TRONZ said:
With all due respect, I am not sure where you are getting your information regarding what China has been up to as it effects EV's and auto materials content...
China's aggressive positioning on Rare Earths is pretty common knowledge.
With all due respect, I don't think you are reading my posts accurately. I never denied that China has been aggressive in their policy regarding rare earth markets. In fact I said "they are just trying to leverage their monopoly" and they have been "threatening to cut down...for 5 years already." There has already been a stiff outcry against their plan to cut exports by 35% in 2011, though, and there is a good chance they will soften that position before long because of international pressure, I think. They are acting no differently than the OPEC cartel in this respect, by manipulating a market over which they have a stranglehold. Pretty darn capitalistic for a bunch of commies, dontcha think? Squeeze the spigot shut and the price goes up.
What I am arguing is that there is no correlation between the supply of rare earths in Japan and the delay in the Leaf rollout. I am not sure where you are getting your information about this, which was the issue of the original post. Do you have some knowledge of a component for the car which was delayed due to a rare earth shortage and has held up production? I think this is speculation, and that is the only point I was trying to make. I can think of many other more likely reasons for the delays, most of which have already been bandied about on this forum, from software/hardware problems to organizational complexities to currency exchange rates.
My point is that the supply chain from raw material to finished product is longer than a few months, and the effects of a 5-week embargo on imports to Japan in Oct. is not the reason that your Leaf has been delayed. I also seriously doubt that there wasn't enough of a stockpile of raw materials on hand in the country to span such a short interruption. Perhaps such a shortage could drive prices up in the short term on the local commodities market, and Japan is the birthplace of JIT (Just In Time) deliveries in the manufacturing segment, but I don't think that a rare earth shortage made the Leaf production line grind to a halt, slowing US deliveries. If anyone has some evidence of this, I would like to see/hear it.
TRONZ said:
Yes, and the interruption in LEAF shipments is not official policy, according to Nissan... so I guess it's all good then.
In reality, Nissan has delivered on everything they promised regarding the Leaf delivery timeline for 2010, which was sparse to begin with and equally vague. Who are we to even say that they are "late" with the roll-out just because we are impatient to get our cars? The only real evidence that things are not going as quickly as they planned was the shutting down of reservations and the change in the expected delivery time after ordering from 3-4 months to 4-7 months. There are plenty of reasons for such delays in the roll-out of a new and unique product without blaming it on the Chinese domination of the rare earth market. That impact will be felt late next year, if at all, and would likely take the form of a price increase in the next round of Leaf reservations/orders due to cost increases from the market manipulation, not a cessation of manufacturing. Like OPEC, the Chinese are not going to cut their own throats. They need us as much as we need them.
TT
