Random thoughts about range

[adric22]

For a 10-year old (or older) Leaf? No. Sure, new EVs will be a lot better - lighter, cheaper, more range, less degradation over time, and then some. But in 2021, almost nobody is going to be putting a new pack in their 2011 Leaf. Even if a new pack is $4,000 by then, that's probably about the blue book value of the entire car. That's one reason I'm hopeful that we have 100 miles of real, useful range from the beginning.

I disagree.. For example, I just bought a 2002 Prius a few months ago for $2,800. It is in great shape, but the battery pack was dead. So I spent another $2,000 and put a new battery in it. So now I have a great hybrid for only $5,000. And since the Prius is known to be very reliable, with the battery pack being the main source of any expensive repair, I expect to get a lot of life left out of it (if it weren't for the fact I'm buying a Leaf)

So I quite expect that when these used EVs start showing up in auctions and such with bad battery packs, people are going to buy them up and replace the battery. I expect a well made EV could have a usable life span of 20 years, double that of a traditional car.

 

[evnow]

... but I don't see how that gives automotive battery chemistries any advantage.

Not saying that. The $ going to research now is probably an order of magnitude more for automotive battery - so won't be surpised if next big breakthroughs to come in automotive battery and then trickle down to other areas. Not a month goes by without someone inventing a new way to increase Li ED by an order of magnitude in the lab. I'd bet atleast one of those technologies make it to a commercial car in the next decade.

I wouldn't be surprised if we can get a $10K battery pack that can take us 500 miles in 2020. That just requires halving of price every 5 years or so.

 

[Bicster]

Gotcha. Yep, I'm sure there'll be some sort of Moore's Law for automotive batteries.

250 miles at $5000 would likely make EVs popular without any subsidies. Especially with $4-5 gas.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

these posts should go back to the "range anxiety" thread.

i dont feel that i am on the bleeding edge by getting a car that only does 100 miles. heck the one i drive now only gets 20 miles, THAT is the bleeding edge.

a freeway capable Leaf that gets as little as 70 miles could very well be my "end" vehicle. i, like most am in a multi-vehicle household where we could easily "make do" with a limited range vehicle. its simply not that much of a compromise.

now, if it were my only vehicle, then that would be a compromise. but the Leaf we plan to use every day and it will be our main family car for all but the occasional out of town trip for which we will use the Prius.

now, in 5 years or 10 or how ever long it takes, i envision EV's that get a 400-500 mile range and when they are here, i will not have regreted a single penny of the money i spent on that poor old Leaf i picked up way back in 2010

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

these posts should go back to the "range anxiety" thread.

i dont feel that i am on the bleeding edge by getting a car that only does 100 miles. heck the one i drive now only gets 20 miles, THAT is the bleeding edge.

a freeway capable Leaf that gets as little as 70 miles could very well be my "end" vehicle. i, like most am in a multi-vehicle household where we could easily "make do" with a limited range vehicle. its simply not that much of a compromise.

now, if it were my only vehicle, then that would be a compromise. but the Leaf we plan to use every day and it will be our main family car for all but the occasional out of town trip for which we will use the Prius.

now, in 5 years or 10 or how ever long it takes, i envision EV's that get a 400-500 mile range and when they are here, i will not have regreted a single penny of the money i spent on that poor old Leaf i picked up way back in 2010