GM : battery cell cost $145/kWh now, $100/kWh by 2018

[lorenfb]

1. "When you are sitting at a light not moving, the inverter in the LEAF wastes about 1 kW of electricity constantly from the battery. "

Where did you 'pull' this from?

It's pretty well-known: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=13273&start=360#p332767 .

How about what test method was used. Have you personally measured this, e.g. LeafSpy?
And this 1KW loss is ALL attributable to switching losses, right? There're no losses in the motor
itself, i.e. it's 100% efficient, right? This sounds like your tickle charging hyperbole.

So in stop-and-go traffic, one could significantly reduce the Leaf's range, right?

No, the 1 kW draw is the minimum power draw of the drivetrain (without regenerating power from the kinetic energy of the vehicle), so, no, your assertion is absurd.

So after 20 hours of stop-and-go traffic, e.g. major traffic jam, what capacity is left in the Leaf, assuming
no re-gen? And all that energy loss (20kWh) is the result of switching losses, right?

2. This proposed technology is seven years away, i.e. that's further out than the proposed Model E.

I guess you didn't read the presentation I just provided. These developments are being rolled out in real-time and are ahead of schedule:

O.K., please provide a near term (next two years) vehicle where the OEM has announced the use
of this technology. Surely given the way Tesla pre-announces, they would have announced
or forecasted improved efficiencies/ranges the result of new technologies. Furthermore, the
cost estimate is based on 100K/yr units which no BEV has yet to achieve and may not in the next
two years.

 

[evnow]

OT.

Now back to GM price announcement.

 

[RegGuheert]

This article confirms that the Chevy Volt is using NMC batteries made by LG Chem. What I didn't know is that 3M holds the patents for several NMC structures which LG Chem is now licensing. Further, Jeff Dahn was the inventor (I guess his contract gave patent rights to 3M or something):

LG Chem has been granted with a license by 3M to use its US Patents 6,964,828; 7,078,128; 6,660,432; 8,241,791; and 8,685,565. The agreement allows the use of the equivalent patents in other countries such as China, Japan, Taiwan, Korea and in some countries in Europe.

The license began during 3M’s collaboration with Professor Jeff Dahn at Dalhousie University regarding the nickel-manganese-cobalt-oxide technology in which 3M was able to develop a wide range of different compositions of the material. These new compositions include “NMC 111 (for energy and power); NMC 442 (for energy and power); and an optimized high-power NMC 11 composition with high porosity.” Before the agreement took shape, LG Chem had already licensed the NMC technology at Argonne National Laboratory.

Jeff Dahn repeatedly pops up as a key innovator when it comes to EV battery technology. Very impressive!

I wonder if Nissan is also licensing one of the 3M structures or if they are using a different one.

 

[edatoakrun]

...Now back to GM price announcement.

The source of these reports seems to be a pdf produced by GM (anyone have the direct Link?) widely copied, as here:

http://i1.wp.com/evobsession.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GM-Battery-Electric-Vehicles-2.png

Looks to me like GM probably is stating that it has concluded an agreement for a fixed price for cells over the next ~four years.

Impossible to say whether GM's supplier is making a profit today, or even will make much profit by 2019, at ~$145/kWh.

The initial small number of packs GM probably has agreed to buy, probably means profitability at that price over that time frame is not the cell suppliers primary concern.

Developing the processes over the next ~four years required to produce at lower cost when and if GM and other automakers ever decide to shift a significant percentage of its vehicle production from IC to BE (GM's price projections in the chart from ~2020 on) would likely be crucial to GMs supplier.

In all probability, no auto manufacturer has made a dime selling BEVs, yet.

I doubt many battery producers have been trying to maximize their profit margin on their current cell sales either.

 

[evnow]

In an interview I posted sometime back, Patio was saying they pass on cost savings. Definitely LG is playing the long term game. They have become the defacto source for everyone but Tesla.

 

[ydnas7]

In an interview I posted sometime back, Patio was saying they pass on cost savings. Definitely LG is playing the long term game. They have become the defacto source for everyone but Tesla.

Then why does LG continue to lose market share?

the world's top five plug in cars
Nissan Leaf - AESC
Tesla Model S - Panasonic
BYD Qin - BYD
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV - Mits/ Yuasa
BMW i3 - Samsung


http://ev-sales.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/world-top-10-august-2015.html

 

[GRA]

In an interview I posted sometime back, Patio was saying they pass on cost savings. Definitely LG is playing the long term game. They have become the defacto source for everyone but Tesla.

Then why does LG continue to lose market share?

the world's top five plug in cars
Nissan Leaf - AESC
Tesla Model S - Panasonic
BYD Qin - BYD
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV - Mits/ Yuasa
BMW i3 - Samsung


http://ev-sales.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/world-top-10-august-2015.html

I'm not sure they are:

Panasonic Leads in EV Batteries With 39% Market Share, But Others Aim for Its Crown

http://www.luxresearchinc.com/news-and-events/press-releases/read/panasonic-leads-ev-batteries-39-market-share-others-aim-its

BOSTON, MA – August 18, 2015 – Panasonic is currently the runaway leader in the nascent battery market for electric vehicles, but LG Chem has the potential to overtake it in what will be a $30 billion market in 2020, according to Lux Research.

Panasonic’s 39% share of the battery market for plug-in vehicles makes it the leading supplier, but its reliance on a single deal with EV leader Tesla leaves it vulnerable. Its lead rival LG Chem has already signed up large automakers including General Motors, Volkswagen, Daimler, and Ford. In the event of a surge in sales of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) by the German manufacturers, LG Chem would only need to win over Japan’s Nissan to topple Panasonic.

“The battery world’s big three – Panasonic, LG Chem, and Samsung SDI – are engaged in an all-out war for market share in the emerging plug-in vehicle opportunity, yet their strategies differ wildly,” said Cosmin Laslau, Lux Research Senior Analyst and lead author of the report titled, “Watch the Throne: How LG Chem and Others Can Take Panasonic’s EV Battery Crown by 2020. . . .”

I did find a cleantechnica article quoting this paper shortly afterwards, which noted that M-B had just signed with Panasonic, so that evens things out a bit. But LG Chem could well take over from AESC with Renault-Nissan.

 

[LKK]

Do you think we will see batterys from LG in the Leaf?

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0PR0MG20150717