The Secret Fear Of The World's Biggest Auto Companies

[Herm]

This reminds me of why EVs suppossdly dont work. Its the 5% crowd making 95% of the noise.

This sounds just perfect for a signature line

 

[evnow]

...Sorry, this seems like the usual pie-in-the-sky prediction; I'll believe it when I see it.

I think you can believe it. Google and other developers driving the technology (pun not intended) are pretty much there already. I strongly suspect the tech will be granular enough to sense and account for potholes and other road conditions. No question automated driving will prove, statistically, vastly safer than human driving. How could it not? We are pretty bad at it in general...plus, it would be a big mistake to underestimate Google.

Don't overestimate Google (or any other company). The number of things Google has tried and failed at is larger than their success.

Once regulators, legislators and insurers understand how well it works, it will be on the fast track to wide and rapid adoption.

Let us not even get to what regulators (much less legislators) will do. All it will take is for Obama to endorse it - it will never happen :lol:

 

[braineo]

the self driving Nissan Leaf in action,

http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=LC2wiBQLHRw&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DLC2wiBQLHRw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You guys are late to the party...

 

[dhanson865]

the self driving Nissan Leaf in action,

http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=LC2wiBQLHRw&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DLC2wiBQLHRw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You guys are late to the party...

so if the car parks itself will it drive back to pick me up at the door or do I have to hunt the parking lot for my car that is hidden between all the SUVs?

 

[braineo]

to get your car to pick you up, you'll need this Audi...

see embeded videos

http://www.popsci.com/cars/article/2013-01/ces-2013-audi-demonstrates-its-self-driving-car" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.nydailynews.com/autos/audi-shows-self-driving-cars-article-1.1249419" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

i bet Nissan will make it more affordable than Audi.

 

[OttoH]

Self driving cars will be a reality as soon as they prove safer than human driven cars. That will not take long. Then the insurance companies will take care of the rest. "Oh, you have a self driving car? Ok, that'll be $50.- a year. You want to drive it yourself? That'll be $5000 per month."

 

[edatoakrun]

the self driving Nissan Leaf in action,

http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=LC2wiBQLHRw&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DLC2wiBQLHRw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You guys are late to the party...

so if the car parks itself will it drive back to pick me up at the door or do I have to hunt the parking lot for my car that is hidden between all the SUVs?

Your car will pick you up at the designated loading zone, which will be near the entrance to your destination.

And since it will be a BEV, it will also have driven to a nearby inductive or automatic plug-in charge station (if you directed it to do so) to recharge, while you were at your destination.

OttoH:
Self driving cars will be a reality as soon as they prove safer than human driven cars...

And that is only a very few years away.

 

[Stoaty]

Self driving cars will be a reality as soon as they prove safer than human driven cars. That will not take long. Then the insurance companies will take care of the rest. "Oh, you have a self driving car? Ok, that'll be $50.- a year. You want to drive it yourself? That'll be $5000 per month."

The insurance companies will rate each car by the software installed, based on the software's accident rates: "You have Race Car Driver Version 5.0? That runs an extra $200 per month."

 

[ksnogas2112]

Why would the pothole be unexpected? I guess the first time it would be but crowdsourcing would flag the condition and besides we Humans hit potholes all the time.

Th I s reminds me of why EVs suppossdly dont work. Its the 5% crowd making 95% of the noise. A huge reduction in traffic deaths is the most likely result and we are concerned over potholes?

In some places potholes are the rule not the exception (you hear that KCMO?). It would be interesting to find out how many alignments are done on the Missouri side compared with the Kansas side of the city. All we need to make self driving a win/win/win would be to electrify the road to power the vehicle. Now THAT is a great 'road tax' that I would pay for.

 

[evnow]

Self driving cars will be a reality as soon as they prove safer than human driven cars. That will not take long. Then the insurance companies will take care of the rest. "Oh, you have a self driving car? Ok, that'll be $50.- a year. You want to drive it yourself? That'll be $5000 per month."

Self driving cars = robots.

And we don't use rebots in anything other than controlled environments. Why ?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Self driving cars will be a reality as soon as they prove safer than human driven cars. That will not take long. Then the insurance companies will take care of the rest. "Oh, you have a self driving car? Ok, that'll be $50.- a year. You want to drive it yourself? That'll be $5000 per month."

Self driving cars = robots.

And we don't use rebots in anything other than controlled environments. Why ?

http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com/2013/02/yokohama-trip-part-two.html?showComment=1359855851398#c5648688053605614071" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

there is a link "Carrybees" you should read. these robots run around a factory that is EXTREMELY busy and they are able to avoid other carrybees and people. They do run on a guided metal track (which is no different that following a paved road surface) but still must be aware of their surroundings.

in any technology, the real challenge is not the technology, its the "people proofing". figuring out how to auto pilot and not hit other cars (easy job, already done) or pedestrians (not so easy but supposedly already done as well but think more testing needs to be done to verify).

but all that is done. what remains now is making the technology cheap enough to be mainstream. Its like Fuel cell cars. the technology is there, it just aint cheap enough to have a viable market yet

 

[gsleaf]

Taxis will be the most impacted.. expect taxi trip costs to drop 50%, which will further affect car ownership

In Portland we have a car sharing service called Car to Go (https://www.car2go.com/en/austin/what-is-car2go/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false. You use a cell app to find a car near you, drive it to anywhere in their working area, then park and go. No paying for parking, etc. Imagine if you could page the car and it would drive to you. If you lived in the city between a car service and transit you could really get away without owning a car.

 

[abasile]

As a frequent bicyclist and less frequently a runner, I'd expect a world of self-driving cars to be safer for those of us traveling under our own power and/or on two wheels. This assumes of course that the cars' software becomes able to accommodate non-car road users traveling at a wide variety of speeds and engaging in practices such as lane-splitting. (Lane splitting is legal in California and works well when there's traffic congestion.)

As long as the "right" (not "privilege") to bicycle on public roads remains the law of the land, I'll be (mostly) okay with not piloting a car myself. A great many will resist giving up driving, however.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

As a frequent bicyclist and less frequently a runner, I'd expect a world of self-driving cars to be safer for those of us traveling under our own power and/or on two wheels. This assumes of course that the cars' software becomes able to accommodate non-car road users traveling at a wide variety of speeds and engaging in practices such as lane-splitting. (Lane splitting is legal in California and works well when there's traffic congestion.)

As long as the "right" (not "privilege") to bicycle on public roads remains the law of the land, I'll be (mostly) okay with not piloting a car myself. A great many will resist giving up driving, however.

one of many amazing things about Japan is how well bicyclists and cars share the road. many times our bus came within a few feet of a biker. Neither the biker or the bus driver blinked an eye. It was all natural. each had total trust in the other to do the right thing. I was blown away by this

 

[cwerdna]

one of many amazing things about Japan is how well bicyclists and cars share the road. many times our bus came within a few feet of a biker. Neither the biker or the bus driver blinked an eye. It was all natural. each had total trust in the other to do the right thing. I was blown away by this

Kinda on this note, in my 02 Maxima's manual (which came w/standard HIDs), there was a warning about not turning on/off headlights unnecessarily (bad for HIDs) such as when stopped at traffic lights. I thought that was pretty goofy but then I found out (and observed) such a habit in Japan. At night, I'd seen drivers turn their headlights off when stopped and turn them back on when they start moving.

Apparently, it's supposedly to not have their lights shining into the faces of the people on the other side of the road.

 

[timhebb]

...it would be a big mistake to underestimate Google.

Don't overestimate Google (or any other company). The number of things Google has tried and failed at is larger than their success.
...
Let us not even get to what regulators (much less legislators) will do. All it will take is for Obama to endorse it - it will never happen :lol:

The great majority of Google's numerous "failures" can be attributed to lack of public acceptance - failure to be adopted - or their rapid evolution into a better product, not technical flaws or failures. From a technical perspective, reports I've read indicate their autonomous vehicle development is already successful - it works! - and is showing steady progress. The fact that they've "failed" at many projects and still become spectacularly successful overall just underscores how adaptive, efficient and effective Google's work processes are. So, no, I'd disagree that their failures are larger than their success.

As for the Obama remark, I guess we know which way your politics lean. There certainly are enclaves of like-minded legislators who demonstrate Pavlovian opposition to anything Obama proposes. I can't say it has worked out very well for them lately.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

...it would be a big mistake to underestimate Google.

Don't overestimate Google (or any other company). The number of things Google has tried and failed at is larger than their success.
...
Let us not even get to what regulators (much less legislators) will do. All it will take is for Obama to endorse it - it will never happen :lol:

The great majority of Google's numerous "failures" can be attributed to lack of public acceptance - failure to be adopted - or their rapid evolution into a better product, not technical flaws or failures. From a technical perspective, reports I've read indicate their autonomous vehicle development is already successful - it works! - and is showing steady progress. The fact that they've "failed" at many projects and still become spectacularly successful overall just underscores how adaptive, efficient and effective Google's work processes are. So, no, I'd disagree that their failures are larger than their success.

As for the Obama remark, I guess we know which way your politics lean. There certainly are enclaves of like-minded legislators who demonstrate Pavlovian opposition to anything Obama proposes. I can't say it has worked out very well for them lately.

I have to question the label of "failures" for Google. Like any advanced tech company, there will be mis steps but I think Google is pretty transparent when it comes to what they are working on that is VERY unheard of in the circles they congregate. Google is very much trying to create its own technology space and maybe its a bit presumptuous of them to think so, but I think they think they have no peers.

but am familiar with a bunch of their pulled programs and many were pulled due to uproars concerning privacy. Google had a lot of cool stuff but it did involve some privacy issues for many. I personally did not see the risk, but I am not a very private person I guess. everything I do I post online somewhere so...

 

[timhebb]

...am familiar with a bunch of their pulled programs and many were pulled due to uproars concerning privacy. Google had a lot of cool stuff but it did involve some privacy issues for many...

Excellent point, which I'd overlooked in my previous defense of Google. But it reinforces the general notion that Google's so-called "failures" have resulted from social or legal issues, not technical ones.

The adoption (or not) of autonomous vehicles will also hinge more on social barriers than on technical ones. Just last month the Wall Street Journal reported that "Customers aren’t yet convinced. A poll conducted of 5,000 drivers last year by the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, the Washington lobby group for the industry, found 72% of people thought driverless cars were a bad idea." (http://blogs.wsj.com/drivers-seat/2013/01/18/self-driving-cars-are-they-just-around-the-corner/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false

But the results of polls like this merely reflect an abundance of low-information respondents, and remind me of the huge gap EV's still have to close between their public perception and reality. In both cases, it will take time, but I have little doubt reality will eventually prevail.

 

[gsleaf]

But the results of polls like this merely reflect an abundance of low-information respondents, and remind me of the huge gap EV's still have to close between their public perception and reality. In both cases, it will take time, but I have little doubt reality will eventually prevail.

It's going to depend on how well the technology works. If it means your 80 year old parents can keep driving people may be willing to accept it. I think there will be a lot of edge cases like this where self-driving or just assisted-driving technologies make a huge impact.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

guessing the technology is ready. as i understand it, Google has tested the program EXTENSIVELY and the barrier right now beside general paranoia is probably cost