Is the crazy high demand really there?

[kevintari]

For a while I've been hearing about the demand for these cars, especially when it comes to explaining the dealer markups.

Last night I was watching the latest episode of The Car Show and they said that sales were unexpectedly low, something like 135 a month being delivered in the US, and not completely due to the tsunami.

When I was shopping around for an orphan yesterday morning, I was surprised at how many I found very close to me. I had two more messages from dealers that had them when I got home from work as well.

So...is the demand and scarcity of these cars for real, or is it more hype? Do you think the ordering process adds to it, with the wait time, the countdown to delivery, and the fact that you can't just walk into a lot and get one (orphans aside)?

Interesting.

 

[Pipcecil]

The show actually was very incorrect. Current US deliveries are topping at 1000-1500 a month, and it may be more now. Its definetely way over 135 a month. As for the Orphans, they are more rare than you think. I was shopping for an orphan for a very long time. When you look online at a dealership or cars.com or autotrader the leafs you see there are most likely false. When a dealership gets its inventory list for its cars coming in the next day, the on-line section of their dealership usually post ALL of these cars online, including any that have been reserved.

If you called those dealerships with leafs available online more than likely those are reserved vehicles are ones that the online people have been just too lazy to remove (although many leave cars online after sales as a "hook" to get you to come to the dealership). While searching for an orphan in the entire state of Texas, I usually had one or two a month pop up. Unfortunately, it took me many months to locate one that had the majority of the items I wanted.

So the demand is there, but some people (or TV shows) really have a beef against the leaf and/or electric cars and try to put them in the most negative light as possible, usually saying outright lies when the truth is readily available.

 

[TRONZ]

The Nissan LEAF is Ranked #1 for Most In-Demand Vehicle. Average time on a dealer lot is 4 days. This seems long since most people are picking their LEAFs up the same day they hit the ground.

Regarding Orphans, a dealer will call everyone on their list when a LEAF comes available. They would never admit it, but this way they can get the highest price possible for the car.

 

[TomT]

A year or so from now we should have a much better idea of what the real, sustainable demand is... I'm guessing about 20,000 a year in the U.S.

The Nissan LEAF is Ranked #1 for Most In-Demand Vehicle. Average time on a dealer lot is 4 days. This seems long since most people are picking their LEAFs up the same day they hit the ground.

 

[Train]

I'm sure you'll see plenty of Leafs for sale this fall at dealerships. Most early adopters and enthusiasts in the roll out states have their Leaf.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I'm sure you'll see plenty of Leafs for sale this fall at dealerships. Most early adopters and enthusiasts in the roll out states have their Leaf.

I'm this close from bailing and getting my $99 back. Unless you are content being taken advantage of the dealers here in FL are miserable to work with.

 

[gbshaun]

I'm sure you'll see plenty of Leafs for sale this fall at dealerships. Most early adopters and enthusiasts in the roll out states have their Leaf.

I'm this close from bailing and getting my $99 back. Unless you are content being taken advantage of the dealers here in FL are miserable to work with.

Have you evaluated the relative cost of buying out of state orphan, or replacing an order with an out-of-state dealer? We have plenty of data now of successful purchases.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

...

So the demand is there, but some people (or TV shows) really have a beef against the leaf and/or electric cars and try to put them in the most negative light as possible, usually saying outright lies when the truth is readily available.

this really does seem to be the case. I'm still not sure where all the hate is coming from. Maybe hate is too harsh a word, but it does feel like there is a concerted effort to paint as dismal a picture of EV's as possible and fear monger and doubt every step of the way. Oddly, I found this forum to be it's own worst enemy when I first came on board. I am glad to see that it appears that has changed. The trouble with forums like this is hyper analysis and for every one person writing something, there are 10 looking over everyone's shoulder, quietly making a long list of all the concerns, which results in a lot of folks getting unnecessarily overwhelmed and discouraged.

Something this new has such a huge hurdle to overcome. I think Nissan has done a stellar job putting out a car that is so well vetted that it can withstand the constant headwind of doubt, fear and out right maliciousness from so many angles. Virtually every concern I had gotten worked up about after reading on line forums, turns out to have melted away, revealing a mole hill where each mountain originally appeared. Range? plenty! Battery Life? looking pretty good so far, even for those doing frequent QC's! Reliability? Excellent!
economy? beyond my wildest dreams! Only more time will truly tell, but so far, this is the most amazing vehicle I have ever driven, hands down!

This car has the high demand it has despite all the bad press, hyper analysis and japan quake. Imagine how much faster the EV revolution could happen if we could somehow improve the noise to signal ratio of Op Ed articles! this technology truly offers a way off of foreign oil, a way out of exporting so much of our wealth, but not first without threatening the gravy train of some very wealthy and powerful people who want things to stay, just the way they are.

g

 

[derkraut]

...

So the demand is there, but some people (or TV shows) really have a beef against the leaf and/or electric cars and try to put them in the most negative light as possible, usually saying outright lies when the truth is readily available.

this really does seem to be the case. I'm still not sure where all the hate is coming from. Maybe hate is too harsh a word, but it does feel like there is a concerted effort to paint as dismal a picture of EV's as possible and fear monger and doubt every step of the way. Oddly, I found this forum to be it's own worst enemy when I first came on board. I am glad to see that it appears that has changed. The trouble with forums like this is hyper analysis and for every one person writing something, there are 10 looking over everyone's shoulder, quietly making a long list of all the concerns, which results in a lot of folks getting unnecessarily overwhelmed and discouraged.

Something this new has such a huge hurdle to overcome. I think Nissan has done a stellar job putting out a car that is so well vetted that it can withstand the constant headwind of doubt, fear and out right maliciousness from so many angles. Virtually every concern I had gotten worked up about after reading on line forums, turns out to have melted away, revealing a mole hill where each mountain originally appeared. Range? plenty! Battery Life? looking pretty good so far, even for those doing frequent QC's! Reliability? Excellent!
economy? beyond my wildest dreams! Only more time will truly tell, but so far, this is the most amazing vehicle I have ever driven, hands down!

This car has the high demand it has despite all the bad press, hyper analysis and japan quake. Imagine how much faster the EV revolution could happen if we could somehow improve the noise to signal ratio of Op Ed articles! this technology truly offers a way off of foreign oil, a way out of exporting so much of our wealth, but not first without threatening the gravy train of some very wealthy and powerful people who want things to stay, just the way they are.

g

IMHO, the "electric car bashers" are trying to justify to you (and to themselves) that they are doing the right thing when driving their gas-guzzlers.

 

[EVDRIVER]

...

So the demand is there, but some people (or TV shows) really have a beef against the leaf and/or electric cars and try to put them in the most negative light as possible, usually saying outright lies when the truth is readily available.

this really does seem to be the case. I'm still not sure where all the hate is coming from. Maybe hate is too harsh a word, but it does feel like there is a concerted effort to paint as dismal a picture of EV's as possible and fear monger and doubt every step of the way. Oddly, I found this forum to be it's own worst enemy when I first came on board. I am glad to see that it appears that has changed. The trouble with forums like this is hyper analysis and for every one person writing something, there are 10 looking over everyone's shoulder, quietly making a long list of all the concerns, which results in a lot of folks getting unnecessarily overwhelmed and discouraged.

Something this new has such a huge hurdle to overcome. I think Nissan has done a stellar job putting out a car that is so well vetted that it can withstand the constant headwind of doubt, fear and out right maliciousness from so many angles. Virtually every concern I had gotten worked up about after reading on line forums, turns out to have melted away, revealing a mole hill where each mountain originally appeared. Range? plenty! Battery Life? looking pretty good so far, even for those doing frequent QC's! Reliability? Excellent!
economy? beyond my wildest dreams! Only more time will truly tell, but so far, this is the most amazing vehicle I have ever driven, hands down!

This car has the high demand it has despite all the bad press, hyper analysis and japan quake. Imagine how much faster the EV revolution could happen if we could somehow improve the noise to signal ratio of Op Ed articles! this technology truly offers a way off of foreign oil, a way out of exporting so much of our wealth, but not first without threatening the gravy train of some very wealthy and powerful people who want things to stay, just the way they are.

g

I agree that there is quite a bit of fear mongering and over analysis here at times but in no way would I call the LEAF "fully vetted". The EV drive is good but the entire user interface is very poor and thrown together with one of the worst NAV systems functionally by todays standards. There are many poor decisions made on the car from a user perspective that are almost too dumb to believe like the rear hatch warning indicator and other features. Almost all of Nissans other cars are far better and because they were rushed or cheap this car suffered some foolish mistakes. A modern EV should have stellar user interface and NAV not a cobbled together solution that is frustrating and inaccurate to the point it is often useless. Even basic items like the pull for the charge port were poorly implemented, these are basic no-brainer items but some off the bigger mistakes are really unexplainable.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

20,000 a year?? Nissan seems to think it will be more like 150,000 or they are wasting a lot of money on a brand new plant.

i think that no one should pay over MSRP. sure it would be tough to wait but the time will come when they will sell for that or less. with the restricted supply in certain areas, that will probably not happen until the TN plant is in full swing in 2013.

but as far as demand?? ya, its here. now it might not be there. demand varies greatly from one area to another and using an EV in an area that has no support structure is like using a gas car with no gas stations other than that big tank you have to have sitting in your backyard.

ask the guy who bought his car in CA then moved to FL.

 

[thankyouOB]

from what I can tell, most negative reviews are by folks and media who expect the EV to function just like their ICE.
the EVs dont. they have specific and important advantages and ditto for shortcomings.
you cant put a virgin EV driver in front of a keyboard and expect him or her to write with perspective.
http://www.jewishjournal.com/rob_eshman/article/a_new_leaf_20110621/
this article is a prime example.
as was that OC Register article by the faith-based guy who hates all tax subsidies (ie just the EVs) but gladly uses the mortgage and property tax deduction.

It will take some time for the word to get around via enough Leafs, etc.
clean, very cheap to run, subsidized, great commuter car.

 

[sirfergy]

...

So the demand is there, but some people (or TV shows) really have a beef against the leaf and/or electric cars and try to put them in the most negative light as possible, usually saying outright lies when the truth is readily available.

this really does seem to be the case. I'm still not sure where all the hate is coming from. Maybe hate is too harsh a word, but it does feel like there is a concerted effort to paint as dismal a picture of EV's as possible and fear monger and doubt every step of the way. Oddly, I found this forum to be it's own worst enemy when I first came on board. I am glad to see that it appears that has changed. The trouble with forums like this is hyper analysis and for every one person writing something, there are 10 looking over everyone's shoulder, quietly making a long list of all the concerns, which results in a lot of folks getting unnecessarily overwhelmed and discouraged.

Something this new has such a huge hurdle to overcome. I think Nissan has done a stellar job putting out a car that is so well vetted that it can withstand the constant headwind of doubt, fear and out right maliciousness from so many angles. Virtually every concern I had gotten worked up about after reading on line forums, turns out to have melted away, revealing a mole hill where each mountain originally appeared. Range? plenty! Battery Life? looking pretty good so far, even for those doing frequent QC's! Reliability? Excellent!
economy? beyond my wildest dreams! Only more time will truly tell, but so far, this is the most amazing vehicle I have ever driven, hands down!

This car has the high demand it has despite all the bad press, hyper analysis and japan quake. Imagine how much faster the EV revolution could happen if we could somehow improve the noise to signal ratio of Op Ed articles! this technology truly offers a way off of foreign oil, a way out of exporting so much of our wealth, but not first without threatening the gravy train of some very wealthy and powerful people who want things to stay, just the way they are.

g

I agree that there is quite a bit of fear mongering and over analysis here at times but in no way would I call the LEAF "fully vetted". The EV drive is good but the entire user interface is very poor and thrown together with one of the worst NAV systems functionally by todays standards. There are many poor decisions made on the car from a user perspective that are almost too dumb to believe like the rear hatch warning indicator and other features. Almost all of Nissans other cars are far better and because they were rushed or cheap this car suffered some foolish mistakes. A modern EV should have stellar user interface and NAV not a cobbled together solution that is frustrating and inaccurate to the point it is often useless. Even basic items like the pull for the charge port were poorly implemented, these are basic no-brainer items but some off the bigger mistakes are really unexplainable.

What is wrong with the rear hatch warning indicator?

 

[Stanton]

Anyone who can't figure out WHY (some) people/organizations are ANTI EV needs to watch the documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car".
If you look at the early sales numbers vs. the Volt, there's obviously something attracting buyers to the Leaf (I know what they are for me, but that's not the point), and it can't just be price. The sales differential has grown (on average), and I expect that pattern to maintain going forward. In other words, I think the future is bright for the Leaf.

 

[ERG4ALL]

The EV drive is good but the entire user interface is very poor and thrown together with one of the worst NAV systems functionally by todays standards.

I believe that Nissan felt required to put in some sort of a NAV system because of the range anxiety issue (i.e. charging stations). However, until the infrastructure is further along, I'd just a soon that they saved the money and put it into more batteries. This is the first NAV system I've had and I don't use it. Well, I have used it once just to see how it worked. I found a new friend's house by putting in the address. However, their instructions to find their place were just as good. After all, the car is designed to be a metropolitan commuter car. I'm not going to be driving it in a strange city or going cross country in it.

The interface could use some work. For example, if the interface could remember your preferred driving screen after you satisfy the lawyers, I'd be happy. But this should be simple to solve, it's just software. I'm sure Nissan will get our feedback and improve the interface as time goes on. I love the car and am exceptionally happy with it and in no way would I express my desires so stridently that it would be considered "bashing" it.

 

[EVDRIVER]

from what I can tell, most negative reviews are by folks and media who expect the EV to function just like their ICE.
the EVs dont. they have specific and important advantages and ditto for shortcomings.
you cant put a virgin EV driver in front of a keyboard and expect him or her to write with perspective.
http://www.jewishjournal.com/rob_eshman/article/a_new_leaf_20110621/
this article is a prime example.
as was that OC Register article by the faith-based guy who hates all tax subsidies (ie just the EVs) but gladly uses the mortgage and property tax deduction.

It will take some time for the word to get around via enough Leafs, etc.
clean, very cheap to run, subsidized, great commuter car.

"The AC cuts 50% off the range" Wow, at what -30 below in the car?

 

[KeiJidosha]

The LEAF has room to improve. Slow charger, no % SOC meter, tyrannical nav system, weak regen. Improvements over time will bring in more buyers. Would the Prius still sell in it's Gen 1 form?

 

[cdub]

Anyone who can't figure out WHY (some) people/organizations are ANTI EV needs to watch the documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car".

Do you honestly think there is ANYONE on these forums who HASN'T seen that movie? That movie is probably why I'm buying a Leaf.

 

[Stanton]

Anyone who can't figure out WHY (some) people/organizations are ANTI EV needs to watch the documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car".

Do you honestly think there is ANYONE on these forums who HASN'T seen that movie? That movie is probably why I'm buying a Leaf.

...if you add "and not a Volt", then me too

 

[Train]

In my opinion, it has nothing to do with the press, stories, articles and anything written or reported on regarding the EV. It will succeed or fail on its own merits. The Leaf is basically a commuter car. You can't make it into something it is not. A "revolution" cannot be forced. It either will or will not happen based on practicality, value, and desire. There are a lot of football fans who love Division 1 college and NFL football. There aren't many UFL fans.

Infrastructure is a non starter if the car takes hours to charge for just a few miles. I am still quite puzzled by charge stations that are installed in convenience marts, Walgreens, etc. These are places one goes into for 5-10 minutes. The charge you'll receive will be insignificant. A couple miles, tops.

This fall, in CA, AZ, and other early roll out states, I believe you will see EV's for sale at MSRP on dealer lots. I know some here are going to be mortified and shocked but the passion and enthusiasm here is just not shared by 99% of drivers. They will not stand for waiting hours for a car to charge when away from home.

The analogy of running out of gas to EV's running out of charge is apples to oranges and innacurate. I understand there are a hundred thousand gas stations or more. But that's not the point. You can instantly give yourself another 300-400 miles of range in 5 minutes for a petrol vehicle. To park somewhere and eat at Jack in the Box while your car charges for four hours still only gives you what, 40-50 miles? So you walk around some mall, spend some money, there goes your fuel savings.

For now, they are great as commuter cars and the benefits of that should be touted. But there are shortcomings--range and charge time when away from home. To a person who owns a paid off car that is in good condition, it makes zero sense financially to buy another one, EV or otherwise.

Regardless of federal tax credits and state incentive, when the average potential buyer sees $35,700 on the sticker, and finds out it's more like $40,000 out the door for a car that looks similar to a Nissan Versa, many will walk away. Especially when that Versa fully loaded is about $18,000.