Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

[AndyH]

The average homeowner that is already living in an efficient house actually is not just 'accepting' this but they're seeking it out.

The section I bolded says it all, I think. The average homeowner isn't living in a highly energy efficient house, anywhere.

In the USA, certainly.

I should know, I was selling $2,500 Sun Frost 16 cu. ft. refrigerators that could run off 200W of PV panels and appropriate batteries more than two decades ago, to people living in off-grid homes that make Passive houses look like energy hogs

The Earthship I rented a few years back had a Sun Frost - really efficient and the quietest motor/compressor I've ever just barely heard. I've sized my off-grid power system (all but batteries stacked in the *&$@# garage) for the 1kWh consumption of my energy star fridge, but will replace that with a 24V Sun Frost when it's time for another fridge.

The off-grid market was entirely about maximizing energy efficiency, but such concerns made (and still makes) up only a small fraction of the market. For every person who's motivated by environmental ideology, there's 1,000 motivated by financial considerations, and until you can achieve critical mass by convincing them it makes financial sense, all you've got is a niche product. That's where they are now with home fuel cells, but they're certainly moving in the right direction.

I guess I'm encouraged that CHP and other efficient ways of doing things are finally visible on radar. While my personal goal is to get to a carbon negative/no fossil fuel/off-grid place I realize that most of our society isn't. It's nice to see these tools being accepted even without a price on carbon or acknowledgement of the externalities of our 'cheap' electricity.

 

[GRA]

The average homeowner that is already living in an efficient house actually is not just 'accepting' this but they're seeking it out.

The section I bolded says it all, I think. The average homeowner isn't living in a highly energy efficient house, anywhere.

In the USA, certainly.

I did specify 'average'. The average varies significantly from country to country.

I should know, I was selling $2,500 Sun Frost 16 cu. ft. refrigerators that could run off 200W of PV panels and appropriate batteries more than two decades ago, to people living in off-grid homes that make Passive houses look like energy hogs

The Earthship I rented a few years back had a Sun Frost - really efficient and the quietest motor/compressor I've ever just barely heard. I've sized my off-grid power system (all but batteries stacked in the *&$@# garage) for the 1kWh consumption of my energy star fridge, but will replace that with a 24V Sun Frost when it's time for another fridge.

These days all refrigerators have compressors I can't hear, but that's because I've lost most of my hearing :lol: . The Sunfrost's design is a case in point of an extremely niche product. For one thing, the 3-4" thick insulation means it won't fit in many standard refrigerator niches, and the fact that the very efficient and quiet compressor's on top instead of underneath, while terrific for efficiency, also means that people have to bend way down to get stuff out of the refrigerator, or else buy/build a storage cabinet/refrigerator base to raise it off the floor to a height that requires less bending, and which (again) may not fit under over-refrigerator cabinets. Not insoluble problems and ones that the average off-gridder will happily deal with to get the efficiency (and save them a bundle on panels and batteries, i.e. it makes financial sense for them to get one), but the price/payback time and hassle factor is not going to be worth it to the mainstream user living in a home built for conventional appliances, and who places a higher value on convenience features like door-mounted water/ice dispensers, automatic ice makers, auto-defrost, a height that doesn't require a lot of bending, etc.

 

[GRA]

Via GCC:

Quantum receives follow-on orders from Linde for retail dispensers to support California’s H2 infrastructure

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/04/20150427-quantum.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Part:

Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide has received multiple orders from Linde North America to develop and manufacture additional retail hydrogen fueling dispensers for the further development of hydrogen fueling infrastructure in California. The hydrogen dispensers are targeted to be delivered to and commissioned by Linde North America around the fourth quarter of 2015.

 

[AndyH]

In the USA, certainly.

I did specify 'average'. The average varies significantly from country to country.

It sure does. Most of the problems we really should be solving are global in nature though and we've got the most distance to travel in the quest for balance.

These days all refrigerators have compressors I can't hear, but that's because I've lost most of my hearing :lol: .

I was going to say 'I hear ya!' but, well, if you have a higher-pitched voice I might not. I figure in about 15 years I'll be ready for one of those newfangled Cummins multi-fuel refrigerators. :lol:

The Sunfrost's design is a case in point of an extremely niche product. For one thing, the 3-4" thick insulation means it won't fit in many standard refrigerator niches, and the fact that the very efficient and quiet compressor's on top instead of underneath, while terrific for efficiency, also means that people have to bend way down to get stuff out of the refrigerator, or else buy/build a storage cabinet/refrigerator base to raise it off the floor to a height that requires less bending, and which (again) may not fit under over-refrigerator cabinets. Not insoluble problems and ones that the average off-gridder will happily deal with to get the efficiency (and save them a bundle on panels and batteries, i.e. it makes financial sense for them to get one), but the price/payback time and hassle factor is not going to be worth it to the mainstream user living in a home built for conventional appliances, and who places a higher value on convenience features like door-mounted water/ice dispensers, automatic ice makers, auto-defrost, a height that doesn't require a lot of bending, etc.

That the convenience features are main sources of inefficiency appears to be lost on US consumers. The self-defrost feature in the freezer not only consumes energy but the temperature excursions shorten the storage time for food.

My energy star conventional fridge requires bending nearly every visit as the crispers and main shelf are/is low. Compared to a Sun Frost on a base cabinet, ergonomics and energy consumption are both worse though volume is greater and price is lower. Overall, I guess I'm one of the minority that prefers the smaller refrigerators I had in England, Germany, and Korea even before celebrating the lower electricity bill they allowed.

Since ecologists continue to remind us that there's nothing sustainable about the way we live, and as we're (humanity) using almost 2 Earth's worth of materials and services at this point, I think the clock's ticking down to a time of a significant 'correction' event. If I was the long-term guy at Sun Frost, I think I'd make some extra refrigerators and put them into safe storage for a bit...

 

[GRA]

Via GCC:

Toyota pops the hood on the technology of the fuel cell Mirai at SAE World Congress

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/04/20150429-mirai.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Technical details of the Mirai's fuel cell stack, details changes made from the FCHV-ADV cell (circa 2008) and supporting equipment as well as the fuel tanks. Part:

Toyota has been developing fuel cell technology for more than 20 years, culminating with the introduction of Mirai in December 2014. An major step along the way was the release of the “FCHV-adv” in 2008 (earlier post), which delivered major improvements in efficiency, driving range (more than double its predecssor), durability, and cold start capability, compared to its predecessor. Despite those improvements, further further reductions in size and cost as well as enhanced performance were necessary for commercial adoption. A major step toward addressing those challenges was Toyota’s development of the new FC stack used in Mirai—the first FC stack without a humidifying system.

The Mirai stack features an innovative cell flow field structure and membrane electrode and gas diffusion layer assembly (MEGA), delivering a compact, high performance unit. Other cost reduction measures incorporated by the new FC stack include reducing the amount of platinum in the catalyst by two-thirds and adopting a carbon nano-coating for the separator surface treatment.

The Polymer Electrolyte Fuel Cells (PEFCs) used in automotive applications enable low temperature start-up and operation, fast reaction speeds, and high current densities. However, reducing proton conductivity resistance to enable high performance requires maintaining humidity within the electrolyte membrane and catalyst layer (CL). Conventionally, this is handled by recirculating water from the FC stack air outlet to the FC stack air inlet through a humidifier.

To eliminate this subsystem, Toyota engineers developed an innovative integrated cell flow field structure and membrane electrode and gas diffusion layer assembly (MEGA) that self-humidifies.

The article goes into much more detail, most of which is way over my head.

 

[GRA]

I posted this in the Mirai thread, but since it refers to technical limits to fuel cell stack production, I also linked it here. Via ievs:

http://insideevs.com/toyota-mirai-production-ceiling-3000-units-per-year/

http://insideevs.com/toyota-mirai-production-ceiling-3000-units-per-year/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[AndyH]

I posted this in the Mirai thread, but since it refers to technical limits to fuel cell stack production, I also linked it here. Via ievs:

http://insideevs.com/toyota-mirai-production-ceiling-3000-units-per-year/

http://insideevs.com/toyota-mirai-production-ceiling-3000-units-per-year/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

WOT?! You mean Toyota would have to open a gigafactory to keep up? Clearly BEVs are superior then, right?

Tesla will need to open more "Gigafactories," in addition to the one planned as well as offering open sourcing of the technology, Musk said.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102637763

 

[GRA]

I posted this in the Mirai thread, but since it refers to technical limits to fuel cell stack production, I also linked it here. Via ievs:

http://insideevs.com/toyota-mirai-production-ceiling-3000-units-per-year/

http://insideevs.com/toyota-mirai-production-ceiling-3000-units-per-year/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

WOT?! You mean Toyota would have to open a gigafactory to keep up? Clearly BEVs are superior then, right?

Andy, I realize your tongue was firmly in your cheek, but the article quotes the chief Mirai engineer:

Both in terms of design and manufacturing technology, we need to improve. We need to achieve a drastic technological evolution. . . .

Part of the challenge is the sensitivity of making the fuel cell stack, the costly chemical processor that combines hydrogen and oxygen to make the electricity that runs the car.

The stack has 370 cells, each just 1.34 millimeters thick. Etching the conduit channels on each of the fragile cells is a time-consuming and complex process, Tanaka said. Going beyond 3,000 vehicles a year would require a breakthrough in the way they are manufactured.

This is not a question of scale up like the Gigafactory(s), it's a question of manufacturing process, and clearly they've still got work to do before this can be a mass market product. They are still at least one generation back of BEVs (we knew that), and it remains to be seen when/if they can get around this. I expect they will solve it, the only question is how much batteries may have improved in the interim.

 

[AndyH]

WOT?! You mean Toyota would have to open a gigafactory to keep up? Clearly BEVs are superior then, right?

Andy, I realize your tongue was firmly in your cheek, but the article quotes the chief Mirai engineer:

Both in terms of design and manufacturing technology, we need to improve. We need to achieve a drastic technological evolution. . . .

Part of the challenge is the sensitivity of making the fuel cell stack, the costly chemical processor that combines hydrogen and oxygen to make the electricity that runs the car.

The stack has 370 cells, each just 1.34 millimeters thick. Etching the conduit channels on each of the fragile cells is a time-consuming and complex process, Tanaka said. Going beyond 3,000 vehicles a year would require a breakthrough in the way they are manufactured.

This is not a question of scale up like the Gigafactory(s), it's a question of manufacturing process, and clearly they've still got work to do before this can be a mass market product. They are still at least one generation back of BEVs (we knew that), and it remains to be seen when/if they can get around this. I expect they will solve it, the only question is how much batteries may have improved in the interim.

Hey - dueling engineers. Yes, firmly in cheek and I understand who is credited with the quote, but if etching plates is slow, adding another operator and machine doubles output, yes? It's not the factory's floor space that winds new cells - it's the thousands of duplicate cell winding machines that improves throughput. Or... A 'breakthrough' in manufacturing could be either a way to make them faster, or another copy of their production space with people and machines...or both.

Frankly, I'd really like to see what they're doing with their plates. CNC machines should be able to pound them out by the dozens once they get the coding and processes down. I haven't been around fuel cell production, though, just aerospace machining on close-tolerance carbon fiber parts for military jets.

 

[GRA]

<snip>
The stack has 370 cells, each just 1.34 millimeters thick. Etching the conduit channels on each of the fragile cells is a time-consuming and complex process, Tanaka said. Going beyond 3,000 vehicles a year would require a breakthrough in the way they are manufactured.

This is not a question of scale up like the Gigafactory(s), it's a question of manufacturing process, and clearly they've still got work to do before this can be a mass market product. They are still at least one generation back of BEVs (we knew that), and it remains to be seen when/if they can get around this. I expect they will solve it, the only question is how much batteries may have improved in the interim.

Hey - dueling engineers. Yes, firmly in cheek and I understand who is credited with the quote, but if etching plates is slow, adding another operator and machine doubles output, yes? It's not the factory's floor space that winds new cells - it's the thousands of duplicate cell winding machines that improves throughput. Or... A 'breakthrough' in manufacturing could be either a way to make them faster, or another copy of their production space with people and machines...or both.

Frankly, I'd really like to see what they're doing with their plates. CNC machines should be able to pound them out by the dozens once they get the coding and processes down. I haven't been around fuel cell production, though, just aerospace machining on close-tolerance carbon fiber parts for military jets.[/quote] Sounds to me like it's a question of difficulty in maintaining the necessary tolerances during the machining, and high scrappage rates that would keep the costs high. But I'm not an engineer, nor do I play one on TV.

I read it as Toyota is undoubtedly losing a bundle on every car now and can't afford to do that in mass production, nor can they raise the price.

 

[AndyH]

Sounds to me like it's a question of difficulty in maintaining the necessary tolerances during the machining, and high scrappage rates that would keep the costs high. But I'm not an engineer, nor do I play one on TV.

I read it as Toyota is undoubtedly losing a bundle on every car now and can't afford to do that in mass production, nor can they raise the price.

I think you're probably pretty close to the truth. During my time at the aerospace composites factory, the one thing every single new project had in common was high scrap rates early in the project. It appears that the combination of the customer calling the company plus the accounting department's insistence that it would be good to ship good parts "really soon now" (tm) often provides just the right type of motivation for the project engineers.

Maybe Toyota will figure this out; maybe they won't. There are more than enough companies that are making fuel cell stacks and that continue to bring prices down. I'm not at all concerned about Toyota in the overall scheme of the transition to electric transportation.

 

[mbender]

...and in Japan the waiting queue for Mirai is already three years long! If you order Mirai now, delivery is expected in 2018.

I can't help but observe what an appropriate name they chose for this car!

 

[TonyWilliams]

I'm not at all concerned about Toyota in the overall scheme of the transition to electric transportation.

What the largest car company in the world does *is* important. They are very openly against EVs, and clearly don't yet have a mass production ready hydrogen product.

I'm convince we will also go smartly to electric power in personal transportation, as well as busses and short range trucks. Toyota is clearly not ready to be part of that evolution.

Of course, they aren't "betting the farm" either on hydrogen. With the hundred billion or more dollars that they have in the bank, all the hydrogen research that their company has ever done is just a rounding error in their bottom line.

Thankfully, most of the auto manufacturers are slowly moving toward EV, and very few... VERY, VERY FEW, have disabled that process to be sidetracked with hydrogen.

 

[AndyH]

I'm not at all concerned about Toyota in the overall scheme of the transition to electric transportation.

What the largest car company in the world does *is* important. They are very openly against EVs, and clearly don't yet have a mass production ready hydrogen product.

I'm convince we will also go smartly to electric power in personal transportation, as well as busses and short range trucks. Toyota is clearly not ready to be part of that evolution.

Of course, they aren't "betting the farm" either on hydrogen. With the hundred billion or more dollars that they have in the bank, all the hydrogen research that their company has ever done is just a rounding error in their bottom line.

Thankfully, most of the auto manufacturers are slowly moving toward EV, and very few... VERY, VERY FEW, have disabled that process to be sidetracked with hydrogen.

Yes, they're a large company. And yes, I realize there's plenty of emotion on various sides of light vehicle electrification. It doesn't matter about their budget - they're not the only group working to solve this problem. Just about every car company on the planet is working with hydrogen fuel cells and they appear to be sharing much/most of their work. Every minute they spend tweaking any part of the power system adds to the knowledge base for ALL EVs. The more efficient inverters we're driving today are a result of both BEV and FCEV work. Synergy's been working for all of us and I think it would be wise to allow that to continue.

 

[mbender]

With China forcing Toyota to build pure BEVs for their market (technically, for permission to build factories locally, in China), I'm hoping that if and when Toyota does see the writing on the wall that they will be able to "turn on a dime" and make high-quality BEVs, in volume, for the global market.

I don't know enough about it to say with any authority, but something tells me that the corporate culture in Japan will extend the time it takes for Toyota ('s executive team) to admit they've made a mistake and start playing catch-up. I agree that it's a big deal that Toyota hasn't really been committed to the BEV game since day one. The Mirai experiment may well go down in business history as a classic case-study along with New Coke!

 

[Slow1]

Yes, they're a large company. And yes, I realize there's plenty of emotion on various sides of light vehicle electrification. It doesn't matter about their budget - they're not the only group working to solve this problem. Just about every car company on the planet is working with hydrogen fuel cells and they appear to be sharing much/most of their work. Every minute they spend tweaking any part of the power system adds to the knowledge base for ALL EVs. The more efficient inverters we're driving today are a result of both BEV and FCEV work. Synergy's been working for all of us and I think it would be wise to allow that to continue.

Excellent point - if we consider the BEV and FCEV to essentially be the same once the DC power is available then the technology is highly complementary. Sure, some questions linger about regen and such, but there is a lot of overlap in there.

 

[finman100]

I'm only one customer out there, but I'm an ex-Toyota customer simply because of hydrogen. I would in a heart beat buy a Prius EV (my 10-year old hybrid version was a great car). I've moved on to all EV. Toyota has not. Sorry but my next longer range EV will be Tesla. I don't quite see Nissan doing longer range (with a network of chargers). Toyota is not even in the top 5 right now. What are they thinking? The math and physics do not pen out. Or pan out? Anyway, my money cannot go to Toyota when all-EV, non-hydrogen is here, is affordable, and is workable. People who enjoy gas stations must be crazy. that is exactly what hydrogen does. it keeps people doing the exact same thing with a different fuel.

Can hydrogen really pass muster and dis-obey laws of thermodynamics and physics? Really? And be as efficient (and simple!) as EVs with batteries?

Again, I'm only one customer, but...

Curt

 

[smkettner]

The Mirai experiment may well go down in business history as a classic case-study along with New Coke!

I was thinking Edsel myself.

 

[TonyWilliams]

The Mirai experiment may well go down in business history as a classic case-study along with New Coke!

I was thinking Edsel myself.

The Edsel didn't have to buy gasoline at $12.80 and $13.99 !!!

That's today's price for "H35" and "H70", respectively, at the local hydrogen station. Price quoted is "Gasoline Gallon Equivalent" for on kilogram.

The best part I like about the myriad or problems for Murai is that even the head of the program knows:

REPOSTED:

Both in terms of design and manufacturing technology, we (Toyota) need to improve. We need to achieve a drastic technological evolution. . . .

Part of the challenge is the sensitivity of making the fuel cell stack, the costly chemical processor that combines hydrogen and oxygen to make the electricity that runs the car.

The stack has 370 cells, each just 1.34 millimeters thick. Etching the conduit channels on each of the fragile cells is a time-consuming and complex process, Tanaka said. Going beyond 3,000 vehicles a year would require a breakthrough in the way they are manufactured."

 

[AndyH]

Care to cite a source for your $12-$13 number please? This bit of disinformation was presented well up thread - in the early 10 pages or so if I recall correctly.

We actually telephoned actual operational CA H2 filling stations and found that prices were about 1/3 of your number. This, and the fact that a FCEV travels twice as far on that 'gallon of gasoline equivalent' that seems to make the actual price per mile even lower.

I realize this lovely corner of the interwebz loves her circular debate practice, but we really have covered this a number of times already in this thread.


edit... well, that's another two hours of my life I won't get back... I can no longer find the posts early in this thread (late 2013?) where GRA and I talked about calling CA fuel stations to check H2 prices. I found posts on about page 60 that talked about the earlier phone calls, but cannot find the actual posts with the actual pump prices. I don't know if a mod moved them without notice, or if they were lost in a database crash. I think I remembered about $4 per kilo, which at about 2.2x more efficient than gasoline meant it was roughly equivalent to $2/gallon gasoline.

What I did find, however, is that Tony has continued to repeat his $13 claim repeatedly since the beginning of this thread - even when prices were presented and efficiency was discussed relative to gasoline. It's a nasty denier tactic to continue to repeat disinformation but clearly it works all too well in the world even when facts are so easy to find.
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=341043#p341043

I don't imagine that I'd want to drive some possible huge distance to fuel up the car every 200-300 miles, and pay the equivalent of $6 gallon gasoline for that inconvenience.

Nor would I. However - and this is a significant 'however' - $6 per for H2 is NOT 'equivalent' to $6/gal gasoline when the vehicle is 2.2 times more efficient than an ICE - that is equivalent to $3/gallon gasoline.

I just telephoned four stations in the greater LA area but only the folks in Newport Beach answered the phone. I was told that today there is no price at their pump - that it's sold only to folks that have FCEV and a fuel card.