their experiences and warnings.
8. There's lots of time for Nissan to make other improvements to the LEAF to make the 2012 model even more desirable.
9. The Ford Focus EV might become available in that time frame and then we'll have some real choice when it finally comes time to buy our Battery Electric.

Anyone else?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

A number of electric cars are coming out in 2011 including the Ford Focus ...

LOL!! NONE of anyone else is putting a volume that is even close to Nissan's. many are looking at LATE 2011 intro, mostly likely on the same volumes as Nissan is currently doing right now, so look at mid 2012 for a different option IF you are lucky to be one of the first.

also no one has

1) a price as competitive or
2) bothered to announce a price or spec

there is a reason why the Leaf is pretty much the only game in town and for those who were not in the launch area, when were you expecting to get your car? i was thinking no earlier than mid to late summer.

now look at us!! we were expecting to get our cars from mid november forward back when we ordered our cars in August. so if we have a 4+ month wait, why shouldnt you?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

smyrna wont produce a singl leaf til late 2012 at earliest
those cars will be 2013 models if not 2014's

this has nothing to do with that plant

maybe the tanked USD is to blame

maybe its a mistake email

that late? i thought they would be producing cars spring 2012?

we can speculate as to the delays and i doubt that Nissan would confirm anything.

but i hope its not due to a greater allocation to businesses (we all have read tons of articles on commitments for large purchases by corporate entities)

 

[evnow]

Thats a bummer.

My guess would be delay in winter spec.

I live in frickin FLORIDA!!!!

I still think it is the winterspec - and FL is "collateral damage". They should have just included FL and NM in the 1st tier and be done with warm states.

 

[Clippy]

A number of electric cars are coming out in 2011 including the Ford Focus ...

LOL!! NONE of anyone else is putting a volume that is even close to Nissan's. many are looking at LATE 2011 intro, mostly likely on the same volumes as Nissan is currently doing right now, so look at mid 2012 for a different option IF you are lucky to be one of the first.

That's just it. These poor folks were told by Nissan they would be ordering in December. They are now being told it will be nine to ten months later. Add 4-7 months to that date and you're into 2012. If you've waited that long, you may as well wait for the Focus. This combined with the fact that some of us think Nissan made a mistake with the exterior styling and interior materials of the Leaf, it makes waiting look a little better.

now look at us!! we were expecting to get our cars from mid november forward back when we ordered our cars in August. so if we have a 4+ month wait, why shouldnt you?

Empathy isn't one of your strong suits, is it?

Either way, the timing of this email speaks volumes, no?

 

[evnow]

Either way, the timing of this email speaks volumes, no?

That is very curious. Either they are trying bury the news with the first delivery news - or whoever made the decision to send the mail didn't think about the timing properly.

 

[TimeHorse]

They should have just included FL and NM in the 1st tier and be done with warm states.

+1! But, for the record, my recent comment is what I think is the most likely reason. They probably hand-engineered the hell out of Gudy's car and are now realizing that they can't keep up with the demand they expected and still turn out a quality product.

 

[rnkepler]

I think its more that they feel that the corporate staff involved with the Leaf will be spread out too thin to make sure everything goes smoothly in tier 1 and tier 2 states, not to mention the upcoming international launches. It certainly seems like there's been a lot of confusion with the initial launch states and they probably have enough reservations left in those states to keep their production maxed out. Especially if they go ahead and reopen the reservation process early next year.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

They should have just included FL and NM in the 1st tier and be done with warm states.

+1! But, for the record, my recent comment is what I think is the most likely reason. They probably hand-engineered the hell out of Gudy's car and are now realizing that they can't keep up with the demand they expected and still turn out a quality product.

man i cant even begin to tell you how PO'd i would have been. as it is, after expecting a Nov delivery, my date is being pushed out on a daily basis. i am now almost to Feb.

but in your situation, lets face it, you were screwed by geography. plus; i, as is most of the initial launch area (except TN, but they have the factory) we are not new to the EV game. i have been doing it for years. been plugging in at charge stations that are around the little podunk town i live in.

so that is why we were picked. we were half way there. its the laws, the legislation, the synergy towards the technology, but mostly its simply because we had a headstart you guys.

you state you will be getting charging stations this summer, well the charging station i used frequently was put in 6 summers ago!!

that counts!.

 

[stanley]

eeds to articulate what has caused their decision. They need to stop the conflictin messages.SOME ONE at a high level needs to step up for the sake of their reputation and clear up the meesage.

 

[Clippy]

Either way, the timing of this email speaks volumes, no?

That is very curious. Either they are trying bury the news with the first delivery news - or whoever made the decision to send the mail didn't think about the timing properly.

I am usually inclined to assume that there's nothing sinister in people's actions. But, when you stop and think about the numbers here, these poor folks are sort of being told told by the Wizard to "Go Away."

When I think about it (which is dangerous for someone who ordered his car on 9/2), I can't help but think that 2012 is going to be the year of the Leaf for a significant portion of that 20,000+ reservation pool.

 

[stanley]

I feel badly for tier 2 people. I know they are teribly bumed out and for good reason. However, I trust that Nissan has a good reason(s) for the delay and it probably is not the exchange rate. The number of Leafs is not significant enough to a affect their botom line given the total number of other cars and trucks they are selling. Nissan also know that their decision will result in some loss of good will. That costs them future sales of their brand.

What is the reason for the delay? Is it production dificulties or greater conversion of reservations than expected. Nissan`s press release about the S. F celebration would suggest this.

Or is it lack of infra- structure in Tier 2 envolving their Dealers, Aerovironment and Community charging stations. The E mail to tier 2 suggests this.

Or is it the cold weather package? A Spokesperson at a high level needs to step up

 

[Jimmydreams]

Here's my take:

Nissan's Job #1 was to hit the streets with the first mass-produced EV. As of today, they can claim that.
Job #2, is maintain company profitability. The Opamma plant can only make so many cars a day. Each car has a different profit margin attached to it. Nissan has a MUCH lower profit margin on a Leaf than any of their other cars. When it comes to the rest of the rollout, I'm sure Nissan's number crunchers are telling the board "If we concentrate on Leafs, we can make XXX cars this year and make XXX profit. We can make 10 times the profit by producing less Leafs and more (insert car name here)." Until the Smyrna plant can come on line, they have somewhat restricted production options when you balance pumping out Leafs vs instant profits with a Juke, etc. Plus, I'm sure there are delays putting in the charging infrastructure. Nissan needs to weigh that against positive customer comments. It's a very complicated 'soup', and we're just one ingredient.

Nissan is a business and in the end, who is their real competition for EV for the next year? Volt? Not really. Ford Focus? It's not out yet and may be delayed, so no real threat there. Tesla? Not even close. There are others, but none as far along in the process.

Nissan may not be putting out the numbers that we had hoped, but they are first, and are WAY ahead of the competition so they will always be putting out more EV's than the latest newcomer to the party.

This doesn't make the waiting any easier, but face it, folks; we live in an 'instant gratification' society. The Leaf isn't going to be available in numbers to satisfy that itch for quite a while. It sucks, but patience IS a virtue....or builds character....or something like that.

 

[TimeHorse]

i, as is most of the initial launch area (except TN, but they have the factory) we are not new to the EV game. i have been doing it for years. been plugging in at charge stations that are around the little podunk town i live in.

so that is why we were picked. we were half way there. its the laws, the legislation, the synergy towards the technology, but mostly its simply because we had a headstart you guys.

you state you will be getting charging stations this summer, well the charging station i used frequently was put in 6 summers ago!!

that counts!.

Sounds a bit like Jim Crow to me: You can only get an electric vehicle if your grandfather had an electric vehicle. Is that it?

Whatever, all I know is I've been asking for this for more years I'm prepared to count -- it certainly predates my http://aecn.timehorse.com/ blog which is already almost 2 years old. It was bad enough when the Mini-E was only offered in NY / NJ. The west has always had it best. Just once, I'd like to see a bit of green on the steps of the Capitol -- and by green I don't mean money. Thank goodness for the EAA and those ultra-rich Tesla drivers. Seems like the only way the now the forgotten 43+D.C. middle-class are going to get BEVs is home-brew!

And while I'm on the subject of Jim Crow, wait just a cotton-picking minute there, sir! I think you're having some problems with your text to speech or something because I did not just hear you compare your delay in delivery to what the newly-forgotten 8 are suffering. No, I could not have. I must be mistaken because I've known you for a while and known you to be a good and kind individual. So seriously, let's compare:

• August Orders: aw, you had to wait until the 31st or the 1st of September, poor babies.
• September Orders: aw, you had to wait until the first week of October, so sad.
• October Orders: aw, that extra fortnight in November was really painful, wasn't it?
• November Orders: aw, you were threatened with dealer selling limits, but I guess it turned out alright and you paid the same price you expected because the limits were high and wow, you all ordered by the end of the month, what a bummer.
• December, January and February Orders: Well, you didn't feel like rushing to get a LEAF, you just kind of dithered and rolled on into the reservations sometime in May, June or July. Oh, well. You had to wait a bit. Too bad.
• November Delivery: aw, they made some of you wait until mid-December. Curse them for that fortnight! The bastards! And some of you won't get it until the end of January with dashboards claiming you'll get February delivery. Oh, so painful that 2 month wait. Crocadile tears!

Now, here's some real pain:

• The Forgotten 36 have always been told Fall / Winter 2011 just to order; that really sucks! They reserved on April 20 2010 and may have registered for the mailing list even earlier. They have been waiting and waiting and waiting and most of us have been ignoring them like they're lepers. Personally, I'm really sorry guys. You shouldn't have to wait so long, and neither should Canada.
• The Eye-Poked 8 were finally getting their break. Finally, someone was going to step up to the plate and sell them an Affordable Electric Car NOW. They diligently placed reservations with as much haste as humanly possible on 20 April 2010 and were happily told that their day would finally come in December 2010, when they could finally order their LEAF. They watched as people in Tier 1 and Tier 1a went through the joyous process of ordering, chomping at the bit for their December day to arrive. And they knew things might get pushed back. Sure, it might not be until January before they could order, but they didn't care. They heard about the 4 - 7 month delay between order and delivery and just accepted that delivery was looking more like July than April 2011, as they were originally told. They were hyped to see their pal Gudy get his LEAF. And then the bomb hit. Not a 1 week delay. Not a month delay. Not even 2 months delay. 8 months delay! The Eye-Poked 8 were still better off than the forgotten 36 with a late summer order date, but rest assured, they were truly given the ream-job royal. I was given the ream-job royal.

But, let's be positive. This isn't the end of the world. It's not like anyone of us just got cancer or had a spouse pass away or just been sued for every one of our existing assets. I'm very happy Dave is getting his LEAF relatively soon and not at all happy that he has to wait an extra 2 months. That sucks. But just as waiting until late summer is way better than cancer, waiting an additional 2 months is way better 8.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

i, as is most of the initial launch area (except TN, but they have the factory) we are not new to the EV game. i have been doing it for years. been plugging in at charge stations that are around the little podunk town i live in.

so that is why we were picked. we were half way there. its the laws, the legislation, the synergy towards the technology, but mostly its simply because we had a headstart you guys.

you state you will be getting charging stations this summer, well the charging station i used frequently was put in 6 summers ago!!

that counts!.

Sounds a bit like Jim Crow to me: You can only get an electric vehicle if your grandfather had an electric vehicle. Is that it?

MAN I hate it when you start out with an inflammatory statement like that then go on to make perfect sense!!

lets face it, we all want to be first. as happy as i am for Gudy, i cannot even begin to tell you how badly i wanted it to be me. we are all on the cusp of a major watershed event. it will be wonderful and being a part of the launch is an awesome thing to be part of.

now as far as us being picked first. Nissan realized even great products can be shot down before they have a chance. so the initial launch had to be in areas that already have a support structure in place. granted, its weak (i only have L1 charging currently) but the thought is there. so starting here gives Nissan the greatest chance of being successful.

now, we can all complain about Nissan's inability to keep their word on the timings of the various launches in place, but to be honest with ya, i cant say that they are really doing all that bad of a job.

starting close to home; the Dreamliner by Boeing. its had so many delays that we already are receiving reports of some major customers walking away. these are orders that are placed YEARS in advance.

we could talk about Microsoft, but that is old news. (even when they do launch its with a product that is not ready)

what about 4G cellphone technology? it aint rocket science. its been available abroad for years. the announcement for it has been pushed around as well and it requires BILLIONS of dollars in infrastructure improvements before it can launch so a timetable should be easy right? well, obviously what works on a whiteboard does not always equate to real life.

once again; i feel for you. on April 20th, i was pm'ing a PC colleague as we both sat in front of our computers all day waiting for the reservation. imagine how he felt when he was told he would have to wait 18 months for delivery because he lived in Missouri!! especially when up to that point, Nissan implied it was first come first served?

i hate to mention this; but if you think the waiting is tough now... wait till you start reading our reports of our experiences. THAT will be the true test of patience

 

[Clippy]

i hate to mention this; but if you think the waiting is tough now... wait till you start reading our reports of our experiences. THAT will be the true test of patience

lol. I've given that considerable thought and have arrived at a solution. At least until I receive a delivery date at which time your "experiences" will be extremely valuable, thanks in advance.

Go to "Bookmarks," Scroll to "MyNissanLeaf," right-click, delete bookmark.

It worked well for PriusChat about the time all the "insiders" were crowing about their Special VSP discounted 2010 Priusususus (now available for dealer cost or less, what a difference a year makes).