NYT says EV not worth it. Leaf = Versa

[lpickup]

as I said, he has some good things to say but they are lost in the faucet of words without any apparent internal regulator.

I feel the same way about my own posts! I tend to be very long winded at times and I'm sure people basically ignore everything I have to say...speaking of which....{snipped}

 

[thankyouOB]

as I said, he has some good things to say but they are lost in the faucet of words without any apparent internal regulator.

I feel the same way about my own posts! I tend to be very long winded at times and I'm sure people basically ignore everything I have to say...speaking of which....{snipped}

you be cool, dahling.

 

[thankyouOB]

Since Nissan obviously monitors this forum, I want to make sure that my opinions are heard. Of course, I also go in for more direct contact, via email and/or ftf; the more avenues I can communicate to the powers that be, the more likely that I'll be heard. If anyone thinks that I only do this for the Leaf, you should review my posts in the Coda sub-forum and on the MyCodasedan forum, in particular the thread "Upgrades I'd like to see". I am brand neutral, I just want someone to make a BEV that meets my major requirements; the more it meets the better. I am more interested in the Coda currently not because I think it's a nicer, more refined car than a Leaf, which it isn't, but because the big battery version may just have enough range for me. The Leaf wins hands down on body style and most features, although the Coda's 6.6 kW charger and manual 3 knob HVAC controls are a plus for me.

self-obsessed?
posted without further comment.

 

[GRA]

GRA's point is valid in that the combination of 1/3rd of the range with the waiting time of over 3 times to fill up over an ICE car, even using a QC, makes it impractical to do long trips for many. That does not have tobe stated many times over, as it is well understood.

He overlooks the fact that the current version of Leaf is meant more as a commute/errand car with occasional long distance trips, provided there is enough time and QCs on the way. I am sure there are millions who fit that profile.

Nah, I don't overlook it, I'm well aware of it. Indeed, I've said many times here that until affordable BEV range increases considerably (with the accompanying price drop), they will remain primarily urban/commute 2nd cars for well-to-do, home-owning households, the definition of a niche vehicle. If you happen to fall within that niche, good for you! I can only hope that the next generation will meet my needs.

 

[GRA]

Since Nissan obviously monitors this forum, I want to make sure that my opinions are heard. Of course, I also go in for more direct contact, via email and/or ftf; the more avenues I can communicate to the powers that be, the more likely that I'll be heard. If anyone thinks that I only do this for the Leaf, you should review my posts in the Coda sub-forum and on the MyCodasedan forum, in particular the thread "Upgrades I'd like to see". I am brand neutral, I just want someone to make a BEV that meets my major requirements; the more it meets the better. I am more interested in the Coda currently not because I think it's a nicer, more refined car than a Leaf, which it isn't, but because the big battery version may just have enough range for me. The Leaf wins hands down on body style and most features, although the Coda's 6.6 kW charger and manual 3 knob HVAC controls are a plus for me.

self-obsessed?
posted without further comment.

ISTM the section you highlighted is the basis of free-market capitalism -- you know, choice.

Ah well, enough of this.

 

[ttweed]

I've said many times here that until affordable BEV range increases considerably (with the accompanying price drop), they will remain primarily urban/commute 2nd cars for well-to-do, home-owning households...

Hey, I resemble that remark!
TT

 

[GRA]

I've said many times here that until affordable BEV range increases considerably (with the accompanying price drop), they will remain primarily urban/commute 2nd cars for well-to-do, home-owning households...

Hey, I resemble that remark!
TT

Good for you! :lol:

 

[thankyouOB]

I've said many times here that until affordable BEV range increases considerably (with the accompanying price drop), they will remain primarily urban/commute 2nd cars for well-to-do, home-owning households...

Hey, I resemble that remark!
TT

there must be tens of millions in this market. two-car garages within 40 miles of an employment center in America are very common.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

That does not describe me at all. We barely qualify as middle income and my Leaf is my primary source of transportation

GRA's point is valid in that the combination of 1/3rd of the range with the waiting time of over 3 times to fill up over an ICE car, even using a QC, makes it impractical to do long trips for many. That does not have tobe stated many times over, as it is well understood.

He overlooks the fact that the current version of Leaf is meant more as a commute/errand car with occasional long distance trips, provided there is enough time and QCs on the way. I am sure there are millions who fit that profile.

Nah, I don't overlook it, I'm well aware of it. Indeed, I've said many times here that until affordable BEV range increases considerably (with the accompanying price drop), they will remain primarily urban/commute 2nd cars for well-to-do, home-owning households, the definition of a niche vehicle. If you happen to fall within that niche, good for you! I can only hope that the next generation will meet my needs.

 

[thankyouOB]

this is not meant as a personal challenge, but middle income means what?
50?
70?
100?
Just trying to figure out what you are saying.
from financial aid for college student site:
Even the US Census Bureau doesn't have an official definition of middle income, although they tend to use the middle quintile, which is families with annual incomes between about $40,000 and $65,000. In some cases they've expanded it to include the fourth quintile, yielding a range of $40,000 to $95,000. Sometimes the range includes the second, middle and fourth quintiles, yielding an income band of $25,000 to $99,000. A lot depends on who is doing the asking and what point they are trying to make.

http://www.finaid.org/educators/middleincome.phtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[lpickup]

this is not meant as a personal challenge, but middle income means what?

Rather than try to pin down exactly what middle income and the other terms really mean (because really he could've said anything), I like to approach the statement like this:
Just take a look around neighborhoods and highways and observe the following:
1) How many households appear to have 2 or more cars with garages or what would appear to be suitable facilities for an EVSE?
2) How many cars on the highway that are clearly not being used for purposes outside of the LEAF's capabilities (i.e. a pickup truck hauling a trailer) that would appear to be in a similar price range (or more) to the LEAF (and in my opinion you could probably extend that price range downwards quite a bit due to fuel savings)?

and the other criteria that is a little harder to observe directly, but still important:

3) How many cars have driving patterns that fit within the range of the LEAF?

For #3, you can't really observe first-hand, but knowledge of commuting patterns does help. For example in my area, a large percentage of corporate offices are located either in a central research park, or in one of the two downtown districts in the area. If I draw a 25 mile radius around these areas, I can get a pretty good idea of how much area would be likely well served for commuting purposes even if no charging stations were available at the workplace.

And okay, there are the following caveats:

- Not everyone has a driving pattern that involves driving to work, parking the car for 8 hours and then driving home. But I think most do.
- Not every area has such a centralized area where most employers are concentrated, but in most medium to large sized cities, I think this is the case and people generally live within that distance of their workplaces. And this covers a large percentage of the population of the US.
- I obviously can't infer how many of those drivers take 300 mile trips every other weekend AND only have one car (again, I would think this is an atypical case).

The other issue with my methodology is that yes, as a LEAF owner than may potentially fit into a certain socioeconomic category that made me more likely to buy a LEAF, perhaps my observations are going to be skewed towards similar people because I live in a certain part of my area. However, unlike the opposite case where maybe I live in an urban area where most people are single-car renters and maybe I don't have the means or opportunity to leave my area, I am very mobile and do drive around extensively and directly observe a very large portion of that 157 sq mile circle covering a fairly wide swath of different socioeconomic areas.

Therefore, even with all those caveats, I really think the potential market is HUGE. Not as in BEVs will replace every car out there huge...I know they won't. But certainly large enough that if there weren't any of the perceived (but not factual) impediments, and if there were more options in the BEV market (i.e. maybe people like to buy American, or maybe they absolutely need a yellow car, or whatever other non-EV reasons there are out there for not buying a Nissan LEAF or other BEV), then I would be extremely hard pressed to declare it a niche market. To me niche means at best you're only going to get about 5% market share and that's it. As I drive around and look at different neighborhoods and the vehicles that are parked outside them, I really have to say that I see no reason that the cost of the LEAF and the need for charging facilities is in any way holding up further market penetration. Rather, I really do think that it's perceived shortcomings rather than actual ones.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

this is not meant as a personal challenge, but middle income means what?
50?
70?
100?
Just trying to figure out what you are saying.
from financial aid for college student site:
Even the US Census Bureau doesn't have an official definition of middle income, although they tend to use the middle quintile, which is families with annual incomes between about $40,000 and $65,000. In some cases they've expanded it to include the fourth quintile, yielding a range of $40,000 to $95,000. Sometimes the range includes the second, middle and fourth quintiles, yielding an income band of $25,000 to $99,000. A lot depends on who is doing the asking and what point they are trying to make.

http://www.finaid.org/educators/middleincome.phtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

my definition of middle income is HIGHLY DEPENDENT on location. this BS $40,000-95,000 crap is EXACTLY that; crap.

what is middle income in Nebraska? $40,000 or Manhattan? $95,000

i live in Puget Sound WA and i am pretty sure we are above the national average for cost of living and i am below the medium household income for our area.

now, i did change jobs so hopefully that will change. we shall see

 

[GRA]

this is not meant as a personal challenge, but middle income means what?

Rather than try to pin down exactly what middle income and the other terms really mean (because really he could've said anything), I like to approach the statement like this:
Just take a look around neighborhoods and highways and observe the following:
1) How many households appear to have 2 or more cars with garages or what would appear to be suitable facilities for an EVSE?
2) How many cars on the highway that are clearly not being used for purposes outside of the LEAF's capabilities (i.e. a pickup truck hauling a trailer) that would appear to be in a similar price range (or more) to the LEAF (and in my opinion you could probably extend that price range downwards quite a bit due to fuel savings)?

and the other criteria that is a little harder to observe directly, but still important:

3) How many cars have driving patterns that fit within the range of the LEAF?

For #3, you can't really observe first-hand, but knowledge of commuting patterns does help. For example in my area, a large percentage of corporate offices are located either in a central research park, or in one of the two downtown districts in the area. If I draw a 25 mile radius around these areas, I can get a pretty good idea of how much area would be likely well served for commuting purposes even if no charging stations were available at the workplace.

And okay, there are the following caveats:

- Not everyone has a driving pattern that involves driving to work, parking the car for 8 hours and then driving home. But I think most do.
- Not every area has such a centralized area where most employers are concentrated, but in most medium to large sized cities, I think this is the case and people generally live within that distance of their workplaces. And this covers a large percentage of the population of the US.
- I obviously can't infer how many of those drivers take 300 mile trips every other weekend AND only have one car (again, I would think this is an atypical case).

The other issue with my methodology is that yes, as a LEAF owner than may potentially fit into a certain socioeconomic category that made me more likely to buy a LEAF, perhaps my observations are going to be skewed towards similar people because I live in a certain part of my area. However, unlike the opposite case where maybe I live in an urban area where most people are single-car renters and maybe I don't have the means or opportunity to leave my area, I am very mobile and do drive around extensively and directly observe a very large portion of that 157 sq mile circle covering a fairly wide swath of different socioeconomic areas.

Therefore, even with all those caveats, I really think the potential market is HUGE. Not as in BEVs will replace every car out there huge...I know they won't. But certainly large enough that if there weren't any of the perceived (but not factual) impediments, and if there were more options in the BEV market (i.e. maybe people like to buy American, or maybe they absolutely need a yellow car, or whatever other non-EV reasons there are out there for not buying a Nissan LEAF or other BEV), then I would be extremely hard pressed to declare it a niche market. To me niche means at best you're only going to get about 5% market share and that's it. As I drive around and look at different neighborhoods and the vehicles that are parked outside them, I really have to say that I see no reason that the cost of the LEAF and the need for charging facilities is in any way holding up further market penetration. Rather, I really do think that it's perceived shortcomings rather than actual ones.

Not that I disagree with your main points, but note that 5% is a higher market share than HEVs have ever reached in the U.S., and they benefit by requiring zero change in the owner's behavior as well as having lower sticker prices. Even so, Prius sales didn't take off in California until the state instituted the single-occupant HOV-lane stickers, and the Prius was selling far better by that time than any BEV has to date, even though the latter have benefited from HOV stickers from the start.

So, while I agree that there's a big perception problem and the potential market is very large, this is a case where perception is destiny. Until you can change that or the simple economics change (i.e. $6-10/gal. gas and/or $10-15k BEVs), the potential market is likely to remain just that.

 

[lpickup]

So, while I agree that there's a big perception problem and the potential market is very large, this is a case where perception is destiny. Until you can change that or the simple economics change (i.e. $6-10/gal. gas and/or $10-15k BEVs), the potential market is likely to remain just that.

Absolutely agree on that point. That's why I try so hard to make sure the perception problem is addressed by illustrating the facts and disproving the myths.

 

[thankyouOB]

So, while I agree that there's a big perception problem and the potential market is very large, this is a case where perception is destiny. Until you can change that or the simple economics change (i.e. $6-10/gal. gas and/or $10-15k BEVs), the potential market is likely to remain just that.

this is just a piece of the above long entry. I avoid copying it all...

my conclusion, in brief, is that the great recession, bigtime, is left totally out of your sales comparisons between the climate for EVs and Leaf today, versus Prius, etc. in the boom years.

try selling cars when unemployment and job insecurity is so high, and even the working people have seen their life savings and home values dwindle, not to mention the new lows in their credit ratings due to missed payments or lost wages.

 

[daggad]

In Norway the price of gasoline is today in excess of usd 12,- pr gallon, and we are a oil producing country as well. And this is what gasoline should cost in USA too.
Also, the incentives for EV's are fantastic: No import taxes, no 25% MVA, usd 70,-/year road tax (as opposed too usd 475,-) , free passing on toll road, free parking, free ferrie rides.

We are a little less then 5 mill people and Leaf no 1000 is now sold after introduction in november 2011. The 10'th best selling car in Norway. And EV's have a 2,5 % markedshare, the same as hybrids.
The price of the car over here is approx USD 47000,-, the same as a regular VW Golf.

Make these cars economical competitive and they will sell. I think you who are Leaf owners in USA today with the steep price for this care compared to the fossile compitition are true pioneers and earn my honest respect !

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

So, while I agree that there's a big perception problem and the potential market is very large, this is a case where perception is destiny. Until you can change that or the simple economics change (i.e. $6-10/gal. gas and/or $10-15k BEVs), the potential market is likely to remain just that.

i am not seeing that (i am a car salesman) there is a HUGE demand to get into a more economical car. one that gets better gas mileage than their current vehicle. most dont need but basic transportation for work, errands, etc.

but many simply cannot get a decent loan to purchase. the average new car price for March 2012 was $29,312.47 (this figure is not a guess) which is up more than $2,000 over the past 3 years. But new cars is only 20% of the segment.

used cars are where the problem lies. Now my figures on this are local and below the national average but more than 70% of the used car market is hampered by people who had bad credit.

without too many details, had a couple come in with combined gross income of over $!0,000 a month. both had been laid off and got behind financially. looking to get a more economical car for commuting AND to rebuild their credit which had dropped below 500.

got them into a car but at 18% interest. they had to increase their down payment to avoid a HUGE loan fee. One had been back to work a year, the other a month. they were lucky they had enough cash to do it.

but therein lies the problem. if your credit is trashed you really have no way to rebuild it unless you have some cash. now if you have a job, you can get a loan but it would have cost an additional $1500 on a $13,000 car just for the loan fee.

have had a TON of people wanting to trade up and not to EVs or 50 mpg hybrids. they want to go from their Escalade to a 22/32 MPG HHR. but the Escalade is nearly worthless and they cant put $1000 down so they are looking at a loan fee probably $1000 to borrow 7-8,000.

its pathetic and its not really the customer's fault. the financial institutions made mistakes with too lax credit and have greatly over adjusted their policies and a huge chunk of the middle class got screwed.

P.S. Bravo to Citibank Shareholders for rejecting Executive Pay Packages as being to high!

 

[tps]

I think you who are Leaf owners in USA today with the steep price for this care compared to the fossile compitition are true pioneers and earn my honest respect !

I'm not rich, but I don't mind paying a little extra to get something that makes me happy. I really love driving the LEAF; I'm just glad I get to have that wonderful experience every day, now. After a bit more than 2 months with the LEAF, I think it's starting to sink in that I haven't gone to the gas station for a long time. I almost forget what a gas station is.

 

[thankyouOB]

I think you who are Leaf owners in USA today with the steep price for this care compared to the fossile compitition are true pioneers and earn my honest respect !

I'm not rich, but I don't mind paying a little extra to get something that makes me happy. I really love driving the LEAF; I'm just glad I get to have that wonderful experience every day, now. After a bit more than 2 months with the LEAF, I think it's starting to sink in that I haven't gone to the gas station for a long time. I almost forget what a gas station is.

the whole deal gets richer at a year in, and when you look at your credit card statements doing your taxes, you will surely go: WOW!

What also sets in is how convenient it is to fill up overnight or on your doorstep, and never have to carve out time from your day to stop and get gas.

all around.

 

[GRA]

So, while I agree that there's a big perception problem and the potential market is very large, this is a case where perception is destiny. Until you can change that or the simple economics change (i.e. $6-10/gal. gas and/or $10-15k BEVs), the potential market is likely to remain just that.

this is just a piece of the above long entry. I avoid copying it all...

my conclusion, in brief, is that the great recession, bigtime, is left totally out of your sales comparisons between the climate for EVs and Leaf today, versus Prius, etc. in the boom years.

try selling cars when unemployment and job insecurity is so high, and even the working people have seen their life savings and home values dwindle, not to mention the new lows in their credit ratings due to missed payments or lost wages.

I am certainly aware of the effects of the recession (perhaps more directly than you), but note that auto sales increased considerably last year, from ~11m to about 12.8 million, and are apparently on track to increase again this year. And while the economy was booming when the Prius' sales took off, gas was also dirt cheap lessening any incentive to get a fuel-efficient car (and giving us hordes of Expeditions, Durangos et al, which are now, happily, being led off to the scrapyard).

I did read an article in the WSJ yesterday that mentioned that the average new car sold in March got something over 24 mpg (don't remember the exact figure), up from 20.8 four years ago, so people are responding to gas prices (and the cars are just getting more fuel efficient in general).