Only 3300 leafs will be available by march? Nissan Denies.

[Gavin]

I will just add...

Nissan, please add New Mexico to the Texas Hawaii time frame.

Thank you very much.

Gavin

 

[TimeHorse]

I will just add...

Nissan, please add New Mexico to the Texas Hawaii time frame.

Thank you very much.

Gavin

Even though this may set my car back a month since I'm after Texas and Hawaii, seconded and although this wouldn't effect me except by adding a few more to my tier, can we please add LA and MS to the list? Haven't they suffered enough from BP? And can't we keep the South in tact? Not that Florida is really part of the south, except the pan-handle.

 

[hodad66]

panhandle? you mean south Georgia....... :mrgreen:

 

[LakeLeaf]

Lakeleaf, I live in California and I pre-ordered my Leaf on May 15. My calculations say there were about 10,000 nationwide orders ahead of me by then and about 5,000 in the original launch States ( maybe as many as 7000). I have an order date of January. A January order date probably means I will receive delivery in the May time period. What do those facts suggest to you concerning production?

In Nissan's 5 May press release Hawaii selected as an early launch state for the Nissan LEAF electric vehicle they say In the U.S., more than 8,200 people have reserved a Nissan LEAF. So, if that press release is accurate your guess seems to be about right as to your place in the order line in the US.

There are also cars that need to go to dealers at some point, and it's reasonable to expect those to be folded into the mix by that point.

If Nissan lops off ~4000 worldwide orders each month starting in September - as that appears to be their production capability (with August appearing to be just a select few orders), then that would put January in the ~16,000th to ~20,000th place in line. Taking into account worldwide orders and dealer cars, that doesn't seem to be out of line with what I said or your calculation. Whether the production delivery windows ends up being 2 months, 3 months, 4 months, or some other number of months is still to be seen.

I'd still guess, as discussed early, that you will get delivery in Q2 2011 - quite possibly early Q2. The OP started with "only 3300 Leafs to be produced by March". I questioned that statement as it just doesn't jive with how cars are manufactured by major automobile companies, whether those cars are electric or otherwise.

 

[evnow]

If Nissan lops off ~4000 worldwide orders each month starting in September ...

Apparently you didn't read my post on that. Assume 4K per month only starting around March. They have said 13K by March '11.

If they make "4K each month starting in September" - they would have 28K cars by March. Even if you start in October, like they said, It would be 24K cars - 11K too many.

 

[lne937s]

I was under the impression that the assembly line was starting to run in November with the plan to reach full production before December. From what my friends who work on some of GM's lines tell me, once a line has been retooled for a new vehicle, they pretty much just start to pump them out. In other words - it's a very steep ramp. Don't forget to add a couple of weeks for shipping to the manufacture date. There are guys in PriusChat how are experts at tracking their cars from the line, to a particular ship, and that ship to a port in the US. There is a whole website set up for ship tracking. And don't forget that the engine and transmission on the Leaf are way easier to make then an ICE car.

Luckily, Nissan isn't GM. They do flexible assembly lines that can change from trucks to sedans in a few hours. They produce whatever is in greatest demand, rather than just cranking out one type of car. And the LEAF is one of the most vertically integrated vehicles Nissan makes- they are their own supplier for most parts.

I wouldn't assume that if they are slowing their initial supply to the US that they are having production problems. At launch, Nissan will have the entire country of Japan already connected with level 3 fast charger, while the US has yet to settle on a standard. I would figure that more cars go to Japan at first because they are more ready over there.

 

[LakeLeaf]

If Nissan lops off ~4000 worldwide orders each month starting in September ...

Apparently you didn't read my post on that. Assume 4K per month only starting around March. They have said 13K by March '11.

I haven't seen this statement. You won't mind supplying a pointer to where an official statement from the Nissan Leaf program says this, will you?

If they make "4K each month starting in September" - they would have 28K cars by March. Even if you start in October, like they said, It would be 24K cars - 11K too many.

You're not reading very well. I didn't say they would be producing 4000 cars in September, I said they would likely be processing about 4000 orders in September. That is - about 4000 people will get "the letter" from Nissan about finalizing their order in September. Those cars will likely be manufactured in December as per all of Nissan's previous public statements about manufacture and delivery, and their statements about the production capability of their Leaf plant.

Until Nissan makes an official statement to the contrary, I wouldn't put a lot of stock in delayed delivery dates. We'll all find out soon enough. August people are slated to start to get their "letters" in ten days, and once that happens, those people will, at some point, be given delivery dates.

Nissan can't just take an order and come up months later with "here's your car, come get it". Many of the buyers have to arrange for financing. This takes time for the buyer - at least for the smart buyer who shops for the best rates and applies for and gets approved for a car loan before walking into the dealer to purchase the car. Nissan has sold cars before, they know the drill. There will be plenty of notice to the buyer of when that car will be delivered to the selected dealership.

 

[LEAFfan]

If you reserved on Apr 20th and you are in the initial rollout state, you are virtually assured of getting Leaf by Mar '11.

Anyway, remember this 3,300 as the Mossy dealer said, keeps changing ...

What happened to their earlier quota when they said 5000, 1000 each for the five rollout states? Why didn't they keep to that?

 

[Gavin]

They decided to sell more in Japan...where there is better infrastructure and they get more money with each sale.

Gavin

 

[LEAFfan]

Nissan has stated many times that Oppama, Japan LEAF capacity is 50,000 units annually. It would not be unreasonable (and is often the case with a new vehicle) to start production at less than maximum capacity until such time that all systems are thoroughly verified to be operational at their intended level of quality. 50,000 divided by 12 is 4,166 units per month at full production. This production is for global consumption in Japan, US and Europe. If production is reduced initially and ramped up to maximum, it is highly likely that 3,300 US deliveries for the first four months of production is not out of the question. There have already been reports that European delivery has been delayed. If vehicles are being retained for the Japanese market (which, coincidentally, has the highest LEAF sales price (almost $41,000 before government incentives)) these numbers may prove to be right on. Just something to think about.

I was under the impression that the assembly line was starting to run in November with the plan to reach full production before December. From what my friends who work on some of GM's lines tell me, once a line has been retooled for a new vehicle, they pretty much just start to pump them out. In other words - it's a very steep ramp. Don't forget to add a couple of weeks for shipping to the manufacture date. There are guys in PriusChat how are experts at tracking their cars from the line, to a particular ship, and that ship to a port in the US. There is a whole website set up for ship tracking. And don't forget that the engine and transmission on the Leaf are way easier to make then an ICE car.

If Nissan is unable to hit full production by the beginning of December, I'd start looking at supply chain issues rather then all this talk about what features will be included or not included. There are just a few things unique to this car - with the batteries being the biggie. If Nissan can't hit full production, I'd be looking to see if the battery plant has been able to hit it's targets for both quantity and quality. The batteries are really the big item of concern, not which charging ports it might of might not have. Nissan knows how to design cars, how to manufacture cars, and how to deliver cars. If they can't deliver what they planned - look to the supply chain for Leaf unique parts.

Nissan has dumped a lot of money into this car and they are under pressure to get cars to market to start to recoup some of the investment. They certainly aren't going to hold up production because some actuarial can't make a call on a couple of hundred dollar part. They can't go back and tell suppliers to delay shipments by a few weeks of months. If they don't hit full production in December - they've got a big issue going on. They are going to be sitting on top of tens of millions of dollars of Leaf parts that they've taken delivery of from their suppliers, or worse - they'd be paying their suppliers to warehouse that stock.

Remember that in addition to all of the orders, they have dealers they need to get test cars too. They can't afford to delay except for some show-stopper issue. If the cars do just trickle out, I'd place my bet on battery manufacturing issues. There will be tremendous pressure on the company to get these things out the door. If they really do only manage to crank out 1000 a month, I'd be extremely cautious about buying one.

So anyway - I'd expect there to be over 6000 vehicles produced by the end of the year - 2000 in Nov and 4000 in Dec, with 4000 every month after that as long as demand exists for the volume. So according to my math, every one of the 18,000 pre-orders should be manufactured by the end of March - except that dealers also need to get cars. I'd guess by mid-2011 you will be able to walk into a dealer and buy a Leaf from the floor.

In what order they distribute those cars is anyone's guess. It does seem reasonable to ship first to Japan where the margins are higher, the buyers more sympathetic, and the cost of shipping any later-then-last-minute changes minimal. OTOH, the big market is really the US, so getting this market started is important too, and Europe is a pretty big place too. I don't suspect they will make many big delivery plan changes. These things should be coming off the boats so fast that Nissan has nothing to gain by playing major out-of-order delivery games.

Sorry LakeLeaf, but you are mistaken...a BEV/LEAF has NO transmission.

 

[MaryC]

If the dealers are to have a car to give test drives in October, wouldn't that mean they are starting some production now? That would be maybe 50-100 cars?

 

[cdub]

I don't think dealers will have cars for test drives - it'll be a ride and drive tour I believe.

 

[mwalsh]

Yeah, definitely a test drive tour. Dealers will be lucky to get demo cars come December.

 

[evnow]

If the dealers are to have a car to give test drives in October, wouldn't that mean they are starting some production now? That would be maybe 50-100 cars?

These could be preproduction (99%) cars - with finalized interior. I'm sure Nissan continues to build these preproduction cars in Aug & Sep. They just need to build and ship 100-200 cars to let all dealers have a demo car.

 

[desiboysf]

I have an order month of February 2011. Yes, yes...please...I hear the laughter. But my question is what do you think the delivery month would be for a February order? Also, what's the likelihood of the California $5K rebate funds still being available?

 

[LEAFfan]

I have an order month of February 2011. Yes, yes...please...I hear the laughter. But my question is what do you think the delivery month would be for a February order? Also, what's the likelihood of the California $5K rebate funds still being available?

I keep hearing about 90 days after ordering, so if you order the beginning of FEB, that would be May.

 

[evnow]

I have an order month of February 2011. Yes, yes...please...I hear the laughter. But my question is what do you think the delivery month would be for a February order? Also, what's the likelihood of the California $5K rebate funds still being available?

About half the reservation holders are from California. When did you order - you can findout how many orders were there at that time ...

 

[desiboysf]

I placed the order on July 28. So how many would be ahead of me at that point?

 

[evnow]

I placed the order on July 28. So how many would be ahead of me at that point?

7-8 K (total 15-16,000) ? Assume some 75 % of them will actually order - so you are looking at 5 to 6,000.

 

[mwalsh]

I placed the order on July 28. So how many would be ahead of me at that point?

Everyone, basically. :shock: