Switching The World To Electric Vehicles Will Take Way Longer Than You Think

[GRA]

Just to add one more guesstimate, via GCC:

Navigant forecasts global light duty electrified vehicle sales to exceed 6.0M in 2024; PEVs to account for roughly half

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/12/20151221-navigant.html

In a new report, Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts, Navigant research projects that under its base scenario, global sales of light duty electrified vehicles (i.e., vehicles that use electricity for traction, including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery-electrics) will grow from 2.6 million vehicle sales in 2015 to more than 6.0 million in 2024.

Under a conservative scenario, Navigant forecasts more than 5.8 million electrified vehicles by 2024, while the aggressive scenario sees more than 6.4 million. Navigant estimates that sales of plug-in vehicles (PEVs) accounted for roughly 19% of electrified vehicle sales in 2015; in 2024, Navigant expects light duty PEVs to capture between 47% and 51% of the electrified vehicle market. . . .

Although conventional light-duty hybrids are facing declining sales in North America and have failed to grow significantly in China, growing interest in Europe and consistent support in Japan will grow the market at a healthy CAGR of around 4.7% through 2024, according to Navigant . . . .

They've also got a graph showing projected growth.

 

[GRA]

Actually, MY goal (as I've enumerated many times) is to eliminate the need for as much powered transportation as possible through improving the built environment and simultaneously reduce energy wastage, as the two areas make up the majority of GHG emission/energy usage, and without major reductions in both areas we have no hope of getting to 80% reductions by 2050 - owing to population growth (in the U.S.), we need to reduce our per capita GHG emissions to only 12% of what they were in 1990 (20% of the 1990 total). The remaining transportation needs can be handled by whichever sustainable renewables best meet the requirements. We know we disagree on the means, but I wasn't aware that we disagreed on the ends.

I see that Paul Scott and I are on much the same wavelength (via ABG):

I'm about to give up my car, forever
Nissan Leaf Dealer [Sic] Decides The Time For Change Has Come

http://www.autoblog.com/2015/12/21/im-about-to-give-up-my-car-forever/

. . . As people begin to understand the full impact climate change will have on society and our planet's flora and fauna, more and more will avail themselves of the opportunity to stop contributing to the problem by switching their electricity to a renewable source and their vehicles to electric. Doing these two things enables the average American to reduce their pollution footprint by over 90 percent.

Longer range affordable EVs are very close to market. These are cars with a 200-plus mile range that will sell for around $35,000, very close to the average price paid for a new car in the US (which hovered around $33,500 this year). Since about 14 million new cars were sold last year, this means that millions of Americans will be able to buy a fully-electric car that can handle 100 percent of their driving needs.

But it gets better.

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are just around the corner. In about five years, fully-autonomous cars will be available for sale. Few people will buy them, however, since car-sharing companies will own fleets of them, and you will be able to get door-to-door service for pennies on the dollar what it costs to own and operate your car.

No more car and insurance payments. No more washing, fueling, parking, dealing with the DMV or paying parking tickets or moving violations. Just clean, efficient, safe, and very low cost transportation. In addition to Tesla, Apple and Google are getting into this space. Many of the existing car makers are also well along in their efforts to build autonomous cars.

The economic benefits are enormous. Americans spend close to a trillion dollars every year on oil to move our vehicles. Using renewable electricity to do the same work will cost less than 20% of that, per mile traveled. Consumers using the automated car service will have, on average, more than 1,000 extra dollars to spend on local goods and services generating millions of new jobs throughout the country. This is a good thing, too, because one of the consequences of AVs is that virtually all driving jobs will go away. No more taxi or Uber drivers, no more truck or delivery drivers.

The AV's computers will be much more efficient, and much safer than humans. Let's face it, people have set a low bar for safe or efficient driving. Over 30,000 Americans die in car crashes every year. Saving those lives, and preventing crashes that hurt or maim hundreds of thousands will save us billions in health costs.

As for my 13 years driving an electric car, with four of those years working as a Nissan Leaf salesman, that ends today. My lease is up on the EV and I'm turning it in. I'll be going carless for the rest of my life. I have an electric motorcycle that affords me very inexpensive and extremely efficient transportation for almost all of my needs, and then there is car sharing for the rest.

On a related note, some friends of mine are moving from an auto-dependent Bay Area exurb to the Washington, D.C. area. They've just sold their car, as they will be living within a couple of blocks of a Metro station, and his job (she's retired) is right across the street from one. Most routine errands will be walkable/bikeable, and for occasional car needs, they'll use car-sharing or rent. As he's a life-long performance car guy (I mean, he's owned at least one of just about every '60s muscle car, plus a variety of German and Japanese performance hardware), when he told me they were going carless I just about passed out from amazement. Maybe the talks we've had on the subject over the years had an effect after all.

 

[patrick0101]

Good posts, both here and on your blog. Thanks!

Thanks Reg

 

[GRA]

Semi-related, via GCC:

Bain: Germany’s goal of 1M electric cars by 2020 is unattainable; fewer than 50,000 units on road by end of this year

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/12/20151223-bain.html

The German Federal Government plan to have one million electric cars on its roads by 2020 has failed, according to the analysis of international management consulting firm Bain & Company. By the end of 2015, there will be a total of about 50,000 electric cars and plug-in hybrids on the roads in Germany (about 75% below plan); nevertheless, structural transformation towards electromobility is continuing, according to the firm.

Stricter emission laws and the technological advances in electric drives will accelerate the trend towards e-mobility in the medium term, Bain said.

In 2014, Germany had only about 26,000 pure electric cars and plug-in hybrids registered. According to the policy plan, that number should have been 100,000 units.

According to Bain analysis, 20,288 electric cars and plug-in hybrids were registered from January to November 2015 in Germany, suggesting approximately 23,000 vehicles for the full year. But instead of the targeted 200,000 electric cars and plug-in hybrids the total inventory is the end of 2015 will be less than 50,000 vehicles—about 75% below goal. . . .

 

[Gort]

The only way to bring about a meaningful shift to all electric vehicles is to understand how we got into this fossil fuel mess in the first place. Big oil made a deal with Henry Ford in 1910 to build fossil fuel vehicles to burn this horrible byproduct of oil called gasoline. This is when the first electric vehicles disappeared. The fight to switch back to all electric vehicles is and has always been a political fight.

By the way, I'm the proud owner of a 2015 Nissan Leaf and heading into my second winter in the Midwest with Gort, my Leaf.

 

[AndyH]

The point is AndyH thinks saying a fuel cell hybrid is just an EV will somehow affect the adoption rate.

Nope.

Until FCEV/FCHEV, hybrids turned the wheels with a combination of ICE and an electric motor. What too many people on this forum seem to not wan to acknowledge is that a FCEV/FCHV only uses an electric motor to turn the wheels. It uses two different types of electrochemical batteries, thus it's a hybrid system, but both batteries must be charged from off-board sources (ignoring the small benefit of regen).

In other threads on this board, a car fitted with flow batteries - a system that doesn't have a plug and must be charged by replacing the 'flat' electrolyte with a 'charged' electrolyte - was accepted as a BEV. My comment was directed towards the 'belief system' here rather than plugs or tech.

I don't think matters anymore if there's a plug or not, or if anyone chooses to accept FCEV/FCHV into the 'electric family'. At this point, it appears it's simply too late to rely on a 'BEV only' solution, or a BEV + FCEV, and I think even a BEV + FCEV + biofuel solution to our climate woes even if we ignore peak oil, peak metals, and other rapidly approaching physical limits. We're committed at this point - we've already entered the rapids.

 

[TonyWilliams]

No matter how long it takes, it will happen faster than switching the world to hydrogen powered vehicles.

It seems the simple fact that H2 vehicles are electric is still lost on this group... :roll:

Yep, folks clearly understand that you just plug the H2 car into any of a billion electric outlets, or 100,000 public charge locations, or over 10,000 public DC quick charge stations.

Thanks for pointing that out... heck, I thought they required expensive and dangerous hydrogen stations, of which there are less than 100 in the entire world. That would be dumb, huh?

 

[dhanson865]

The point is AndyH thinks saying a fuel cell hybrid is just an EV will somehow affect the adoption rate.

Nope.

Until FCEV/FCHEV, hybrids turned the wheels with a combination of ICE and an electric motor. What too many people on this forum seem to not wan to acknowledge is that a FCEV/FCHV only uses an electric motor to turn the wheels. It uses two different types of electrochemical batteries, thus it's a hybrid system, but both batteries must be charged from off-board sources (ignoring the small benefit of regen).

In other threads on this board, a car fitted with flow batteries - a system that doesn't have a plug and must be charged by replacing the 'flat' electrolyte with a 'charged' electrolyte - was accepted as a BEV. My comment was directed towards the 'belief system' here rather than plugs or tech.

I don't think matters anymore if there's a plug or not, or if anyone chooses to accept FCEV/FCHV into the 'electric family'. At this point, it appears it's simply too late to rely on a 'BEV only' solution, or a BEV + FCEV, and I think even a BEV + FCEV + biofuel solution to our climate woes even if we ignore peak oil, peak metals, and other rapidly approaching physical limits. We're committed at this point - we've already entered the rapids.

I'm not sure what all the rhetoric is about.

If I take a 2005 Toytota Prius and drive it the only way to recharge it is to put gas in the tank (as in liquid petroleum aka petrol aka gasoline).

If I take a 2012 Nissan Leaf and drive it the only way to recharge it is to plug it into a source of electricity.

If I take a 2016 Toyota Marai and drive it the only way to recharge it is to put gaseous hydrogen in the tank.

I can't plug the Marai into a wall jack of any type or flavor.

I don't care that it is technically a hybrid or that it has electric motors. I care that I can't plug it into a J1172 or Chademo or Tesla connector to charge it.

I care that hydrogen pumps are rare and costly.

I care that even if the hydrogen pumps and distribution network showed up overnight the efficiency of the fuel cell is similar to that of a ICE (gas engine) which is worse than the efficiency of every electric only EV on the market. Which means that in the best case hydrogen fuel cells will have cost per mile 2 or 3 times the worst case for a electrical battery only EV.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23lz9ercqvA

 

[RegGuheert]

One correction:

If I take a 2016 Toyota Marai and drive it the only way to recharge it is to put liquid hydrogen in the tank.

...should be "gaseous hydrogen."

And just to amplify this point a bit:

I care that even if the hydrogen pumps and distribution network showed up overnight the efficiency of the fuel cell is similar to that of a ICE (gas engine) which is worse than the efficiency of every electric only EV on the market. Which means that in the best case hydrogen fuel cells will have cost per mile 2 or 3 times the worst case for a electrical battery only EV.

Moving to BEVs will mean increasing electricity production by 20%. Fortunately many who add a BEV to their garage can also add the 8 PV modules and inverters to their roof which are needed to produce the electricity which the BEV will used. Two BEVs would require 16 PV modules.

OTOH, changing the U.S. fleet to FCVs fueled by electrolyzed hydrogen means increasing the electricity production in the U.S. by 50%. If people added the 20 PV modules to their roof needed to offset the electricity consumed, there would be much less roof space available to power their home. This is on top of the massive refueling infrastructure which would ALSO need to be build, at great expense.

 

[dhanson865]

One correction:

If I take a 2016 Toyota Marai and drive it the only way to recharge it is to put liquid hydrogen in the tank.

...should be "gaseous hydrogen."

Everything I Googled said the stations are liquid hydrogen, does change state when the pressure/temp changes pumping into the Mirai?

As in liquid hydrogen in the infrastructure but gaseous hydrogen in the car?

Or is it sometimes liquid sometimes gaseous even in the infrastructure and definitely gaseous in the car?

here is a blurb from wikipedia as an example

The hydrogen infrastructure consists mainly of industrial hydrogen pipeline transport and hydrogen-equipped filling stations like those found on a hydrogen highway. Hydrogen stations which are not situated near a hydrogen pipeline can obtain supply via hydrogen tanks, compressed hydrogen tube trailers, liquid hydrogen tank trucks or dedicated onsite production.

and engadget

But setting up a single hydrogen fueling station costs $1 to 2 million because of the challenges in handling liquid hydrogen.

Why so expensive? As detailed by Autoblog Green, the main tank at a hydrogen fueling station holds nearly 10,000 gallons of liquid hydrogen stored at around minus 250 degrees Celsius (minus 418 F).

It's then converted to gas in vaporizer towers, pressurized and transferred to smaller storage tanks for distribution.

hmm, I guess so gaseous hydrogen in the car and at the fueling station but liquid hydrogen in other parts of the infrastructure. Apparently I skimmed instead of reading far enough down.

 

[RegGuheert]

Or is it sometimes liquid sometimes gaseous even in the infrastructure and definitely gaseous in the car?

Definitely the last part of that statement is correct. If the Mirai carried liquid hydrogen, we could multiply Tony's safety concerns by about 10x.

 

[GRA]

One correction:

If I take a 2016 Toyota Marai and drive it the only way to recharge it is to put liquid hydrogen in the tank.

...should be "gaseous hydrogen."

Everything I Googled said the stations are liquid hydrogen, does change state when the pressure/temp changes pumping into the Mirai?

As in liquid hydrogen in the infrastructure but gaseous hydrogen in the car?

Or is it sometimes liquid sometimes gaseous even in the infrastructure and definitely gaseous in the car?

here is a blurb from wikipedia as an example

The hydrogen infrastructure consists mainly of industrial hydrogen pipeline transport and hydrogen-equipped filling stations like those found on a hydrogen highway. Hydrogen stations which are not situated near a hydrogen pipeline can obtain supply via hydrogen tanks, compressed hydrogen tube trailers, liquid hydrogen tank trucks or dedicated onsite production.

and engadget

But setting up a single hydrogen fueling station costs $1 to 2 million because of the challenges in handling liquid hydrogen.

Why so expensive? As detailed by Autoblog Green, the main tank at a hydrogen fueling station holds nearly 10,000 gallons of liquid hydrogen stored at around minus 250 degrees Celsius (minus 418 F).

It's then converted to gas in vaporizer towers, pressurized and transferred to smaller storage tanks for distribution.

hmm, I guess so gaseous hydrogen in the car and at the fueling station but liquid hydrogen in other parts of the infrastructure. Apparently I skimmed instead of reading far enough down.

Liquid H2 is one of the transportation/storage options; the cars all use gaseous. Right now, pipeline and trailer transport plus storage is all going to be gaseous, but liquid has volume advantages. I posted some numbers and links in the H2 thread, but from hazy memory gaseous H2 tanker trucks were limited to something like 150-250 kg. of H2, while going to liquid allowed something like 900 kg. to be carried. Using liquid H2 for storage is also under consideration, but IIRR there are issues there that don't apply to shorter-length transport.

 

[AndyH]

I'm not sure what all the rhetoric is about.

With respect, I did receive the message of 'uncertainty' - no problem.

I don't care that it is technically a hybrid or that it has electric motors. I care that I can't plug it into a J1172 or Chademo or Tesla connector to charge it.

Yes, I fully understand that you want a plug. Really. Loud and clear.

And frankly, I don't care one way or another.

Yes yes - everyone gasp and throw tomatoes if you wish - here, let me help: :evil: :roll: :shock: :?

Now that that's over with , let's switch into pragmatic mode for a minute: We have a very serious series of problems on the planet and my focus isn't through a microscope so as to only see the "BEV" portion of the possible solution base - my interest is in the FULL SET of possible solutions.

Yes, I do note the potential for conflict between you POV and mine - and have a small stack of rocks in the corner from others on this forum that prefer their microscope as well :lol: and that's fine.

Let me make clear - I've lived in a non-walkable city with crappy mass transit since 2001. I've lived here with and without a car, with and without an electric-assist bicycle, and now with a BEV as my sole vehicle. We have a handful of L2 public charging sites and no L3 of any type within driving distance of a LEAF, much less my Smart. When I want to leave town I have to rent a car - and the only options are ICE. In spite of only leaving town twice in the past year, the two drives to visit family and friends totaled more miles driven than I've driven in the Smart the rest of the year. To add insult to injury, I'll be renting a large truck for a day next week to get some building materials home from the local lumber yard. BEVs have some very significant limitations - range and a serious lack of recharging infrastructure are the two biggies, but carrying capability and battery degradation are two more.

Again - today, in the real world away from the Pacific Coast, owning one BEV means that less than 50% of miles driven are electric.

Anyone that suggests that we should be pushing for a BEV-only solution is very likely not looking at how vehicles are used in the world and probably hasn't done the math to see if we have enough aluminum and copper to make all the batteries we need - even if we ignore the lack of factories required to make the cells and packs. A monopoly is not resilient. Many options in the ecosystem is much more resilient. The march of so-called 'progress' in our modern world, and the mindset required to see that as 'good' continues to paint us into a corner. When a person needs capability rather than a new religion, they don't feel comfortable being painted into a corner. And that, more than anything else, directly supports delaying, not accelerating, the deployment of electric vehicles.

Andy

 

[dhanson865]

Let me make clear - I've lived in a non-walkable city with crappy mass transit since 2001. I've lived here with and without a car, with and without an electric-assist bicycle, and now with a BEV as my sole vehicle. We have a handful of L2 public charging sites and no L3 of any type within driving distance of a LEAF, much less my Smart. When I want to leave town I have to rent a car - and the only options are ICE. In spite of only leaving town twice in the past year, the two drives to visit family and friends totaled more miles driven than I've driven in the Smart the rest of the year. To add insult to injury, I'll be renting a large truck for a day next week to get some building materials home from the local lumber yard. BEVs have some very significant limitations - range and a serious lack of recharging infrastructure are the two biggies, but carrying capability and battery degradation are two more.

Again - today, in the real world away from the Pacific Coast, owning one BEV means that less than 50% of miles driven are electric.

Anyone that suggests that we should be pushing for a BEV-only solution is very likely not looking at how vehicles are used in the world and probably hasn't done the math to see if we have enough aluminum and copper to make all the batteries we need - even if we ignore the lack of factories required to make the cells and packs. A monopoly is not resilient. Many options in the ecosystem is much more resilient. The march of so-called 'progress' in our modern world, and the mindset required to see that as 'good' continues to paint us into a corner. When a person needs capability rather than a new religion, they don't feel comfortable being painted into a corner. And that, more than anything else, directly supports delaying, not accelerating, the deployment of electric vehicles.

Andy

Thanks, now we are talking about something real world and not just definitions of acronyms.

Non walkable city, check
crappy public transit, check
Not on the pacific coast, check
Truck use, point made.

Leaving town, last time I did I was driven to the airport by my wife no need for an Gas or Fuel Cell vehicle. But Tesla drivers drive across country like its nothing. I don't see driving out of town as a long term barrier to use or conversion of the fleet.

Now as to the assertion in p2 you get 50% of your real world miles BEV. My counter is:

I live in Knoxville, TN a regressive anti EV area, anti solar, anti progress, anti change. I have had a BEV since May 2015 and have driven it as the primary vehicle between my wife and I. That means not only did it do 100% of the miles for me, it also is her preferred vehicle for trips when I'm not using the car. So lets call it 125% of my miles are BEV. She has to use the Prius when she wants to go to work while I have the Leaf so she isn't 100% BEV but that is only because I haven't been able to sell our two gas cars yet. I'm sure at some point down the road I'll sell both gassers and be glad I did.

I drove the Leaf 200+ miles from the used car dealership home. Since then my longest trip has been maybe 20 or 25 miles one way and the return trip. If I had to drive to the airport that is 18 miles one way. They only way I could imagine driving further than 25 miles is if I were to visit the smokey mountains national park or go to pigeon forge/Gatlinburg. It's been several years since I've done either but for now I'd take the Prius for such a trip and later I'll have a BEV with more range that would do that fine.

I'm sure you've heard the hype for the Chevy Bolt/Tesla Model 3/Leaf 2 all which will have 200+ mile range? Cars like that will cover my once every 5 years kind of travel. Heck a 24 kWh leaf covers all my once a year type trips now. I've done thanksgiving and Christmas with it already.

Maybe your town in Texas is a little less population dense than my town in East TN. Maybe a 24 kWh pack doesn't wow you. But I don't share your disbelief in being able to produce enough 60+ kWh packs to convert the private fleet to BEV. I know it'll take decades to do it but I don't think we'll run low on the materials needed to do so.

 

[AndyH]

Let me make clear - I've lived in a non-walkable city with crappy mass transit since 2001. I've lived here with and without a car, with and without an electric-assist bicycle, and now with a BEV as my sole vehicle. We have a handful of L2 public charging sites and no L3 of any type within driving distance of a LEAF, much less my Smart. When I want to leave town I have to rent a car - and the only options are ICE. In spite of only leaving town twice in the past year, the two drives to visit family and friends totaled more miles driven than I've driven in the Smart the rest of the year. To add insult to injury, I'll be renting a large truck for a day next week to get some building materials home from the local lumber yard. BEVs have some very significant limitations - range and a serious lack of recharging infrastructure are the two biggies, but carrying capability and battery degradation are two more.

Again - today, in the real world away from the Pacific Coast, owning one BEV means that less than 50% of miles driven are electric.

Anyone that suggests that we should be pushing for a BEV-only solution is very likely not looking at how vehicles are used in the world and probably hasn't done the math to see if we have enough aluminum and copper to make all the batteries we need - even if we ignore the lack of factories required to make the cells and packs. A monopoly is not resilient. Many options in the ecosystem is much more resilient. The march of so-called 'progress' in our modern world, and the mindset required to see that as 'good' continues to paint us into a corner. When a person needs capability rather than a new religion, they don't feel comfortable being painted into a corner. And that, more than anything else, directly supports delaying, not accelerating, the deployment of electric vehicles.

Andy

Thanks, now we are talking about something real world and not just definitions of acronyms.

Non walkable city, check
crappy public transit, check
Not on the pacific coast, check
Truck use, point made.

Leaving town, last time I did I was driven to the airport by my wife no need for an Gas or Fuel Cell vehicle. But Tesla drivers drive across country like its nothing. I don't see driving out of town as a long term barrier to use or conversion of the fleet.

Now as to the assertion in p2 you get 50% of your real world miles BEV. My counter is:

I live in Knoxville, TN a regressive anti EV area, anti solar, anti progress, anti change. I have had a BEV since May 2015 and have driven it as the primary vehicle between my wife and I. That means not only did it do 100% of the miles for me, it also is her preferred vehicle for trips when I'm not using the car. So lets call it 125% of my miles are BEV. She has to use the Prius when she wants to go to work while I have the Leaf so she isn't 100% BEV but that is only because I haven't been able to sell our two gas cars yet. I'm sure at some point down the road I'll sell both gassers and be glad I did.

I drove the Leaf 200+ miles from the used car dealership home. Since then my longest trip has been maybe 20 or 25 miles one way and the return trip. If I had to drive to the airport that is 18 miles one way. They only way I could imagine driving further than 25 miles is if I were to visit the smokey mountains national park or go to pigeon forge/Gatlinburg. It's been several years since I've done either but for now I'd take the Prius for such a trip and later I'll have a BEV with more range that would do that fine.

I'm sure you've heard the hype for the Chevy Bolt/Tesla Model 3/Leaf 2 all which will have 200+ mile range? Cars like that will cover my once every 5 years kind of travel. Heck a 24 kWh leaf covers all my once a year type trips now. I've done thanksgiving and Christmas with it already.

Maybe your town in Texas is a little less population dense than my town in East TN. Maybe a 24 kWh pack doesn't wow you. But I don't share your disbelief in being able to produce enough 60+ kWh packs to convert the private fleet to BEV. I know it'll take decades to do it but I don't think we'll run low on the materials needed to do so.

Some important points from your rebuttal - I no longer fly. I don't own any back-up ICE vehicles. My analysis included almost all travel...except I neglected to include the four times I rode with my ex and son for trips to the in-laws (720 miles total), and the side-trip with a friend to visit Shiloh once my rental got me to Memphis. That makes much less than 50% all EV travel.

My town is San Antonio - seventh largest in the country. My concern about batteries isn't based on belief but on the lack of enough manufacturing on the planet to make sufficient numbers of batteries, lack of plans to build enough, that we're at peak aluminum and peak copper, and that we need to get the fleet off fossil fuel by 2050 at the latest in order to have a chance of impacting climate change.

Sorry no - ain't looking good for the home team.

 

[dhanson865]

My town is San Antonio - seventh largest in the country. My concern about batteries isn't based on belief but on the lack of enough manufacturing on the planet to make sufficient numbers of batteries, lack of plans to build enough, that we're at peak aluminum and peak copper, and that we need to get the fleet off fossil fuel by 2050 at the latest in order to have a chance of impacting climate change.

Sorry no - ain't looking good for the home team.

citations please.

Peak aluminum per http://www.roperld.com/science/minerals/bauxite.htm is something of a 2040 or so issue and I have no confidence factor in that source, just Google wants to take me to home depot when I search peak aluminum.

Peak copper doesn't even have a consensus or a graph to point to a theoretical time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper but for kicks lets say it's similar to aluminum and will peak around 2050 or so.

In the mean time we get plenty of time to build EVs and even after peak we'll still make EVs. We'll just recycle more than we do now as prices rise.

When the time comes we may find that the reserves/supply side picture wasn't accurate and there is more to come just like what happened with oil in the last 5-10 years.

As to plans to do it Tesla is leading the way and others will follow, I don't buy that we won't have supplies to do it and I don't buy that we won't have businesses willing to do it.

Now if your only concern is climate change and the pace of warming then sure, I have no great expectation that we'll slow the rate any time soon. Even as we are switching to EVs and Solar PV oil is getting cheaper. It's looking like we'll pump and burn every possible drop of it and keep the greenhouse gas emissions rising for the foreseeable future.

But I still expect EVs to ramp up, and don't see any need to switch to Fuel Cells of any kind.

 

[AndyH]

My town is San Antonio - seventh largest in the country. My concern about batteries isn't based on belief but on the lack of enough manufacturing on the planet to make sufficient numbers of batteries, lack of plans to build enough, that we're at peak aluminum and peak copper, and that we need to get the fleet off fossil fuel by 2050 at the latest in order to have a chance of impacting climate change.

Sorry no - ain't looking good for the home team.

citations please.

Peak aluminum per http://www.roperld.com/science/minerals/bauxite.htm is something of a 2040 or so issue and I have no confidence factor in that source, just Google wants to take me to home depot when I search peak aluminum.

Peak copper doesn't even have a consensus or a graph to point to a theoretical time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper but for kicks lets say it's similar to aluminum and will peak around 2050 or so.

In the mean time we get plenty of time to build EVs and even after peak we'll still make EVs. We'll just recycle more than we do now as prices rise.

When the time comes we may find that the reserves/supply side picture wasn't accurate and there is more to come just like what happened with oil in the last 5-10 years.

As to plans to do it Tesla is leading the way and others will follow, I don't buy that we won't have supplies to do it and I don't buy that we won't have businesses willing to do it.

Now if your only concern is climate change and the pace of warming then sure, I have no great expectation that we'll slow the rate any time soon. Even as we are switching to EVs and Solar PV oil is getting cheaper. It's looking like we'll pump and burn every possible drop of it and keep the greenhouse gas emissions rising for the foreseeable future.

But I still expect EVs to ramp up, and don't see any need to switch to Fuel Cells of any kind.

Please note that you missed the most important point - that we don't have the battery production anywhere in the world to keep up with current demand, much less roll out enough BEVs to get even close to meeting any climate goals. And there are no plans to build enough factories - anywhere - by anyone, including Musk. Even with their own joint venture (and adding one of the planet's largest cell manufacturers besides) even Benz can't get close to the demand for the SMART with its tiny 17kWh battery, much less the new LEAF with 30 or the Tesla.

http://inside.mines.edu/UserFiles/F.../Misc PDFs/Copper-Science-2014-Kerr-722-4.pdf
The peak is well before aluminum on our current course - see how much faster it happens if we magically cut/paste enough Musk-eque Gigafactories all over land better used for food, or on magical floating factory barges in the Pacific...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHGE6vU1VLE[/youtube]

In order to get anywhere close to meeting current demand much less the very high rate of geometric growth needed to meet any climate goals by 2050 by electrifying transportation we need many more alternatives - yes, including fuel cells and flow batteries and electric trains and HVDC grids, etc. etc. This is a perfect example of how attempts to solve the BEV problem with simple linear thinking is going to kill us just like we're already killing so many other species on this planet.

I don't mean to attack or to be snarky here - I am genuinely concerned about what happens to life on this rock if we don't change course starting yesterday. I don't buy into the 'doomer' view that it's too late and that we'd better buy a horse now and avoid the rush. But it's pretty clear that 'business as usual' and the thinking processes that go with it is way off the mark.

 

[AndyH]

My town is San Antonio - seventh largest in the country. My concern about batteries isn't based on belief but on the lack of enough manufacturing on the planet to make sufficient numbers of batteries, lack of plans to build enough, that we're at peak aluminum and peak copper, and that we need to get the fleet off fossil fuel by 2050 at the latest in order to have a chance of impacting climate change.

Sorry no - ain't looking good for the home team.

citations please.

Another view of mining and peaks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFyTSiCXWEE

 

[dhanson865]

Another view of mining and peaks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFyTSiCXWEE

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/02/22/3720343/peak-oil-demand/

Demand will drop before we run out of supply. There will be a peak, and prices will change but it isn't the Peak we thought of in the 70s.

 

[GRA]

Via GCR:

Electric Cars To Be 35 Percent Of Global Sales By 2040: Energy Analyst

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1102545_electric-cars-to-be-35-percent-of-global-sales-by-2040-energy-analyst

Despite steady progress over the past few years, electric cars still make up only a very small percentage of the tens of millions of new cars sold globally every year. And while that won't change immediately, energy-industry analysts believe a surge in electric-car sales could be just around the corner. Electric cars and plug-in hybrids could come to represent 35 percent of new light-duty vehicle sales by 2040, according to a recent report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. . . .