Read This -->>> No New 2013 Battery

[TonyWilliams]

I know folks keep clinging to a new 2013 with whatever upgrade that makes their LEAF experience better. The best Nissan will offer is a 25% cheaper battery, by virtue of the Yen to Dollar exchange rate.

Tuesday, Oct 2, 2012: Andy Palmer, executive vice president at Nissan, said the company had NO PLANS to upgrade the purely electric Leaf with a new, longer-range battery, or NO PLANS to add an active temperature management system for its battery packs. Mr. Palmer, at a press briefing on Tuesday in Lower Manhattan, discussed the automaker’s E.V. strategy in light of recent attacks aimed at the program.

Reacting to criticism from a group of Leaf owners in Arizona claiming their batteries lost a measure of charging capacity more quickly than expected, Nissan announced last month it would convene an advisory board to improve the company’s engagement with the E.V. community. Mr. Palmer said the 2013 Leaf, scheduled to begin production soon in Smyrna, Tenn., would include many small improvements, but NO MAJOR CHANGES.

Please don't wait around for a 2013 because of the battery issues. It will be the same. If you need a heat pump, or optional 6.6kW charger, or optional leather interior, or dark color interior option, or an additional color option, or "North American design cues", then wait for Feb/Mar 2013 when those cars finally reach the dealers to buy/lease.

Nissan really needs to unload the 2012's. With almost 4 months supply in dealerships, they are almost giving these cars away. Go get one if you can't wait, or don't need the 2013 options. If you think the price of the car will significantly drop below today's price, that's your gamble. I don't believe it will (beyond the fantastic deals we have now).

Nissan is going to EAT these lease returns with $17k-$18k residuals, when those cars won't be worth close to that with clapped out batteries (remember, they are the same battery probably for 2014, too).

 

[adric22]

Allow me to play devil's advocate here for a moment. When I used to work for AST computer back in the 1990's and there had been some layoffs, I asked the head of the division I worked at if there would be any more layoffs because I was thinking of buying a new house. He said something similar, assuring me that there would be no more layoffs. But then 2 weeks later, we all found out we were going to be laid off. Obviously, the manager knew this, but was not at liberty to say.

So, just because Nissan says this, I do not necessarily guarantee it to be true. After all, as mentioned they do have a backlog of Leafs to sell. You wouldn't want to have the "Osburn Effect" at this stage.

Personally, though, I'm going to say what he said is probably true, but there's a 25% chance it is not.

 

[cwerdna]

For those who might not know... adric22's referring to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

 

[TonyWilliams]

Allow me to play devil's advocate here for a moment. When I used to work for AST computer back in the 1990's

I bought stock in "Alfred, Safi, Thomas" on their initial stock offering. Made LOTS of money (if I recall, $7.50 to about $24).

 

[TEG]

Nissan is going to EAT these lease returns with $17k-$18k residuals...

Keep in mind that they got the $7500 tax credit.
Plus for ones sold in California they got the ZEV credits to offset their gas cars...
How much are those worth? Maybe $5K ?
(Although at this point they are probably swimming in ZEV credits. Maybe they can sell some to another manufacturer.)

 

[scottf200]

Tuesday, Oct 2, 2012: Andy Palmer, executive vice president at Nissan, said the company had NO PLANS to upgrade the purely electric Leaf with a new, longer-range battery, or NO PLANS to add an active temperature management system for its battery packs. Mr. Palmer, at a press briefing on Tuesday in Lower Manhattan, discussed the automaker’s E.V. strategy in light of recent attacks aimed at the program.
...
Mr. Palmer said the 2013 Leaf, scheduled to begin production soon in Smyrna, Tenn., would include many small improvements, but NO MAJOR CHANGES.

Quotes appear to be from this NY Times article in case others were looking.
October 3, 2012, 11:12 AM
Facing Owner Complaints on Leaf E.V., Nissan Executive Defends Company’s Record
By JIM MOTAVALLI
http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/03/facing-owner-complaints-on-leaf-e-v-nissan-executive-defends-companys-record/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
(added it to the waybackmachine archive but using the 'latest' option and it then appears to start tracking it)

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
Thanks!

Articles like the above are good candidates to add to the Internet Wayback Machine (http://archive.org/web/web.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false. I've posted about it at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=9553" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; before...

 

[TonyWilliams]

Nissan is going to EAT these lease returns with $17k-$18k residuals...

Keep in mind that they got the $7500 tax credit.
Plus for ones sold in California they got the ZEV credits to offset their gas cars...
How much are those worth? Maybe $5K ?
(Although at this point they are probably swimming in ZEV credits. Maybe they can sell some to another manufacturer.)

Yes, all excellent points. But seriously, every 39 month lease return from a hot place is going to need a new battery to resell. I would further predict that a sizable number won't even make 39 months before needing that battery.

The $7500 fed credit was factored in at the sale. That's how the leases are so low, plus jacked up residual, and almost free money factor. So, they own that whole residual. If the ZEV credits are worth $5k, that might offset putting in a new battery, but even then, I see them eating some residual (and GM, too).

Any ZEV credits, they take or sell them right away, so I would guess limited carryover to lease return time.

 

[EVDrive]

Well if true that they are not upgrading the battery, then that is quite a buzkill.

 

[TEG]

...But seriously, every 39 month lease return from a hot place is going to need a new battery to resell. I would further predict that a sizable number won't even make 39 months before needing that battery...

Yes, I suspect they didn't factor that into their plans when they worked out the lease pricing.
Premature battery replacements could cause them some serious financial pain...

 

[kmp647]

you have to wonder what nissan will do with lease turn ins, as tony says , many will have missing capacity bars.

When a lease car gets turned in the dealer has the first right to purchase, but most of lease cars are not purchased, they let the mfr take the car to a processing center or directly to an auction.

You can bet dealers will avoid trades and refuse to purchase off lease Leaf cars, especially cars missing bars
this will be most apparent in AZ,TX, and CA. it will start in march of 2014

those cars will not be refurbished, they will likely go directly to a public auction, where used car dealers will bid for them
the prices will be low, lower than these residuals, you can count on that and Nissan will lose their A// on these cars.

They will then show up on used car lots and even non-nissan dealer lots as used cars offered to the public.
Joe consumer will then pick up a used 2011 leaf with 45,000 miles and 10/12 bars showing.
As we know and have seen many consumers , even owners wont recognize the meaning of these bars........
they will figure it out when the range and use of the car is discovered in use, and take the car to Nissan dealers to complain, where they will be told "normal capacity loss"

Nissan might end up with so many Leaf lease turn ins they may have to ship them overseas to a less affluent country (or a really small island) where they will be snapped up.

 

[ydnas7]

Amongst other aspects, Nissan's low lease rates might reflect the following

Increased confidence by Nissan in their batteries (despite decreased confidence by the public in Nissan's batteries)
Expectation that rebates will disappear by 2015
Residual value of batteries for 2nd life applications (electricity utilities probably value batteries that Nissan has maintained ownership/history over in preference to open market batteries)
Forecast that competitor's just aren't interested in selling mass market EVs (Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Ford, GM) but that EV buyer's will want to either purchase their car at end of lease or buy a new EV likely to be Nissan (after all, in 2015 Nissan's competitors will still be just Mitsubishi or Tesla - both are different offerings to LEAF)

 

[adric22]

I think you guys are crazy. I think the residual on the Leaf is very reasonable. I think mine is $15,000 and I'd be crazy not to go ahead and buy the vehicle at the end of the lease since i've been perfectly happy with it for 18 months and no capacity loss. Even if I have some capacity loss, it would have to be a lot of loss before I'd consider turning it in. Where else can you buy an EV with a fantastic record of reliability and a range of maybe 60 miles or more for $15,000? I believe even those Leafs with higher than usual capacity loss will still sell easily at those prices as long as they will still drive 50 miles or more reliably. When I re-finance my Leaf, my car payment should drop from around $400 a month down to probably $280. Also consider the purchase will be tax-free for me, so that saves money even over another car selling at the same price.

On the other hand - The Volt is the one I worry about. Our residual on the Volt is $26,000. So if we decide to purchase that car at the end of our lease our payment will INCREASE from $331 a month now to $490 per month. So we'll have to think real hard about that decision when the time comes. May have to turn the Volt in and upgrade to a newer one if the leases are still fantastic.

On the other hand - if the EV tax credits are discontinued by that point then we'll definitely hold on to both of our cars because buying a new one would suddenly become way too expensive.

 

[Stanton]

I didn't realize there was such a huge difference between the Leaf and Volt lease residuals (not that I would have leased anyway).
I believe the Federal tax credit (currently $7500) will definitely be gone by 2015, and maybe even after this next election (2013).
While Nissan may have to replace some (lease return) battery packs, I think the Leaf's will hold their value better than many think.

 

[edatoakrun]

I didn't realize there was such a huge difference between the Leaf and Volt lease residuals (not that I would have leased anyway).
I believe the Federal tax credit (currently $7500) will definitely be gone by 2015, and maybe even after this next election (2013).
While Nissan may have to replace some (lease return) battery packs, I think the Leaf's will hold their value better than many think.

GM has had to use inflated residuals to find buyers (lessees, actually) for the Volt from the launch.

Any of the LEAF lease return that have significant battery capacity loss will have the batteries replaced and be sold by Nissan in some sort of "certified" used car program, at a premium price. No big deal. All BEV batteries loses capacity over time, not the BEVs themselves.

I'm very glad Nissan is continuing to produce the current battery design, and I expect Nissan will probably continue to (maybe with slight improvements) for several, or even for many, years.

IMO, Nissan realizes what the "compliance" BEV manufactures still don't seem to. The key to a successful BEV program is to build cars and batteries in large enough numbers, so that not only can the manufacturing cost per vehicle and per kWh for the batteries be reduced, but a secondary market for batteries with reduced capacity can be developed, so as to reduce the "trade-in cost" for replacement batteries, for LEAF owners with reduced battery capacity, due to normal use.

IIRC, the model T was introduced a t ~$750 price, and this was reduced to ~$250 over almost two decades of production and sales.

There were many far superior ICEVs on the market during this time, but Ford understood the essential reality, that his primary competition was not with the low volume higher-priced ICEV manufacturers of the day, he was competing with the only alternatives the huge mass of his market had, horses, trains, streetcars, and bicycles.

For the LEAF to be a mass-market success, it does not have to be superior to a Tesla S, or even a RAV 4.

Nissan only needs to produce superior utility to the ICEVs, hybrids, and PHEVs on the market with comparable total ownership costs.

I believe Nissan has done this, and that's why I expect The LEAF to be quite profitable for Nissan, at high sales volumes.

 

[scottf200]

Any of the LEAF lease return that have significant battery capacity loss will have the batteries replaced and be sold by Nissan in some sort of "certified" used car program, at a premium price. No big deal. All BEV batteries loses capacity over time, not the BEVs themselves.

I'm very glad Nissan is continuing to produce the current battery design, and I expect Nissan will probably continue to (maybe with slight improvements) for several, or even for many, years.

:!: :!:
Next summer could be a BEV disaster if it continues. People would only trust PHEVs, IMHO (perhaps Nissan's in 2015 as they reported building recently)

 

[WetEV]

I know folks keep clinging to a new 2013 with whatever upgrade that makes their LEAF experience better. The best Nissan will offer is a 25% cheaper battery, by virtue of the Yen to Dollar exchange rate.

Nissan is going to EAT these lease returns with $17k-$18k residuals, when those cars won't be worth close to that with clapped out batteries (remember, they are the same battery probably for 2014, too).

Assuming some truth to the rumor of the current price of the battery pack is $5000, a 25% cheaper battery would under $4000. Seems to me that a used Leaf with a brand new battery would be worth near the $21k to $22k range.

 

[jspearman]

I know folks keep clinging to a new 2013 with whatever upgrade that makes their LEAF experience better. The best Nissan will offer is a 25% cheaper battery, by virtue of the Yen to Dollar exchange rate.

Nissan is going to EAT these lease returns with $17k-$18k residuals, when those cars won't be worth close to that with clapped out batteries (remember, they are the same battery probably for 2014, too).

Assuming some truth to the rumor of the current price of the battery pack is $5000, a 25% cheaper battery would under $4000. Seems to me that a used Leaf with a brand new battery would be worth near the $21k to $22k range.

That $5000 price turned out to be bunk, since it's a remanufactured battery, not a new battery, plus there's no evidence that the $5K figure is accurate, either, unless you trust everything Orient Express says. It's still a huge guessing game.

Has Chelsea Sexton contacted anyone here yet? It seems silly that they would assemble an advisory panel without owners.

 

[thankyouOB]

I know folks keep clinging to a new 2013 with whatever upgrade that makes their LEAF experience better. The best Nissan will offer is a 25% cheaper battery, by virtue of the Yen to Dollar exchange rate.

Nissan is going to EAT these lease returns with $17k-$18k residuals, when those cars won't be worth close to that with clapped out batteries (remember, they are the same battery probably for 2014, too).

Assuming some truth to the rumor of the current price of the battery pack is $5000, a 25% cheaper battery would under $4000. Seems to me that a used Leaf with a brand new battery would be worth near the $21k to $22k range.

That $5000 price turned out to be bunk, since it's a remanufactured battery, not a new battery, plus there's no evidence that the $5K figure is accurate, either, unless you trust everything Orient Express says. It's still a huge guessing game.

Has Chelsea Sexton contacted anyone here yet? It seems silly that they would assemble an advisory panel without owners.

talk is cheap, on the advisory board end.
and that nissan executive has not gotten back to us, though it has been reported that he lurks.

what is the cost of a new battery, installed, oh lurking nissan man?

 

[TonyWilliams]

unless you trust everything Orient Express says. It's still a huge guessing game.

Has Chelsea Sexton contacted anyone here yet? It seems silly that they would assemble an advisory panel without owners.

Well, I seriously doubt that OE has any first hand experience here, and is merely parroting what other RELIABLE posters have said. I personally can believe an exchange program at $5000, but not an outright sale. Otherwise, Nissan should stop producing LEAF, and just sell batteries below every other manufacturers cost per kWh. They'll make tons of money.

Chelsea has made contact with LEAF owners, including me. She was with Andy Palmer in New York Tuesday. Things are getting assembled, and like all projects, take time, effort, and patience.

I personally believe that any advisory board include not only NON-owners, but competitors.