Nuke Crisis : Level 7 on overall impact

[DaveinOlyWA]

The tolerance window is probably 30-90 mind but as soon as water hits those rods the window will most likely drop to only a few minutes.
The only real way to "fix" this a deluge of water sufficent enoughto lower the heat to boiling. This will kill everyone within probaly 20 mile radius.


As I said before, the only question here is how big the danger zone will be when this is said and done.

There will not be anyone living within 50 miles of the plant for centuries.
What we want is to limit the zone to 50 miles
But that wont happen if they can't cool the cores down within the next day or two.

We are quite frankly very very close to requiring evacuation of the largest population center in The world

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Obama to make an announcement at 3:30 PM Eastern on the Japan situation.

apparently the US has already sent charter planes to evacuate all US military dependents from all bases including Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan which is 1000 miles away. we are talking 40,000 people

 

[cdub]

The tolerance window is probably 30-90 mind but as soon as water hits those rods the window will most likely drop to only a few minutes.
The only real way to "fix" this a deluge of water sufficent enoughto lower the heat to boiling. This will kill everyone within probaly 20 mile radius.


As I said before, the only question here is how big the danger zone will be when this is said and done.

There will not be anyone living within 50 miles of the plant for centuries.
What we want is to limit the zone to 50 miles
But that wont happen if they can't cool the cores down within the next day or two.

We are quite frankly very very close to requiring evacuation of the largest population center in The world

Are there any articles backing any of these claims up?

 

[LakeLeaf]

The only real way to "fix" this a deluge of water sufficent enough to lower the heat to boiling. This will kill everyone within probaly 20 mile radius.

I'm a little surprised there hasn't been more discussion about trying to drop or pump sand with graphite, boron, and other radiation absorbing materials into the rod pools and then try to fill them with water in quick succession. This might help cut down on the radioactive steam released. At least one of the rod pools is visible from above. You'd probably want to put the sand in small bags so it doesn't get scattered in the wind during a drop. They did something similar at Chernobyl to get radiation absorbing material on the reactor core before they dumped the concrete on it.

Of course, right now it appears they are unable to figure out how to get close enough to even shoot water from 100's of yards away.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

The only real way to "fix" this a deluge of water sufficent enough to lower the heat to boiling. This will kill everyone within probaly 20 mile radius.

I'm a little surprised there hasn't been more discussion about trying to drop or pump sand with graphite, boron, and other radiation absorbing materials into the rod pools and then try to fill them with water in quick succession. This might help cut down on the radioactive steam released. At least one of the rod pools is visible from above. You'd probably want to put the sand in small bags so it doesn't get scattered in the wind during a drop. They did something similar at Chernobyl to get radiation absorbing material on the reactor core before they dumped the concrete on it.

Of course, right now it appears they are unable to figure out how to get close enough to even shoot water from 100's of yards away.

that question is easy. there is no substance on Earth that can absorb more energy than water.

 

[AndyH]

Obama to make an announcement at 3:30 PM Eastern on the Japan situation.

apparently the US has already sent charter planes to evacuate all US military dependents from all bases including Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan which is 1000 miles away. we are talking 40,000 people

The evacuations are authorized and voluntary so far.

http://www.pacaf.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123247202

3/17/2011 - WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Tonight, the Department of State has authorized the voluntary departure (including relocation of safe areas within Japan) for family members and dependents of U.S. government officials who wish to leave Northeast Japan.

The U.S. government is also working to facilitate the departure of private American citizens from the affected areas (50 mile radius of the Fukushima reactor) and a Travel Warning containing detailed information has been issued and is available at http://www.travel.state.gov <http://www.travel.state.gov/>

U.S. forces remain in Japan and the U.S. has full capability to fulfill our alliance commitments to defend Japan and maintain peace and security in the region. The Department of Defense will implement the Dept. of State-approved voluntary departure for eligible DoD dependents. As with State Dept. dependents, these measures are temporary, and dependents will return when the situation is resolved. Eligible DoD dependents will be given travel instructions by their local commands.

Direct queries on this announcement to the Dept. of State. We will update you on DoD plans in the coming days.

Misawa is closest. Yokota is south near Tokyo:

Misawa AB (USAF/USN) Evac update:
http://www.misawa.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123247236

3/17/2011 - MISAWA AIR BASE, Japan -- U.S. Air Force Col. Michael Rothstein, 35th Fighter Wing commander and U.S. Navy Capt. James Haugen, Naval Air Facility Misawa commanding officer, addressed the Misawa community in an American Forces Network broadcast March 17.

In the broadcast, Colonel Rothstein informed the base that the U.S. Department of State and the Defense Department has authorized voluntary departure of government and military family members from Japan. Exact details of the voluntary departure process from Misawa are being ironed out at this time.

Colonel Rothstein also reassured the base community concerning fears about the power plant near Fukushima, Japan. Wing agencies are diligently working to sample air qualities and have assured him that there has been no significant change and that there probably will not be one, he stated.

"I want to make this clear, Misawa is in no immediate danger," Colonel Rothstein said. "The reactors in Fukushima, even if the worst scenario was to happen, will not put Misawa in danger and we will continue with our humanitarian relief efforts in the area."

The colonel also stressed that our Airmen and sister-services further South near Tokyo, are at no great risk either.

However, the message of voluntary departure and servicemember safety were not the only thing on these two commanders' minds; they also spoke of the excellent job the base has been doing to assist in relief efforts.

"It's been so inspiring to see the team effort that has gone out to help rebuild the community," said Captain Haugen. "I was able to see Sailors and Airmen working side-by-side with the City of Misawa down at the fishing port. The devastation down there was incredible, but the strength of the community shows how quickly we were able to put that facility back into shape."

Yokota AFB:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Yokota-Air-Base-Japan/131001683600206

Thank you everyone for contributing to our efforts to keep the base informed. Please stay tuned to Channel 20 for pending localized details regarding voluntary departure information. Also, please keep in mind that the base is still safe right now. We'll inform base residents as soon as we have further details.

Kadena AFB:

http://www.kadena.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123247198

3/16/2011 - Members from the 320th Special Tactics Squadron download and upload new gear at Sendai Airport March 16. The crew brought water, food, fuel and other general supplies to the members of the 353rd Special Operations Group at Sendai for search and rescue missions. The 353rd Special Operations Group is establishing a usable runway at Sendai Airport to help with Japan's earthquake and tsunami relief.

 

[evnow]

I'd treat all unsourced information here as speculation - AFAIK - the people writing here are not nuke experts.

Let us keep in mind, for eg., that more than 300 people have died because of pollution associated with coal power plants since the tsunami.

So, question is not whether some radiation will reach the west coast - but how much. Chernobyl, a much, much bigger radiation fallout (where the reactor was critical, not shutdown like in Japan) affected an area perhaps a 1,000 mile away. Japan is some 10,000 miles away.

Here is a study of "Chernobyl as a Worst Case for Japan". If you superimpose the affected areas from Europe on Japan - this is what you see. Not even all of Japan is affected - let alone US that is 10,000 miles away.

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/03/chernobyl-as-worst-case-for-japan.html

 

[AndyH]

We'll ignore the part about the livestock in Wales and Germany that cannot be sold today - 25 years later - because they upset Geiger counters...

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

just saw the Obama announcement and he states its voluntary evacuation as well, but i am getting different info from people in Kadena. now maybe its just they are really anxious to get out but who knows.

i do know the ONLY reason for the statement today is to lower stress. it gave no information of any kind

 

[tbleakne]

NY Times has animated forecast of radiation plume crossing the Pacific. First band seems to reach Southern CA about 5 PM today, Mar 17. Source is Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Organization. It may well be based upon reported calculations done at Lawrence Livermore National Lab. This is primarily a weather simulation, with no predictions of radiation intensity, which are expected to be very low for now. The animation starts 3-12, so this first contact probably does not contain the high levels from the exposed rods.

This plume of hopefully highly diluted radioactive dust should not cause undue alarm, but we should monitor its radioactive levels. It might be prudent to wash your car more frequently if it spends time outdoors. In addition I think I will wash my hat.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/16/science/plume-graphic.html?ref=science

 

[AndyH]

The USAF has been flying UAVs and the U2 over Japan, and has flown sorties with a radiation-sniffing jet (based in Nebraska) so there's a probability that there's some real-world input to the radiation travel prediction.

 

[evnow]

NY Times has animated forecast of radiation plume crossing the Pacific.

This was a really bad piece on NYT part. There is enough scare mongering on CNN etc already.

Check this out. In the comments section people are trying to figure out the radiation release possibilities.

http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/17/fukushima-17-march-summary/

edit : Well, atleast NYT specifically has highlighted "The forecast does not show actual levels of radiation" and "extremely minor health consequences".

 

[LakeLeaf]

A bit more encouraging then yesterday:


Status of Fukushima plants

In Japan, engineers have laid a power line that can connect reactor 2 of the Daiichi facility to the off-site power grid, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported. Workers are working to reconnect the power to reactor 2 after they complete spraying water into the reactor 3 complex to provide additional cooling to the used fuel pool. Reconnecting to the power grid is expected to enhance efforts to prevent further damage at the plant.

Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency reported on Thursday that the backup diesel generator for reactor 6 is working and supplying electricity to reactors 5 and 6. TEPCO is preparing to add water to the storage pools that house used nuclear fuel rods at those two reactors.


UPDATE AS OF 1:30 P.M. EDT, THURSDAY, MARCH 17:

Radiation readings at the Fukushima Daiichi site boundary were measured today at a lower level, between 2 and 3 millirem per hour.


UPDATE AS OF 11:35 A.M. EDT, THURSDAY, MARCH 17:

Fukushima Daiichi
The reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi plant are in stable condition and are being cooled with seawater, but workers at the plant continue efforts to add cooling water to fuel pools at reactors 3 and 4.

The status of the reactors at the site is as follows:

Reactor 1's primary containment is believed to be intact and the reactor is in a stable condition. Seawater injection into the reactor is continuing.

Reactor 2 is in stable condition with seawater injection continuing. The reactor's primary containment may not have been breached, Tokyo Electric Power Co. and World Association of Nuclear Operators officials said on Thursday.

Access problems at the site have delayed connection of a temporary cable to restore off-site electricity. The connection will provide power to the control rod drive pump, instrumentation, batteries and the control room. Power has not been available at the site since the earthquake on March 11.

Reactor 3 is in stable condition with seawater injection continuing. The primary containment is believed to be intact. Pressure in the containment has fluctuated due to venting of the reactor containment structure.

TEPCO officials say that although one side of the concrete wall of the reactor 4 fuel pool structure has collapsed, the steel liner of the pool remains intact, based on aerial photos of the reactor taken on March 17. The pool still has water providing some cooling for the fuel; however, helicopters dropped water on the reactor four times during the morning (Japan time) on March 17. Water also was sprayed at reactor 4 using high-pressure water cannons.

Reactors 5 and 6 were both shut down before the quake occurred. Primary and secondary containments are intact at both reactors. Temperature instruments in the spent fuel pools at reactors 5 and 6 are operational, and temperatures are being maintained at about 62 degrees Celsius. TEPCO is continuing efforts to restore power at reactor 5.

Fukushima Daini
All four reactors at the Fukushima Daini plant have reached cold shutdown conditions with normal cooling being maintained using residual heat removal systems.

 

[evnow]

We'll ignore the part about the livestock in Wales and Germany that cannot be sold today - 25 years later - because they upset Geiger counters...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scottish-sheep-farms-finally-free-of-chernobyl-fallout-2020059.html

Food chain contamination is a big problem. I don't think fish in the ocean near the plants should be consumed anytime soon ... ofcourse, the same can be said about conventional food treated with an abundance of pesticides.

BTW, one big problem with Chernobyl was the large explosions that delivered Caesium-137 to the jetstream allowing it to be widely dispersed. That was possible since the reactor was "on" at that time. Now the reactors are all shutdown - which reduces their thermal energy to by more than 95%.

 

[evnow]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703818204576207011282898754.html

At Fukushima City, 60 miles from the plant, the recorded amount of radiation on Thursday was 20 microsieverts per hour, a level that is roughly 1,000 times higher than in Japanese cities far from the plant. Still, scientists say it isn't enough to cause long-term health effects.

Officials at Fukushima City also said that they found iodine, cesium-135 and cesium-137 in drinking water, at about one-quarter the levels that would make the water unfit to drink.

We will hear a lot about Cesium & micro/millisieverts in coming days.

See this for details & examples.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sievert#Definition

Average dose to people living within 16 km of Three Mile Island accident: 0.08 mSv; maximum dose: 1 mSv

0.08 mSv = 80 microsieverts or 4 times what is noticed now at Fukushima City, 60 miles from the plant.

 

[AndyH]

CNN 'watch live' is streaming NHK World.
http://www.cnn.com/video/flashLive/live.html?stream=stream2&hpt=T2

It's just after 2PM local - JDF are using airport fire engines to spray water on reactor 3 and refill the spent fuel storage tank. There's plenty of steam when the guys hit their target.

Bless them all.

 

[TomT]

Constant updates from the IAEA on Fukushima Reactor situation.

http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/tsunamiupdate01.html

 

[evnow]

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Progress_by_on-site_workers_1703111.html

Contamination cases
•One Tepco worker working within the reactor building of Fukushima Daiichi unit 3 during "vent work" was taken to hospital after receiving radiation exposure exceeding 100 mSv, a level deemed acceptable in emergency situations by some national nuclear safety regulators.
•Nine Tepco employees and eight subcontractors suffered facial exposure to low levels of radiation. They did not require hospital treatment.
•Two policemen were decontaminated after beng exposed to radiation.
•An unspecified number of firemen who were exposed to radiation are under investigation.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Glad to hear that things might going better than expected.

I guess the big question is who is saying this? The power company or the go ernment?

 

[LakeLeaf]

A little sobering information about things in the US:

Alvarez said the storage pools, elevated several stories above ground and not in a containment dome like the nuclear reactors themselves, have the potential of putting "significant amounts of cesium 137," a byproduct of nuclear fission, into the open air.

Cancer-causing Cesium 137, he added, "is the really bad actor in this" with its ability to emit penetrating radiation over long periods.

Of 104 nuclear reactors in the United States, Alvarez said, 34 are of the same design -- open-air, elevated storage pools -- as the Fukushima plant.

MORE SPENT FUEL IN U.S. POOLS

But the U.S. pools are storing much more spent fuel than the ones in Fukushima and "are currently holding, on the average, four times more than their design intended," he said.

That's because the United States has been unable to settle on long-term sites for storing waste from nuclear power plants.

Nearly a decade ago, Alvarez said, he began warning the United States about the need to pay more attention to risks at the open-air storage pools.

Peter Bradford, a former commissioner at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, said questions have been raised for years about whether spent fuel is being safely stored at U.S. power plants.

"The Nuclear Regulatory Commission pretty bluntly shunted those questions aside," Bradford told Reuters Insider TV. Bradford said the commission even tried to prevent the publication of a study of the issue completed by the National Academy of Sciences.

"That kind of complacency, the sense that everything is good enough already, is very unlikely to persist in the wake of these events" in Japan, said Bradford, who is now an adjunct professor at the Vermont Law School.