Close out 2012 or new spec. 2013

[edatoakrun]

...I hope used 2011-2013's are cheap in a few years. I have a daughter that will be turning 16 in 2016, and I think an early LEAF would make a brilliant teenager car.

Or a senior citizen's grocery getter.

Or a limited-range commuter car.

Or an errand car for multi-car households.

The lower a used car's price is, the greater relative cost maintenance and fueling become to TCO.

Which is why I expect that market demand will dictate that used BEVs will never depreciate over the longer term, at the plummeting rates we have become accustomed to accept with our ICEVs.

 

[evnow]

Which is why I expect that market demand will dictate that used BEVs will never depreciate over the longer term, at the plummeting rates we have become accustomed to accept with our ICEVs.

Looks like people are assuming Li batteries just keep going for decades. After a certain time there might be rapid capacity degradation ...

 

[edatoakrun]

Which is why I expect that market demand will dictate that used BEVs will never depreciate over the longer term, at the plummeting rates we have become accustomed to accept with our ICEVs.

Looks like people are assuming Li batteries just keep going for decades. After a certain time there might be rapid capacity degradation ...

Well, there might be, or there might not, based not only on the calendar, but also the number of charge cycles, or other use factors, such as battery exposure to high temperatures.

My basic assumption is that batteries are replaceable wear items. So the cost of battery replacement for a BEV will always be a large factor in its rate of depreciation.

I do think that once rates of capacity loss and battery and replacement costs are more transparent, it will probably be apparent that a three to ten year old BEV will have far lower operating costs than an ICEV of the same vintage. So for those buyers for whom the shorter range of a battery with some capacity loss is acceptable, such as those I mentioned above, and also for those buyers who expect to replace the batteries to restore (or possibly increase) "new" range, the utility of a used BEV will cause significant market demand, reflected in relatively high BEV resale prices.

 

[cdherman]

I hope used 2011-2013's are cheap in a few years. I have a daughter that will be turning 16 in 2016, and I think an early LEAF would make a brilliant teenager car.

Actually, compared to my Corolla and Prius, the Leaf drives very swiftly. Not too hard of competition, of course, but I am not sure that the Leaf qualifies as a kids car based on the usual criterion, you know -- safety, low insurance costs, not a "ticket magnet", mild performance, etc.... The Leaf handles well, but I've noted a tendency for it to be unstable during rapid accelleration while making a sharp turn. ICE vehicles don't tend to have the same accelleration characteristics as the EV motor in the Leaf, which I find quite interesting at times. Maybe, since I have decided that rapid accelleration does not really waste much electricity or battery life, I have just been romping on it too often....

Now, pratically, since most kids drive low miles each day, THAT makes a Leaf a great kids car.....

 

[adric22]

When can we expect the official word on pricing and features on the 2013 model? I mean, aren't they supposed to be on dealer lots within a few weeks?

 

[KJD]

When can we expect the official word on pricing and features on the 2013 model? I mean, aren't they supposed to be on dealer lots within a few weeks?

Can not find the quote right now, but I read here somewhere that they will announce MY2013 specs at the Detroit Auto show, mid January.

 

[cwerdna]

When can we expect the official word on pricing and features on the 2013 model? I mean, aren't they supposed to be on dealer lots within a few weeks?

Can not find the quote right now, but I read here somewhere that they will announce MY2013 specs at the Detroit Auto show, mid January.

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=247000#p247000" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[edatoakrun]

When can we expect the official word on pricing and features on the 2013 model? I mean, aren't they supposed to be on dealer lots within a few weeks?

Can not find the quote right now, but I read here somewhere that they will announce MY2013 specs at the Detroit Auto show, mid January.

And probably not on dealer lots until ~ the end of February or early March, according to the latest reports, IIRC.

 

[FormerFF]

Which is why I expect that market demand will dictate that used BEVs will never depreciate over the longer term, at the plummeting rates we have become accustomed to accept with our ICEVs.

Looks like people are assuming Li batteries just keep going for decades. After a certain time there might be rapid capacity degradation ...

Well, there might be, or there might not, based not only on the calendar, but also the number of charge cycles, or other use factors, such as battery exposure to high temperatures.

My basic assumption is that batteries are replaceable wear items. So the cost of battery replacement for a BEV will always be a large factor in its rate of depreciation.

I do think that once rates of capacity loss and battery and replacement costs are more transparent, it will probably be apparent that a three to ten year old BEV will have far lower operating costs than an ICEV of the same vintage. So for those buyers for whom the shorter range of a battery with some capacity loss is acceptable, such as those I mentioned above, and also for those buyers who expect to replace the batteries to restore (or possibly increase) "new" range, the utility of a used BEV will cause significant market demand, reflected in relatively high BEV resale prices.

Case in point, my 2002 Focus: In the past 13 months, I've needed coil packs/wires/plugs ($400 @ local Goodyear shop), an alternator, ($260, did it myself, would have been $500 if someone else did it), a fuel pump ($700 @ Ford, plus a $70 tow), and a cooling system leak and intake cleaning ($580 @ Goodyear). None of that stuff is particularly uncommon or major, but it adds up to over $2000 for the average person who isn't going to wrestle an alternator out of the car himself. Plus, sometime in the next year, it should get a water pump and a timing belt, which would run what, $800? If some supplier can rebuild the battery pack for $3000 - $5000, maintenance wise, that's very competitive with what you'd expect for an ICE car's powertrain over the first 120,000 or so miles.

Georgia Power's calculator estimates I'd save $1300 per year in fuel costs over my 25 mpg Focus, figuring 30 mi/day and gasoline at $3.50. http://www.georgiapower.com/pricing/residential/plugin-vehicles.cshtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. Adding all that up, the economics start to be compelling.

 

[edatoakrun]

="FormerFF"
...Case in point, my 2002 Focus: In the past 13 months, I've needed coil packs/wires/plugs ($400 @ local Goodyear shop), an alternator, ($260, did it myself, would have been $500 if someone else did it), a fuel pump ($700 @ Ford, plus a $70 tow), and a cooling system leak and intake cleaning ($580 @ Goodyear). None of that stuff is particularly uncommon or major, but it adds up to over $2000 for the average person who isn't going to wrestle an alternator out of the car himself. Plus, sometime in the next year, it should get a water pump and a timing belt, which would run what, $800? If some supplier can rebuild the battery pack for $3000 - $5000, maintenance wise, that's very competitive with what you'd expect for an ICE car's powertrain over the first 120,000 or so miles....

And after 150,000 to 250,000 miles, most ICEVs are nearly worthless, since it is only a matter of time before a major mechanical failure will occur, for which the cost of repair will exceed the depreciated value.

In addition to the far lower operating costs, due to the far simpler design and (we hope) more durable BEV drive-train, there is IMO every reason to expect higher BEV resale values than for ICEVs.

BTW, Whenever I drive or ride in an ICEV (a relatively rare event since I got my LEAF) I find myself thinking of the multiple components that could fail (only a few of which you mentioned above) and leave me waiting for a tow. My "ICEV anxiety" is particularly acute whenever I'm in an older ICEV.

In addition to the advantage BEVs have of being cleaner, cheaper, and safer, I think that the (probable) superior reliability of BEVs over time will eventually be reflected in higher-than-ICEV resale values, as well.

 

[N952JL]

I hope used 2011-2013's are cheap in a few years. I have a daughter that will be turning 16 in 2016, and I think an early LEAF would make a brilliant teenager car.

Actually, compared to my Corolla and Prius, the Leaf drives very swiftly. Not too hard of competition, of course, but I am not sure that the Leaf qualifies as a kids car based on the usual criterion, you know -- safety, low insurance costs, not a "ticket magnet", mild performance, etc.... The Leaf handles well, but I've noted a tendency for it to be unstable during rapid accelleration while making a sharp turn. ICE vehicles don't tend to have the same accelleration characteristics as the EV motor in the Leaf, which I find quite interesting at times. Maybe, since I have decided that rapid accelleration does not really waste much electricity or battery life, I have just been romping on it too often....

Now, pratically, since most kids drive low miles each day, THAT makes a Leaf a great kids car.....

I noticed the same accelleration characteristics on my Leaf. I think it has to do with the instant tork of a BEV teamed with FWD. High accelleration turns would be safer in a RWD vehicle. I'm not sure what you would call how the Leaf handles in a high accelleration turn. But it is very interesting.