LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

[NavyCuda]

I can't agree with that. By doing it wrong (no thermal management with current chemistry) for years, while hoping to eventually get it right, they are not so much "getting a leg up over the competition" as "losing both current and future EV buyers."

Well you're entitled to your uneducated opinion. When developing a technology for a long service life it's best to design it to be as simple as possible. The current chemistry issues only effect a portion of Nissans client base. In my area thermal management would be of no benifit.

Part of rapidly developing a technology includes getting it to mass production which helps polish the product with gradual improvements.

Yes, for the first three or four battery generations thermal management will be superior however it also blinds the development to the thermal issues of the cells.

So the only sales Nissan will lose are to people who do not think critically, or about the future. I will replace my 2015 with the next gen Leaf, no other manufacturer will get my EV business except perhaps Infiniti who is still Nissan.

 

[evnow]

So the only sales Nissan will lose are to people who do not think critically, or about the future.

In other words, 95% of the market ?

 

[NavyCuda]

So the only sales Nissan will lose are to people who do not think critically, or about the future.

In other words, 95% of the market ?

Let's see a valid statistical study that verifies your claim.

 

[Jedlacks]

Every morning I wake up I wish I could unsubscribe from "that other thread" that someone want to do damage to a major company because he did not get a free battery. Now, I'm jumping in and agreeing with 'Cuda on this thread.

I wrote a bunch of things and deleted it. I'll leave it at 'Cuda is right :lol:

 

[ydnas7]

so, its starting to coalesce

LEAF 2 to be about 10% more range (due to aero/weight) and slightly cheaper to manufacture (no TMS)
a good mass market solution,

its best that GM and Nissan are not releasing the same car, more useful variety, the better

 

[evnow]

So the only sales Nissan will lose are to people who do not think critically, or about the future.

In other words, 95% of the market ?

Let's see a valid statistical study that verifies your claim.

Are you serious ?! :lol:

 

[NavyCuda]

In other words, 95% of the market ?

Let's see a valid statistical study that verifies your claim.

Are you serious ?! :lol:

My attempt at return humor failed apparently!

 

[LeftieBiker]

Well you're entitled to your uneducated opinion

Thanks. Right back at you. Now, who exactly would have an "educated opinion" on Leaf thermal management - perhaps someone who drove a first version Leaf and lost three bars? Nissan can perhaps be forgiven for testing their car in Japan, where the climate is cool. Once they received evidence that their packs were degrading rapidly in hotter locales, though, they had two reasonable choices: stop selling the Leaf in places where it's generally much hotter than Japan, or develop an active cooling system for the Leaf. (It could have been as simple as blowing cooled air from the climate control over the pack, using the existing passive duct setup.) Instead, they chose to incrementally improve the battery chemistry enough to...avoid having to replace more packs. That's smart, all right - just as smart as GM's decision to crush the EV-1s even when owners wanted to buy them, and sign waivers of liability.

I'm sure that Nissan will learn - eventually, like GM, rather than quickly - from their blunders, but I'm not going to call them anything but "blunders." You are entitled to think otherwise.

 

[NavyCuda]

Well you're entitled to your uneducated opinion

Thanks. Right back at you. Now, who exactly would have an "educated opinion" on Leaf thermal management - perhaps someone who drove a first version Leaf and lost three bars? Nissan can perhaps be forgiven for testing their car in Japan, where the climate is cool. Once they received evidence that their packs were degrading rapidly in hotter locales, though, they had two reasonable choices: stop selling the Leaf in places where it's generally much hotter than Japan, or develop an active cooling system for the Leaf. (It could have been as simple as blowing cooled air from the climate control over the pack, using the existing passive duct setup.) Instead, they chose to incrementally improve the battery chemistry enough to...avoid having to replace more packs. That's smart, all right - just as smart as GM's decision to crush the EV-1s even when owners wanted to buy them, and sign waivers of liability.

I'm sure that Nissan will learn - eventually, like GM, rather than quickly - from their blunders, but I'm not going to call them anything but "blunders." You are entitled to think otherwise.

Perhaps your expectations of a first generation EV, a major risk on Nissans part, were unreasonable.

 

[Phatcat73]

My cars (non TMS)
2013 Leaf in Chicago - down 15% after 37k miles. Chicago is considered a great climate for the Leaf
2015 Leaf in Phoenix - down 15% after 12k miles. Nissan promoted Lizard battery... Fail

TMS cars, per my research
Tesla down 10% after 100k miles
Volt down near 0% after 100k miles

I know what I'll be looking for in my next EV

 

[EVDRIVER]

My cars (non TMS)

TMS cars, per my research

Volt down near 0% after 100k miles

I know what I'll be looking for in my next EV

The Volt battery is handled differently and does not have zero loss. You can't use the Volt as a benchmark for loss, not accurately.

 

[powersurge]

Where did you get those numbers from??? I cannot believe that a 2015 Leaf with 12K miles is down 15%.. I have a 2015 with 22K miles with 100% SOH..

I would like to err on the side of optimism, and say that those "reports" of poor Leaf batteries may be the 1-5% of cars that either have defects, or have owners that have run down the batteries down to turtle mode before they charge the car.

I, as a student of human behavior, believe that many reports of failures may be due to high temperatures AND owners that push the car way past its limits from either stupidity, lack of concern, or just plain disregard (wanting to do a "torture test" like I always see on YouTube). Then there are those shills or "plants" that are trying to discredit a product (like many BS negative reviews we see on Amazon all the time....)

With these complainers, when their product bites the dust, they cry like a baby and swear that they were given a "defective" product. As proof of this, check out the "return" line at Costco, and see what kind of crap people return and say it is "defective". Imagine how these people would cry wolf on an expensive product like a car... On an ICE car, these people would be given a boot out the dealer door because it would be proven the car was abused or not properly maintained. On a Leaf, with no maintenance, I would imagine that it is impossible to prove abuse of the car.

PS - I have a 2015 Leaf and feel that it is serving my needs PERECTLY. Yes, a little more range would be nice--- but the product is great as it is, and what we now need to do is PROMOTE the product, and not TRASH it... Do all you negative people realize what you are doing by over-intellectualizing and nit-picking every aspect of this car? You are KILLING sales. You are scaring any person investigating the Leaf prior to buying one (by checking out this forum). Damn, listening to many of you bellyachers that the Leaf is no good until it has a 200 mile battery (like the tesla) would make me run the other way from buying a Leaf... And those negative people are CRAZY for trying to compare a $20K Leaf to a $90K Tesla to begin with. The tesla is only a disposable-income fun toy for the rich...

 

[NavyCuda]

I have a 2015 Leaf that has 31,000km on it. It would be about 36,000 now but it's been stuck in a body shop for almost two months.

My commute is 62.5km each way, I drive the car pretty hard but rarely go below 40% state of charge. The car is charged L2 at work and L1 at home. I don't have Leaf spy or anything like that, however over the period of time I've owned the car the usable capacity has gotten better, not worse, since new.

There is something else you may not be considering in your evaluation. If the Tesla averages the same usage as the Leaf, then the degradation on the Tesla is actually worse than the Leaf. A battery is killed by the number of cycles it endures but also how much the battery is discharged each cycle. So just pulling numbers from thin air, but say your trip uses 60% capacity in the Leaf but only 27% capacity in the Tesla, the discharge rate is much lower but the comparative degradation is actually worse.

 

[powersurge]

Yes, navycuda,
batteries degrade from the number of "cycles". However.... My experience with rechargeable batteries of all kinds (including cordless drills and such) has been that the cycles that more "negatively" affect a battery is when you discharge it to a low state (10-20%) before you recharge it.

I have also recharged my Leaf from no lower than about 40-50%, and feel that those cycles are not as deteriorating as charges from a deeply discharged battery.... My Leaf runs great, with no evidence of any deterioration in almost 20 months and 22K miles.

 

[dhanson865]

Yes, navycuda,
batteries degrade from the number of "cycles". However.... My experience with rechargeable batteries of all kinds (including cordless drills and such) has been that the cycles that more "negatively" affect a battery is when you discharge it to a low state (10-20%) before you recharge it.

I have also recharged my Leaf from no lower than about 40-50%, and feel that those cycles are not as deteriorating as charges from a deeply discharged battery.... My Leaf runs great, with no evidence of any deterioration in almost 20 months and 22K miles.

Going to 10% SOC on a battery that fits in the palm of your hand is more damaging than going to 10% on a battery the size of a car.

The more cells involved in the pack the more you can average/balance the cells.

With that tiny hand held pack you can bet there isn't much in the way of balancing.

But then to get a Leaf to 10% SOC you have to drive past the low battery warning, the very low battery warning, watch the flashing GOM numbers, watch the GOM go to ---, and maybe even hit turtle. I doubt the average leaf driver ever sees 10% SOC even in their worst case scenario.

 

[TomT]

I have a PhD in electrical engineering and like to think that I have reasonably good critical reasoning abilities... Thus, my experience with my 2011 Leaf specifically, and with Nissan in general, has led me to the opposite conclusion: Nissan will not again get any of my EV business unless there are some dramatic changes in both.

 

[NavyCuda]

I have a PhD in electrical engineering and like to think that I have reasonably good critical reasoning abilities... Thus, my experience with my 2011 Leaf specifically, and with Nissan in general, has led me to the opposite conclusion: Nissan will not again get any of my EV business unless there are some dramatic changes in both.

While I can understand your reasoning, using your PhD to support your position actually weakens your argument. Basing your opinion on such a small sample size, on the first generation battery of the first real effort at an EV is a perfect example of a lack of critical thinking.

When you bought or leased your 2011, you knew you were an early adopter of new technology. You knew you were buying a car from an automobile manufacturer, none of which will bend over backwards to satisfy everyone. So your expectations and conclusions from your limited experience are unreasonable.

I have only experience with the 2015 Leaf, so I can't make broad conclusions based off one car of one model year. However I knew what I was getting into and the risks assosiated with the Leaf. I consciously made the decision to buy a car that bucks the status quo, that by comparison to conventional automobiles still has a massive development curve ahead of it.

Take responsibility for your choices, don't blame Nissan. If you have a battery pack that is obviously toast and fits within their specifications for warranty replacement, they will replace it. If your battery is just above those specifications then you will be stuck with it. This is nothing new and has been happening with conventional automobiles and insurance repairs for decades.

 

[LeftieBiker]

Basing your opinion on such a small sample size, on the first generation battery of the first real effort at an EV is a perfect example of a lack of critical thinking.

I'm beginning to think that this guy actually believes that the Leaf was the first mass-manufactured EV. The Leaf wasn't the first "real" EV, wasn't the first "real" four-wheeled EV, and wasn't the first attempt to sell an EV to the general public. It wasn't even the first four-wheeled EV from a major auto manufacturer. Thus the idea that Nissan should be excused for the Leaf's failings because it's " the first real effort at an EV" shows a lack of both critical thinking and knowledge of the subject under discussion.

 

[NeilBlanchard]

A (perhaps) more reliable source reports on the LEAF gen 2, and adds CG's comments on selling BEVs into the cheap-gas headwind:

Next-gen Leaf: More tech despite low sales

Nissan to cut EV's weight, ease charging, boost battery power and driving range

...Officially, Nissan has barely acknowledged that there will be a second-generation Leaf, let alone revealed specifics about the product, which likely will appear in the 2018-20 time frame.

But engineers in Atsugi freely show the work they are doing on a future EV that fits into the Leaf's footprint.

The team is in the late stages of a perfecting a 60 kilowatt-hour lithium ion vehicle battery that has the same dimensions as the 30 kWh battery just introduced on the 2016 Leaf. The 30 kWh battery is an enhancement from last year's 24 kWh battery.

The 60 kWh battery has graduated from r&d last year to running in prototypes today.

Teams also have targeted aerodynamics in a big way for the next EV. Engineers at Atsugi note that even a small improvement in aerodynamic design goes a long way on a battery-powered vehicle...

The enhancements also have targeted the chemical resistance involved in recharging the battery...

In discussing the Leaf's future, Ghosn also hints at a shift in marketing strategy. He acknowledges that U.S. consumers have focused mainly on the economics of owning a battery-powered car. Their equation is how much of the monthly household budget can be saved by not filling up a gasoline tank -- a math equation that loses its excitement when gasoline drops to $1.95 a gallon, as it is in some areas today.

Ghosn says that the marketing focus instead should be environmental...

"The price of gasoline is going to be either head wind or tail wind for us. It will slow you down or accelerate you," he says. "But it's not going to change the direction of where we're going."

http://www.autonews.com/article/20151116/OEM05/311169970/next-gen-leaf-more-tech-despite-low-sales

Thanks - there are several very interesting points there. I really like the emphasis on lower drag aerodynamics - this makes a LOT of sense, because it means the range will be longer for any given battery pack capacity. This means lower weight, and lower cost for any given range.

Also, the lower chemical resistance could well mean better thermal stability. Remember too, that a larger pack puts far less stress on each cell, and so all else being equal, a larger capacity pack will last longer.

I think the IDS Concept looks great!

Looks like a cross between the BMW i3 and i8. I hope we find out what the Leaf 2.0 actually looks like.

 

[desiv]

Basing your opinion on such a small sample size, on the first generation battery of the first real effort at an EV is a perfect example of a lack of critical thinking.

I'm beginning to think that this guy actually believes that the Leaf was the first mass-manufactured EV..

To be fair, he said "first real effort."
When you leave out compliance cars and the EV1 (never a real effort), the Leaf was one of the first real efforts at a mass produced electric car from a major auto manufacturer, at least here in the US...
(What else was there?? Well if you go way back, there were some around like the Edison Electric..)

I believe that is all he was saying..

desiv