mbender
Well-known member
Using conservative guesses and calculations, here's what I come up with:
For each 1% of the passenger/light-duty fleet that transitions to electric,
I suspect that the sum of those two things (plus intangible benefits) makes up for the roughly $150 million that would have been paid as the federal gasoline tax*.
Numbers/assumptions used above:
I'd be happy to be corrected, but surely this issue will need to be addressed some time, regardless of the exact numbers. (Hopefully the 1% used above will be reached soon: even though EVs currently constitute only about 0.1% of U.S. passenger vehicles, our numbers are growing exponentially!)
* "Gas tax" is a bit misleading imo, since it is actually much more of a surcharge than a tax (because it's a fixed amount). Had it been a percent (of sales price) when it was last changed 20+ years ago, can you imagine difference in revenue that it would have brought in? It might have also accelerated the transition to electric more than is already the case, given that price-at-the-pump would be that much higher. All topics for another post, though.
For each 1% of the passenger/light-duty fleet that transitions to electric,
- roughly $3.5 billion per year stays in the U.S. [economy] rather than going overseas for petroleum, and
- roughly $50 million per year is saved on the interest not due on the increase to the national debt because that money remained in the U.S.
I suspect that the sum of those two things (plus intangible benefits) makes up for the roughly $150 million that would have been paid as the federal gasoline tax*.
Numbers/assumptions used above:
- $1 billion / day sent overseas for petroleum for entire passenger vehicle fleet.
- 1-2% average interest rate on the national debt.
- $15 billion revenue per year from the federal fuel tax/surcharge (for light-duty vehicles, out of $25 total).
I'd be happy to be corrected, but surely this issue will need to be addressed some time, regardless of the exact numbers. (Hopefully the 1% used above will be reached soon: even though EVs currently constitute only about 0.1% of U.S. passenger vehicles, our numbers are growing exponentially!)
* "Gas tax" is a bit misleading imo, since it is actually much more of a surcharge than a tax (because it's a fixed amount). Had it been a percent (of sales price) when it was last changed 20+ years ago, can you imagine difference in revenue that it would have brought in? It might have also accelerated the transition to electric more than is already the case, given that price-at-the-pump would be that much higher. All topics for another post, though.