Nissan : Leaf’s Battery Pack Should Last As Long As The Car

[Stoaty]

In figuring out if the LEAF makes financial sense or not, I assume that it will depreciate to zero when it hits 100,000 miles on the basis batteries will be to costly to replace.

For those of us who will do just fine as long as the Leaf can drive 50 miles on a charge, your analysis doesn't make sense. Since I am only using the middle 50% of the Leafs battery, I figure that my battery will probably last a lot more than 100,000 miles in terms of its usefulness to me.

 

[smkettner]

I need maybe 20 miles range once we get the charging station at work. I plan to drive it to the very bottom if I can

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

I think this is a cool exercise and I certainly understand the enthusiasm to start pinning down some figures. I do think the assumptions you make need some adjustment:

-I think EPA's MPG equivalent doesn't really show the real savings. Depending on the price of electricity and how you drive, you can do a lot better. I'm getting over 200 MPG equivalent, about 2.2 cents a mile.
-Cost of gas is likely to increase much faster than electricity.
- for now, I wouldn't bother including savings from free electricity... at least for me, the vast majority of my driving needs are covered by charging at home. So far, I've only used public chargers because I have a use it or loose it philosophy about them.
- Depreciation – this is a wild car, it's just two early to tell, but I seriously doubt 100% in 10 years. Most folks average 40 miles a day, the battery will likely take a long time to go from 80ish miles to 40, where people start to feel it... and by then, lots of public chargers.
-Maintenance Costs – I won't expect to see anything like $1,000 a year for quite a while, I think that number is too high.
-I think the Leaf is one or two generations away from not needing government incentives to be competatively priced, and if gas keeps going up and the battery price goes down, the equation will only get better.



-

FIVE years is the life of a car??? I am thinking 15 to 20 years is the life of a vehicle.
Usually there is lots of life left when I sell a vehicle in 10 to 15 years.

In figuring out if the LEAF makes financial sense or not, I assume that it will depreciate to zero when it hits 100,000 miles on the basis batteries will be to costly to replace. Any residual car value will be cancelled by the hazardous waste disposal fee for the now worn out batteries.

10-15 years lifespan for a car? Yeah for an ICE.

The LEAF is brand new technology that will become obsolete as fast as you can spell it.

My financial estimates can be found at
http://jpwhitenissanleaf.com/2011/03/28/nissan-leaf-scrunching-the-numbers/

BTW My initial actual cost figures are within 1% of my estimates. Seems like my estimates were very close to reality, thanks to very accurate EPA data on the LEAF. I'll post an article/findings once I get to 1,000 miles which should be a good enough data sample. I'm only at 300 right now. Early/Mid September I should hit that landmark.

 

[LEAFfan]

Any residual car value will be cancelled by the hazardous waste disposal fee for the now worn out batteries.

Hmm, I guess you missed the memo about how Nissan is going to recycle the used batteries? With 70-80% capacity left, they will be used for on/off grid electricity storage. There will be NO hazardous waste disposal fees.

 

[JPVLeaf]

Hmm, I guess you missed the memo about how Nissan is going to recycle the used batteries? With 70-80% capacity left, they will be used for on/off grid electricity storage. There will be NO hazardous waste disposal fees.

... and a residual/salvage value.

 

[Herm]

These batteries do not have any heavy metals, or other long term environmental poisons. They could start a fire if damaged since they store a lot of energy, so proper precautions have to be taken on disposal

http://blogs.computerworld.com/node/3285

"According to the U.S. government, lithium ion batteries aren't an environmental hazard. "Lithium Ion batteries are classified by the federal government as non-hazardous waste and are safe for disposal in the normal municipal waste stream," says Kate Krebs at the National Recycling Coalition. While other types of batteries include toxic metals such as cadmium, the metals in lithium ion batteries - cobalt, copper, nickel and iron - are considered safe for landfills or incinerators ."

 

[JPWhite]

In figuring out if the LEAF makes financial sense or not, I assume that it will depreciate to zero when it hits 100,000 miles on the basis batteries will be to costly to replace.

For those of us who will do just fine as long as the Leaf can drive 50 miles on a charge, your analysis doesn't make sense. Since I am only using the middle 50% of the Leafs battery, I figure that my battery will probably last a lot more than 100,000 miles in terms of its usefulness to me.

I'm being very conservative in my estimates. If the LEAF makes financial sense if it is worn out at 100,000 miles, then if it lasts 200,000 miles then the savings get better and better. I write it off at the end of the battery warranty. Since I created the analysis in Excel, feel free to calculate based upon different assumptions. as they say YMMV.

Remember that this is brand new technology, it will be obsolete quickly and no one knows how the batteries of today will hold up in 5,10,15 years. Once EV's are mainstream the aftermarket will provide a plentiful supply of reasonably priced battery replacements, the LEAF may never attract a strong aftermarket due to modest sales of these early models. I assume the worst and hope for the best

 

[evnow]

I'm being very conservative in my estimates.

Buying a new car doesn't make financial sense.

TOC of a 3 year old car driven for 7 years is much better than TOC of a new car driven for 10 years, when calculated on a yearly basis.

 

[LKK]

I think the Leaf, and other EVs should last far longer than an ordinary ICE vehicle. In industrial applications heavy duty electric motors last forever, far longer than gas or diesel engines. In place of a complex transmission there is only a simple reduction gear. Because of the low number of parts in the drivetrain and the benign operating conditions, I think it should last forever. All the experts seem to agree that the battery will have to be replaced sometime and the detractors point to this as the ultimate weakness of the EVs, but I'm not sure they are correct. As pointed out in previous posts the battery may well have a second life serving as an energy storage device for utilities or backup home power. In addition, the experts say they expect battery technology to improve in cost and performance. So yes in eight years you may have to replace the battery, but the new battery will be a lot cheaper and provide a lot more performace. So instead of buying a new car you should be able to replace the battery and change out some of the ordinary car parts that wear out like springs and bushings and have a vehicle that will provide better performance than your original car.

The key difference is to restore an ordinary ICE car you have to go through expensive driveline repairs (engine and transmission). The cost of these repairs are so large it is typically not worth the effort. In an EV the driveline should last several time longer. So the major cost to extend the life of the vehicle is battery replacement. But due to technology advances the new battery will make the car perform significantly better, and I hope, cheaper than replacing an ICE engine and transmission.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

With only a few hundred miles on your car it is good to be cautious. After a few thousand you will be amazed. Seeing your electric bill will do wonders.

the other thing I think you missed in your estimate on the effect to resale value is of rising consumer confidence in the technology and how that could easily offset some of the usual depreciation. in 5-10 years it will be so well established that these cars are many times more reliable and many times less expensive to maintain and run that their resale value may stay remarkably high, as people drop ICE vehicles en mass and move to EV's. The real place to worry about keeping your money over the next 10 years is in gas cars, even hybrids, that is going to be a very volatile market, knowing when to get out will be key, especially if you have a newer car that is worth a lot now. Keeping up with demand for EV's will be very difficult once the bottom falls out of the market for gas cars and everyone starts wanting an EV long before the gas cars are warn out. The shortage of supply of EV's combined with high demand will likely make even the first mass produced EV a great long term investment.

the thing that starts to worry me is what's going to happen to all those ICE cars... maybe we need to start focusing on how to retrofit them, though including regenerative breaking and all the fancy gizmo's may make that impractical.

g

In figuring out if the LEAF makes financial sense or not, I assume that it will depreciate to zero when it hits 100,000 miles on the basis batteries will be to costly to replace.

For those of us who will do just fine as long as the Leaf can drive 50 miles on a charge, your analysis doesn't make sense. Since I am only using the middle 50% of the Leafs battery, I figure that my battery will probably last a lot more than 100,000 miles in terms of its usefulness to me.

I'm being very conservative in my estimates. If the LEAF makes financial sense if it is worn out at 100,000 miles, then if it lasts 200,000 miles then the savings get better and better. I write it off at the end of the battery warranty. Since I created the analysis in Excel, feel free to calculate based upon different assumptions. as they say YMMV.

Remember that this is brand new technology, it will be obsolete quickly and no one knows how the batteries of today will hold up in 5,10,15 years. Once EV's are mainstream the aftermarket will provide a plentiful supply of reasonably priced battery replacements, the LEAF may never attract a strong aftermarket due to modest sales of these early models. I assume the worst and hope for the best

 

[SanDust]

My memory is a bit different.

From day one nissan claimed 20% after 5 years, 30% after 10.

Nissan has said it expects Leaf drivers to have around 70 to 80 percent capacity left in the pack after ten years. What will get drivers to the upper or lower end of that range? The amount of fast charging one does. With regular Level 2 charging, drivers should expect 80 percent live left in the battery. With a lot of Level 3 charging – two or three times a day – the pack will only be at the 70 percent level.

I read this as 80% capacity after ten years assuming you don't use DC charging several times a day. That was then. Now it's 80% after five years, assuming always charge only to 80%. That last bit wasn't even mentioned when they were rolling out the car.

 

[surfingslovak]

Now it's 80% after five years, assuming always charge only to 80%. That last bit wasn't even mentioned when they were rolling out the car.

Based on what I've seen and read elsewhere I have hard time believing that. Nevertheless, should this be true, we will see about 4% capacity fade after the first year. Would you know who is driving the first commercial Leaf, would that be gudy or someone in Japan perhaps?

 

[SanDust]

10-15 years lifespan for a car? Yeah for an ICE.

People do keep old cars around but generally they don't put many miles on them. The miles per year really drops off after ten years or so. So when you start comparing useful lives of ICE and EVs you have to factor this in. A fifteen year old EV with only 50% of its original battery capacity available may still be roughly as serviceable as a 15 year old ICE vehicle.

 

[SanDust]

Based on what I've seen and read elsewhere I have hard time believing that.

Do you think it will be more? Less? If you think less keep in mind that the OP posted the article in which a Nissan spokesperson said: “Our tests suggest that the battery will be at 80% capacity after five years depending on charging and usage.”

So yeah, 4% a year over the first five years. It may be hard to tell by the range numbers.

 

[LEAFfan]

With regular Level 2 charging, drivers should expect 80 percent live left in the battery. With a lot of Level 3 charging – two or three times a day – the pack will only be at the 70 percent level.

And your evidence for QC charging degradation is? Just in case you haven't heard or read, these battery packs were extensively tested to simulate at least 8 years of charging. Included in this testing was QC up to 6 times a day without ANY more degradation than regular charging. My source: Brendan Jones told me that in June of this year. So I predict that our battery packs will lose no more than 20% capacity in 8 years using this data.

 

[surfingslovak]

Do you think it will be more? Less? If you think less keep in mind that the OP posted the article in which a Nissan spokesperson said: “Our tests suggest that the battery will be at 80% capacity after five years depending on charging and usage.”

So yeah, 4% a year over the first five years. It may be hard to tell by the range numbers.

OK, I will go and find that article. Yes, the degradation will be hard to gauge by decreasing range, but the SOC meter other folks on this forum are building should help.

I think that there will be less capacity fade. This is not just wishful thinking, it's based on other quotes and statements from Nissan, comparative research and a number of test reports I went through. Assuming 80% charging, shallow DOD cycle and limited exposure to high temps, an eight year lifespan with 20% capacity fade is entirely plausible.

I'm not saying that what the Nissan spokesperson stated is incorrect, but I've witnessed quite a few quotes from Nissan that were out of context and could be interpreted in different ways. If someone says that they expect X % capacity fade after Y years, they must include both the charging and discharging protocol and the ambient temperature. These factors greatly affect the life expectancy of a lithium ion battery pack.

The most frustrating thing with Nissan is the lack of transparency. We still don't know what charging to full means in terms of cell voltage and SOC %. These are crucial pieces of information. Likewise, we don't know how much energy is left in the pack when you stop dead after turtle. Apparently, the same Nissan spokesperson that made the latest comment about battery life expectancy stated that Jeremy Clarkson's Leaf held 1.33% charge when Top Gear staged their stunt in Lincoln earlier this year. This is quite obviously bogus, and it only makes sense when you connect the dots and fill in the pieces of information they didn't give you.

It's frustrating to no end. What are they afraid of, that someone will copy their advanced battery tech? Give me a break. The battery uses fairly old chemistry and while there are certain innovative and commendable aspects to it, this is a long stretch. Their biggest competitive advantage is the low manufacturing cost, which cannot be easily copied. Tesla has been much more open and generous with their information on battery tech, charging and usage protocols and I don't think that it was to their detriment.

 

[Herm]

They are being very coy with the info.. but you should be able to buy replacement modules at a dealership soon

http://www.nrel.gov/vehiclesandfuels/vsa/pdfs/49252.pdf

This study says 3% yearly capacity degradation due to temperature in Phoenix, AZ.. that works out to about 6 years to 80% capacity.

 

[TonyWilliams]

We still don't know what charging to full means in terms of cell voltage and SOC %. These are crucial pieces of information.

Does this help?

"Every time I've watched my car charge, the charge terminates at 394V or 394.5V "100%"
(ie 4.10v/cell) even though RAhC has only hit 280 max.. Once I saw it climb to 281 but then while still charging reset back to 280.. Incidentally, "80%" is only 4.05v/cell."

 

[LEAFfan]

http://www.nrel.gov/vehiclesandfuels/vsa/pdfs/49252.pdf
This study says 3% yearly capacity degradation due to temperature in Phoenix, AZ.. that works out to about 6 years to 80% capacity.

You left out some important information with this study: It's 3% only IF pre-cooling/preheating isn't used. And how long did they say that the car had to stay in 95 degree heat to reach that 3%? I didn't find that VERY important information. That will make a BIG difference on degradation. I'm sure a couple hours each day isn't going to have any significant impact. I'm also willing to bet that they have received monies/grants from BIG OIL to do the study.

 

[Herm]

You left out some important information with this study: It's 3% only IF pre-cooling/preheating isn't used. And how long did they say that the car had to stay in 95 degree heat to reach that 3%? I didn't find that VERY important information. That will make a BIG difference on degradation. I'm sure a couple hours each day isn't going to have any significant impact.

They worked out an average 30° C in Phoenix, I assume that includes baking in a hot parking lot in the summer and nightime temps in the winter.. from the chart that looks like 3% yearly. Note that the Leaf cannot cool the battery pack, and preheating/precooling the cabin wont have any effect on battery temp. Note that they mention this in the study.

The one question I have about the simulation is that they dont use the exact battery chemistry Leaf uses now, but the improved one they will use in 2015. I think. There is still some hope.

If I lived in Phoenix, I would want to keep the Leaf under shade at all times. Perhaps this where they came up with the 5 year life?. Even if the Leaf had active battery cooling, what use would it be unless you kept it plugged in during the hottest part of the day?

When is the last time you had a car battery last 5 years in Phoenix?