NYT says EV not worth it. Leaf = Versa

[GRA]

I see nothing in this article but a simple statement of fact, that very few of the most fuel-efficient cars make sense for the typical buyer when judged purely in economic terms. That many people buy cars for reasons other than purely economic is acknowledged in the article, so I fail to see what the hubbub is about.

 

[thankyouOB]

wow, is the tide turning for EV's or what... this is the first time I've seen the comments after one of these articles be so overwhelmingly well spoken! the author is getting a pounding!

Our ranks are growing!!!

I do realize this article is about more than just EV's but still, it's great to see!

nicely put. i might give him a call and see what he is thinking now.

 

[thankyouOB]

I see nothing in this article but a simple statement of fact, that very few of the most fuel-efficient cars make sense for the typical buyer when judged purely in economic terms. That many people buy cars for reasons other than purely economic is acknowledged in the article, so I fail to see what the hubbub is about.

go back to sleep, then.

 

[mkjayakumar]

My comment never got published:


It is very clear that this author has not done his home work and this borders on irresponsible journalism. The return on an EV car, such the LEAF - with the federal tax rebate and even ignoring the state rebates if any - are substantial. Let us do some simple math , can we ? :

I bought the base Leaf model, at MSRP for $24.5K (MSRP 32K minus $7.5K Federal tax rebate) . To me the way the car drives - so smooth and quiet, it will put some of the luxury cars to shame. I am not sure which ICE car I should be comparing it to.

Now coming to the savings part. Before the Leaf I drove for around $1500 miles a month on an ICE car that gave $23 miles to a gallon. That comes to around 66 gallons a month or at $3.80 per gallon that would be close to $250. The same driving now with the Leaf costs me around $40 max. Yes.. you read that right, it costs no more than $40 to drive that much and not to mention no more of those expensive oil/filter changes and other servicing costs.

So my savings are easily close to $200+ per month or close to $2500 per year. In two years I will be saving around $5000 just in gas alone, not to mention another $500 on servicing. NOW IS THAT NOT A GOOD RETURN ?

And oh, did I mention how my Leaf drives so smooth and absolutely quiet ?

It is disappointing that NYT would publish such an irresponsible article.

Now there are other genuine issues around EV cars such as limited range and lack of charging infrastructure, but poor savings/returns is not one of them, especially for a car like the Leaf that a buyer can get for under $30K.

 

[Hedge74]

My comment never got published:


It is very clear that this author has not done his home work and this borders on irresponsible journalism. The return on an EV car, such the LEAF - with the federal tax rebate and even ignoring the state rebates if any - are substantial. Let us do some simple math , can we ? :

I bought the base Leaf model, at MSRP for $24.5K (MSRP 32K minus $7.5K Federal tax rebate) . To me the way the car drives - so smooth and quiet, it will put some of the luxury cars to shame. I am not sure which ICE car I should be comparing it to.

Now coming to the savings part. Before the Leaf I drove for around $1500 miles a month on an ICE car that gave $23 miles to a gallon. That comes to around 66 gallons a month or at $3.80 per gallon that would be close to $250. The same driving now with the Leaf costs me around $40 max. Yes.. you read that right, it costs no more than $40 to drive that much and not to mention no more of those expensive oil/filter changes and other servicing costs.

So my savings are easily close to $200+ per month or close to $2500 per year. In two years I will be saving around $5000 just in gas alone, not to mention another $500 on servicing. NOW IS THAT NOT A GOOD RETURN ?

And oh, did I mention how my Leaf drives so smooth and absolutely quiet ?

It is disappointing that NYT would publish such an irresponsible article.

Now there are other genuine issues around EV cars such as limited range and lack of charging infrastructure, but poor savings/returns is not one of them, especially for a car like the Leaf that a buyer can get for under $30K.

Strange, it must be, that I read this exact comment on the article.


Hedge

 

[mkjayakumar]

Yes that was mine. I sent it again and removed references to "irreponsibile journalism" and it got published in two minutes..

 

[lenny]

does the versa have:
-smart tire gauges that talk to you when you fill

I never knew the LEAF did this. Very cool

Neither did I. Guess I should have paid more attention to the owner's manual Here's the youtube video for those lazy like me.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBZhsUvuI0M" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Train]

I see nothing in this article but a simple statement of fact, that very few of the most fuel-efficient cars make sense for the typical buyer when judged purely in economic terms. That many people buy cars for reasons other than purely economic is acknowledged in the article, so I fail to see what the hubbub is about.

I agree. Such thin skin...

 

[GRA]

My comment never got published:


It is very clear that this author has not done his home work and this borders on irresponsible journalism. The return on an EV car, such the LEAF - with the federal tax rebate and even ignoring the state rebates if any - are substantial. Let us do some simple math , can we ? :

I bought the base Leaf model, at MSRP for $24.5K (MSRP 32K minus $7.5K Federal tax rebate) . To me the way the car drives - so smooth and quiet, it will put some of the luxury cars to shame. I am not sure which ICE car I should be comparing it to.

Now coming to the savings part. Before the Leaf I drove for around $1500 miles a month on an ICE car that gave $23 miles to a gallon. That comes to around 66 gallons a month or at $3.80 per gallon that would be close to $250. The same driving now with the Leaf costs me around $40 max. Yes.. you read that right, it costs no more than $40 to drive that much and not to mention no more of those expensive oil/filter changes and other servicing costs.

So my savings are easily close to $200+ per month or close to $2500 per year. In two years I will be saving around $5000 just in gas alone, not to mention another $500 on servicing. NOW IS THAT NOT A GOOD RETURN ?

And oh, did I mention how my Leaf drives so smooth and absolutely quiet ?

It is disappointing that NYT would publish such an irresponsible article.

Now there are other genuine issues around EV cars such as limited range and lack of charging infrastructure, but poor savings/returns is not one of them, especially for a car like the Leaf that a buyer can get for under $30K.

Now figure your payback period without any subsidies. As I mentioned in another thread, given big enough government subsidies we could all be driving Bugatti Veyrons for a personal outlay of $20k, but that's hardly a rational way to compare value. Not everyone will qualify (or have access to) subsidies, but more important, if the car can only be economically justified WITH subsidies as is typically the case for a new car buyer (6 year turnover, up from 4.5 years prior to the Great Recession), what happens when the subsidies go away (as they might soon depending on how the election goes).

After all, with the typical Leaf buyer having a median family income of (depending on the source) $130k-140k, while the median family income of all Americans is just under $50k, what we have is a case of people who can't afford the car subsidizing the people who can. How long do you think that will be politically acceptable?

Now, let's have a poll, restricted to those of you who've actually bought a Leaf, a Volt, or i:

Would you have bought/leased any of these cars without any subsidies on it, the EVSE, and/or perks such as HOV access, free parking, free charging or what have you? If so, what do you calculate your payback period would be?

 

[EvansvilleLeaf]

My comment never got published:


It is very clear that this author has not done his home work and this borders on irresponsible journalism. The return on an EV car, such the LEAF - with the federal tax rebate and even ignoring the state rebates if any - are substantial. Let us do some simple math , can we ? :

I bought the base Leaf model, at MSRP for $24.5K (MSRP 32K minus $7.5K Federal tax rebate) . To me the way the car drives - so smooth and quiet, it will put some of the luxury cars to shame. I am not sure which ICE car I should be comparing it to.

Now coming to the savings part. Before the Leaf I drove for around $1500 miles a month on an ICE car that gave $23 miles to a gallon. That comes to around 66 gallons a month or at $3.80 per gallon that would be close to $250. The same driving now with the Leaf costs me around $40 max. Yes.. you read that right, it costs no more than $40 to drive that much and not to mention no more of those expensive oil/filter changes and other servicing costs.

So my savings are easily close to $200+ per month or close to $2500 per year. In two years I will be saving around $5000 just in gas alone, not to mention another $500 on servicing. NOW IS THAT NOT A GOOD RETURN ?

And oh, did I mention how my Leaf drives so smooth and absolutely quiet ?

It is disappointing that NYT would publish such an irresponsible article.

Now there are other genuine issues around EV cars such as limited range and lack of charging infrastructure, but poor savings/returns is not one of them, especially for a car like the Leaf that a buyer can get for under $30K.

Now figure your payback period without any subsidies. As I mentioned in another thread, given big enough government subsidies we could all be driving Bugatti Veyrons for a personal outlay of $20k, but that's hardly a rational way to compare value. Not everyone will qualify (or have access to) subsidies, but more important, if the car can only be economically justified WITH subsidies as is typically the case for a new car buyer (6 year turnover, up from 4.5 years prior to the Great Recession), what happens when the subsidies go away (as they might soon depending on how the election goes).

After all, with the typical Leaf buyer having a median family income of (depending on the source) $130k-140k, while the median family income of all Americans is just under $50k, what we have is a case of people who can't afford the car subsidizing the people who can. How long do you think that will be politically acceptable?

Now, let's have a poll, restricted to those of you who've actually bought a Leaf, a Volt, or i:

Would you have bought/leased any of these cars without any subsidies on it, the EVSE, and/or perks such as HOV access, free parking, free charging or what have you? If so, what do you calculate your payback period would be?

Payback? What payback? What the hell does payback have to do with nigh-universally depreciating functional goods? Why does this obsession only get grafted onto EVs? Does a Camry pay back? An Avalon? A Lexus? If our criteria for cars were financial only a lunatic would ever buy anything but well-used Kias and Daewoos. Never see payback mentioned on other cars.

 

[thankyouOB]

Payback? What payback? What the hell does payback have to do with nigh-universally depreciating functional goods? Why does this obsession only get grafted onto EVs? Does a Camry pay back? An Avalon? A Lexus? If our criteria for cars were financial only a lunatic would ever buy anything but well-used Kias and Daewoos. Never see payback mentioned on other cars.yes, and what is all this groaning and moaning over subsidies.
Yes, yes.
and what is all this moaning and groaning about subsidies?
the government does it all the time. it has made a rational choice (Bush started it) to offer rebates for the purchase of zev cars.
For other reasons, Uncle Sam, subsidized SUVs and large-size trucks through tax incentives for years.
it subsidizes ethanol and has the oil depletion allowance. it provides tax credits for education and health care and solar energy and insulating your home.

this is the real world. that poll idea is a red herring. We bought when we bought in the world that existed when we bought the Leaf.
woulda coulda shoulda...
no one will ever know.

 

[GRA]

Payback? What payback? What the hell does payback have to do with nigh-universally depreciating functional goods? Why does this obsession only get grafted onto EVs? Does a Camry pay back? An Avalon? A Lexus? If our criteria for cars were financial only a lunatic would ever buy anything but well-used Kias and Daewoos. Never see payback mentioned on other cars.yes, and what is all this groaning and moaning over subsidies.
Yes, yes.
and what is all this moaning and groaning about subsidies?
the government does it all the time. it has made a rational choice (Bush started it) to offer rebates for the purchase of zev cars.
For other reasons, Uncle Sam, subsidized SUVs and large-size trucks through tax incentives for years.
it subsidizes ethanol and has the oil depletion allowance. it provides tax credits for education and health care and solar energy and insulating your home.

this is the real world. that poll idea is a red herring. We bought when we bought in the world that existed when we bought the Leaf.
woulda coulda shoulda...
no one will ever know.

Hardly a red herring, when the NYT is saying that for most people the extra upfront cost of a Leaf doesn't make sense, for _anyone who's thinking of buying a car_. Now here we have a group which is far more supportive of the technology (i.e. valuing it more highly) than mainstream buyers, and who have already made that decision. Now, if the poll shows that only a small minority of this group would be willing to buy the car without subsidies and perks, why on earth would anyone project that mainstream buyers (who mostly don't care about the technology or environmental issues) would be willing to pony up more money up front?

So let's stop all the jinking and juking, and just answer the very simple questions I posed.

Here, I'll help:

1. Yes/No

2. __ years

 

[lpickup]

Not everyone will qualify (or have access to) subsidies

Untrue. If they don't qualify for the tax credit, they can lease at a price that includes the credit and then buy out the lease.

what happens when the subsidies go away (as they might soon depending on how the election goes).

By then, the technology will have matured past the early life cycle phase and costs should be more competitive with the incumbent technology. And don't hold your breath on the subsidies going away just because a different guy may or may not be sitting in the White House. House bill 3768 doesn't appear to be going anywhere fast and I don't think it's because Obama is actively fighting it.

After all, with the typical Leaf buyer having a median family income of (depending on the source) $130k-140k, while the median family income of all Americans is just under $50k, what we have is a case of people who can't afford the car subsidizing the people who can.

I won't go into whether someone earning $50k can afford a car like the LEAF since I'm not wearing those shoes, but I will say that your logic is flawed. Just because the median family income of LEAF buyers is $130K doesn't mean you HAVE to earn that much to buy one.

You may not be in favor of the tax credit, but it was democratically instituted (by a Republican by the way) as an incentive to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. In my mind, and in the mind of our elected leaders, that is valid enough reason to offer it.

Now, let's have a poll, restricted to those of you who've actually bought a Leaf, a Volt, or i:

Would you have bought/leased any of these cars without any subsidies on it, the EVSE, and/or perks such as HOV access, free parking, free charging or what have you? If so, what do you calculate your payback period would be?

Okay, I'll answer your poll with one caveat. If you can assume that one subsidy doesn't exist, I'll assume that oil subsidies don't and the price of gas hasn't been kept artificially low.

So:

1) Yes. In fact the ONLY perk I got was the federal tax credit. No state credit, HOV, parking, ... perks for me.
2) With the subsidies, I've calculated my payback period to be around 2 years at gas prices of $3.90. Without the subsidies (and gas at twice that amount: $7.80) my payback period would be 25 months.

This is based on my March driving: 1750 miles; 437kWh (from the wall); $44.96 electricity cost; cost of COMPARABLE car that I quoted with comparable features: $24,000 compared to my LEAF at $30,000 (with tax credit) or $37,500 (without tax credit) getting 24mpg combined. Monthly savings at that mpg is around $250 at $3.90/gallon, or $548 at $7.80.

 

[Stoaty]

After all, with the typical Leaf buyer having a median family income of (depending on the source) $130k-140k, while the median family income of all Americans is just under $50k, what we have is a case of people who can't afford the car subsidizing the people who can. How long do you think that will be politically acceptable?

Ridiculous argument. The purpose of the subsidy is not to save wealthy people money (although that may happen in the process), it is to make EV more attractive and more accessible, thus speeding up the adoption of EV. I would say it is definitely doing that. In California (with the original $5,000 rebate), you turn a $33,000 vehicle (my 2011 SV) into a $20,500 vehicle. Buying one is a no brainer. Now California has decreased the rebate to $2500 so more people will be able to participate (ran out of funds at the $5,000 rebate level). As more vehicles are out there, people see them, get interested in them, and buy them when they realize what a great deal they are getting. As volume ramps up and battery prices come down (plus R&D is paid for at some point), the price goes down so eventually no subsidy is needed for the EV to be cost competitive.

The real question is why we are still subsidizing mature industries like nuclear and oil/gas. They have had the benefit of subsidies for years. Why subsidize something that is not in the best interest of society over the long term? If these mature industries can't compete economically at this point, why hide the true cost using subsidies? For nuclear, the subsidy is the cap on liability.

PS To answer your question, I can afford the Leaf with or without subsidies. Would I have bought one for $12,500 more? I am not sure, but likely I would have waited a bit to see how the vehicles were performing, i.e., I would have been slower to purchase the Leaf. So in my case the subsidy had the intended effect--I jumped in right away (and am I glad I did!!! )

 

[thankyouOB]

50k income
married filing jointly standard deduction 12k
tax on remainder, tables 38k = about 1k.
not counting deductions for kids.
not sure we are taking any money from folks earning 50k.

 

[kubel]

My current car is a 2006 Crown Victoria Police Interceptor. If I take into consideration how much I paid for it, minus residual value after 39 more months, and then divide that by 39 and add it to my monthly fuel cost, I'm looking at roughly $470/mo for my gas car. The LEAF (factoring in tax, down payment, lease payment, fees due at signing, and energy use) is just a bit cheaper, but any savings are gobbled up by higher insurance costs (it is a new car, after all).

But if my used gas car can cost the same as a new electric car, it puts me back at zero. Which reminds me of Nissan's Value of Zero commercial.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhSqI77aLHU[/youtube]

Is money the only thing people look at in a car? If so, why isn't everyone driving Elantras, Fiestas, and Versas? In fact, why are people even considering new cars at all? We know that even the cheapest new car is less economical than a used car. The reason we all don't drive the same car or we all don't drive new cars isn't because our math sucks. It's because we all place different values on cars. Some of us are willing to spend more for what we really want. It seems NYT didn't take this into account.

What is the value of zero?

Zero...
-guarantees that I won't give a penny to the oil industry.
-rids myself of any personal responsibility for foreign wars of aggression protecting oil interests. The very same oil I'm addicted to.
-lets me brag about peaceful domestic energy when friends and coworkers are complaining about gas prices.
-offers the awesomeness of electric propulsion- instant torque, quiet and peaceful driving.
-ACTUALLY HAS CRUISE CONTROL, heated seats, heated steering wheel, the equivalent of remote start, and even carpet for that matter. My car has none of those things.

 

[thankyouOB]

what Kubel said, but i wonder if someone sees a difference between texas oil men and saudi oil men.
http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-18563_162-691413.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

see the oil men share some love.

 

[SanDust]

So let's stop all the jinking and juking, and just answer the very simple questions I posed.

Here, I'll help:

1. Yes/No

2. __ years

Different answers depending on whether you remove the subsidies for gas. Without subsidies gas would be a minimum of $7/gallon, probably $9/gallon. Basic math suggests that if you remove something from one side of the equation you need to remove it from the other.

 

[SkiTundra]

Different answers depending on whether you remove the subsidies for gas. Without subsidies gas would be a minimum of $7/gallon, probably $9/gallon. Basic math suggests that if you remove something from one side of the equation you need to remove it from the other.

Some Republicans have spouted a bunch of hyperbole that prices would skyrocket if the subsidies are removed, but I've not seen anyone knowledgeable say that removing the subsidies would raise gas in the U.S. by more than about a nickel a gallon. Obama admin says it would be about a penny per gallon.

Much higher prices outside the U.S. are largely due to much higher fuel taxes than in the U.S. (and minimally to other factors like higher xport costs, etc.), not lack of subsidies.

As to the poll... I would not pay $32k for a Leaf, 2012 or 2013. I plan to pay about $25k. On the flip side, once mfr'g in Smyrna begins rolling smoothly, what could Nissan sell the car for if the subsidies go away? In the future will we see 'fees' from the PCA for each Leaf battery that is discarded or recycled? Will Elec utilities need to raise rates if enough people in a neighborhood have them requiring new power generation and distro?

 

[thankyouOB]

A NYT columnist tries to explain the right-wing EV bashing:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/07/opinion/nocera-the-right-flames-the-volt.html?hp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A reporter for Fox News had been prowling the auto show, asking nasty questions about the Volt. For months, the conservative propaganda machine — including Rush Limbaugh, Bill O’Reilly, and Neil Cavuto, the Fox News business editor — had been mocking the Volt, and linking it to President Obama, who has long touted the promise of electric cars. Cavuto, who has called the Volt “roller skates with a plug,” was rumored to be going on the air that very night with yet another Volt hatchet job.

What is the connection between President Obama and the Volt? There is none. The car was the brainchild of Bob Lutz, a legendary auto executive who is about as liberal as the Koch brothers. The tax credit — which is part of the reason conservatives hate the car — became law during the Bush administration.

“It’s nuts,” said Lutz, when I spoke to him earlier in the week. “This is a significant achievement in the auto industry. There are so many legitimate things to criticize Obama about. It is inexplicable that the right would feel the need to tell lies about the Volt to attack the president.”

....Not to worry, though. With seven months to go before the election, Cavuto and his Fox News brethren will have plenty of opportunities to denigrate an innovative car, employing American technology and creating American jobs, in order to besmirch a president who had nothing to do with it.

It is, after all, what they do.