Have we reached a plateau in battery technology ?

[k2msmith]

What battery capacity will the 2014 leaf come with ?- the magic number year for those majority of owners who started a lease on the 2011 model.

If battery technology will enable us to reach 200 miles in a price/performance/weight package that could be implemented on a model in the price range of the leaf, how long will it take to charge with affordable home-based equipment ?

Maybe the limiting factor is not so much the battery capacity but the charge system. If it takes 6-7 hours to charge our current system (on 220V system), does that mean it will take at least 14 hours (charge cycle is non-linear) to fully charge a "200 mile" battery ?

I'm hopeful the charge rates increase too. My Macbook Pro battery is much longer life than the previous generation and seems to charge twice as fast.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

IMHO, the limiting factor is mostly psychological. The current Leaf exceeds the average need for a second car for a huge number of households, I've heard the number is 60 million and the charger is plenty fast as well. the biggest leap will have to come in mindset. Most people vastly over estimate how far they drive and have aversion to change. The niche the Leaf currently fills it fills very well already and it's just a matter of time before word gets out.

I'm guessing that future iterations may have more than one range option, offering a shorter range, say 50 miles, giving a more economical option for those who need less while also offering a beefed up, maybe 200+ range, attempting to better fill the needs of a single car owner who can justify spending more to avoid having to own two cars. A faster charger will be especially helpful for someone who wishes to have the Leaf as their only car.

Since there is a fortune to be made for those who figure out how to increase density and lower cost, there is incentive like never before. Folks at places like MIT are already reporting breakthroughs that will take a few years to work their way down the pipeline to the consumer, I expect there to be several more breakthroughs before the technology plateaus.

 

[Volusiano]

I thought I read from another thread that Nissan has announced an improved version of the current one, with twice the energy density, slated for 2015 production.

 

[surfingslovak]

I thought I read from another thread that Nissan has announced an improved version of the current one, with twice the energy density, slated for 2015 production.

http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/ariel-schwartz/sustainability/nissan-claims-it-can-double-ev-battery-range-2015" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They also said that only evolutionary changes are to be expected for the next three years, but I can't find that quote.

 

[SanDust]

I thought I read from another thread that Nissan has announced an improved version of the current one, with twice the energy density, slated for 2015 production.

Yes, nickel manganese cobalt or NMC. Could be some IP issues since Argonne Labs holds patents to this technology.

 

[Sasparilla]

We're nowhere close to a plateau in battery technology.

I remember, before the Volt and the Leaf were finally delivered, both companies had mentioned they were already testing batteries with twice the energy density of what would be in the Volt / Leaf. This increase in capacity as well as increases in durability are expected to continue for the foreseeable future - unfortunately we have to wait for the next generation to see the improvement, so it'll seem slow, but it'll happen with every generation for a while.

Now, will Nissan just keep the same amount of battery in the Leaf and give us double the range when Gen 2 launches? I doubt it, since the biggest factor holding these vehicles back is battery cost. I'd guess Nissan might go for a 150 mile range instead of 100 - they'll reduce the size of the battery, reduce the cost but increase the range (so you really can get 100 miles in most conditions). For GM they'll just keep the 40 mile range and use half the battery they used to need in the Gen 1 Volt - just cut the price of the battery.

As for charging, the 2013 Leaf will (supposedly) double the L2 charge rate - so all of a sudden a 150 or 200 mile battery (with the Generation 2 Leaf whenever it launches) wouldn't be a big deal to charge. Just my $0.02.

 

[smkettner]

Yes I think it will be ten years before any dramatic change actually comes to market.
Best we can hope for in the next five to ten years is a lower cost of current technology.
JMHO.

 

[SanDust]

Yes I think it will be ten years before any dramatic change actually comes to market.
Best we can hope for in the next five to ten years is a lower cost of current technology.

They've already announced doubling the energy density in the next four years. Isn't that dramatic?

 

[smkettner]

Sounds like lab work, not a new Leaf range estimate.
And at what cost?

I do hope it moves quicker but I have my doubts that it actually gets in a vehicle at a reasonable price in much less than ten years.

I mean we have to wait until 2013 to get 6.6 kW charging. These things move so slowly.

 

[Yodrak]

It does unless the charging current is increased, yes. If the energy capacity of the battery increases, but the energy delivery rate remains the same, it will take longer to fill the battery.

If it takes 6-7 hours to charge our current system (on 220V system), does that mean it will take at least 14 hours (charge cycle is non-linear) to fully charge a "200 mile" battery ?

 

[SanDust]

Sounds like lab work, not a new Leaf range estimate.
And at what cost?

They're talking about doubling the energy density at the same cost, so they could double the range or half the battery pack cost or anything in between. The cells should also be more stable and hence safer.

I suspect Nissan has these cells in testing now. Some of the technology in these new cells is already in both the Volt's and the Leaf's battery pack. A kind of taste if you will. Keep in mind that the batteries we're using in the Leaf today were probably ready in 2007, so we're already four years into a new cycle. Note that this announcement of the doubled capacity is from 2009. http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/11/nissan-nmc-20091129.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You also know it's real if you look at GM and LG Chem are doing in the area. They've licensed what seems to be the same or similar technology from Argonne Labs, which holds the basic patents on the technology. http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-01-07/news/ct-met-argonne-battery-20110107_1_cathode-material-argonne-national-laboratory-battery-technology" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; The same day GM and LG Chem licensed the technology from Argonne, GM made an investment in Envia, a battery materials startup. In what has to be "not a coincidence", at the same time Envia announced it was releasing its cathode material using the Argonne technology for testing. http://enviasystems.com/downloads/Press_Release_HDCathode.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; In one of these interesting twists of fate, the Chairman of Envia was Bob Stempel, who was the father of the EV1, and whose demise as CEO resulted in his successor killing off the EV1 program in one of those corporate activities akin, in the ancient world, to tearing down your predecessor's statues.

 

[planet4ever]

If it takes 6-7 hours to charge our current system (on 220V system), does that mean it will take at least 14 hours (charge cycle is non-linear) to fully charge a "200 mile" battery ?

It does unless the charging current is increased, yes. If the energy capacity of the battery increases, but the energy delivery rate remains the same, it will take longer to fill the battery.

All quite true, but you are asking the wrong question. Will your daily mileage double just because you have a 200 mile battery? I think most people on this board are finding that the current range is adequate for their daily requirement. Where we want the extra range is for the occasional longer trip; the one for which we currently have to revert to our dinosaur car.

If I am right, and I know I am for my personal situation, it follows that the daily charge time would not increase even if the delivery rate remains the same. We would only have to plan ahead a bit more for the longer trips.

Actually, of course, it doesn't look like it will be a problem at all. Most people have a charging dock which can already handle twice the current that the LEAF can pull. And I can almost guarantee that a LEAF with a 200 mile battery will have at least the faster 6.6kW charger that Ford is coming out with next year and Nissan will "probably" make standard a year later. The only people pinched at all, other than those charging on 120v, are those like me who currently have 12A or 16A EVSEs, and as I just said, I don't see it as a problem. Anyone who does (including the 120v folks) can simply upgrade to a faster EVSE.

The bottom line is that your charging time won't double, in fact it will be cut in half most days!

Ray

 

[TickTock]

I suspect even 20 more miles will open this car to many more people. I, for example, feel compelled to top off my 80% charge each morning to ~90%. With a 46 mile round trip, I get the battery warning message about 1 mile from home with 80% charge. Not a big deal since I use the climate control timer to do it automatically, but just a little more capacity would offer some comfort. However, I think the number of people with 80+ mile daily use is significantly lower. IMO, you start to get to diminishing returns once you get much above a posted 150 mile range (~80 mile realistic no-stress useful range).

 

[mwalsh]

What battery capacity will the 2014 leaf come with ?- the magic number year for those majority of owners who started a lease on the 2011 model.

As of right now, I'm thinking the battery will be the same form factor as the current one, but increased density allowing for 150 miles LA4/100 miles real world.

Where am I getting this notion from? Well, that kind of range is what's being rumored for the next EV we'll be seeing from Nissan (the Infiniti sedan). And if they're saying that the Infiniti is going to be based on LEAF underpinnings, then you sort of have to assume that it'll contain the same pack. Though abundance of caution makes me acknowledge that they could be doing it by adding more modules.

 

[Herm]

Though abundance of caution makes me acknowledge that they could be doing it by adding more modules.

They cant add more series modules because the voltage would get too high, economical semiconductor limitations of the inverters, plus you may have to rewind the motors and they are at the optimum 1 turn per wind now.. but perhaps they could change each module from a 2s2p configuration to a 2s3p (increase capacity by 1/3) or even 2s4p if they are really ambitious. Most likely they will just increase the ampacity of each cell. One advantage of going from 2s2p to a 2s4p is that they could offer both sizes in the same battery case, the bigger pack would be an extra cost option. The battery case in the normal range option would be half empty and much lighter.

Nissan could also do the same thing that Toyota is doing and actually switch modules in/out as they become spent, that might not be a bad way to do it.

 

[ERG4ALL]

If they double capacity of the battery, I suspect that the charging times will remain the same. The circuits that Nissan has recommended for the EVSE station are 40A, 240V. That equates roughly to 9,600W. Those new models will more than likely come with the 6.6 kW on-board chargers. Thus, the circuit with some safety over capacity should be able to support the 6.6 kW chargers. Currently we are allowed to use approximately 21 kWh of the battery. If that is doubled to 42 kWh, then the 6.6 kW charger ought to be able to charge that amount in a little over six hours.

 

[Desertstraw]

People who bet against better technology always lose. The range problem will be solved in a short time.

In the first decade of TV, everybody wanted color but nobody knew how to do it. They actually sold plastic screen covers, blue on top and green on the bottom to give the illusion of color. In the second decade they found a way that made TV sets more expensive. Now we have at least four ways, cathode ray, LCD, LED, and plasma. Focusing on lithium is analogous to focusing on cathode ray technology, which is now gone. Technology moves more rapidly now then back down. I am confident that leasing was better than buying a Leaf.

 

[adric22]

Here's the way I see it.

The Battery technology we have now is "good enough." What I mean is that there is no reason to delay production of EV's any longer and blame it on battery technology. Truth be told, Lead Acid batteries from 15 years ago were plenty suitable, albeit at a reduced market for EV's due to shorter range, and shorter battery life.

That being said, it seems like I'm hearing about some sort of breakthrough every week, and that they new technology is only 5 years away from production. I imagine many of these technologies will fizzle out due to various problems using them in the real world. But surely at least one of these breakthroughs will make it into production. Some of these have promised a 2x improvement in range, where others have promised a 10x improvement. Even a 2x improvement at the same or lower production cost of current EV's would be enough to change the landscape of the EV. Just think, you could use half the batteries to get the current 100 mile Leaf, reducing the cost of the vehicle tremendously. Or you could have double the range for the same price, blowing away all that range anxiety that the EV-haters always talk about. Not only that, but a 200 mile range with the option of quick-charging makes longer trips in an EV seem actually possible.

So, the way I see it... if we have hit a plateau, then oh well. EVs will still continue to be sold with current technology. More mass production should bring the cost down over time meaning more EVs will hit mainstream consumers. There's no stopping the movement now.

So the only thing a jump in battery technology would do is add additional momentum to what is already happening.

 

[k2msmith]

IMHO, the limiting factor is mostly psychological. The current Leaf exceeds the average need for a second car for a huge number of households,...

I agree. In fact for some areas like Santa Barbara, a Leaf would fulfill even a larger percentage of driving needs.

The question this discussion prompts then is: Will evolution of battery technology win the race against charge infrastructure expansion. ? The 200 mile battery might satisfy most single car owners. if 200 miles is the longest roundtrip distance that 95% of the drivers out there will traverse in one day, then remote charge stations will not get that much use for that type of owner, unless you want to take a long trip, which for most people, doesn't happen nearly as often. Where does that leave charge stations ?

 

[smkettner]

That leaves level 2 for attracting customers with a few pennies of free energy or L3 on interstates between cities charging a modest regulated fee.
JMHO.