Does Trump's Election Spell the End for Federal EV Subsidies?

[wwhitney]

The guy's response, to whom I've never met before, quips, "What will you do when all the coal plants get shut down?"

Breathe easier--literally.

Cheers, Wayne

 

[Durandal]

The guy's response, to whom I've never met before, quips, "What will you do when all the coal plants get shut down?"

Breathe easier--literally.

Cheers, Wayne

:lol: :lol: NICE!

 

[powersurge]

Hello Durandal,

Thank you for the nice word... I am a nice guy when you get to know me. Sometimes masses of people who are forced to communicate only by the written word can knock heads...
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In answer to the gentleman who opposes the coal generators- Don't expect the coal generators to slow down ever until we have better fuel sources. The whole world gets electricity from coal. We will be using coal into the distant future...

Also, coal is much more desirable to the use of petroleum, which will run out in the near future. When the oil runs out, there will be worldwide problems, including famine, millions of deaths, war over the remaining oil, and we will need to revert to back to the steam engine and horses.
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PS - anyone familiar with the concept of "Peak Oil" and the writings of M. King Hubbert? We could spend years discussing this topic....

 

[Durandal]

Also, coal is much more desirable to the use of petroleum, which will run out in the near future. When the oil runs out, there will be worldwide problems, including famine, millions of deaths, war over the remaining oil, and we will need to revert to back to the steam engine and horses.
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PS - anyone familiar with the concept of "Peak Oil" and the writings of M. King Hubbert? We could spend years discussing this topic....

It's certainly hard to spill large quantities of coal into the ocean. lol. Also a single point of control vs oil. With the electrical grid, it can be as clean or as dirty as we care for it to be. For myself, I plan on investing in 2-3kW of solar so that I can charge my Leaf and do a few other things on solar versus grid tie power. I likely will run it independently from the rest of the house instead of doing grid-tie.

I'm quite familiar with Peak Oil, I used to spend many hours and days at The Oil Drum, a site that used to get a lot of traffic in the 2004-2009 time period. While there are still new oil fields being found, the fact that we live on a planet that has finite resources is certainly something that is logical, yet escapes the minds of many.

 

[LeftieBiker]

The big problem with coal is that it puts vast amounts of stored carbon directly into the atmosphere, along with lots of soot except in the most modern plants (then it's just all the carbon dioxide) and causing the overall climate to warm inexorably. Unless, of course, one is a climate denier. In that case Jesus will likely fix it, one way or another.

 

[abasile]

Unless, of course, one is a climate denier. In that case Jesus will likely fix it, one way or another.

Yes, I've seen that sort of attitude, and as a Christian, it really bothers me. One would have to overlook the whole concept of Biblical stewardship to assume that the way we treat the earth has no consequences. It is our job as humans to care for the amazingly special planet that we have been given.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

^ like ^

Further OT, speaking of coal the Netflix show The Crown is interesting, I had never heard about that incident in London in 1952.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

(as it is, Fall was eliminated by Global Warming this year it seems...)

Perhaps it seems that way to you, but you cannot sense a temperature difference of only 0.4 degrees Celsius above the average:

The unseasonably-warm temperatures in NA this fall are due to two factors: 1) The polar vortex is pushing incredibly cold weather to Russia, making it warmer here and 2) we just had one of the largest El Ninos on record. Those are two things we can feel.

I only mirror a common misconception for the region buoyed by 4 straight days smashing record high temps for the region. I only hope Summer weather is this nice...

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Unless, of course, one is a climate denier. In that case Jesus will likely fix it, one way or another.

Yes, I've seen that sort of attitude, and as a Christian, it really bothers me. One would have to overlook the whole concept of Biblical stewardship to assume that the way we treat the earth has no consequences. It is our job as humans to care for the amazingly special planet that we have been given.

this is only one example of "surrender to God and all is forgiven" there are many. granted the Church has changed and lessened its "fire and brimstone" approach but its not like they had a choice now did they?

 

[WetEV]

Perhaps it seems that way to you, but you cannot sense a temperature difference of ...
The unseasonably-warm temperatures in NA this fall are due to two factors: 1) The polar vortex is pushing incredibly cold weather to Russia, making it warmer here and 2) we just had one of the largest El Ninos on record. Those are two things we can feel.

I only mirror a common misconception for the region buoyed by 4 straight days smashing record high temps for the region. I only hope Summer weather is this nice...

Not being at 16,000 feet altitude, I tend to not look at the UAH temperature estimate. And yes, the polar vortex has shifted into Asia.

Down on the surface, where temperatures are measured (0.91C warmer) rather than estimated, things are somewhat more interesting. For example:

The Arctic is off the charts hot, sea ice in both Arctic and Antarctic waters is at a record low for the date. Global sea ice is "About 6.9 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 mean."

Yes incredibly cold weather in Russia, but the Arctic as a whole is about 6C/10F over the average.

This brings up an amusing speculation. Suppose this not only continues, but gets worse. The Antarctic keeps shedding sea ice, then sheds a big hunk or two of ice shelf, and some of the ice sheets starts falling into the ocean. The Arctic maintains a low pressure, off the charts warm pattern all winter, melts fast in spring and is ice free next summer. Weather patterns worldwide are wonky and wild. What will Trump and the Republicans say and do? Hmm... Maybe the EV subsidies are safe after all. Perhaps a carbon tax, as part of a tax reform? Or will they push their heads deeper into the sand and scream "Chinese Plot!"??

Oh, but don't worry. The experts mostly tell us that the Arctic will not be ice free until 2040 at the earliest. And of course, experts are never wrong... :roll:

 

[abasile]

Unless, of course, one is a climate denier. In that case Jesus will likely fix it, one way or another.

Yes, I've seen that sort of attitude, and as a Christian, it really bothers me. One would have to overlook the whole concept of Biblical stewardship to assume that the way we treat the earth has no consequences. It is our job as humans to care for the amazingly special planet that we have been given.

this is only one example of "surrender to God and all is forgiven" there are many. granted the Church has changed and lessened its "fire and brimstone" approach but its not like they had a choice now did they?

What so many seem to forget is that forgiveness does not necessarily erase the Earthly consequences of bad choices. I don't want future generations to have to inherit a mess.

 

[RegGuheert]

The Arctic is off the charts hot, sea ice in both Arctic and Antarctic waters is at a record low for the date. Global sea ice is "About 6.9 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 mean."

What is your fear related to the loss of global sea ice? Are humans or any other species impacted by such a change? Is there ANY evidence that this is related to the activity of man?

Yes incredibly cold weather in Russia, but the Arctic as a whole is about 6C/10F over the average.

That sounds like a pleasant improvement in conditions for any creature unfortunate enough to live in the arctic. Meanwhile, many MILLIONS of people in Russia are suffering from the extreme cold and snow there.

The Northern Hemisphere is sitting right at record snowcover for this time of the year:

This brings up an amusing speculation. Suppose this not only continues, but gets worse. The Antarctic keeps shedding sea ice, then sheds a big hunk or two of ice shelf, and some of the ice sheets starts falling into the ocean.

Now that is some amusing speculation considering that Antarctica is GAINING more ice than it is shedding:

Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data (2003–08) show mass gains from snow accumulation exceeded discharge losses by 82 ± 25 Gt a–1, reducing global sea-level rise by 0.23 mm a–1. European Remote-sensing Satellite (ERS) data (1992–2001) give a similar gain of 112 ± 61 Gt a–1.

At the same time, Greenland is gaining ice at a record pace this year (and last year was very average):

The Arctic maintains a low pressure, off the charts warm pattern all winter, melts fast in spring and is ice free next summer. Weather patterns worldwide are wonky and wild.

Hahahahahaha!!

So please quit with the ridiculous, baseless scare mongering while the rest of us enjoy the beautiful Fall weather this year. Unfortunately, a cold front just blew in here about one hour ago.

 

[DanCar]

I'm happy the super cold regions of our planet are getting warmer. This means more life. I know the people of Siberia are dreaming of global warming. My wife is from that region. Millions of years ago, during the age of the dinosaurs CO2 was at 2000 ppm. Today it is only at 400 ppm.
https://plus.google.com/u/1/+DanielCardenas/posts/XEcvUsvhbuB

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html

 

[trucklover32]

A little bit off topic of your question.....but it still addresses the "concern" your question originally posed.

According to Elon Musk himself, live on stage, the end of Federal EV subsidies will actually BENEFIT Tesla. While I found this surprising, his explanation actually makes perfect sense. So to answer your question, most major car manufactures are using electric vehicles to offset their CAFE ratings. To that end, Tesla is the only company that is a PURE electric vehicle manufacturer and ending Federal EV subsidies would actually help their bottom line. So in short, I HOPE Trump ends Federal EV subsidies, because Tesla would massively benefit. And if we are being honest to our selves, Tesla is THE leading EV company.

Skip to 2:05 to hear Elon Musk explain why federal (state and international) subsidies are actually BAD for Tesla.

https://youtu.be/XT4BxI18B2I

 

[edatoakrun]

...According to Elon Musk himself, live on stage, the end of Federal EV subsidies will actually BENEFIT Tesla. While I found this surprising, his explanation actually makes perfect sense...
https://youtu.be/XT4BxI18B2I

When I first heard Musk make that claim, I wondered if anyone would actually believe it...

It's impossible to predict what policy choices the Trumpists will make, but at least one faction wants to make Musk their poster-boy for corporate welfare.

Eliminating the much-more-expensive renewable energy tax credit, rather than the EV TC, seems to be their priority, at the moment:

Tesla CEO becomes target after Trump election

A conservative group is targeting Elon Musk, the founder and CEO of luxury electric carmaker Tesla, by launching a lobbying campaign aimed at divesting Musk's clean energy "empire" of all federal subsidies.

The group Citizens for the Republic, a conservative grassroots organization that espouses the ideals of former President Ronald Reagan, accuses Musk's companies, including SolarCity, Tesla, and SpaceX, of receiving well over $5 billion in taxpayer support.

The grouped launched the campaign a few days before Tesla shareholders on Thursday decided to merge the carmaker with the solar panel firm SolarCity. Musk said the deal would make Tesla dealers a one-stop shop for low-emission transportation and clean electric power and battery storage...

they will specifically target the Investment Tax Credit for solar panels that Congress extended last December for five years...

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tesla-ceo-becomes-target-after-trump-election/article/2607770

 

[WetEV]

The Arctic is off the charts hot, sea ice in both Arctic and Antarctic waters is at a record low for the date. Global sea ice is "About 6.9 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 mean."

What is your fear related to the loss of global sea ice?

Not directly, but through the effect on weather patterns from the loss of Arctic sea ice. Like the Arctic vortex recentering over Asia or North America, as it has this year.

Are humans or any other species impacted by such a change?

Duh.

Is there ANY evidence that this is related to the activity of man?

The burning of coal, natural gas, oil, wood, peat and the clearing of land has put a lot of CO2 into the atmosphere. About half is still there.

Unprecedented in the past 800,000 years.

Do you have any realistic doubt that humans have changed the CO2 level of the atmosphere?

Do you have any realistic doubt that changing the CO2 level will affect the climate?

This brings up an amusing speculation. Suppose this not only continues, but gets worse. The Antarctic keeps shedding sea ice, then sheds a big hunk or two of ice shelf, and some of the ice sheets starts falling into the ocean. The Arctic maintains a low pressure, off the charts warm pattern all winter, melts fast in spring and is ice free next summer. Weather patterns worldwide are wonky and wild.

Hahahahahaha!!

We will see who gets the last laugh.

 

[abasile]

...According to Elon Musk himself, live on stage, the end of Federal EV subsidies will actually BENEFIT Tesla. While I found this surprising, his explanation actually makes perfect sense...

When I first heard Musk make that claim, I wondered if anyone would actually believe it...

While I don't go as far as to agree that ending federal EV subsidies would benefit Tesla, I don't think this would be too detrimental to Tesla in the long run, either. The $7500 tax credit is going to get phased out for Tesla anyway, so ending it now would avoid the situation where other EV manufacturers' cars get the credit and Tesla vehicles don't.

Eliminating the much-more-expensive renewable energy tax credit, rather than the EV TC, seems to be their priority, at the moment

This would certainly put a drag on the solar business, but wouldn't be fatal thanks to rapid reductions in costs. PV panels are getting a lot cheaper. Changes to state/regional net metering policies can be much more damaging, as we witnessed in Nevada when the PUC there basically killed the residential solar market. While the Powerwall and other storage systems offer a way around this, at additional cost of course, what happens at the state level seems more important for now.

I really like Tesla's solar roof concept. Creating a premium, fashionable roofing product with built in solar PV could be a real winner and potentially help Tesla's solar division (formerly SolarCity) to weather a possible removal of the renewable energy tax credit.

In any case, I do hope that the federal EV and solar incentives remain in place, especially since our government continues to (wrongly) subsidize fossil fuels. We'll see.

 

[edatoakrun]

...While I don't go as far as to agree that ending federal EV subsidies would benefit Tesla, I don't think this would be too detrimental to Tesla in the long run, either. The $7500 tax credit is going to get phased out for Tesla anyway, so ending it now would avoid the situation where other EV manufacturers' cars get the credit and Tesla vehicles don't...

Other manufactures are far less dependent than TSLA is on the TC for the simple reason that the vast majority of their vehicle sales do not qualify.

And since PHEVs as well as BEVs qualify for the TC, several other manufacturers may actually exceed their quotas (If the Trumpists don't kill the TC earlier) and begin to have their subsidies phase out at about the same time (or before) it happens to TSLA.

 

[trucklover32]

...According to Elon Musk himself, live on stage, the end of Federal EV subsidies will actually BENEFIT Tesla. While I found this surprising, his explanation actually makes perfect sense...

When I first heard Musk make that claim, I wondered if anyone would actually believe it...

While I don't go as far as to agree that ending federal EV subsidies would benefit Tesla, I don't think this would be too detrimental to Tesla in the long run, either. The $7500 tax credit is going to get phased out for Tesla anyway, so ending it now would avoid the situation where other EV manufacturers' cars get the credit and Tesla vehicles don't.

Elon Musk wasn't just referring to the $7500 tax credit. He was MOSTLY referring to the ZEV credits that are sold by Tesla. If you haven't heard of that, its discussed at the link below. Basically Tesla has no use for ZEV credits so it sells them.....but for 50 cents on the dollar. Other car companies like Ford and GM use the ZEV credits to offset their other vehicles, such as SUVs. They get 100% of the ZEV credit because...they don't see them to other car companies.

https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevcredits/2012zevcredits.htm

V/R,
James D.

 

[edatoakrun]

Off topic:

...Elon Musk wasn't just referring to the $7500 tax credit. He was MOSTLY referring to the ZEV credits that are sold by Tesla. If you haven't heard of that, its discussed at the link below. Basically Tesla has no use for ZEV credits so it sells them.....but for 50 cents on the dollar. Other car companies like Ford and GM use the ZEV credits to offset their other vehicles, such as SUVs. They get 100% of the ZEV credit because...they don't see them to other car companies...

I don't know why Musk chose to misrepresent the facts in his statements, as you have summarized them.

Tesla sells ZEV credits, which it receives for free, for whatever the market determines their value to be, just as Nissan and all other sellers of ZEV credits do.

And without the ~$600 million of income TSLA has received from ZEV credit sales, including the large quantity of credits TSLA received for fraudulently claiming rapid refueling capability for the Model S, TSLA might have failed already.

I suggest you review the thread on-topic:

CARB ZEV credits for rapid refueling, gone in 2018?

="edatoakrun"

Good story on CARB's dysfunctional ZEV credit market, with interesting report of current market values of credits...

TSLA financials report almost $600 Million in credit sales over the last three years, but don't show number of credits per vehicle, or revenue per credit...

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=19907&start=40